{ "meta": { "date": "2026-10-25", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "status": "Advance conditional slate; final dressing lineups pending", "total": 227, "estimated": 224, "defaultSkaters": 180, "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "lineupsStatus": "Reported October 25 units, not final warmup lineups", "shotChartStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "zoneFitNote": "Displayed zone fit directly adjusts Trial SOG: 3× signed fit, capped ±25% before combining with allowance; final combined matchup capped ±15% per strength. Shooting rates use 100% current season. No subtraction of overall team defense. Player shares 60/40 where available, current-only without prior NHL sample. Goal estimator unchanged.", "teamStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "goalieStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "statisticsRefreshedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "goaliesCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "confirmedGoalies": 2, "teamDataRequirements": { "FLA": "2026-10-22", "CHI": "2026-10-23", "NYI": "2026-10-22", "DAL": "2026-10-22", "MTL": "2026-10-23", "WPG": "2026-10-22", "COL": "2026-10-23", "NSH": "2026-10-24", "MIN": "2026-10-24", "VAN": "2026-10-22" }, "statisticalCoverageNote": "Complete dated regular-season player, goalie, team and shot inputs through October24; 179 games. Minnesota and Nashville previous-night games included.", "playerGoalieH2HWindow": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 observed regular-season shot events; not established as career-complete.", "reportReviewCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "reportReviewNote": "Fresh chart contents and October25 official lineup/injury reports reviewed. Projected units are not final dressing confirmations. Conflicting goalie candidates remain unconfirmed.", "activeModel": { "version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "adoptedAt": "2026-10-15T04:26:05Z", "rateBasis": "100% current-season strength shooting rates and current measured deployment", "fiveAllowance": "Same-position league baseline; ten-game regression; factor capped 0.85–1.15", "ppAllowance": "Existing regressed opponent PK factor", "chart": "Direct displayed fit vs league ×3; factor capped 0.75–1.25 separately for 5v5 and PP; missing neutral", "combinedMatchup": "Position×chart for 5v5; PK×chart for PP; each final combined multiplier capped 0.85–1.15", "other": "Observed current-season remaining-state SOG/game", "goalProbability": "Separate retained historical hybrid estimator; unchanged", "calibration": "User-selected multiplier and caps; not empirically calibrated" }, "sogModelVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogModelDescription": "60% existing 50/50 position/chart + attempts SOG blend, plus 40% saved 2025–26 player SOG/game. Applied once; players without prior history retain the base blend. Model Goal remains separate.", "sogBlendUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T13:42:18Z", "performancePenaltyVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogBaseModelVersion": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "performancePenaltySettings": { "recentGames": 5, "recentWeight": 0.3, "playerShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 60, "5on4": 15 }, "defenseShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 100, "4on5": 30 }, "zonePriorShots": 30, "individualPenaltyCap": 0.1, "combinedStrengthPenaltyCap": 0.15 }, "pendingDataTeams": [], "performancePenaltyDescription": "Downward recent player attempts/min, recent positional/PK defensive allowance and volume-normalized recent zone shape; 15% combined cap per situation. Applied once before Goal probability. Provisional user-adopted settings, not independently calibrated.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-22", "factor": 0.98, "description": "User-selected 2% reduction to final away-player Model SOG. The locked Goal model derives expected goals from adjusted SOG, reducing goal intensity once by 2%; 1+ goal probability is recalculated. Independent of B2B status. No separate travel, fatigue or B2B penalty." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-25", "factor": 0.93, "topN": 30, "adopted": "User requested seven-percent reduction for top-30 SOG picks going forward.", "presentation": "Do not display model formulas, weights, adjustment explanations or conclusions. Preserve operational status, data coverage, source attribution and observed history.", "goalTreatment": "Recalculate Goal from final Model SOG through the existing locked estimator; no second reduction. Rebuild BTB after Goal.", "selection": "Freeze top30 membership from the full eligible unadjusted slate after performance and away adjustments, before filtering. Re-rank displayed final values normally.", "validation": "User-selected setting; one-week retrospective results do not establish out-of-sample accuracy.", "selectedIds": [ "8481557", "8477492", "8478398", "8478864", "8481540", "8480801", "8480027", "8478493", "8485366", "8477500", "8477933", "8480800", "8484144", "8476887", "8482740", "8480069", "8477935", "8482149", "8475172", "8483515", "8474600", "8479314", "8476399", "8478498", "8482113", "8480039", "8480865", "8478420", "8474564", "8474141" ], "selectedPlayers": [ { "id": "8481557", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8477492", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8478398", "team": "WPG" }, { "id": "8478864", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8481540", "team": "MTL" }, { "id": "8480801", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8480027", "team": "DAL" }, { "id": "8478493", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8485366", "team": "NYI" }, { "id": "8477500", "team": "NYI" }, { "id": "8477933", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8480800", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8484144", "team": "CHI" }, { "id": "8476887", "team": "NSH" }, { "id": "8482740", "team": "DAL" }, { "id": "8480069", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8477935", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8482149", "team": "WPG" }, { "id": "8475172", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8483515", "team": "MTL" }, { "id": "8474600", "team": "NSH" }, { "id": "8479314", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8476399", "team": "MIN" }, { "id": "8478498", "team": "VAN" }, { "id": "8482113", "team": "FLA" }, { "id": "8480039", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8480865", "team": "MTL" }, { "id": "8478420", "team": "DAL" }, { "id": "8474564", "team": "NSH" }, { "id": "8474141", "team": "CHI" } ], "selectionBasis": "Default eligible full-slate Model SOG ranking before this adjustment; filters never change membership." }, "goalModelVersion": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "goalModelDescription": "Current Model SOG × shot-weighted shooting percentage from current plus two prior seasons, regressed with 100 prior shots toward a forward/defense baseline excluding the player; confirmed-only goalie adjustment; Poisson 1+ goal probability. No additional PP or matchup boost.", "btb": { "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "date": "2026-10-25", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historyThrough": "2026-10-23", "comparisonPlayers": 180, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "notes": "Experimental ranking index, not probability. Individual metrics use all listed players; unit/exposure percentiles use comparable forward-line or defensive-pair groups. Raw ranks fixed before filtering. All players retained individually. Missing inputs neutral50; known no-PP role0 only where current PP-unit coverage is present. Goalie-neutral Goal baseline avoids counting the current goalie factor in both Goal model and Goalie groups. Correlated groups are capped, not claimed independent.", "samplePolicy": "Team H2H ratios use own observed SOG × regressed shooting baseline with 10-game prior, plus games/(games+10) confidence shrink. Player-goalie scoring uses50-shot prior plus shots/(shots+50) shrink. Exposure uses games/(games+5). iXG uses10-game .2 xG/game prior. These are provisional, not fitted.", "limits": "Exact-five PP production remains partial; player/team fallback PP rates shrink unit percentile toward50. Exposure xGA describes overall unit allowance, not defenseman-specific shot allowance. Shift coverage is partial. Prior previews used different defender normalization and forecast-based H2H denominators; this audited revision supersedes those scores." } }, "players": [ { "id": "8470613", "name": "Brent Burns", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 2.097560975609756, "currentTOI": 16.333333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 14.177272727272726, "ppShare": 0.003863298662704309, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 0.0196969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.482, "currentIXG": 0.04381818181818182, "priorTOI": 18.87621951219512, "priorPPTOI": 0.6254065040650406, "deploymentChange": -2.5428861788617887, "ppTOIChange": -0.605709534368071, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021132", "date": "20250325", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05169982725862854, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 360.0, "goalExpected": 0.08897606105721359, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08897606105721359, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08513252572756506, "goalProbability": 0.08513252572756506, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7210127339905912, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.001603077909587, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.177272727272726, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003863298662704309, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.019339321896528434, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.425684408412643, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.189795255118621, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.568902439024392, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11416878263357412, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.195970507684088, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.001603077909587, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021132", "date": "20250325", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020553", "date": "20241223", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7686973528713228, "adjustedSOG": 1.756135442847542, "reductionPct": 0.7102351345405489, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4585458468032764, "afterPlayerForm": 1.445806608606145, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4585458468032764, "afterRecentZones": 1.4502763407341583, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4502763407341583, "adjusted": 1.437609330096975, "playerFactor": 0.9912657951582035, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.195970507684088, "newChartFactor": 1.181416535899529, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.73333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9447095457733755, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.756135442847542, "adjustedSOG": 1.7210127339905912, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06486486486486487, "goalHistoryGoals": 12, "goalHistoryShots": 185, "goalExpected": 0.1111692559963256, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1111692559963256, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10521271200237237, "goalProbability": 0.10521271200237237, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781920538969129, "modelSOG": 1.7210127339905912, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 360.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05169982725862854, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.456541209914526, "btb": { "id": "8470613", "name": "Brent Burns", "score": 45.456541209914526, "components": { "Goal model": 28.977272727272727, "SOG model": 72.1590909090909, "Unit attack": 55.172413793103445, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 8.522727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 64.55745341614906, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.469833855842297, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 113 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 240, "fitPct": 6.532350256136269, "index": 106.53235025613627, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.85057471264366, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 182 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.568965517241379, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.06896551724138, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.844827586206897, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.16666666666666669, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.532350256136269, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8470613", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.3275181176229776, "trialBefore6040": 1.3275181176229776, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.3275181176229776, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.45, "attemptProjection": 1.6489098754247342, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 47.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9357.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.177272727272726, "projectedAttempts": 4.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.3400194232780517, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.019339321896528434, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4585458468032764, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5494549377123672, "baseline": 2.097560975609756, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 50, "beforeSOG": 1.7210127339905912, "adjustedSOG": 1.7210127339905912 } }, { "id": "8473419", "name": "Brad Marchand", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.6538461538461537, "currentTOI": 11.383333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.1330232558139535, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 1.1916666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.51, "currentIXG": 0.255, "priorTOI": 17.734935897435896, "priorPPTOI": 3.5730769230769233, "deploymentChange": -6.3516025641025635, "ppTOIChange": -2.3814102564102564, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020407", "date": "20241204", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 2, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14611574043385647, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.3941160539423189, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3941160539423189, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32572420066520225, "goalProbability": 0.32572420066520225, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.697286772609738, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.591474245115453, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1330232558139535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7868124031007753, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 1.0349871316563095, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 143, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1075, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.273894436519258, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.68783638320775, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.132692307692308, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6989188325021082, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2146481957867958, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.591474245115453, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020407", "date": "20241204", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 2, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.2 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1958041958041958, "goalHistoryGoals": 28, "goalHistoryShots": 143, "goalExpected": 0.4385856444377454, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4385856444377454, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3550520379528428, "goalProbability": 0.3550520379528428, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852578569595272, "modelSOG": 2.697286772609738, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 52, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 337.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1513353115727003, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14611574043385647, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.752333441438508, "adjustedSOG": 2.752333441438508, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8179916331667445, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8179916331667445, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8179916331667445, "afterRecentZones": 1.8179916331667445, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8179916331667445, "adjusted": 1.8179916331667445, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2146481957867958, "newChartFactor": 1.2146481957867958, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1587167116210157, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.3833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.752333441438508, "adjustedSOG": 2.697286772609738, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 138, "fitPct": 7.15493985955986, "index": 107.15493985955986, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.246376811594203, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.217391304347824, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.7536231884058, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.405797101449277, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.63768115942029, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.73913043478261, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.15493985955986, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8473419", "goals": 0, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020504", "date": "20221219" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2022020304", "date": "20221123" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020117", "date": "20211030" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.6502701073449835, "trialBefore6040": 2.6502701073449835, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.6502701073449835, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7249999999999996, "attemptProjection": 2.9109832663334894, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1126.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.383333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 3.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.48745696015740286, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 143.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7868124031007753, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8179916331667445, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.8179916331667445, "baseline": 2.6538461538461537, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.697286772609738, "adjustedSOG": 2.697286772609738 } }, { "id": "8473422", "name": "Nick Foligno", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.9056603773584906, "currentTOI": 9.950000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 8.622222222222222, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.216, "currentIXG": 0.072, "priorTOI": 12.661949685534593, "priorPPTOI": 0.9924528301886792, "deploymentChange": -2.7119496855345915, "ppTOIChange": -0.9924528301886792, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020216", "date": "20251105", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021065", "date": "20250315", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020283", "date": "20241116", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12886000553387802, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.11839118409021464, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11839118409021464, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11165152315471416, "goalProbability": 0.11165152315471416, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9187581794654581, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.958762886597938, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.622222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0299758500211624, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 828, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.426546985951862, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.7034220532319395, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.229874213836476, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.18809923049918334, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.958762886597938, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020216", "date": "20251105", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021065", "date": "20250315", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020283", "date": "20241116", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020100", "date": "20241022", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9375083463933246, "adjustedSOG": 0.9375083463933246, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9587403257498807, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9587403257498807, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9587403257498807, "afterRecentZones": 0.9587403257498807, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9587403257498807, "adjusted": 0.9587403257498807, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 25.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9375083463933246, "adjustedSOG": 0.9187581794654581, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12882215823392293, "goalHistoryGoals": 20, "goalHistoryShots": 155, "goalExpected": 0.13821145562876472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13821145562876472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12908548750222526, "goalProbability": 0.12908548750222526, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859301411138896, "modelSOG": 0.9187581794654581, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 53, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12903225806451613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12886000553387802, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": 17.729618985595224, "index": 117.72961898559522, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.037735849056602, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.35849056603774, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.301886792452832, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.528301886792454, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 22.264150943396224, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 17.729618985595224, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8473422", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.179841439862533, "trialBefore6040": 1.179841439862533, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.179841439862533, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 0.7674806514997614, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1552.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.622222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.5145379023883697, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9587403257498807, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9587403257498807, "baseline": 0.9056603773584906, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9187581794654581, "adjustedSOG": 0.9187581794654581 } }, { "id": "8473994", "name": "Jamie Benn", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 12.638333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.89, "ppShare": 0.15040058266569556, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 0.6883333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.194, "currentIXG": 0.11939999999999999, "priorTOI": 13.289166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.4158333333333333, "deploymentChange": -0.6508333333333329, "ppTOIChange": -0.7274999999999999, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13930530819104323, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.17433490803062568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17433490803062568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15998447740069077, "goalProbability": 0.15998447740069077, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.2514591891325697, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.56013456686291, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.89, "Current_PP_Share": 0.15040058266569556, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7842137047827142, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0308132832453814, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 413, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.6393185823379675, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.94408475573867, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.348888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2931134600171679, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080638621388748, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9121542578110388, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9857091196547976, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.56013456686291, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Justin Hryckowian", "Arttu Hyry", "Jamie Benn" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1927710843373494, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 83, "goalExpected": 0.2455812627927211, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2455812627927211, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2177502865847255, "goalProbability": 0.2177502865847255, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856309237515914, "modelSOG": 1.2514591891325697, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 60, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 222.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14414414414414414, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13930530819104323, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.258830453990496, "adjustedSOG": 1.2514591891325697, "reductionPct": 0.5855645479944771, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2215326271607756, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2137750107768674, "afterRecentDefense": 1.221490759997851, "afterRecentZones": 1.2173997507818823, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2173580252703595, "adjusted": 1.2096269206302241, "playerFactor": 0.9936492761540563, "defenseFactor": 0.9999657257104775, "oldChartFactor": 0.9121542578110388, "newChartFactor": 0.9062704487130702, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9583557227297153, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9998400746318384, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07651812949005143, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07651812949005143, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0761383945907258, "afterRecentZones": 0.07651812949005143, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07613839459072579, "adjusted": 0.07613839459072579, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.333333333333333, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2514591891325697, "adjustedSOG": 1.2514591891325697, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 51.728199404932, "btb": { "id": "8473994", "name": "Jamie Benn", "score": 51.728199404932, "components": { "Goal model": 61.36363636363637, "SOG model": 45.45454545454545, "Unit attack": 43.58974358974359, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 38.06818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.21827861579414, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.277546498909346, "unitPlayers": [ "Justin Hryckowian", "Arttu Hyry", "Jamie Benn" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 70 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": -2.9281914062987084, "index": 97.07180859370129, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.880382775119614, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.885167464114835, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.26794258373206, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.401913875598087, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.043062200956939, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.5215311004784695, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": -8.374519021530844, "index": 91.62548097846916, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 70, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.9281914062987084, "zonePPFit": -8.374519021530844, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8473994", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.3857145601580392, "trialBefore6040": 1.3857145601580392, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.3857145601580392, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3782618045679884, "attemptProjection": 1.2178397087336654, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7134.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.89, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.512818850378823, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 413.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7842137047827142, "projectedAttempts": 0.1139293517844137, "onNet": 0.5176527670748066, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2215326271607756, "ppAdjusted": 0.07651812949005143, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2980507566508268, "baseline": 1.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 97, "beforeSOG": 1.2514591891325697, "adjustedSOG": 1.2514591891325697 } }, { "id": "8474013", "name": "Ian Cole", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.7560975609756098, "currentTOI": 17.02, "currentFiveTOI": 14.135, "ppShare": 0.008494208494208495, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.03666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.34600000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.034600000000000006, "priorTOI": 18.26890243902439, "priorPPTOI": 0.0225609756097561, "deploymentChange": -1.2489024390243912, "ppTOIChange": 0.014105691056910567, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020834", "date": "20260127", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020478", "date": "20251210", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021153", "date": "20250328", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04181222947289785, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 134.0, "goalExpected": 0.024115449291379494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024908477108192814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023826995229485518, "goalProbability": 0.02460082070317332, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07738254736878031, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5767558820801655, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.546869472939512, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.135, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008494208494208495, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04434362934362935, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0229700460547688, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8671079010243594, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.802032520325204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004737435127014478, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0221767682204759, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9095099834133404, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9296799755097069, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.546869472939512, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": 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"positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5773048957073942, "adjustedSOG": 0.5767558820801655, "reductionPct": 0.09509942342615929, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4581097855285837, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4581097855285837, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4581097855285837, "afterRecentZones": 0.4571947628165359, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4571947628165359, "adjusted": 0.4571947628165359, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9095099834133404, "newChartFactor": 0.9065260810183213, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1112421383647797, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1142896007617493, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.13333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5767558820801655, "adjustedSOG": 0.5767558820801655, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04411764705882353, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 68, "goalExpected": 0.03092056173660946, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03092056173660946, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030447410409060745, "goalProbability": 0.030447410409060745, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784061696658098, "modelSOG": 0.5767558820801655, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 134.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.029850746268656716, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04181222947289785, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 30.93670326246895, "btb": { "id": "8474013", "name": "Ian Cole", "score": 30.93670326246895, "components": { "Goal model": 1.1363636363636365, "SOG model": 2.272727272727273, "Unit attack": 13.793103448275861, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 7.954545454545454, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 38.99733806566105, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9413092781649453, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 174 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": -3.016333886221986, "index": 96.98366611377801, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.2037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.351851851851851, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.592592592592593, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.888888888888891, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8518518518518516, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.016333886221986, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474013", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021091", "date": "20260319" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022021083", "date": "20230316" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5678198756288885, "trialBefore6040": 0.5678198756288885, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5678198756288885, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5578079853058241, "attemptProjection": 0.35841158575134335, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 8481.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.135, "projectedAttempts": 0.9, "onNet": 0.44037091623679686, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04434362934362935, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4581097855285837, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4581097855285837, "baseline": 0.7560975609756098, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 173, "beforeSOG": 0.5767558820801655, "adjustedSOG": 0.5767558820801655 } }, { "id": "8474141", "name": "Patrick Kane", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 2.5223880597014925, "currentTOI": 19.596666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 15.23, "ppShare": 0.7455598455598456, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 19, "currentPPTOI": 3.218333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.025, "currentIXG": 0.20249999999999999, "priorTOI": 17.695273631840795, "priorPPTOI": 3.0432835820895523, "deploymentChange": 1.9013930348258725, "ppTOIChange": 0.17504975124378053, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021303", "date": "20260415", "team": "DET", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.15 }, { "gameId": "2025021016", "date": "20260310", "team": "DET", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020983", "date": "20260306", "team": "DET", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020058", "date": "20251015", "team": "DET", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": 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"h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.147708325126001, "adjustedSOG": 2.1446328692439156, "reductionPct": 0.1431970927386006, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.222111235955302, "afterPlayerForm": 1.222111235955302, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2221112359553017, "afterRecentZones": 1.222111235955302, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.222111235955302, "adjusted": 1.222111235955302, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8547508574534933, "newChartFactor": 0.8542681398808157, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.23333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.039827036868457, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0242459966597897, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4758105994537047, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4758105994537047, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4706848396502288, "afterRecentZones": 0.47581059945370463, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4706848396502288, "adjusted": 0.4706848396502288, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.966666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3277996070726916, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1446328692439156, "adjustedSOG": 2.1446328692439156, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0918918918918919, "goalHistoryGoals": 17, "goalHistoryShots": 185, "goalExpected": 0.23117812427962936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23117812427962936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2064019056441201, "goalProbability": 0.2064019056441201, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12867044961624602, "modelSOG": 1.9945085683968415, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 363.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1046831955922865, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10986402799486955, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.84411385771764, "btb": { "id": "8474141", "name": "Patrick Kane", "score": 60.84411385771764, "components": { "Goal model": 72.72727272727273, "SOG model": 78.97727272727273, "Unit attack": 35.8974358974359, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 71.02272727272727, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 64.9616368286445, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2297114319422207, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 37 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 176, "fitPct": -4.841638084883556, "index": 95.15836191511644, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.493006993006993, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.503496503496503, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.79020979020979, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.15034965034965, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.81118881118881, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.251748251748252, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -19.847318192748574, "index": 80.15268180725143, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.971428571428572, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 59.65714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.841638084883556, "zonePPFit": -19.847318192748574, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474141", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.8404191869922535, "trialBefore6040": 1.8404191869922535, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.8404191869922535, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7161863811863811, "attemptProjection": 2.079657289631632, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9138.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.23, "projectedAttempts": 3.2, "onNet": 0.46278774302479153, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1931.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.892161284661285, "projectedAttempts": 1.2093717093717096, "onNet": 0.4900048520135856, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.222111235955302, "ppAdjusted": 0.4758105994537047, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8979218354090066, "baseline": 2.5223880597014925, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 30, "beforeSOG": 2.1446328692439156, "adjustedSOG": 1.9945085683968415 } }, { "id": "8474189", "name": "Lars Eller", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 0.9852941176470589, "currentTOI": 15.31060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 11.175757575757576, "ppShare": 0.13496806099320008, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0.9924242424242423, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.211, "currentIXG": 0.1100909090909091, "priorTOI": 11.447303921568627, "priorPPTOI": 0.4522058823529412, "deploymentChange": 3.863302139037433, "ppTOIChange": 0.5402183600713011, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020160", "date": "20251028", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021207", "date": "20250404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 8.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020503", "date": "20241217", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09952343495508964, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.09552594031609125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09552594031609125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09110521567012829, "goalProbability": 0.09110521567012829, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9598336347534401, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4403470715835143, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.992366412213741, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.175757575757576, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13496806099320008, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7983156310685674, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.993836554207879, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 655, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.466970387243736, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.804878048780488, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.006617647058825, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09152534251978602, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1618336885931635, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4403470715835143, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.992366412213741, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020160", "date": "20251028", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021207", "date": "20250404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 8.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020503", "date": "20241217", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lars Eller", "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 75, "goalExpected": 0.06950082514218182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06950082514218182, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06714063635737223, "goalProbability": 0.06714063635737223, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866561787425096, "modelSOG": 0.9598336347534401, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 180.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09952343495508964, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9962878762621467, "adjustedSOG": 0.9794220762790206, "reductionPct": 1.6928641193951766, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6812297692535194, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6617796769914486, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6812297692535194, "afterRecentZones": 0.6812297692535194, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6812297692535194, "adjusted": 0.6617796769914486, "playerFactor": 0.9714485579756975, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1618336885931635, "newChartFactor": 1.1618336885931635, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.516666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8149263213136487, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1587167116210157, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.14056909760050393, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13328071465538904, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1391229233160858, "afterRecentZones": 0.14056909760050393, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1391229233160858, "adjusted": 0.13190952322403135, "playerFactor": 0.9481508875739645, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.4830383480825958, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9794220762790206, "adjustedSOG": 0.9598336347534401, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 42.473319491340085, "btb": { "id": "8474189", "name": "Lars Eller", "score": 42.473319491340085, "components": { "Goal model": 33.52272727272727, "SOG model": 25.0, "Unit attack": 41.02564102564103, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 53.94736842105263, "Shot quality": 28.977272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.491638795986624, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.266913883867472, "unitPlayers": [ "Lars Eller", "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 128 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": 5.394456286438782, "index": 105.39445628643878, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.499999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.500000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": 9.284142343683087, "index": 109.28414234368309, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 92, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.394456286438782, "zonePPFit": 9.284142343683087, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8474189", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020160", "date": "20251028" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021207", "date": "20250404" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020335", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020152", "date": "20211104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8115117772043337, "trialBefore6040": 0.8115117772043337, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8115117772043337, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8727401981904352, "attemptProjection": 1.1344938991539752, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 7376.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.175757575757576, "projectedAttempts": 1.7272727272727273, "onNet": 0.4340376076526507, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 655.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7983156310685674, "projectedAttempts": 0.2193844482325834, "onNet": 0.5169866249210403, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6812297692535194, "ppAdjusted": 0.14056909760050393, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0036170486722051, "baseline": 0.9852941176470589, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 133, "beforeSOG": 0.9598336347534401, "adjustedSOG": 0.9598336347534401 } }, { "id": "8474564", "name": "Steven Stamkos", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 18.845, "currentFiveTOI": 14.436666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7337729954876779, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 19, "currentPPTOI": 3.5233333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.56, "currentIXG": 0.356, "priorTOI": 17.827439024390245, "priorPPTOI": 3.008943089430894, "deploymentChange": 1.0175609756097543, "ppTOIChange": 0.5143902439024393, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 7, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1740265888689366, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 399.0, "goalExpected": 0.3544318428352469, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3544318428352469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2984280668842056, "goalProbability": 0.2984280668842056, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.0366533938223523, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.987300854306165, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.811731315042573, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.436666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7337729954876779, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.365961261346545, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9785521780458758, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2114, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.280099598920515, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.077006214536611, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.63191056910569, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7451627841423885, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9228114880288792, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0275522055615216, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9299970412409558, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9482369798415845, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9236225941791069, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.987300854306165, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.811731315042573, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 7, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Matthew Wood" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2528934663714386, "adjustedSOG": 2.189949885830486, "reductionPct": 2.7938995554162016, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2856302179619696, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2856302179619696, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2262407669945843, "afterRecentZones": 1.2854312351900363, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2260509761951264, "adjusted": 1.2260509761951264, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9538051843075595, "oldChartFactor": 1.0275522055615216, "newChartFactor": 1.0271928277714484, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2456706024825916, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7837643119632204, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.49439547802294836, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4490687522215377, "afterRecentDefense": 0.49439547802294836, "afterRecentZones": 0.49439547802294836, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.49439547802294836, "adjusted": 0.4490687522215377, "playerFactor": 0.9083188908145581, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9299970412409558, "newChartFactor": 0.9299970412409558, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.3634175691937425, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.189949885830486, "adjustedSOG": 2.189949885830486, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1737443857589963, "goalHistoryGoals": 73, "goalHistoryShots": 394, "goalExpected": 0.29113446380751873, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29113446380751873, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2525848290287237, "goalProbability": 0.2525848290287237, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283926784559937, "modelSOG": 2.0366533938223523, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 399.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18546365914786966, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1740265888689366, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.07105004072967, "btb": { "id": "8474564", "name": "Steven Stamkos", "score": 69.07105004072967, "components": { "Goal model": 94.31818181818181, "SOG model": 80.68181818181819, "Unit attack": 74.35897435897436, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 90.3409090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.18012422360248, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.990950213063452, "unitPlayers": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Matthew Wood" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 17, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 10 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 183, "fitPct": 0.9184068520507225, "index": 100.91840685205072, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.19016393442623, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.28743169398907, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.46338797814207, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.408743169398907, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.338797814207652, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360657, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -2.3334319586348045, "index": 97.6665680413652, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.235294117647059, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.7647058823529416, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.30252100840336, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 59.69747899159664, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9184068520507225, "zonePPFit": -2.3334319586348045, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474564", "goals": 0, "sog": 17, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 21, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020837", "date": "20230211" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021021173", "date": "20220412" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.8931981987688036, "trialBefore6040": 1.8931981987688036, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.8931981987688036, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7908317217449563, "attemptProjection": 2.36921967022488, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8662.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.436666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.45981308411214955, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2114.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.365961261346545, "projectedAttempts": 1.3374680508661767, "onNet": 0.5038841807909604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2856302179619696, "ppAdjusted": 0.49439547802294836, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.080025695984918, "baseline": 2.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 29, "beforeSOG": 2.189949885830486, "adjustedSOG": 2.0366533938223523 } }, { "id": "8474567", "name": "Zach Bogosian", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 0.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 17.1030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 14.246969696969698, "ppShare": 0.012221423436376708, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 0.051515151515151514, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.29100000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.026454545454545456, "priorTOI": 14.544308943089431, "priorPPTOI": 0.036585365853658534, "deploymentChange": 2.5587213599408702, "ppTOIChange": 0.01492978566149298, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052816198858276764, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.053854755171529496, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053854755171529496, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.052430273890379166, "goalProbability": 0.052430273890379166, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0196635944218462, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.97713495692864, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.246969696969698, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012221423436376708, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05544622174295072, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9860699137505905, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2782, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2376041729120453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.560162601626017, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006934011325551829, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0554223470576145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1066747904793117, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.97713495692864, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0525853793787996, "adjustedSOG": 1.0404730555324961, "reductionPct": 1.1507212700837433, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1755949966734616, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1599936071218602, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1755949966734616, "afterRecentZones": 1.1709475026511755, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1709475026511755, "adjusted": 1.1554077902629558, "playerFactor": 0.9867289418585924, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1066747904793117, "newChartFactor": 1.0991061069733534, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9194289625501125, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2188668790691233, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0404730555324961, "adjustedSOG": 1.0196635944218462, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05325584868484831, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 121, "goalExpected": 0.07700434573998718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07700434573998718, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07411417006132226, "goalProbability": 0.07411417006132226, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778012345395718, "modelSOG": 1.0196635944218462, "historyGames": 133, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 41, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 123.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04878048780487805, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052816198858276764, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.788608130999435, "btb": { "id": "8474567", "name": "Zach Bogosian", "score": 39.788608130999435, "components": { "Goal model": 15.340909090909092, "SOG model": 28.40909090909091, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.1363636363636365, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 34.57556935817805, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.612347070296702, "unitPlayers": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 144 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": 3.5558263493103937, "index": 103.5558263493104, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.83673469387756, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.081632653061224, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5558263493103937, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474567", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.425828290375521, "trialBefore6040": 1.425828290375521, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.425828290375521, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4500000000000002, "attemptProjection": 1.0830081751651046, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9403.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.246969696969698, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.4645335782812819, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 34.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05544622174295072, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1755949966734616, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2665040875825524, "baseline": 0.7317073170731707, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 41, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 127, "beforeSOG": 1.0196635944218462, "adjustedSOG": 1.0196635944218462 } }, { "id": "8474568", "name": "Luke Schenn", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.625, "priorSOG": 0.7, "currentTOI": 13.264583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.708333333333334, "ppShare": 0.00857551214864221, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.198, "currentIXG": 0.02475, "priorTOI": 13.664666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.0016666666666666666, "deploymentChange": -0.4000833333333347, "ppTOIChange": 0.035833333333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020744", "date": "20260115", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020594", "date": "20251227", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020157", "date": "20251028", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020733", "date": "20250118", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020596", "date": "20241231", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 13.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": 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"ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6534544703888927, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.202846975088968, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.708333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00857551214864221, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04536088613625535, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2099, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.291898842691813, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.665, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00034773758534413295, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0186339658834007, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9310675232152172, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.948417003677952, "Combined_PP_Factor": 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"opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020596", "date": "20241231", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020384", "date": "20241130", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Guillaume Brisebois", "Luke Schenn" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.025, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 40, "goalExpected": 0.017224564069732284, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.017224564069732284, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.017077069324412116, "goalProbability": 0.017077069324412116, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786394401743719, "modelSOG": 0.6534544703888927, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 50, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 117.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017094017094017096, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03588200185135354, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6673230361263582, "adjustedSOG": 0.6534544703888927, "reductionPct": 2.078238721979242, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6455383935439305, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6226528186345521, "afterRecentDefense": 0.645301286318006, "afterRecentZones": 0.6455383935439305, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.645301286318006, "adjusted": 0.6224241173148212, "playerFactor": 0.9645480808914568, "defenseFactor": 0.9996326984912194, "oldChartFactor": 0.9310675232152172, "newChartFactor": 0.9310675232152172, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7658762605614609, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6534544703888927, "adjustedSOG": 0.6534544703888927, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 29.628997595358165, "btb": { "id": "8474568", "name": "Luke Schenn", "score": 29.628997595358165, "components": { "Goal model": 0.5681818181818182, "SOG model": 5.681818181818182, "Unit attack": 27.586206896551722, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 10.227272727272727, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 54.309006211180126, "Goalie H2H": 48.75 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0604700605899913, "unitPlayers": [ "Guillaume Brisebois", "Luke Schenn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 177 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -2.297749226159425, "index": 97.70225077384057, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.3076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.7692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3076923076923084, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.297749226159425, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474568", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020264", "date": "20241114" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020166", "date": "20241031" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020069", "date": "20241017" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5990714302886979, "trialBefore6040": 0.5990714302886979, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5990714302886979, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.59276062729872, "attemptProjection": 0.698316159789141, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5620.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.708333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.37851339481774265, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04536088613625535, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6455383935439305, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6455383935439305, "baseline": 0.7, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 167, "beforeSOG": 0.6534544703888927, "adjustedSOG": 0.6534544703888927 } }, { "id": "8474574", "name": "Tyler Myers", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 1.2054794520547945, "currentTOI": 14.913333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 12.963333333333333, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.213, "currentIXG": 0.0213, "priorTOI": 19.517123287671232, "priorPPTOI": 0.08835616438356164, "deploymentChange": -4.6037899543379, "ppTOIChange": -0.08835616438356164, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020778", "date": "20260119", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020545", "date": "20251219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021139", "date": "20250326", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 22.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020265", "date": "20241114", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04581773885138143, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.03411336066663088, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03411336066663088, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03353806034230856, "goalProbability": 0.03353806034230856, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7445448318015881, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8513756749807149, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.963333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.167596518634234, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.368949771689497, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018291970139831484, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8891060055062587, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8513756749807149, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020778", "date": "20260119", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020545", "date": "20251219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021139", "date": "20250326", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 22.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020265", "date": "20241114", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.01098901098901099, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 91, "goalExpected": 0.011747845905958107, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.011747845905958107, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.011679109396190721, "goalProbability": 0.011679109396190721, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783149139535418, "modelSOG": 0.7445448318015881, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03910614525139665, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04581773885138143, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7564882107640369, "adjustedSOG": 0.7445448318015881, "reductionPct": 1.578792477200175, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4571607165701985, "afterPlayerForm": 0.454316293190469, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4399926900338311, "afterRecentZones": 0.4571607165701985, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4399926900338311, "adjusted": 0.4372550849661172, "playerFactor": 0.9937780669321951, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.8891060055062587, "newChartFactor": 0.8833618297463416, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.56666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.959684135846263, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7445448318015881, "adjustedSOG": 0.7445448318015881, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 37.994022469284836, "btb": { "id": "8474574", "name": "Tyler Myers", "score": 37.994022469284836, "components": { "Goal model": 5.113636363636363, "SOG model": 10.227272727272727, "Unit attack": 62.06896551724138, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.840909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 66.45962732919254, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.641858091686868, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 152 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -3.696466483124709, "index": 96.30353351687529, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.8750000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.875, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.8125, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9375000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.696466483124709, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474574", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020545", "date": "20251219" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020628", "date": "20240109" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020826", "date": "20230209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020598", "date": "20220209" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.376208863019918, "trialBefore6040": 0.376208863019918, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.376208863019918, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.34, "attemptProjection": 0.574321433140397, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 7778.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.963333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.7000000000000002, "onNet": 0.35793856802941815, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4571607165701985, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4571607165701985, "baseline": 1.2054794520547945, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 159, "beforeSOG": 0.7445448318015881, "adjustedSOG": 0.7445448318015881 } }, { "id": "8474600", "name": "Roman Josi", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 2.661764705882353, "currentTOI": 25.746666666666663, "currentFiveTOI": 19.546666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7552933009371746, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 23, "currentPPTOI": 3.6266666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.596, "currentIXG": 0.15960000000000002, "priorTOI": 24.877450980392158, "priorPPTOI": 3.0936274509803923, "deploymentChange": 0.8692156862745044, "ppTOIChange": 0.5330392156862742, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 26.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 21.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06391271726250537, "goalHistoryGoals": 23, "goalHistoryShots": 350, "goalExpected": 0.14822192620571922, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14822192620571922, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13776025988665758, "goalProbability": 0.13776025988665758, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057695856786933654, "modelSOG": 2.2490850827302977, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 354.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06497175141242938, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06336913145086645, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.6558305775342, "btb": { "id": "8474600", "name": "Roman Josi", "score": 58.6558305775342, "components": { "Goal model": 53.40909090909091, "SOG model": 88.63636363636364, "Unit attack": 93.10344827586206, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 52.27272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.52173913043478, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.220978568192797, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 46 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 168, "fitPct": 0.8802451077070685, "index": 100.88024510770707, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 91 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.0476190476190474, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.333333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.523809523809526, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.952380952380956, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4761904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -3.1442687572432817, "index": 96.85573124275672, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.93617021276596, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.957446808510639, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8802451077070685, "zonePPFit": -3.1442687572432817, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474600", "goals": 0, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020515", "date": "20231223" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.3117082825085244, "trialBefore6040": 2.3117082825085244, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.3117082825085244, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.247036302359964, "attemptProjection": 2.26617981802694, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 11728.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.546666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.3972036417688592, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2176.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.464679141291429, "projectedAttempts": 0.7642674576378152, "onNet": 0.43063812921125644, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1294886641552924, "ppAdjusted": 0.32711939603815965, "other": 0.8 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.256608060193452, "baseline": 2.661764705882353, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 21, "beforeSOG": 2.418371056699245, "adjustedSOG": 2.2490850827302977 } }, { "id": "8474716", "name": "Jared Spurgeon", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.139240506329114, "currentTOI": 21.908333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 16.408333333333335, "ppShare": 0.21953727506426735, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.8895833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.474, "currentIXG": 0.05925, "priorTOI": 19.591772151898734, "priorPPTOI": 1.440506329113924, "deploymentChange": 2.3165611814346008, "ppTOIChange": -0.5509229957805907, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 21.75 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; 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no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06500687635267506, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 204, "goalExpected": 0.08282834185454982, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08282834185454982, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0794908534482324, "goalProbability": 0.0794908534482324, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057710436162141034, "modelSOG": 1.4173142487838333, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 79, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 209.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06698564593301436, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.063983959923023, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.42347354176637, "btb": { "id": "8474716", "name": "Jared Spurgeon", "score": 45.42347354176637, "components": { "Goal model": 30.113636363636363, "SOG model": 55.68181818181818, "Unit attack": 86.20689655172414, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 21.59090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 35.40372670807454, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0283046010054333, "unitPlayers": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 114 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 112, "fitPct": 7.66335017308316, "index": 107.66335017308316, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.07142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.785714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.78571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": 6.6946338947271755, "index": 106.69463389472718, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 29.090909090909093, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.63636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.66335017308316, "zonePPFit": 6.6946338947271755, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474716", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.6781271455330582, "trialBefore6040": 1.6781271455330582, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.6781271455330582, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.70625, "attemptProjection": 1.5965725720197945, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7876.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.408333333333335, "projectedAttempts": 3.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4186741088915002, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 427.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9959979291630963, "projectedAttempts": 0.1399528706083976, "onNet": 0.4113139508677034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.493177350200913, "ppAdjusted": 0.03323393580898453, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6514112860098973, "baseline": 1.139240506329114, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 79, "beforeSOG": 1.4173142487838333, "adjustedSOG": 1.4173142487838333 } }, { "id": "8475151", "name": "Kyle Palmieri", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 2.84, "currentTOI": 16.303333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 12.118333333333334, "ppShare": 0.7629804450438301, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 25, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 3.771666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.048, "currentIXG": 0.2048, "priorTOI": 18.87666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 3.4453333333333336, "deploymentChange": -2.573333333333334, "ppTOIChange": 0.32633333333333336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12530838712176565, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 258.0, "goalExpected": 0.2531960782228302, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2531960782228302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22368435169328843, "goalProbability": 0.22368435169328843, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.0205836499738243, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.446293494704992, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.544851966416262, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.118333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7629804450438301, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.335636378961564, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2263, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.609515400197372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.808049535603715, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.835333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7516824236834173, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.446293494704992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.544851966416262, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 88, "goalExpected": 0.2464199554858643, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2464199554858643, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21840607866112824, "goalProbability": 0.21840607866112824, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860402589592104, "modelSOG": 2.0205836499738243, "historyGames": 117, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 25, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 258.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12403100775193798, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12530838712176565, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.086021960500191, "adjustedSOG": 2.061820050993698, "reductionPct": 1.1601943778525525, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9408910233078962, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9408910233078962, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9013120110874302, "afterRecentZones": 0.9408910233078962, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9013120110874302, "adjusted": 0.9013120110874302, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9127566867989646, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.91666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1030808729139923, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5917844166330237, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5424789108590888, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5417214072354002, "afterRecentDefense": 0.542478910859089, "afterRecentZones": 0.5424789108590888, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5424789108590888, "adjusted": 0.5417214072354002, "playerFactor": 0.9986036256736893, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9916739702015775, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.061820050993698, "adjustedSOG": 2.0205836499738243, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 67.427473603818, "btb": { "id": "8475151", "name": "Kyle Palmieri", "score": 67.427473603818, "components": { "Goal model": 83.52272727272727, "SOG model": 80.11363636363636, "Unit attack": 94.87179487179488, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.8421052631579, "Shot quality": 71.5909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.245102723363594, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6967708115746656, "unitPlayers": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 16 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 46, "fitPct": -9.435988776518755, "index": 90.56401122348124, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.405797101449275, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.82608695652174, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.710144927536234, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.420289855072465, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.304347826086953, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": -12.648030366704646, "index": 87.35196963329535, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.076923076923078, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 82.82051282051282, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.0769230769230775, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.435988776518755, "zonePPFit": -12.648030366704646, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475151", "goals": 2, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021021121", "date": "20220405" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5814367545404593, "trialBefore6040": 1.5814367545404593, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5814367545404593, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.62125927174646, "attemptProjection": 1.5454805965875105, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7271.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.118333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.2, "onNet": 0.4992860406671237, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2263.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.335636378961564, "projectedAttempts": 1.1495279838165882, "onNet": 0.5233381853469189, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9408910233078962, "ppAdjusted": 0.5424789108590888, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5833699341669853, "baseline": 2.84, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 37, "beforeSOG": 2.0205836499738243, "adjustedSOG": 2.0205836499738243 } }, { "id": "8475158", "name": "Ryan O'Reilly", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": 1.9012345679012346, "currentTOI": 20.918333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.518333333333334, "ppShare": 0.6851787573759112, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 21, "currentPPTOI": 3.29, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.327, "currentIXG": 0.3327, "priorTOI": 20.39485596707819, "priorPPTOI": 2.686008230452675, "deploymentChange": 0.5234773662551433, "ppTOIChange": 0.6039917695473251, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 3, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14754040466990737, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.29128458918243094, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29128458918243094, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25269702658941967, "goalProbability": 0.25269702658941967, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.9742699624155358, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3725175066008495, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.118541033434651, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.518333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6851787573759112, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1430499195355153, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0151429547304047, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1974, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.221064488876372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.445993565190746, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.613168724279836, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6651881779565487, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07204919882645, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.026970727797891, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9409841849171298, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1009631459539453, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9345344290503933, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.3725175066008495, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.118541033434651, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 3, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Matthew Wood" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.975074728065982, "adjustedSOG": 1.9742699624155358, "reductionPct": 0.04074608616121411, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3066797649083424, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3066797649083424, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3066797649083424, "afterRecentZones": 1.3066797649083424, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3066797649083424, "adjusted": 1.3066797649083424, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.026970727797891, "newChartFactor": 1.026970727797891, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.6334866585040315, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0796753277044362, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.41762173660080437, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4162804605167276, "afterRecentDefense": 0.41762173660080437, "afterRecentZones": 0.41762173660080437, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.41762173660080437, "adjusted": 0.4162804605167276, "playerFactor": 0.9967882991556092, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9409841849171298, "newChartFactor": 0.9409841849171298, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9765831134564644, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9742699624155358, "adjustedSOG": 1.9742699624155358, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14856296773851296, "goalHistoryGoals": 50, "goalHistoryShots": 323, "goalExpected": 0.33868743676663177, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33868743676663177, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28729482028591397, "goalProbability": 0.28729482028591397, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852212389380532, "modelSOG": 1.9742699624155358, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 326.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15337423312883436, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14754040466990737, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.55952171398395, "btb": { "id": "8475158", "name": "Ryan O'Reilly", "score": 66.55952171398395, "components": { "Goal model": 86.93181818181819, "SOG model": 78.4090909090909, "Unit attack": 74.35897435897436, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 86.93181818181819, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.31538992408557, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.990950213063452, "unitPlayers": [ "Steven Stamkos", "Ryan O'Reilly", "Matthew Wood" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 20 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": 0.8990242599297034, "index": 100.8990242599297, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.0382165605095546, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.626550452564533, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.72544418370768, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 83 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.569225611800201, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.863560174321153, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.177003017096882, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": -1.9671938360956744, "index": 98.03280616390433, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.6984126984127, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 73.96825396825398, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8990242599297034, "zonePPFit": -1.9671938360956744, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475158", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020515", "date": "20231223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020238", "date": "20211116" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.154713559446416, "trialBefore6040": 2.154713559446416, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.154713559446416, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1776484973434735, "attemptProjection": 1.8709545056748198, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8711.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.518333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.1, "onNet": 0.5417265103780579, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1974.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1430499195355153, "projectedAttempts": 0.7642674576378152, "onNet": 0.539258857800962, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3066797649083424, "ppAdjusted": 0.41762173660080437, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0243015015091466, "baseline": 1.9012345679012346, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 39, "beforeSOG": 1.9742699624155358, "adjustedSOG": 1.9742699624155358 } }, { "id": "8475170", "name": "Brayden Schenn", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": 1.4875, "currentTOI": 16.435, "currentFiveTOI": 12.453333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7154416722859069, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 21, "currentPPTOI": 3.5366666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.6639999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.36639999999999995, "priorTOI": 16.76875, "priorPPTOI": 2.1258333333333335, "deploymentChange": -0.333750000000002, "ppTOIChange": 1.4108333333333332, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020899", "date": "20260204", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020836", "date": "20260127", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020804", "date": "20260123", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020083", "date": "20251018", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13209913378170915, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 285.0, "goalExpected": 0.2257334532935239, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2257334532935239, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20206924086131492, "goalProbability": 0.20206924086131492, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7088185730766665, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.781584582441114, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.26861451460886, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.453333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7154416722859069, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.065497302764666, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9681039069626026, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2122, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.489392441639419, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.525676205409644, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.698958333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4638017276548949, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.056723933649289, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7634143185880662, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.781584582441114, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.26861451460886, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 5, "sogPerGame": 1.8 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020899", "date": "20260204", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020836", "date": "20260127", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020804", "date": "20260123", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020083", "date": "20251018", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020964", "date": "20250302", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020783", "date": "20250125", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020483", "date": "20241214", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.916666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.145985401459854, "goalHistoryGoals": 20, "goalHistoryShots": 137, "goalExpected": 0.22677733769574654, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22677733769574654, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20290175373563266, "goalProbability": 0.20290175373563266, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858166505958016, "modelSOG": 1.7088185730766665, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 285.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13209913378170915, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7463798426776105, "adjustedSOG": 1.7436924215068026, "reductionPct": 0.15388526053343732, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0094870138908427, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0050079786061632, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0094870138908427, "afterRecentZones": 1.0094870138908427, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0094870138908427, "adjusted": 1.0050079786061632, "playerFactor": 0.9955630580452778, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7634143185880662, "newChartFactor": 0.7614302928797418, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9719358720041625, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0520611851253758, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9094793905718412, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9094793905718412, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9094793905718412, "afterRecentZones": 0.9094793905718412, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9094793905718412, "adjusted": 0.9094793905718412, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0162835249042146, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7436924215068026, "adjustedSOG": 1.7088185730766665, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 65.54690851673118, "btb": { "id": "8475170", "name": "Brayden Schenn", "score": 65.54690851673118, "components": { "Goal model": 73.86363636363636, "SOG model": 71.02272727272727, "Unit attack": 92.3076923076923, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.8421052631579, "Shot quality": 92.04545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.690131124913734, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4508720549148446, "unitPlayers": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 18, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 26 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -7.886189380397795, "index": 92.1138106196022, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.625, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.31250000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.375, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.312500000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.4375, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9375000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -14.313396882031498, "index": 85.6866031179685, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.886189380397795, "zonePPFit": -14.313396882031498, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475170", "goals": 2, "sog": 18, "shootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 21, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020836", "date": "20260127" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020804", "date": "20260123" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020083", "date": "20251018" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020964", "date": "20250302" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020483", "date": "20241214" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023021305", "date": "20240417" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020013", "date": "20231012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022021307", "date": "20230413" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.8790942637225894, "trialBefore6040": 1.8790942637225894, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.8790942637225894, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8993889076196897, "attemptProjection": 1.9385439013056782, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7472.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.453333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.3, "onNet": 0.5039047497119447, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2122.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.065497302764666, "projectedAttempts": 2.0691503708698584, "onNet": 0.5477733466267862, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0094870138908427, "ppAdjusted": 0.9094793905718412, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.918966404462684, "baseline": 1.4875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 52, "beforeSOG": 1.7088185730766665, "adjustedSOG": 1.7088185730766665 } }, { "id": "8475172", "name": "Nazem Kadri", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.7662337662337664, "currentTOI": 19.86060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 15.353030303030302, "ppShare": 0.6564635958395245, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 28, "currentPPTOI": 3.346969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.951, "currentIXG": 0.3591818181818182, "priorTOI": 19.033549783549784, "priorPPTOI": 3.0664502164502165, "deploymentChange": 0.8270562770562755, "ppTOIChange": 0.2805194805194806, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020654", "date": "20260103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22 }, { "gameId": "2025020416", "date": "20251202", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020183", "date": "20251101", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020627", "date": "20250104", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020451", "date": "20241210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 18.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10463313264622735, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 520.0, "goalExpected": 0.24314240038063067, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24314240038063067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21584015883922256, "goalProbability": 0.21584015883922256, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.3237610710052405, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.329122668508832, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.926663648709823, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.353030303030302, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6564635958395245, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.286197082263947, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2209, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.098928083047833, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.926801722312415, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.72056277056277, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5597845336481699, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0352762290927522, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1506217526831093, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.329122668508832, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.926663648709823, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020654", "date": "20260103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22 }, { "gameId": "2025020416", "date": "20251202", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020183", "date": "20251101", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020627", "date": "20250104", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020451", "date": "20241210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020269", "date": "20241115", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.583256583200982, "adjustedSOG": 2.5496610390665353, "reductionPct": 1.3005113140103886, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.538950821005627, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4941428914361148, "afterRecentDefense": 1.537310459525595, "afterRecentZones": 1.538950821005627, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.537310459525595, "adjusted": 1.4925502905476902, "playerFactor": 0.9708841056140881, "defenseFactor": 0.9989341040287694, "oldChartFactor": 1.1506217526831093, "newChartFactor": 1.1506217526831093, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8290956696054166, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9950752922127964, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7405027916886506, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7309107485891753, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7405027916886506, "afterRecentZones": 0.7405027916886506, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7405027916886506, "adjusted": 0.7309107485891753, "playerFactor": 0.9870465807730426, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9220632081097199, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5496610390665353, "adjustedSOG": 2.4986678182852047, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 240, "goalExpected": 0.16775324729333807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16775324729333807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15443754623094244, "goalProbability": 0.15443754623094244, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12872542240660959, "modelSOG": 2.3237610710052405, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 520.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10463313264622735, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.01861787144968, "btb": { "id": "8475172", "name": "Nazem Kadri", "score": 66.01861787144968, "components": { "Goal model": 80.68181818181819, "SOG model": 89.77272727272727, "Unit attack": 79.48717948717949, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 92.61363636363636, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.048136645962735, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.996802618805426, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 23 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 226, "fitPct": 5.020725089436979, "index": 105.02072508943698, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.668543845534995, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.357200321802091, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.503620273531777, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.802091713596138, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.54465004022526, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1238938053097347, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": -8.603658120903347, "index": 91.39634187909665, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.1333333333333337, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.563636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.99393939393939, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.654545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.12121212121212, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.020725089436979, "zonePPFit": -8.603658120903347, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475172", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020627", "date": "20250104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023021039", "date": "20240312" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.5052346088239537, "trialBefore6040": 2.5052346088239537, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.5052346088239537, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.584566121842496, "attemptProjection": 2.337977467182423, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 10133.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.353030303030302, "projectedAttempts": 2.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.49953805230669274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 2209.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.286197082263947, "projectedAttempts": 1.3388761312981223, "onNet": 0.5734925192685508, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.538950821005627, "ppAdjusted": 0.7405027916886506, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4612717945124594, "baseline": 2.7662337662337664, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 19, "beforeSOG": 2.4986678182852047, "adjustedSOG": 2.3237610710052405 } }, { "id": "8475179", "name": "Dmitry Kulikov", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.45454545454545453, "priorSOG": 0.7894736842105263, "currentTOI": 15.254545454545456, "currentFiveTOI": 13.81060606060606, "ppShare": 0.000618174325159695, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.004545454545454546, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.277, "currentIXG": 0.025181818181818184, "priorTOI": 18.032456140350877, "priorPPTOI": 0.035964912280701755, "deploymentChange": -2.7779106858054217, "ppTOIChange": -0.03141945773524721, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05313821378090816, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.03566358017069141, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03566358017069141, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03503512779970215, "goalProbability": 0.03503512779970215, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6711475157545633, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.5798134942402633, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.81060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.000618174325159695, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.003656407470543057, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7605849811031384, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.014912280701754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007034988342938524, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0483904949036018, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.075726072238692, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.5798134942402633, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 20, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05777431335687102, "modelSOG": 0.6711475157545633, "historyGames": 100, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 19, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.047619047619047616, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05313821378090816, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6894161453682643, "adjustedSOG": 0.684844403831187, "reductionPct": 0.6631323574000758, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.531802028564332, "afterPlayerForm": 0.531802028564332, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5263094007530453, "afterRecentZones": 0.5296528901323129, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5241824593358699, "adjusted": 0.5241824593358699, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.0483904949036018, "newChartFactor": 1.0368706015089988, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.01666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1930784434351236, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.684844403831187, "adjustedSOG": 0.6711475157545633, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 29.04339382506549, "btb": { "id": "8475179", "name": "Dmitry Kulikov", "score": 29.04339382506549, "components": { "Goal model": 7.386363636363637, "SOG model": 6.818181818181818, "Unit attack": 6.896551724137931, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.5681818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.19159101767797, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7814716593687416, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 179 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": 1.6130164967867273, "index": 101.61301649678673, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.33333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.6130164967867273, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475179", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020192", "date": "20221106" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.47505682577490804, "trialBefore6040": 0.47505682577490804, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.47505682577490804, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.482082208086797, "attemptProjection": 0.7633400308600489, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 9115.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.81060606060606, "projectedAttempts": 1.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.3475635370720437, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.003656407470543057, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.531802028564332, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.622711119473423, "baseline": 0.7894736842105263, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 165, "beforeSOG": 0.6711475157545633, "adjustedSOG": 0.6711475157545633 } }, { "id": "8475184", "name": "Chris Kreider", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.8533333333333333, "currentTOI": 14.636666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.18, "ppShare": 0.5479289940828402, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 2.315, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.077, "currentIXG": 0.2077, "priorTOI": 17.04888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 3.1017777777777775, "deploymentChange": -2.4122222222222227, "ppTOIChange": -0.7867777777777776, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021022", "date": "20260310", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19 }, { "gameId": "2025020251", "date": "20251109", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021031", "date": "20250311", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020247", "date": "20241112", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14463419921080103, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.20328646656705943, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20328646656705943, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18395556151001552, "goalProbability": 0.18395556151001552, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.4055214304521024, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7567084078711988, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.591792656587473, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.18, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5479289940828402, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.333264299802761, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0070006503158677, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1389, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.496665496665496, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.769164636767446, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.662222222222221, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5923559033438394, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787068004459308, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1395379907873324, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8863201006852655, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9299265335930464, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7567084078711988, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.591792656587473, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021022", "date": "20260310", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020933", "date": "20260227", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19 }, { "gameId": "2025020251", "date": "20251109", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021031", "date": "20250311", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020247", "date": "20241112", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.443148015700749, "adjustedSOG": 1.4342055412776555, "reductionPct": 0.6196505365910987, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8209652567855192, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8209652567855192, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8209652567855192, "afterRecentZones": 0.8204125115448326, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8204125115448326, "adjusted": 0.8204125115448326, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1395379907873324, "newChartFactor": 1.137973085940154, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0811604584527221, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1365130016905047, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.24872588049350705, "afterPlayerForm": 0.23437450169570417, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24872588049350705, "afterRecentZones": 0.24872588049350705, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24872588049350705, "adjusted": 0.23437450169570417, "playerFactor": 0.9423004201680673, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8863201006852655, "newChartFactor": 0.8863201006852655, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.4313664596273292, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4342055412776555, "adjustedSOG": 1.4055214304521024, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1564625850340136, "goalHistoryGoals": 23, "goalHistoryShots": 147, "goalExpected": 0.2803784661203184, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2803784661203184, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24450224296358258, "goalProbability": 0.24450224296358258, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285367968432042, "modelSOG": 1.4055214304521024, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 300.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14463419921080103, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.25697900497672, "btb": { "id": "8475184", "name": "Chris Kreider", "score": 58.25697900497672, "components": { "Goal model": 68.18181818181819, "SOG model": 53.40909090909091, "Unit attack": 76.92307692307692, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 32.89473684210526, "Shot quality": 72.72727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.971014492753625, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9958866458978637, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 48 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": 4.651266359577747, "index": 104.65126635957775, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.908230842005677, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.232734153263955, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.709555345316936, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.420056764427624, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.464522232734154, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.26490066225165565, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -3.78932997715782, "index": 96.21067002284218, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.703703703703702, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.629629629629626, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9629629629629632, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.222222222222221, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.651266359577747, "zonePPFit": -3.78932997715782, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475184", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021069", "date": "20250316" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2024020332", "date": "20241123" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020511", "date": "20231222" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020110", "date": "20231026" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9490517333465984, "trialBefore6040": 0.9490517333465984, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9490517333465984, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9987263232082931, "attemptProjection": 1.3406559513497593, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 6708.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.18, "projectedAttempts": 1.5999999999999999, "onNet": 0.4815916171056358, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1389.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.333264299802761, "projectedAttempts": 0.7055226824457593, "onNet": 0.5131331152740609, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8209652567855192, "ppAdjusted": 0.24872588049350705, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1696911372790262, "baseline": 1.8533333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 83, "beforeSOG": 1.4055214304521024, "adjustedSOG": 1.4055214304521024 } }, { "id": "8475220", "name": "Marcus Foligno", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.1607142857142858, "currentTOI": 12.1625, "currentFiveTOI": 11.375, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 56, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.768, "currentIXG": 0.192, "priorTOI": 12.845238095238097, "priorPPTOI": 0.14017857142857143, "deploymentChange": -0.682738095238097, "ppTOIChange": -0.14017857142857143, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13406962406485232, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.15473520312391176, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15473520312391176, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14335801642530732, "goalProbability": 0.14335801642530732, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1541406504508662, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.274725274725275, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.375, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0299758500211624, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1042, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.489419758700945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 30.573248407643312, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.125297619047618, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.026567994584867336, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.274725274725275, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1776945412763942, "adjustedSOG": 1.1776945412763942, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.189014711651133, "afterPlayerForm": 1.189014711651133, "afterRecentDefense": 1.189014711651133, "afterRecentZones": 1.189014711651133, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.189014711651133, "adjusted": 1.189014711651133, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1776945412763942, "adjustedSOG": 1.1541406504508662, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1340324593743203, "goalHistoryGoals": 22, "goalHistoryShots": 160, "goalExpected": 0.14380151338552802, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14380151338552802, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13394036775537924, "goalProbability": 0.13394036775537924, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128581022568616, "modelSOG": 1.1541406504508662, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 56, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13406962406485232, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": 14.464507110462932, "index": 114.46450711046293, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.176470588235293, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.058823529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.470588235294116, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.176470588235295, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.464507110462932, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475220", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.179841439862533, "trialBefore6040": 1.179841439862533, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.179841439862533, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.2280294233022657, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2730.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.375, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.48788214794867735, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.189014711651133, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.189014711651133, "baseline": 1.1607142857142858, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1541406504508662, "adjustedSOG": 1.1541406504508662 } }, { "id": "8475231", "name": "Casey Cizikas", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.9876543209876543, "currentTOI": 12.205, "currentFiveTOI": 10.643333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0077545515846257585, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.03833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.244, "currentIXG": 0.1244, "priorTOI": 11.767901234567901, "priorPPTOI": 0.04074074074074074, "deploymentChange": 0.4370987654320988, "ppTOIChange": -0.0024074074074073998, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 7.416666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10829641696892109, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 185.0, "goalExpected": 0.08937721873858918, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08937721873858918, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0854994582384917, "goalProbability": 0.0854994582384917, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8253017157921178, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.254932665205136, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.643333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0077545515846257585, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04406523937963587, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.048163338808703, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 23, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.141493073266276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.084979423868313, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008888573551467997, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.056723933649289, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.254932665205136, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 7.416666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle MacLean", "Casey Cizikas", "Mitchell Chaffee" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12643678160919541, "goalHistoryGoals": 11, "goalHistoryShots": 87, "goalExpected": 0.1248518878625504, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1248518878625504, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11737237923263438, "goalProbability": 0.11737237923263438, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864478836142512, "modelSOG": 0.8253017157921178, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 185.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0972972972972973, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10829641696892109, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8421446079511403, "adjustedSOG": 0.8421446079511405, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3451381325934646, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3451381325934646, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3451381325934646, "afterRecentZones": 0.3451381325934646, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3451381325934646, "adjusted": 0.3451381325934646, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2146226415094339, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0520611851253758, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8421446079511405, "adjustedSOG": 0.8253017157921178, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 41.979056140546824, "btb": { "id": "8475231", "name": "Casey Cizikas", "score": 41.979056140546824, "components": { "Goal model": 29.545454545454547, "SOG model": 14.772727272727273, "Unit attack": 51.282051282051285, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 40.34090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.12688553682342, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.393148694985664, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle MacLean", "Casey Cizikas", "Mitchell Chaffee" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 133 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": -8.389617025171745, "index": 91.61038297482825, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.293103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.241379310344828, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.77586206896552, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.672413793103448, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.948275862068964, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0689655172413794, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.389617025171745, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475231", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020284", "date": "20221119" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021021121", "date": "20220405" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020985", "date": "20220319" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7709155953974336, "trialBefore6040": 0.7709155953974336, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7709155953974336, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.74, "attemptProjection": 0.7502762651869291, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 6386.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.643333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.8, "onNet": 0.5079755558076225, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 23.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04406523937963587, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3451381325934646, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7451381325934645, "baseline": 0.9876543209876543, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 151, "beforeSOG": 0.8253017157921178, "adjustedSOG": 0.8253017157921178 } }, { "id": "8475462", "name": "Radko Gudas", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.42857142857142855, "priorSOG": 1.125, "currentTOI": 13.69047619047619, "currentFiveTOI": 12.535714285714286, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 56, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.064, "currentIXG": 0.009142857142857144, "priorTOI": 16.183035714285715, "priorPPTOI": 0.03660714285714285, "deploymentChange": -2.4925595238095255, "ppTOIChange": -0.03660714285714285, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020460", "date": "20251207", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020403", "date": "20251130", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020091", "date": "20251019", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020959", "date": "20250301", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020298", "date": "20241119", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.034467244541282194, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.028578483254883703, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028578483254883703, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028173980916140238, "goalProbability": 0.028173980916140238, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8291490554359404, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.051282051282051, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.535714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3470, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.47306840067096, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.371726190476192, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00699097702334928, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0552327462363935, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0827467274118112, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.051282051282051, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020460", "date": "20251207", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020403", "date": "20251130", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020091", "date": "20251019", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020959", "date": "20250301", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020298", "date": "20241119", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020191", "date": "20241103", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.030303030303030304, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 66, "goalExpected": 0.03060972604723399, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03060972604723399, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030145992018119697, "goalProbability": 0.030145992018119697, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057891473580269595, "modelSOG": 0.8291490554359404, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 56, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.01935483870967742, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.034467244541282194, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8566571238004127, "adjustedSOG": 0.8460704647305515, "reductionPct": 1.2358105449348677, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6777618730006878, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6699539126913041, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6707617234842911, "afterRecentZones": 0.6747801155642892, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6678107626280896, "adjusted": 0.6601174412175858, "playerFactor": 0.9884797882258924, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.0552327462363935, "newChartFactor": 1.0416714728194785, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.13333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9262250511770728, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8460704647305515, "adjustedSOG": 0.8291490554359404, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 30.883931005276583, "btb": { "id": "8475462", "name": "Radko Gudas", "score": 30.883931005276583, "components": { "Goal model": 3.409090909090909, "SOG model": 15.340909090909092, "Unit attack": 6.896551724137931, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 9.659090909090908, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.86335403726708, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7814716593687416, "unitPlayers": [ "Dmitry Kulikov", "Radko Gudas" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 175 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": 1.8410915412131175, "index": 101.84109154121312, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 85.96938775510205, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 82 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.357142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0408163265306123, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.8410915412131175, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475462", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020403", "date": "20251130" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020725", "date": "20250118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.4527455446632846, "trialBefore6040": 0.4527455446632846, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.4527455446632846, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.46403431174791915, "attemptProjection": 0.8914894342534564, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 5265.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.535714285714286, "projectedAttempts": 2.2857142857142856, "onNet": 0.3482103645147124, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6777618730006878, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6777618730006878, "baseline": 1.125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 150, "beforeSOG": 0.8291490554359404, "adjustedSOG": 0.8291490554359404 } }, { "id": "8475752", "name": "Tyler Pitlick", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.8125, "currentTOI": 7.541666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 7.541666666666667, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.8099999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.13499999999999998, "priorTOI": 7.772916666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.029166666666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.2312499999999993, "ppTOIChange": -0.029166666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 6.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.1 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11090638324108722, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.11995560208363173, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11995560208363173, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11304018498931719, "goalProbability": 0.11304018498931719, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.081593309402881, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.607734806629834, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.541666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0299758500211624, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1723, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.607734806629834, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 6.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1156891826694204, "adjustedSOG": 1.1036666422478376, "reductionPct": 1.0775886876322915, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.317815304449034, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3010118320775734, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3145394388657095, "afterRecentZones": 1.317815304449034, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3145394388657095, "adjusted": 1.2977777370797294, "playerFactor": 0.9872489928484433, "defenseFactor": 0.9975141694194438, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 37.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8886343179772522, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9882704424884781, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1036666422478376, "adjustedSOG": 1.081593309402881, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11424136151454238, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 30, "goalExpected": 0.12256792685669338, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12256792685669338, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11535418830674142, "goalProbability": 0.11535418830674142, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861455354305687, "modelSOG": 1.081593309402881, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2025": 32, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 34.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11090638324108722, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 46.74291288421723, "btb": { "id": "8475752", "name": "Tyler Pitlick", "score": 46.74291288421723, "components": { "Goal model": 41.47727272727273, "SOG model": 31.818181818181817, "Unit attack": 48.717948717948715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 51.13636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.807453416149066, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3547524746849784, "unitPlayers": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 101 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": 10.824673216339718, "index": 110.82467321633972, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.19290465631929, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.235033259423505, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.14412416851441, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.308203991130823, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.19290465631929, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.9268292682926833, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.824673216339718, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475752", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5731219198167106, "trialBefore6040": 1.5731219198167106, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5731219198167106, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5333333333333332, "attemptProjection": 1.1022972755647347, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2715.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.541666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5374597824421633, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.317815304449034, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.317815304449034, "baseline": 0.8125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 121, "beforeSOG": 1.081593309402881, "adjustedSOG": 1.081593309402881 } }, { "id": "8475754", "name": "Brock Nelson", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.2962962962962963, "currentTOI": 18.490909090909092, "currentFiveTOI": 14.22272727272727, "ppShare": 0.22852897473997028, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 19, "currentPPTOI": 1.165151515151515, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.0149999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.27409090909090905, "priorTOI": 19.65329218106996, "priorPPTOI": 3.0987654320987654, "deploymentChange": -1.1623830901608692, "ppTOIChange": -1.9336139169472504, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.150300763837441, "goalHistoryGoals": 62.0, "goalHistoryShots": 398.0, "goalExpected": 0.2928027755869936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2928027755869936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25383071101384924, "goalProbability": 0.25383071101384924, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.9481123589210547, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.369127516778524, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.044213263979193, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.22272727272727, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22852897473997028, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1439952721869513, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 769, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1591979545148705, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.888446215139442, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.761111111111113, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5656837189095253, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.08853672985782, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1008696099079582, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.369127516778524, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.044213263979193, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020949", "date": "20250301", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.996028267203733, "adjustedSOG": 1.9878697540010764, "reductionPct": 0.4087373579175879, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4379609220870182, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4379609220870182, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4379609220870182, "afterRecentZones": 1.4379609220870182, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4379609220870182, "adjusted": 1.4379609220870182, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1008696099079582, "newChartFactor": 1.1008696099079582, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1410078173074731, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1912634322115694, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.17607047723682423, "afterPlayerForm": 0.16247295523239622, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17607047723682423, "afterRecentZones": 0.17607047723682423, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17607047723682423, "adjusted": 0.16247295523239622, "playerFactor": 0.9227722772277228, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9878697540010764, "adjustedSOG": 1.9481123589210547, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17560975609756097, "goalHistoryGoals": 36, "goalHistoryShots": 205, "goalExpected": 0.3424016512852631, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3424016512852631, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2899370502698792, "goalProbability": 0.2899370502698792, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849780391045623, "modelSOG": 1.9481123589210547, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 62.0, "historyShots": 398.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15577889447236182, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.150300763837441, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.37102433226575, "btb": { "id": "8475754", "name": "Brock Nelson", "score": 66.37102433226575, "components": { "Goal model": 87.5, "SOG model": 76.70454545454545, "Unit attack": 79.48717948717949, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 42.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 81.25, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 65.0103519668737, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.996802618805426, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 21 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": 3.362320330265277, "index": 103.36232033026528, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.538083538083538, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.81572481572482, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.395577395577394, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.835380835380836, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.800982800982801, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.614250614250613, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -18.815396442166175, "index": 81.18460355783382, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.400000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.362320330265277, "zonePPFit": -18.815396442166175, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475754", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7656656639615576, "trialBefore6040": 1.7656656639615576, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7656656639615576, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8730634877752261, "attemptProjection": 1.7186356745088223, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9387.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.22272727272727, "projectedAttempts": 2.636363636363636, "onNet": 0.49952635742838114, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 769.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1439952721869513, "projectedAttempts": 0.26777522625962447, "onNet": 0.5523964858953924, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4379609220870182, "ppAdjusted": 0.17607047723682423, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7958495811420243, "baseline": 2.2962962962962963, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 42, "beforeSOG": 1.9481123589210547, "adjustedSOG": 1.9481123589210547 } }, { "id": "8475768", "name": "Jaden Schwartz", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.64, "currentTOI": 13.95909090909091, "currentFiveTOI": 11.374242424242423, "ppShare": 0.4035661218424963, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 2.0575757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5550000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.14136363636363639, "priorTOI": 16.140666666666664, "priorPPTOI": 1.5556666666666665, "deploymentChange": -2.1815757575757537, "ppTOIChange": 0.5019090909090911, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020053", "date": "20241015", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13449696477884626, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 293.0, "goalExpected": 0.19685480191030255, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19685480191030255, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17869012271931894, "goalProbability": 0.17869012271931894, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.4636375046380523, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.713733848408152, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.952871870397644, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.374242424242423, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4035661218424963, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.020215318114278, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9861472997848124, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1358, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.017627393374531, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.485108206556674, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.161333333333335, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37369906354057814, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9889074693422519, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1328428676942632, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0606940658963473, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1202767734539534, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9477989372159188, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.713733848408152, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.952871870397644, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020053", "date": "20241015", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. 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Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.557158358049683, "adjustedSOG": 1.493507657793931, "reductionPct": 4.087618958387351, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.308572933398051, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2622051073085543, "afterRecentDefense": 1.253749037605779, "afterRecentZones": 1.308572933398051, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.253749037605779, "adjusted": 1.20932383527134, "playerFactor": 0.9645661125138126, "defenseFactor": 0.9581040579450871, "oldChartFactor": 1.1328428676942632, "newChartFactor": 1.1328428676942632, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.38333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7583881599717133, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8064301980128095, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.19335766335142088, "afterPlayerForm": 0.19335766335142088, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1865222610518781, "afterRecentZones": 0.19335766335142088, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1865222610518781, "adjusted": 0.1865222610518781, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1.0606940658963473, "newChartFactor": 1.0606940658963473, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0987055016181229, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.493507657793931, "adjustedSOG": 1.4636375046380523, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5482869049354637, "trialBefore6040": 1.5482869049354637, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5482869049354637, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.679603877439383, "attemptProjection": 1.3242573160595605, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7507.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.374242424242423, "projectedAttempts": 2.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.5313020099859173, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1358.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.020215318114278, "projectedAttempts": 0.26777522625962447, "onNet": 0.5895959918985183, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.308572933398051, "ppAdjusted": 0.19335766335142088, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5019305967494718, "baseline": 1.64, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 75, "beforeSOG": 1.4636375046380523, "adjustedSOG": 1.4636375046380523 } }, { "id": "8475794", "name": "Tyler Seguin", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 1.1481481481481481, "currentTOI": 14.99, "currentFiveTOI": 12.905000000000001, "ppShare": 0.27785870356882736, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 27, "currentTotalSOG": 27, "currentPPTOI": 1.2716666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.064, "currentIXG": 0.3064, "priorTOI": 16.66172839506173, "priorPPTOI": 1.8555555555555556, "deploymentChange": -1.671728395061729, "ppTOIChange": -0.5838888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15125135037498774, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.29582010961979155, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29582010961979155, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2560787597411932, "goalProbability": 0.2560787597411932, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.9558179737660772, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.974041069352964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 33.027522935779814, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.905000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27785870356882736, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4488015901917939, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0169073928345027, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 763, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.085111181272834, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.778443113772456, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.685802469135801, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.38414712829403214, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080638621388748, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9076310031853455, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8811623644235921, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9808211160118981, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.974041069352964, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 33.027522935779814, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16363636363636364, "goalHistoryGoals": 9, "goalHistoryShots": 55, "goalExpected": 0.19858276946149234, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19858276946149234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18010809407965866, "goalProbability": 0.18010809407965866, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128552754764975, "modelSOG": 1.9558179737660772, "historyGames": 57, "seasonGames": { "2024": 20, "2025": 27, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 104.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17307692307692307, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15125135037498774, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9926398990704008, "adjustedSOG": 1.9558179737660772, "reductionPct": 1.8478966180242362, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4248366595987254, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3686155239668905, "afterRecentDefense": 1.424787824334532, "afterRecentZones": 1.4236315768800902, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4235827829192509, "adjusted": 1.367411122692465, "playerFactor": 0.9605420486249502, "defenseFactor": 0.9999657257104775, "oldChartFactor": 0.9076310031853455, "newChartFactor": 0.906144125957031, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7478991596638656, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9998400746318384, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6307977400865107, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6307977400865107, "afterRecentDefense": 0.626853401485565, "afterRecentZones": 0.6307977400865107, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.626853401485565, "adjusted": 0.626853401485565, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.8811623644235921, "newChartFactor": 0.8771963773994197, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2845117845117846, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9558179737660772, "adjustedSOG": 1.9558179737660772, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 61.76658105433849, "btb": { "id": "8475794", "name": "Tyler Seguin", "score": 61.76658105433849, "components": { "Goal model": 88.06818181818181, "SOG model": 77.27272727272727, "Unit attack": 28.205128205128204, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 82.95454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.26086956521739, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0749467705564966, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 35 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -3.0789665604884817, "index": 96.92103343951152, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.514285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.657142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.31428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.914285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.885714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -3.961254519213597, "index": 96.0387454807864, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.833333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.0789665604884817, "zonePPFit": -3.961254519213597, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475794", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.6926495037224796, "trialBefore6040": 2.6926495037224796, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.6926495037224796, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.649111317135109, "attemptProjection": 2.462157482235363, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7743.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.905000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.9000000000000004, "onNet": 0.5036081864426831, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 763.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4488015901917939, "projectedAttempts": 1.025364166059723, "onNet": 0.597433687637652, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4248366595987254, "ppAdjusted": 0.6307977400865107, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.555634399685236, "baseline": 1.1481481481481481, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 27, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 41, "beforeSOG": 1.9558179737660772, "adjustedSOG": 1.9558179737660772 } }, { "id": "8475799", "name": "Nino Niederreiter", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "priorSOG": 1.360655737704918, "currentTOI": 12.090476190476192, "currentFiveTOI": 11.071428571428571, "ppShare": 0.23672055427251731, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0.9761904761904762, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.377, "currentIXG": 0.1967142857142857, "priorTOI": 13.769125683060109, "priorPPTOI": 1.5112021857923499, "deploymentChange": -1.6786494925839168, "ppTOIChange": -0.5350117096018737, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11071571078664082, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.12504943442436656, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12504943442436656, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11754672206350057, "goalProbability": 0.11754672206350057, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1294642245069277, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.967741935483871, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.071428571428571, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23672055427251731, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2765155889145496, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9993791211877663, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 410, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1732, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.745161069694276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.508768757909962, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.984426229508196, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3311353627556789, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9689520624303234, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9550480649324941, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9253957922364295, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.967741935483871, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nino Niederreiter", "Morgan Barron", "Cole Koepke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 92, "goalExpected": 0.10156554486658612, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10156554486658612, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09657803727044868, "goalProbability": 0.09657803727044868, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864773089031162, "modelSOG": 1.1294642245069277, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 61, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10330578512396695, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11071571078664082, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1594780859805323, "adjustedSOG": 1.1294642245069277, "reductionPct": 2.58856651423669, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0253596514976084, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0253596514976084, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9804516341231786, "afterRecentZones": 1.0200102781332427, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9753365490416008, "adjusted": 0.9753365490416008, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.956202667708995, "oldChartFactor": 0.9550480649324941, "newChartFactor": 0.9464601814052034, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.63333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3684520306062389, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7934609801617474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1294642245069277, "adjustedSOG": 1.1294642245069277, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 44.510293972127904, "btb": { "id": "8475799", "name": "Nino Niederreiter", "score": 44.510293972127904, "components": { "Goal model": 46.02272727272727, "SOG model": 36.36363636363637, "Unit attack": 7.6923076923076925, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 40.78947368421053, "Shot quality": 68.18181818181819, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.474711623779946, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9071628967013199, "unitPlayers": [ "Nino Niederreiter", "Morgan Barron", "Cole Koepke" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 118 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -1.498397835583532, "index": 98.50160216441647, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.86868686868687, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.86868686868687, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 57.35353535353536, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0606060606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424248, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.424242424242424, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.498397835583532, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475799", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.232907191513759, "trialBefore6040": 1.232907191513759, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.232907191513759, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1897945900182665, "attemptProjection": 0.8609247129769505, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 4650.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.071428571428571, "projectedAttempts": 1.7142857142857144, "onNet": 0.5449201085318058, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 410.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2765155889145496, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0253596514976084, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0253596514976084, "baseline": 1.360655737704918, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 113, "beforeSOG": 1.1294642245069277, "adjustedSOG": 1.1294642245069277 } }, { "id": "8475848", "name": "Brendan Gallagher", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.5714285714285714, "currentTOI": 10.48030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 10.086363636363636, "ppShare": 0.004671338004671338, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.021212121212121213, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.172, "currentIXG": 0.19745454545454547, "priorTOI": 12.35064935064935, "priorPPTOI": 1.338095238095238, "deploymentChange": -1.8703463203463198, "ppTOIChange": -1.3168831168831168, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020879", "date": "20260202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020780", "date": "20260120", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020813", "date": "20250130", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.783333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3333333333333335, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10754327302253298, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 280.0, "goalExpected": 0.13305025677437185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13598284697328022, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12457890483725184, "goalProbability": 0.12714239548987608, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2563490652624234, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.237178793568004, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.948625506985128, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.086363636363636, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004671338004671338, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024709431653876096, 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"games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020879", "date": "20260202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020780", "date": "20260120", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020813", "date": "20250130", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020263", "date": "20241114", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Marco Rossi", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05343511450381679, "goalHistoryGoals": 7, "goalHistoryShots": 131, "goalExpected": 0.07400375536441493, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07400375536441493, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07133179365279661, "goalProbability": 0.07133179365279661, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286644374856253, "modelSOG": 1.237178793568004, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 280.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10754327302253298, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2431445176342881, "adjustedSOG": 1.237178793568004, "reductionPct": 0.4798898262960538, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0242884817714326, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0143456083276259, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0242884817714326, "afterRecentZones": 1.0242884817714326, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0242884817714326, "adjusted": 1.0143456083276259, "playerFactor": 0.9902928973421518, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9297779574695976, "newChartFactor": 0.9261321374462627, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 50.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9293128720571958, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1814765849576092, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.237178793568004, "adjustedSOG": 1.237178793568004, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 48.34951966416497, "btb": { "id": "8475848", "name": "Brendan Gallagher", "score": 48.34951966416497, "components": { "Goal model": 50.0, "SOG model": 44.31818181818182, "Unit attack": 25.641025641025642, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 68.75, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 59.316770186335404, "Goalie H2H": 53.68421052631579 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.052331477726153, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Marco Rossi", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 93 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": -2.3407347510134144, "index": 97.65926524898659, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.88793103448276, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.663793103448274, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.189655172413794, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.275862068965516, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.275862068965516, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.706896551724137, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.3407347510134144, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475848", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020512", "date": "20251214" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020122", "date": "20251023" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020290", "date": "20241118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8993347269983523, "trialBefore6040": 0.8993347269983523, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8993347269983523, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 1.1985769635428651, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6657.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.086363636363636, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.4331156015425651, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 14.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.024709431653876096, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0242884817714326, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0242884817714326, "baseline": 1.5714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 99, "beforeSOG": 1.237178793568004, "adjustedSOG": 1.237178793568004 } }, { "id": "8476278", "name": "Colin Blackwell", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 0.8714285714285714, "currentTOI": 9.977083333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.045833333333333, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.757, "currentIXG": 0.094625, "priorTOI": 11.892619047619048, "priorPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.9155357142857152, "ppTOIChange": -0.008333333333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 8.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 13.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09813577926022435, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.09324856641977156, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09324856641977156, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08903296366311338, "goalProbability": 0.08903296366311338, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9501994799726052, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.461999078765546, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.045833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0308132832453814, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1866, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.929215873248735, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.737857142857143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017252116540151143, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080638621388748, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9289548519511883, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0038644905449206, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.461999078765546, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 8.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 13.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "David Perron", "Radek Faksa", "Colin Blackwell" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 70, "goalExpected": 0.05380635030539043, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05380635030539043, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.052384405794518835, "goalProbability": 0.052384405794518835, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865636567632274, "modelSOG": 0.9501994799726052, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 70, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 133.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07518796992481203, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09813577926022435, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9502201010533966, "adjustedSOG": 0.9501994799726052, "reductionPct": 0.0021701372943550012, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0027477874699469, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0027477874699469, "afterRecentDefense": 1.002713419001961, "afterRecentZones": 1.0027477874699469, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.002713419001961, "adjusted": 1.002713419001961, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9999657257104775, "oldChartFactor": 0.9289548519511883, "newChartFactor": 0.9289548519511883, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 44.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3814826598790964, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9998400746318384, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9501994799726052, "adjustedSOG": 0.9501994799726052, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 39.406907145649384, "btb": { "id": "8476278", "name": "Colin Blackwell", "score": 39.406907145649384, "components": { "Goal model": 32.38636363636363, "SOG model": 24.431818181818183, "Unit attack": 30.76923076923077, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 29.545454545454547, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.84383318544809, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.131406589240417, "unitPlayers": [ "David Perron", "Radek Faksa", "Colin Blackwell" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 146 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": -2.368171601627054, "index": 97.63182839837295, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.55335968379446, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.1699604743083, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.474308300395254, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.6521739130434785, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.976284584980238, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1739130434782608, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.368171601627054, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476278", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2023020705", "date": "20240119" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020723", "date": "20220417" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1068473288391851, "trialBefore6040": 1.1068473288391851, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1068473288391851, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1293475518630354, "attemptProjection": 0.8761480230768582, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 4342.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.045833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.7499999999999998, "onNet": 0.5304467957505141, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0027477874699469, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0027477874699469, "baseline": 0.8714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 134, "beforeSOG": 0.9501994799726052, "adjustedSOG": 0.9501994799726052 } }, { "id": "8476292", "name": "Ondrej Palat", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.0375, "currentTOI": 13.061666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.943333333333333, "ppShare": 0.018880647336480108, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 10, "currentPPTOI": 0.09333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.4520000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.14520000000000002, "priorTOI": 12.819791666666665, "priorPPTOI": 0.7170833333333333, "deploymentChange": 0.24187500000000206, "ppTOIChange": -0.6237499999999999, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12062767518316052, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.10775279969477465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10775279969477465, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10215048232537927, "goalProbability": 0.10215048232537927, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8932676480016984, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.023723137036003, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.943333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018880647336480108, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10728927848954821, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9681039069626026, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 56, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.815183009489381, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.275421266705404, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.526041666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.15644899515759977, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7548917629320093, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.023723137036003, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07526881720430108, "goalHistoryGoals": 7, "goalHistoryShots": 93, "goalExpected": 0.07643466416467698, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07643466416467698, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07358655969248146, "goalProbability": 0.07358655969248146, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286139812793339, "modelSOG": 0.8932676480016984, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1164021164021164, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12062767518316052, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9448412654203632, "adjustedSOG": 0.9114976000017331, "reductionPct": 3.529022983960739, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8830687757006053, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8274960000028885, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8830687757006053, "afterRecentZones": 0.8830687757006053, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8830687757006053, "adjusted": 0.8274960000028885, "playerFactor": 0.9370685758268072, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7548917629320093, "newChartFactor": 0.7535504675392176, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.01666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5936190859387944, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1835688332660474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9114976000017331, "adjustedSOG": 0.8932676480016984, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 46.276103554830264, "btb": { "id": "8476292", "name": "Ondrej Palat", "score": 46.276103554830264, "components": { "Goal model": 39.77272727272727, "SOG model": 19.318181818181817, "Unit attack": 61.53846153846154, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 48.86363636363637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.10292812777285, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.572731411386786, "unitPlayers": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 106 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": -8.170274568933024, "index": 91.82972543106698, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.394957983193276, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.067226890756302, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.109243697478995, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.386554621848741, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.697478991596636, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3445378151260505, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.170274568933024, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476292", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020421", "date": "20251203" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020785", "date": "20230127" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8564620220969938, "trialBefore6040": 0.8564620220969938, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8564620220969938, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 0.9161375514012107, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7166.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.943333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.1999999999999997, "onNet": 0.48312564901349947, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 56.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.10728927848954821, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8830687757006053, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8830687757006053, "baseline": 1.0375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 143, "beforeSOG": 0.8932676480016984, "adjustedSOG": 0.8932676480016984 } }, { "id": "8476312", "name": "Josh Manson", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.620253164556962, "currentTOI": 16.075757575757578, "currentFiveTOI": 13.886363636363637, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.4600000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.041818181818181824, "priorTOI": 17.78438818565401, "priorPPTOI": 0.04789029535864979, "deploymentChange": -1.7086306098964315, "ppTOIChange": -0.04789029535864979, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04192329827155971, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.05326288874310937, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05326288874310937, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05186927317854062, "goalProbability": 0.05186927317854062, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.270484216153439, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.713584288052373, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.886363636363637, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9218642906100065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 47.57709251101321, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.390295358649787, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008742436616058502, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1448666206234643, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.713584288052373, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3011286991464792, "adjustedSOG": 1.296412465462693, "reductionPct": 0.36247249690826155, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0883790555394905, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0883790555394905, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0883790555394905, "afterRecentZones": 1.0805186660665138, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0805186660665138, "adjusted": 1.0805186660665138, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1448666206234643, "newChartFactor": 1.1305202332524757, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0374688702739416, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.296412465462693, "adjustedSOG": 1.270484216153439, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04285714285714286, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 140, "goalExpected": 0.05762579585908858, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05762579585908858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05599686876800178, "goalProbability": 0.05599686876800178, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786605972825712, "modelSOG": 1.270484216153439, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 48, "2025": 79, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 205.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03414634146341464, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04192329827155971, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.716599086820224, "btb": { "id": "8476312", "name": "Josh Manson", "score": 36.716599086820224, "components": { "Goal model": 14.772727272727273, "SOG model": 46.59090909090909, "Unit attack": 55.172413793103445, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 7.386363636363637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 34.51086956521739, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.469833855842297, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 157 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 171, "fitPct": 4.82888735411548, "index": 104.82888735411548, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.84210526315789, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 129 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.374269005847953, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.374269005847953, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6374269005847955, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.204678362573099, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5672514619883042, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.82888735411548, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476312", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1414852554282031, "trialBefore6040": 1.1414852554282031, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1414852554282031, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2545454545454544, "attemptProjection": 0.9222126565335265, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9165.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.886363636363637, "projectedAttempts": 1.909090909090909, "onNet": 0.4504490712390284, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0883790555394905, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0883790555394905, "baseline": 1.620253164556962, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 95, "beforeSOG": 1.270484216153439, "adjustedSOG": 1.270484216153439 } }, { "id": "8476331", "name": "Dylan DeMelo", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.7, "priorSOG": 0.9146341463414634, "currentTOI": 21.546666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 18.345, "ppShare": 0.012441679626749611, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 7, "currentPPTOI": 0.05333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.18200000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.0182, "priorTOI": 21.45731707317073, "priorPPTOI": 0.1111788617886179, "deploymentChange": 0.08934959349593541, "ppTOIChange": -0.05784552845528457, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 24.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 22.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04972851109344821, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 157.0, "goalExpected": 0.03497086904156728, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03497086904156728, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0343664543214736, "goalProbability": 0.0343664543214736, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7032357951729371, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2894521668029437, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.345, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012441679626749611, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06709175738724728, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 32, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.766424251873796, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.25020325203252, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024361566622426892, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8730440935233226, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2894521668029437, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 24.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 22.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Haydn Fleury", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04938271604938271, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 81, "goalExpected": 0.038100391813415915, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038100391813415915, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037383702755538865, "goalProbability": 0.037383702755538865, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578022735101619, "modelSOG": 0.7032357951729371, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 157.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.044585987261146494, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04972851109344821, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.707542598816506, "adjustedSOG": 0.7032357951729371, "reductionPct": 0.6086988473588573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.569481567133201, "afterPlayerForm": 0.569481567133201, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5623035610605862, "afterRecentZones": 0.569481567133201, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5623035610605862, "adjusted": 0.5623035610605862, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8730440935233226, "newChartFactor": 0.8730440935233226, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 90.13333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3084187447168216, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7032357951729371, "adjustedSOG": 0.7032357951729371, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 35.469360635081344, "btb": { "id": "8476331", "name": "Dylan DeMelo", "score": 35.469360635081344, "components": { "Goal model": 6.818181818181818, "SOG model": 7.954545454545454, "Unit attack": 51.724137931034484, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.7045454545454546, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.76752440106477, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.305873476988271, "unitPlayers": [ "Haydn Fleury", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 163 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": -4.231863549222581, "index": 95.76813645077742, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.19886363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.625, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.3125, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.05113636363636, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5625, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.231863549222581, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476331", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.6670073753417345, "trialBefore6040": 0.6670073753417345, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.6670073753417345, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.595, "attemptProjection": 0.5439631342664021, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 11007.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.345, "projectedAttempts": 1.4, "onNet": 0.4215919384057971, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 32.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.06709175738724728, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.569481567133201, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.569481567133201, "baseline": 0.9146341463414634, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 163, "beforeSOG": 0.7032357951729371, "adjustedSOG": 0.7032357951729371 } }, { "id": "8476392", "name": "Adam Lowry", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 1.0142857142857142, "currentTOI": 15.330000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 12.813333333333333, "ppShare": 0.015552099533437015, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.06666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.909, "currentIXG": 0.09090000000000001, "priorTOI": 14.971428571428572, "priorPPTOI": 0.07142857142857142, "deploymentChange": 0.3585714285714303, "ppTOIChange": -0.004761904761904759, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12539621500381623, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.10631480156366949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10631480156366949, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10085844764786696, "goalProbability": 0.10085844764786696, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8478310255252439, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2778355879292405, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.813333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015552099533437015, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.08386469673405911, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9931269287997355, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 40, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.365207176824994, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.56690476190476, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.015651463539088573, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9453791469194313, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9575907795156966, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9052863542364624, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2778355879292405, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Dawson Mercer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0759493670886076, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 79, "goalExpected": 0.06542573603784024, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06542573603784024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06333139510140519, "goalProbability": 0.06333139510140519, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860147771060912, "modelSOG": 0.8478310255252439, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 70, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 178.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12359550561797752, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12539621500381623, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8734096937816861, "adjustedSOG": 0.8478310255252439, "reductionPct": 2.9285990799680417, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6794923467790006, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6378822247477249, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6794923467790006, "afterRecentZones": 0.6784047540551748, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6784047540551748, "adjusted": 0.6368612330182638, "playerFactor": 0.9387629276054097, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9575907795156966, "newChartFactor": 0.9543038360787852, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6094622019279553, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1008577514971376, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8478310255252439, "adjustedSOG": 0.8478310255252439, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 41.388769744748004, "btb": { "id": "8476392", "name": "Adam Lowry", "score": 41.388769744748004, "components": { "Goal model": 38.63636363636363, "SOG model": 17.613636363636363, "Unit attack": 17.94871794871795, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.431818181818183, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.95174390826565, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9850467848363984, "unitPlayers": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 136 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": -1.4136406828101116, "index": 98.58635931718989, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.309734513274336, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.141592920353983, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.34513274336283, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.309734513274336, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.477876106194691, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4159292035398232, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.4136406828101116, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476392", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7670500827914948, "trialBefore6040": 0.7670500827914948, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7670500827914948, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7337004479655236, "attemptProjection": 0.8252842455924777, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7688.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.813333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.6, "onNet": 0.4918573066188198, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 40.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.08386469673405911, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6794923467790006, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7794923467790007, "baseline": 1.0142857142857142, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 146, "beforeSOG": 0.8478310255252439, "adjustedSOG": 0.8478310255252439 } }, { "id": "8476399", "name": "Blake Coleman", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0833333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.550724637681159, "currentTOI": 15.887500000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 12.424999999999999, "ppShare": 0.29986876640419946, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 25, "currentPPTOI": 1.2694444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.942, "currentIXG": 0.3285, "priorTOI": 17.328743961352657, "priorPPTOI": 1.2492753623188406, "deploymentChange": -1.4412439613526562, "ppTOIChange": 0.020169082125603754, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021165", "date": "20260328", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020352", "date": "20251123", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020019", "date": "20251009", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021037", "date": "20250312", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020600", "date": "20241231", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10478748577056393, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 395.0, "goalExpected": 0.2261607682642632, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2261607682642632, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20241013578036984, "goalProbability": 0.20241013578036984, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.158280319459621, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.2434607645875255, "Current_PP_SOG60": 23.632385120350108, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.424999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29986876640419946, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3604462853601633, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0299758500211624, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 914, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.184008163562812, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.74477958236659, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.255555555555555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3317197248965781, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 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"opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020600", "date": "20241231", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020250", "date": "20241112", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020009", "date": "20241009", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.376747743591726, "adjustedSOG": 2.3680933941843545, "reductionPct": 0.36412570205254235, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6257534413859673, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6257534413859673, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6257534413859673, "afterRecentZones": 1.6257534413859673, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6257534413859673, "adjusted": 1.6257534413859673, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1639445220272533, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5516763728128025, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5455683874218303, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5432673403915571, "afterRecentZones": 0.5516763728128025, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5432673403915571, "adjusted": 0.5372524571338507, "playerFactor": 0.9889283179559971, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8978388998035363, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3680933941843545, "adjustedSOG": 2.3207315263006674, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10217462322805125, "goalHistoryGoals": 37, "goalHistoryShots": 388, "goalExpected": 0.19702765459129223, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19702765459129223, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17883207606466864, "goalProbability": 0.17883207606466864, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869805456429148, "modelSOG": 2.158280319459621, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 395.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09873417721518987, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10478748577056393, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.39353882645376, "btb": { "id": "8476399", "name": "Blake Coleman", "score": 60.39353882645376, "components": { "Goal model": 74.43181818181819, "SOG model": 87.5, "Unit attack": 56.41025641025641, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 87.5, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.43222506393862, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4363102477521164, "unitPlayers": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 39 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": 15.683508748153997, "index": 115.683508748154, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.244919786096256, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.789304812834228, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.345454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.478074866310159, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.319786096256685, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 17.822459893048126, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 20.3575992619962, "index": 120.3575992619962, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.4782608695652173, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.93478260869565, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.369565217391305, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.478260869565215, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 15.683508748153997, "zonePPFit": 20.3575992619962, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476399", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.4877868532334726, "trialBefore6040": 2.4877868532334726, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.4877868532334726, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4245529855643047, "attemptProjection": 2.0969733094999023, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8946.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.424999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 2.583333333333333, "onNet": 0.5282104534440983, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 914.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3604462853601633, "projectedAttempts": 0.7144575678040245, "onNet": 0.590492889148646, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6257534413859673, "ppAdjusted": 0.5516763728128025, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2607631475321037, "baseline": 2.550724637681159, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 23, "beforeSOG": 2.3207315263006674, "adjustedSOG": 2.158280319459621 } }, { "id": "8476419", "name": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.1081081081081081, "currentTOI": 15.718333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.365, "ppShare": 0.037086985839514496, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.18333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.11, "currentIXG": 0.11100000000000002, "priorTOI": 15.66554054054054, "priorPPTOI": 0.3310810810810811, "deploymentChange": 0.052792792792793364, "ppTOIChange": -0.14774774774774777, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.142851592221542, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.15411886407596073, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15411886407596073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1428298717793509, "goalProbability": 0.1428298717793509, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0788739675854984, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8819247877072383, "Current_PP_SOG60": 32.72727272727273, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.365, "Current_PP_Share": 0.037086985839514496, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2107467970330411, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.048163338808703, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 110, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.199844450205548, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.162612612612612, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07223330963508698, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.056723933649289, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8819247877072383, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 32.72727272727273, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1956521739130435, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 92, "goalExpected": 0.2142782934806007, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2142782934806007, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1928762635088831, "goalProbability": 0.1928762635088831, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855399957564184, "modelSOG": 1.0788739675854984, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 74, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14953271028037382, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.142851592221542, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.100891803658672, "adjustedSOG": 1.100891803658672, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7217428903885701, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7217428903885701, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7217428903885701, "afterRecentZones": 0.7217428903885701, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7217428903885701, "adjusted": 0.7217428903885701, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.545625, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0520611851253758, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0743380436371442, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0743380436371442, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0743380436371442, "afterRecentZones": 0.0743380436371442, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0743380436371442, "adjusted": 0.0743380436371442, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.134020618556701, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.100891803658672, "adjustedSOG": 1.0788739675854984, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 47.927477985401325, "btb": { "id": "8476419", "name": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "score": 47.927477985401325, "components": { "Goal model": 57.38636363636363, "SOG model": 31.25, "Unit attack": 61.53846153846154, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 39.473684210526315, "Shot quality": 31.25, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.409937888198755, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.572731411386786, "unitPlayers": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 19, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 96 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": -8.370858777176082, "index": 91.62914122282392, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.21359223300971, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.21359223300971, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.64077669902913, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.106796116504853, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.04854368932039, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7766990291262137, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.370858777176082, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476419", "goals": 1, "sog": 19, "shootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 24, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2022020284", "date": "20221119" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021021121", "date": "20220405" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020985", "date": "20220319" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1442471034084216, "trialBefore6040": 1.1442471034084216, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1442471034084216, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.07770987862441, "attemptProjection": 1.1144519894270186, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 7419.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.365, "projectedAttempts": 1.8, "onNet": 0.49209679760061925, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 110.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2107467970330411, "projectedAttempts": 0.11495279838165878, "onNet": 0.5348434069108979, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7217428903885701, "ppAdjusted": 0.0743380436371442, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0960809340257143, "baseline": 1.1081081081081081, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 122, "beforeSOG": 1.0788739675854984, "adjustedSOG": 1.0788739675854984 } }, { "id": "8476429", "name": "Scott Mayfield", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.8875, "currentTOI": 13.641666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.525, "ppShare": 0.032036613272311214, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0.11666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.065, "currentIXG": 0.0325, "priorTOI": 16.471041666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.020416666666666666, "deploymentChange": -2.8293750000000006, "ppTOIChange": 0.09625, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.048342183984819286, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.02537119991079158, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02537119991079158, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.025052055738648712, "goalProbability": 0.025052055738648712, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5248252730732812, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8503562945368173, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.525, "Current_PP_Share": 0.032036613272311214, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.18204805491990847, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 437, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.4511375017885246, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 36.734693877551024, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.560416666666665, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00445438742749703, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8503562945368173, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.027777777777777776, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 72, "goalExpected": 0.02151437358175987, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02151437358175987, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021284590277915415, "goalProbability": 0.021284590277915415, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057803070286147, "modelSOG": 0.5248252730732812, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 80, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 123.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04065040650406504, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.048342183984819286, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5356916515613809, "adjustedSOG": 0.5355359929319196, "reductionPct": 0.029057505191210087, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.30115275260230157, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30115275260230157, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3008933215531993, "afterRecentZones": 0.30115275260230157, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.30089332155319937, "adjusted": 0.30089332155319937, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 21.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.23333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5355359929319196, "adjustedSOG": 0.5248252730732812, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": -9.337506061443094, "index": 90.6624939385569, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.422018348623855, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1009174311926608, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4678899082568808, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.834862385321101, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.80733944954129, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3669724770642202, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.337506061443094, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476429", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020985", "date": "20220319" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.4427244019258931, "trialBefore6040": 0.4427244019258931, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.4427244019258931, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4250000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.17730550520460298, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1263.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.525, "projectedAttempts": 0.5, "onNet": 0.411409491332765, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 14.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.18204805491990847, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.30115275260230157, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.30115275260230157, "baseline": 0.8875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5248252730732812, "adjustedSOG": 0.5248252730732812 } }, { "id": "8476455", "name": "Gabriel Landeskog", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 2.2, "currentTOI": 15.584848484848486, "currentFiveTOI": 13.096969696969696, "ppShare": 0.33491827637444277, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 1.7075757575757577, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.644, "currentIXG": 0.24036363636363636, "priorTOI": 16.413611111111113, "priorPPTOI": 2.3105555555555553, "deploymentChange": -0.8287626262626269, "ppTOIChange": -0.6029797979797975, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12493991728841415, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.2038944154196194, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2038944154196194, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18445152401483986, "goalProbability": 0.18445152401483986, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6319397342719932, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.414160111059695, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.388642413487134, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.096969696969696, "Current_PP_Share": 0.33491827637444277, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6765704444144265, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9861472997848124, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1127, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.071246185464284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.223130560230825, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.380833333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4217949657869012, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9889074693422519, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0733303652096857, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0614244152277053, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.414160111059695, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.388642413487134, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6964443139055776, "adjustedSOG": 1.6652446268081564, "reductionPct": 1.8391223833096437, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2411578769978902, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2411578769978902, "afterRecentDefense": 1.189158398502188, "afterRecentZones": 1.2411578769978902, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.189158398502188, "adjusted": 1.189158398502188, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9581040579450871, "oldChartFactor": 1.0733303652096857, "newChartFactor": 1.0733303652096857, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.91666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1365056890012641, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8064301980128095, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1195826461780723, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1195826461780723, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1195826461780723, "afterRecentZones": 0.1195826461780723, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1195826461780723, "adjusted": 0.1195826461780723, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.6380813953488371, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6652446268081564, "adjustedSOG": 1.6319397342719932, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1232876712328767, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 146, "goalExpected": 0.23063880292095273, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23063880292095273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2059737858049194, "goalProbability": 0.2059737858049194, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860159570238294, "modelSOG": 1.6319397342719932, "historyGames": 71, "seasonGames": { "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12244897959183673, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12493991728841415, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 59.76445155721471, "btb": { "id": "8476455", "name": "Gabriel Landeskog", "score": 59.76445155721471, "components": { "Goal model": 68.75, "SOG model": 68.75, "Unit attack": 79.48717948717949, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 42.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 76.70454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.64835164835165, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.996802618805426, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 42 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": 2.444345506989521, "index": 102.44434550698952, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.820399113082042, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.65631929046563, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.88691796008869, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.031042128603104, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.654101995565411, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -12.46375475154997, "index": 87.53624524845003, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.03225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.935483870967744, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.87096774193548, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.161290322580645, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.444345506989521, "zonePPFit": -12.46375475154997, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476455", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.3758959532444957, "trialBefore6040": 1.3758959532444957, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.3758959532444957, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4061499674222875, "attemptProjection": 1.3153310789296375, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8644.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.096969696969696, "projectedAttempts": 2.272727272727273, "onNet": 0.5038006230529595, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1127.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6765704444144265, "projectedAttempts": 0.1785168175064163, "onNet": 0.5817036071273359, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2411578769978902, "ppAdjusted": 0.1195826461780723, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3607405231759624, "baseline": 2.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 56, "beforeSOG": 1.6319397342719932, "adjustedSOG": 1.6319397342719932 } }, { "id": "8476460", "name": "Mark Scheifele", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 2.1341463414634148, "currentTOI": 20.825, "currentFiveTOI": 16.44833333333333, "ppShare": 0.7321150855365475, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 3.138333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.284, "currentIXG": 0.32839999999999997, "priorTOI": 21.504065040650406, "priorPPTOI": 3.069918699186992, "deploymentChange": -0.6790650406504071, "ppTOIChange": 0.06841463414634141, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.189522721723697, "goalHistoryGoals": 77.0, "goalHistoryShots": 374.0, "goalExpected": 0.36299742216743397, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36299742216743397, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.304411773393233, "goalProbability": 0.304411773393233, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.9153240248240195, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.74212179552133, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.8236856080722252, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.44833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7321150855365475, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9479305987558324, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9931269287997355, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1883, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.540438278417152, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.295550847457626, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.759959349593494, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6726820882360799, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9453791469194313, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9512498047674258, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9362388493705383, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8992917289383046, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9048635135418968, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.74212179552133, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.8236856080722252, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19895287958115182, "goalHistoryGoals": 38, "goalHistoryShots": 191, "goalExpected": 0.3687914791952873, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3687914791952873, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30843039793375215, "goalProbability": 0.30843039793375215, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12833770097032368, "modelSOG": 1.9153240248240195, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 77.0, "historyShots": 374.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.20588235294117646, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.189522721723697, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9458595863456494, "adjustedSOG": 1.9153240248240195, "reductionPct": 1.5692582206805583, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1593665432135318, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1593665432135318, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1593665432135318, "afterRecentZones": 1.1575515743534708, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1575515743534708, "adjusted": 1.1575515743534708, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9512498047674258, "newChartFactor": 0.9482962175280542, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.123047969187675, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1008577514971376, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3609685397202741, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3315592428561398, "afterRecentDefense": 0.33977359854441547, "afterRecentZones": 0.35996051295766873, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.33955562190642186, "adjusted": 0.3118909060442854, "playerFactor": 0.9185267034990792, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 0.9362388493705383, "newChartFactor": 0.9279478820325703, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.166666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.4598290598290598, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9153240248240195, "adjustedSOG": 1.9153240248240195, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 69.50498654119119, "btb": { "id": "8476460", "name": "Mark Scheifele", "score": 69.50498654119119, "components": { "Goal model": 95.45454545454545, "SOG model": 76.13636363636364, "Unit attack": 87.17948717948718, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 85.79545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.17036379769299, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1694129343445034, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 8 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 181, "fitPct": -1.6250065077524738, "index": 98.37499349224753, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.209944751381215, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.92265193370166, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.3646408839779, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0939226519337, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.198895027624308, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.209944751381215, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -2.125371687648723, "index": 97.87462831235128, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.352941176470587, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.7058823529411775, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.68627450980392, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.1372549019607843, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.6250065077524738, "zonePPFit": -2.125371687648723, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476460", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7802986647694705, "trialBefore6040": 1.7802986647694705, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7802986647694705, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6967375600665149, "attemptProjection": 1.9439326058010968, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9869.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.44833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.3999999999999995, "onNet": 0.5197646248221907, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1883.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9479305987558324, "projectedAttempts": 1.132173405909798, "onNet": 0.4792714195331491, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1593665432135318, "ppAdjusted": 0.3609685397202741, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8203350829338059, "baseline": 2.1341463414634148, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 43, "beforeSOG": 1.9153240248240195, "adjustedSOG": 1.9153240248240195 } }, { "id": "8476463", "name": "Jonas Brodin", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.2258064516129032, "currentTOI": 21.76388888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 17.895833333333332, "ppShare": 0.031496062992125984, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.429, "currentIXG": 0.03575, "priorTOI": 20.29005376344086, "priorPPTOI": 0.07634408602150537, "deploymentChange": 1.47383512544803, "ppTOIChange": 0.05698924731182796, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; 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chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2096962272857796, "adjustedSOG": 1.185502302740064, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05337153055939816, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 158, "goalExpected": 0.06411729944128837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06411729944128837, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06210502147881354, "goalProbability": 0.06210502147881354, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778328969730375, "modelSOG": 1.185502302740064, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 62, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05299357296050144, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.105138409459464, "btb": { "id": "8476463", "name": "Jonas Brodin", "score": 39.105138409459464, "components": { "Goal model": 20.454545454545453, "SOG model": 39.77272727272727, "Unit attack": 34.48275862068966, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.272727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 62.33362910381544, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1235921587012947, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 148 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 102, "fitPct": 6.856141098075909, "index": 106.85614109807591, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.95588235294117, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352944, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.9607843137254901, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.02450980392157, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.602941176470587, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.279411764705881, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.856141098075909, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476463", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2128803482664663, "trialBefore6040": 1.2128803482664663, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2128803482664663, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2333333333333332, "attemptProjection": 1.1712074177213303, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 12885.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.895833333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.4153491436100132, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 96.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1428915135608049, "projectedAttempts": 0.08930719597550306, "onNet": 0.4113139508677034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0977296914235013, "ppAdjusted": 0.02120735077049702, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2022703755273318, "baseline": 1.2258064516129032, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 107, "beforeSOG": 1.185502302740064, "adjustedSOG": 1.185502302740064 } }, { "id": "8476467", "name": "Jamie Oleksiak", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 0.9871794871794872, "currentTOI": 18.004545454545454, "currentFiveTOI": 15.653030303030304, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 7, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.248, "currentIXG": 0.022545454545454546, "priorTOI": 16.926923076923078, "priorPPTOI": 0.014957264957264958, "deploymentChange": 1.077622377622376, "ppTOIChange": -0.014957264957264958, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.8 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"team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06308963997060985, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.044169725576483146, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045143280287720786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04320844830645612, "goalProbability": 0.04413948394867486, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09310356422187402, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7001105981435225, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0907946955764203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.653030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3357, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8225758498152422, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.092521367521368, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003593003583238625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0186339658834007, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9063612884099516, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9232503937362178, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0907946955764203, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.5 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 84, "goalExpected": 0.0701355597304444, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0701355597304444, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06773256658229357, "goalProbability": 0.06773256658229357, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057724099926524615, "modelSOG": 0.7001105981435225, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06308963997060985, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7002027120223177, "adjustedSOG": 0.7001105981435225, "reductionPct": 0.013155315912605214, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4179757710084469, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4179757710084469, "afterRecentDefense": 0.41782224787712174, "afterRecentZones": 0.41797577100844685, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.41782224787712174, "adjusted": 0.41782224787712174, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9996326984912194, "oldChartFactor": 0.9063612884099516, "newChartFactor": 0.9063612884099516, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.76666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2625262746248227, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7001105981435225, "adjustedSOG": 0.7001105981435225, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 115, "fitPct": -3.121290386334948, "index": 96.87870961366505, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 35.701863354037265, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 78 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.0434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.782608695652174, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.77018633540373, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.130434782608696, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.121290386334948, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476467", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020434", "date": "20251204" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020797", "date": "20250127" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020631", "date": "20250104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.6137350664337727, "trialBefore6040": 0.6137350664337727, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.6137350664337727, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5945002147652096, "attemptProjection": 0.42326950906986605, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 10331.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.653030303030304, "projectedAttempts": 0.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.44037091623679686, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4179757710084469, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5088848619175379, "baseline": 0.9871794871794872, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7001105981435225, "adjustedSOG": 0.7001105981435225 } }, { "id": "8476479", "name": "Phillip Danault", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.2133333333333334, "currentTOI": 16.101666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.631666666666666, "ppShare": 0.01775147928994083, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 0.075, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.95, "currentIXG": 0.195, "priorTOI": 15.566222222222223, "priorPPTOI": 0.5922222222222222, "deploymentChange": 0.535444444444444, "ppTOIChange": -0.5172222222222222, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020212", "date": "20251104", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020022", "date": "20251011", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021191", "date": "20250401", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020667", "date": "20250110", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08118806088884183, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.12470385932676767, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12470385932676767, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11724171548754796, "goalProbability": 0.11724171548754796, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5359876558390186, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.705831781057458, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.631666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01775147928994083, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07559171597633135, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0056146327014217, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 45, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.961873053377725, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.414666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1246516934046346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0726303317535546, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1501104199915075, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.705831781057458, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020212", "date": "20251104", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020022", "date": "20251011", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021191", "date": "20250401", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020667", "date": "20250110", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020359", "date": "20241127", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6132972603464846, "adjustedSOG": 1.567334342692876, "reductionPct": 2.849004878601058, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.479939878355252, "afterPlayerForm": 1.479939878355252, "afterRecentDefense": 1.407627393069724, "afterRecentZones": 1.4754269933241697, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4033350155992381, "adjusted": 1.4033350155992381, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9511382277461883, "oldChartFactor": 1.1501104199915075, "newChartFactor": 1.1431668533045896, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3680078407097906, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7721603040897252, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.6166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.567334342692876, "adjustedSOG": 1.5359876558390186, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 105, "goalExpected": 0.07421034512446345, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07421034512446345, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07152362717860726, "goalProbability": 0.07152362717860726, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1287324815420664, "modelSOG": 1.5359876558390186, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 231.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06060606060606061, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08118806088884183, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.12895799852322, "btb": { "id": "8476479", "name": "Phillip Danault", "score": 57.12895799852322, "components": { "Goal model": 45.45454545454545, "SOG model": 61.93181818181818, "Unit attack": 84.61538461538461, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.61363636363636, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 64.79037267080746, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.161490446185151, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 53 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": 5.0036806663835875, "index": 105.00368066638359, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.649595687331535, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.148247978436657, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.25876010781671, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.762803234501348, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.86522911051213, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.315363881401618, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.0036806663835875, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476479", "goals": 0, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020691", "date": "20250113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020569", "date": "20241228" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023021160", "date": "20240328" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020925", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020816", "date": "20240210" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020563", "date": "20231230" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022021237", "date": "20230404" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2022020259", "date": "20221116" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7771488095862966, "trialBefore6040": 1.7771488095862966, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7771488095862966, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8949999999999996, "attemptProjection": 1.8648797567105047, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 6979.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.631666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.6999999999999997, "onNet": 0.4995140550239235, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 45.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07559171597633135, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.479939878355252, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8799398783552521, "baseline": 1.2133333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 68, "beforeSOG": 1.5359876558390186, "adjustedSOG": 1.5359876558390186 } }, { "id": "8476480", "name": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.2666666666666666, "currentTOI": 12.091666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 9.411111111111111, "ppShare": 0.26354029062087186, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 7, "currentPPTOI": 1.1083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6910000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.11516666666666668, "priorTOI": 13.776666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.4361111111111111, "deploymentChange": -1.6850000000000005, "ppTOIChange": -0.3277777777777777, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11502774543505508, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.12551278687639617, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12551278687639617, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11795551423889178, "goalProbability": 0.11795551423889178, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0911522815794121, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.375442739079102, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.411111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26354029062087186, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4211410171730516, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9993791211877663, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 399, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1514, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.7751222028444404, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.444874274661508, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.30861111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3146813697108975, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9689520624303234, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9367854578326913, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9077002014217209, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.375442739079102, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.05 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0963855421686747, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 83, "goalExpected": 0.09830523300378395, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09830523300378395, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09362779318368236, "goalProbability": 0.09362779318368236, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862685485510256, "modelSOG": 1.0911522815794121, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 60, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 177.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10734463276836158, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11502774543505508, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1154095160076207, "adjustedSOG": 1.0911522815794121, "reductionPct": 2.1747379845773906, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.84790474890159, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8444611713845565, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8107687828628258, "afterRecentZones": 0.84790474890159, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8107687828628258, "adjusted": 0.8074760248545757, "playerFactor": 0.9959387212755979, "defenseFactor": 0.956202667708995, "oldChartFactor": 0.9367854578326913, "newChartFactor": 0.9367854578326913, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9690382552735073, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7934609801617474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0911522815794121, "adjustedSOG": 1.0911522815794121, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": -2.107151405576957, "index": 97.89284859442304, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.761904761904763, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.64285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.214285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.30952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.19047619047619, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.880952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.107151405576957, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476480", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1255944822884794, "trialBefore6040": 1.1255944822884794, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1255944822884794, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0743668680883875, "attemptProjection": 0.9547759630481256, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 3388.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.411111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5130841121495328, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 399.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4211410171730516, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.84790474890159, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0145714155682566, "baseline": 1.2666666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0911522815794121, "adjustedSOG": 1.0911522815794121 } }, { "id": "8476539", "name": "Jonathan Marchessault", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 2.129032258064516, "currentTOI": 16.543333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.176666666666668, "ppShare": 0.5890315862547727, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 19, "currentPPTOI": 2.8283333333333336, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.2840000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.22840000000000002, "priorTOI": 16.70725806451613, "priorPPTOI": 2.6620967741935484, "deploymentChange": -0.16392473118279582, "ppTOIChange": 0.1662365591397852, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10474620823632548, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 357.0, "goalExpected": 0.20997153712599723, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20997153712599723, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18939268214420668, "goalProbability": 0.18939268214420668, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.004574109759327, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.3749051353402475, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.60695344725987, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.176666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5890315862547727, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.702003907523693, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0046320023276856, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1697, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.840363400389357, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.177521963041503, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.255913978494624, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6592665214847011, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0291796394178554, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, 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"home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Filip Forsberg", "Mavrik Bourque", "Jonathan Marchessault" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.006299287365656, "adjustedSOG": 2.004574109759327, "reductionPct": 0.08598804860238118, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4479058744874087, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4460733238750054, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4479058744874087, "afterRecentZones": 1.4468618076599233, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4468618076599233, "adjusted": 1.44503057847686, "playerFactor": 0.9987343441001978, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0014831318481996, "newChartFactor": 1.0000338959887451, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9919698870765371, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1986983594731606, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4765714324123408, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4765714324123408, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4765714324123408, "afterRecentZones": 0.4765714324123408, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4765714324123408, "adjusted": 0.4765714324123408, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9676008990051579, "newChartFactor": 0.9676008990051579, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3234180035650625, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.004574109759327, "adjustedSOG": 2.004574109759327, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10541651080364463, "goalHistoryGoals": 35, "goalHistoryShots": 354, "goalExpected": 0.20674344361751623, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20674344361751623, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1867717378728963, "goalProbability": 0.1867717378728963, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869017164000743, "modelSOG": 2.004574109759327, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 62, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 357.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09803921568627451, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10474620823632548, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.08592402011772, "btb": { "id": "8476539", "name": "Jonathan Marchessault", "score": 56.08592402011772, "components": { "Goal model": 71.02272727272727, "SOG model": 79.54545454545455, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 75.56818181818181, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 65.47314578005115, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7786211160464407, "unitPlayers": [ "Filip Forsberg", "Mavrik Bourque", "Jonathan Marchessault" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 58 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 125, "fitPct": 0.04943772827331827, "index": 100.04943772827332, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.879999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.08, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.319999999999997, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.699999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.460000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.559999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": -1.079970033161402, "index": 98.9200299668386, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3559322033898307, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.991525423728813, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.01694915254238, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.177966101694915, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.779661016949152, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6779661016949153, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.04943772827331827, "zonePPFit": -1.079970033161402, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476539", "goals": 3, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.375, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.940041794629531, "trialBefore6040": 1.940041794629531, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.940041794629531, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9020116611242353, "attemptProjection": 1.946942952675264, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7906.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.176666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 2.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.49934096061580646, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1697.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.702003907523693, "projectedAttempts": 1.0508677542519962, "onNet": 0.4983654282100842, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4479058744874087, "ppAdjusted": 0.4765714324123408, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9244773068997496, "baseline": 2.129032258064516, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 38, "beforeSOG": 2.004574109759327, "adjustedSOG": 2.004574109759327 } }, { "id": "8476869", "name": "Brady Skjei", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.353658536585366, "currentTOI": 19.721666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 15.306666666666667, "ppShare": 0.13953488372093023, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.67, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.587, "currentIXG": 0.058699999999999995, "priorTOI": 22.609552845528455, "priorPPTOI": 1.071341463414634, "deploymentChange": -2.8878861788617876, "ppTOIChange": -0.40134146341463406, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 23.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 24.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 21.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04968919730341985, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 278.0, "goalExpected": 0.05976522045058819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05976522045058819, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05801433340516583, "goalProbability": 0.05801433340516583, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": 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"2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2027868994577484, "adjustedSOG": 1.2027809603290747, "reductionPct": 0.0004937806253435539, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8658451424909552, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8658451424909552, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8658451424909552, "afterRecentZones": 0.8658451424909552, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8658451424909552, "adjusted": 0.8658451424909552, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0260858356643867, "newChartFactor": 1.0260858356643867, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.221749226006192, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1558877037776905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.03636066554838167, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03635076700059173, "afterRecentDefense": 0.03636066554838167, "afterRecentZones": 0.03636066554838167, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.03636066554838167, "adjusted": 0.03635076700059173, "playerFactor": 0.9997277676950999, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.000553112077835, "newChartFactor": 1.000553112077835, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.3666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.995049504950495, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2027809603290747, "adjustedSOG": 1.2027809603290747, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.050063798300055015, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 275, "goalExpected": 0.04917855097691125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04917855097691125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04798886799532048, "goalProbability": 0.04798886799532048, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057825165806927044, "modelSOG": 1.2027809603290747, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 278.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046762589928057555, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04968919730341985, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.72835920556468, "btb": { "id": "8476869", "name": "Brady Skjei", "score": 37.72835920556468, "components": { "Goal model": 17.613636363636363, "SOG model": 40.90909090909091, "Unit attack": 17.24137931034483, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.21052631578947, "Shot quality": 17.613636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 68.35748792270532, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9580497263280527, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 153 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": 0.8695278554795607, "index": 100.86952785547956, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 85 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.769230769230768, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.307692307692307, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": 0.01843706926116795, "index": 100.01843706926117, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.8095238095238098, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.8095238095238098, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8695278554795607, "zonePPFit": 0.01843706926116795, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476869", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020487", "date": "20221217" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2021021022", "date": "20220324" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1288584360925757, "trialBefore6040": 1.1288584360925757, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1288584360925757, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1024341525507346, "attemptProjection": 1.1019774635279391, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9184.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.306666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.9, "onNet": 0.42002730518798576, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 402.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6400739957716702, "projectedAttempts": 0.19106686440945378, "onNet": 0.40340406719717065, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8658451424909552, "ppAdjusted": 0.03636066554838167, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1022058080393369, "baseline": 1.353658536585366, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 105, "beforeSOG": 1.2027809603290747, "adjustedSOG": 1.2027809603290747 } }, { "id": "8476874", "name": "Olli Maatta", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7906976744186046, "currentTOI": 20.3375, "currentFiveTOI": 16.320833333333333, "ppShare": 0.0045662100456621, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0.01875, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.21100000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.026375000000000003, "priorTOI": 17.213565891472868, "priorPPTOI": 0.03953488372093023, "deploymentChange": 3.1239341085271306, "ppTOIChange": -0.020784883720930233, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021165", "date": "20260328", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021071", "date": "20250316", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020915", "date": "20250223", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05108396108984191, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 111.0, "goalExpected": 0.03468744963123408, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03468744963123408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.034092736244683716, "goalProbability": 0.034092736244683716, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.679028189889756, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.9190707173857544, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.320833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0045662100456621, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.020716007102993404, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9860699137505905, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1971, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.964367701367402, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.533333333333331, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01049768621657816, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0554223470576145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.188425467382597, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9190707173857544, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021165", "date": "20260328", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021071", "date": "20250316", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020915", "date": "20250223", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020510", "date": "20241218", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6931979419963571, "adjustedSOG": 0.6928859080507714, "reductionPct": 0.04501368608900158, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3781981203815254, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3781981203815254, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3781981203815254, "afterRecentZones": 0.37767806380554936, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.37767806380554936, "adjusted": 0.37767806380554936, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.188425467382597, "newChartFactor": 1.1841259997000249, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3075345731998094, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2188668790691233, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6928859080507714, "adjustedSOG": 0.679028189889756, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04653668627178561, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 110, "goalExpected": 0.023982885523710626, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023982885523710626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023697581480478937, "goalProbability": 0.023697581480478937, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778715789956643, "modelSOG": 0.679028189889756, "historyGames": 128, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 43, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 111.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04504504504504504, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05108396108984191, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.740337449549806, "btb": { "id": "8476874", "name": "Olli Maatta", "score": 35.740337449549806, "components": { "Goal model": 6.25, "SOG model": 7.386363636363637, "Unit attack": 34.48275862068966, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.363636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.575865128660155, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1235921587012947, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Brodin", "Olli Maatta" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 160 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 6.280848912753228, "index": 106.28084891275323, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.280848912753228, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476874", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020790", "date": "20250126" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5323867537332833, "trialBefore6040": 0.5323867537332833, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5323867537332833, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5375, "attemptProjection": 0.7188962407630508, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 7834.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.320833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.125, "onNet": 0.37257430606730535, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.020716007102993404, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3781981203815254, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6281981203815254, "baseline": 0.7906976744186046, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 164, "beforeSOG": 0.679028189889756, "adjustedSOG": 0.679028189889756 } }, { "id": "8476875", "name": "Mike Matheson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "currentTOI": 23.50277777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 17.36111111111111, "ppShare": 0.09860012172854535, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.45, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6679999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11133333333333333, "priorTOI": 24.16346153846154, "priorPPTOI": 0.288034188034188, "deploymentChange": -0.6606837606837601, "ppTOIChange": 0.161965811965812, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 24.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 27.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052746171736477304, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.09223906953687569, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09223906953687569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0881128809473304, "goalProbability": 0.0881128809473304, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7487348654933104, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.184, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.36111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09860012172854535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.4198721850273889, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 162, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1643, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.037886340977069, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.6706231454005933, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.85982905982906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06062580556698204, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1309546686300331, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.184, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 24.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 27.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 26.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lane Hutson", "Mike Matheson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8014723268661212, "adjustedSOG": 1.784423332136031, "reductionPct": 0.9463922634742383, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5280949037512284, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5083782786998712, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5280949037512284, "afterRecentZones": 1.5192828377091088, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5192828377091088, "adjusted": 1.499679912534411, "playerFactor": 0.9870972509606858, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1309546686300331, "newChartFactor": 1.1193998312612081, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.93333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9269611646054853, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.784423332136031, "adjustedSOG": 1.7487348654933104, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.056910569105691054, "goalHistoryGoals": 7, "goalHistoryShots": 123, "goalExpected": 0.09222398255523193, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09222398255523193, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08809912321932303, "goalProbability": 0.08809912321932303, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577981440117899, "modelSOG": 1.7487348654933104, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 78, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 275.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052746171736477304, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.58365185022956, "btb": { "id": "8476875", "name": "Mike Matheson", "score": 45.58365185022956, "components": { "Goal model": 31.818181818181817, "SOG model": 72.72727272727273, "Unit attack": 68.96551724137932, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 32.89473684210526, "Shot quality": 43.75, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.150842945874004, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.713640532620818, "unitPlayers": [ "Lane Hutson", "Mike Matheson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 112 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 4.365155621001108, "index": 104.36515562100111, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.52380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.952380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8571428571428572, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.365155621001108, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476875", "goals": 0, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.0892540345385755, "trialBefore6040": 2.0892540345385755, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.0892540345385755, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2249999999999996, "attemptProjection": 1.8311898075024566, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6250.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.36111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.43256543370105993, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 162.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.4198721850273889, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5280949037512284, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.028094903751228, "baseline": 1.4615384615384615, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 49, "beforeSOG": 1.7487348654933104, "adjustedSOG": 1.7487348654933104 } }, { "id": "8476882", "name": "Teuvo Teravainen", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1.1891891891891893, "currentTOI": 14.760416666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.875, "ppShare": 0.33819095477386935, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 1.4020833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9169999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11462499999999999, "priorTOI": 17.752252252252255, "priorPPTOI": 2.6722972972972974, "deploymentChange": -2.991835585585589, "ppTOIChange": -1.270213963963964, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13914443554288672, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.1474433682375934, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15229199000715998, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13708869487433445, "goalProbability": 0.14126249863880225, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41738037644677983, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0596425768829887, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.827586206896552, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.698365527488855, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.33819095477386935, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.765510507080859, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9786624513869284, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 673, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1990, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6254440253414875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.9785082174462705, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.30045045045045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.617504985967329, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9893295110686415, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8718478931697665, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1498154821506879, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8625448498758703, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1255349758047888, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.827586206896552, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.698365527488855, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Teuvo Teravainen", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0634702166721817, "adjustedSOG": 1.0596425768829887, "reductionPct": 0.35991979175218347, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.72685939514982, "afterPlayerForm": 0.72685939514982, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7265028730675884, "afterRecentZones": 0.7256312491314588, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7252753294507077, "adjusted": 0.7252753294507077, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9995095033721644, "oldChartFactor": 0.8718478931697665, "newChartFactor": 0.8690104250990132, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.06666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0727496917385944, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9976422045387563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2527981731776902, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2527981731776902, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2480028392281473, "afterRecentZones": 0.2527981731776902, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2480028392281473, "adjusted": 0.2480028392281473, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1.1498154821506879, "newChartFactor": 1.1498154821506879, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0596425768829887, "adjustedSOG": 1.0596425768829887, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15789473684210525, "goalHistoryGoals": 15, "goalHistoryShots": 95, "goalExpected": 0.16361133098721756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16361133098721756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15092803428072255, "goalProbability": 0.15092803428072255, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285648614720911, "modelSOG": 1.0596425768829887, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 74, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14423076923076922, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13914443554288672, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.48347385833084, "btb": { "id": "8476882", "name": "Teuvo Teravainen", "score": 48.48347385833084, "components": { "Goal model": 54.54545454545455, "SOG model": 30.113636363636363, "Unit attack": 12.820512820512821, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 39.77272727272727, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 59.81844242713808, "Goalie H2H": 49.23076923076923 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9489157750849249, "unitPlayers": [ "Teuvo Teravainen", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 91 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -4.271736894341117, "index": 95.72826310565888, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.01063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.88297872340425, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.95744680851064, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.43617021276596, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.308510638297872, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 4.993849405022928, "index": 104.99384940502293, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.42424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.484848484848486, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.75757575757576, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.696969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.271736894341117, "zonePPFit": 4.993849405022928, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476882", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0937830933611625, "trialBefore6040": 1.0937830933611625, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0937830933611625, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1090465937222818, "attemptProjection": 0.8502685429327386, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5220.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.875, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.515299918194079, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 673.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.765510507080859, "projectedAttempts": 0.31480127912288713, "onNet": 0.5269286754002911, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.72685939514982, "ppAdjusted": 0.2527981731776902, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9796575683275102, "baseline": 1.1891891891891893, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 124, "beforeSOG": 1.0596425768829887, "adjustedSOG": 1.0596425768829887 } }, { "id": "8476887", "name": "Filip Forsberg", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 3, "currentTOI": 20.613333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.031666666666666, "ppShare": 0.742103436306838, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 25, "currentPPTOI": 3.5633333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.599, "currentIXG": 0.2599, "priorTOI": 18.88678861788618, "priorPPTOI": 2.8510162601626017, "deploymentChange": 1.7265447154471545, "ppTOIChange": 0.7123170731707318, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13015101270459917, "goalHistoryGoals": 72.0, "goalHistoryShots": 552.0, "goalExpected": 0.3292276963468497, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3292276963468497, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28052082468511813, "goalProbability": 0.28052082468511813, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.5295822868016433, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.110926291714315, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.419083255378858, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.031666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.742103436306838, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.404174634228436, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9785521780458758, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2138, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.375089477451683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.832394667427105, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.765040650406505, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7060523083737694, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9228114880288792, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0471249141603247, "Chart_PP_Factor": 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21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 12, "toi": 18 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Filip Forsberg", "Mavrik Bourque", "Jonathan Marchessault" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.7859274963032057, "adjustedSOG": 2.719980953550154, "reductionPct": 2.3671306177407536, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9697978309194075, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9507608481186278, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8788033831687163, "afterRecentZones": 1.9697978309194077, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8788033831687163, "adjusted": 1.8606458102797587, "playerFactor": 0.9903355651519353, "defenseFactor": 0.9538051843075595, "oldChartFactor": 1.0471249141603247, "newChartFactor": 1.0471249141603247, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 86.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9455040993677813, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7837643119632204, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5734146629192687, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5734146629192687, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5734146629192687, "afterRecentZones": 0.572655778970497, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.572655778970497, "adjusted": 0.572655778970497, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1139117840804795, "newChartFactor": 1.1107123954571905, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5813609467455623, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.719980953550154, "adjustedSOG": 2.719980953550154, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13033587087380172, "goalHistoryGoals": 72, "goalHistoryShots": 551, "goalExpected": 0.37350440874708635, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.37350440874708635, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3116820483301108, "goalProbability": 0.3116820483301108, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858460283398657, "modelSOG": 2.5295822868016433, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 72.0, "historyShots": 552.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13015101270459917, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.70386378495647, "btb": { "id": "8476887", "name": "Filip Forsberg", "score": 59.70386378495647, "components": { "Goal model": 92.04545454545455, "SOG model": 92.61363636363636, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 79.54545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.554865424430645, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7786211160464407, "unitPlayers": [ "Filip Forsberg", "Mavrik Bourque", "Jonathan Marchessault" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 43 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 268, "fitPct": 1.570830472010826, "index": 101.57083047201083, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.83747927031509, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.446102819237148, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.101160862354893, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.913764510779437, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.212271973466002, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.4892205638474305, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 77, "fitPct": 3.797059469349321, "index": 103.79705946934932, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 29.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.733766233766234, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.733766233766232, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5194805194805194, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.467532467532468, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.570830472010826, "zonePPFit": 3.797059469349321, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476887", "goals": 2, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.18181818181818182, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 20, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020515", "date": "20231223" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.4987722401980674, "trialBefore6040": 2.4987722401980674, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.4987722401980674, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4643999783680646, "attemptProjection": 2.822025009309288, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 9619.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.031666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 4.300000000000001, "onNet": 0.47080695407496737, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2138.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.404174634228436, "projectedAttempts": 1.24193461866145, "onNet": 0.5277553582638328, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9697978309194075, "ppAdjusted": 0.5734146629192687, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6432124938386763, "baseline": 3, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 14, "beforeSOG": 2.719980953550154, "adjustedSOG": 2.5295822868016433 } }, { "id": "8476889", "name": "Radek Faksa", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 0.6551724137931034, "currentTOI": 10.746666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 8.091666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0010924981791697013, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.226, "currentIXG": 0.1226, "priorTOI": 11.73477011494253, "priorPPTOI": 0.014367816091954023, "deploymentChange": -0.9881034482758633, "ppTOIChange": -0.009367816091954022, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020330", "date": "20241123", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020068", "date": "20241017", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0924011205255139, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.07330549878862799, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07330549878862799, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07068311852650996, "goalProbability": 0.07068311852650996, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.79333993323584, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.932028836251288, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.091666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010924981791697013, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005696467589220684, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9845569359260292, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.515410436374733, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.416666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0029745028517501972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9082642180094787, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9289237622505508, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.932028836251288, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020330", "date": "20241123", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020068", "date": "20241017", "team": "STL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "David Perron", "Radek Faksa", "Colin Blackwell" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 46, "goalExpected": 0.030034975977910494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030034975977910494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.029588408139461227, "goalProbability": 0.029588408139461227, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866240912985488, "modelSOG": 0.79333993323584, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 58, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06086956521739131, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0924011205255139, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8063148597157439, "adjustedSOG": 0.79333993323584, "reductionPct": 1.6091637557663407, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8070764903308376, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8069907099415083, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7855351037203231, "afterRecentZones": 0.8070764903308376, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7855351037203231, "adjusted": 0.7854516128643309, "playerFactor": 0.9998937146722064, "defenseFactor": 0.9538803877813323, "oldChartFactor": 0.9289237622505508, "newChartFactor": 0.9231938290325485, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 38.56666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9990945384203813, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7848038262416315, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.79333993323584, "adjustedSOG": 0.79333993323584, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 39.61250705815923, "btb": { "id": "8476889", "name": "Radek Faksa", "score": 39.61250705815923, "components": { "Goal model": 25.568181818181817, "SOG model": 12.5, "Unit attack": 30.76923076923077, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 39.20454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.843287147634975, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.131406589240417, "unitPlayers": [ "David Perron", "Radek Faksa", "Colin Blackwell" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 145 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -2.3692079249816373, "index": 97.63079207501836, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.514161220043572, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.7037037037037033, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.0239651416122, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.514161220043572, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.973856209150328, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.270152505446623, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.3692079249816373, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476889", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020330", "date": "20241123" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-25-2026", "availabilityCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8517717737945025, "trialBefore6040": 0.8517717737945025, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8517717737945025, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.78, "attemptProjection": 1.0341529806616752, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 4855.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.091666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4713039751667903, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005696467589220684, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8070764903308376, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9070764903308376, "baseline": 0.6551724137931034, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 155, "beforeSOG": 0.79333993323584, "adjustedSOG": 0.79333993323584 } }, { "id": "8476902", "name": "Esa Lindell", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.0121951219512195, "currentTOI": 20.8125, "currentFiveTOI": 16.141666666666666, "ppShare": 0.09074243813015583, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0.4125, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.227, "currentIXG": 0.028375, "priorTOI": 23.234756097560975, "priorPPTOI": 0.7170731707317073, "deploymentChange": -2.4222560975609753, "ppTOIChange": -0.3045731707317073, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 25.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05865345243964602, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 186.0, "goalExpected": 0.04008750609221254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04008750609221254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03929463209850913, "goalProbability": 0.03929463209850913, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6834637080138171, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.9292720702116676, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.141666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09074243813015583, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.47314619615032083, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 198, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2182, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7145599122566493, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.122448979591836, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.790243902439023, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14845235891134934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9182841722650263, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9292720702116676, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 25.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 24.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06896551724137931, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 87, "goalExpected": 0.06704527253554694, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06704527253554694, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06484713636284456, "goalProbability": 0.06484713636284456, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774887397738763, "modelSOG": 0.6834637080138171, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 186.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05913978494623656, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05865345243964602, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.689357632460291, "adjustedSOG": 0.6834637080138171, "reductionPct": 0.8549879146820705, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.22413263946633877, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22126698817065493, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21708497533348933, "afterRecentZones": 0.22413263946633877, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21708497533348933, "adjusted": 0.21430943205554862, "playerFactor": 0.9872144846796658, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.9182841722650263, "newChartFactor": 0.9182841722650263, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9267942583732057, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6834637080138171, "adjustedSOG": 0.6834637080138171, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -2.723860924499121, "index": 97.27613907550088, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.83838383838383, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.04040404040404, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6161616161616161, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.080808080808081, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8080808080808081, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6161616161616161, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.723860924499121, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476902", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-25-2026", "availabilityCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.48513053938744877, "trialBefore6040": 0.48513053938744877, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.48513053938744877, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4625, "attemptProjection": 0.4857652789326775, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 7748.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.141666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 0.6249999999999999, "onNet": 0.39967061923583663, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 198.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.47314619615032083, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.22413263946633877, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.47413263946633877, "baseline": 1.0121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6834637080138171, "adjustedSOG": 0.6834637080138171 } }, { "id": "8476917", "name": "Adam Pelech", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.4878048780487805, "currentTOI": 20.490000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 16.351666666666667, "ppShare": 0.03236682400539447, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 10, "currentPPTOI": 0.16, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49299999999999994, "currentIXG": 0.0493, "priorTOI": 20.890650406504065, "priorPPTOI": 0.14735772357723578, "deploymentChange": -0.40065040650406303, "ppTOIChange": 0.01264227642276422, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.028734023243004597, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 241.0, "goalExpected": 0.033339430260981566, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.033339430260981566, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.032789796546602044, "goalProbability": 0.032789796546602044, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1602771383258408, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9354805830190602, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.351666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03236682400539447, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1839244774106541, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 96, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.786293166236979, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.580691056910567, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.032149635489650046, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.772237466363172, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9354805830190602, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.030303030303030304, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 132, "goalExpected": 0.042280800644444255, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.042280800644444255, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04139943288041385, "goalProbability": 0.04139943288041385, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057983019258645685, "modelSOG": 1.1602771383258408, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 241.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.016597510373443983, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.028734023243004597, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1847335422687562, "adjustedSOG": 1.1839562635977967, "reductionPct": 0.06560788930403127, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7826859850820731, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7826859850820731, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7813905206304741, "afterRecentZones": 0.7826859850820731, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7813905206304741, "adjusted": 0.7813905206304741, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.772237466363172, "newChartFactor": 0.772237466363172, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 82.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2915203037420409, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.9833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1839562635977967, "adjustedSOG": 1.1602771383258408, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 34.66092933357069, "btb": { "id": "8476917", "name": "Adam Pelech", "score": 34.66092933357069, "components": { "Goal model": 4.545454545454546, "SOG model": 38.06818181818182, "Unit attack": 37.93103448275862, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.204545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.232475598935224, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1271129363522165, "unitPlayers": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 168 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 200, "fitPct": -7.592084454560933, "index": 92.40791554543907, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 135 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.592084454560933, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476917", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020284", "date": "20221119" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021021121", "date": "20220405" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020985", "date": "20220319" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9083590430814288, "trialBefore6040": 0.9083590430814288, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9083590430814288, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8800000000000001, "attemptProjection": 1.0853719701641462, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 9811.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.351666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.9000000000000004, "onNet": 0.35420106402494955, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 96.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1839244774106541, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7826859850820731, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9826859850820732, "baseline": 1.4878048780487805, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 110, "beforeSOG": 1.1602771383258408, "adjustedSOG": 1.1602771383258408 } }, { "id": "8476952", "name": "Dominic Toninato", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 8.866666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.833333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0054869684499314125, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 8, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.04, "currentIXG": 0.013333333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.154166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -0.28749999999999964, "ppTOIChange": 0.022222222222222223, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11586134959033517, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 11.0, "goalExpected": 0.07673074449353404, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07925400723904381, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07386081188620196, "goalProbability": 0.07619475857803257, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.233394669183061, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.662263513801972, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.833333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0054869684499314125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.028644469385210126, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9872046446469672, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 729, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.63441603317208, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.04375, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.89531144211239, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.662263513801972, "adjustedSOG": 0.662263513801972, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.43710585633662, "afterPlayerForm": 0.43710585633662, "afterRecentDefense": 0.43710585633662, "afterRecentZones": 0.43710585633662, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.43710585633662, "adjusted": 0.43710585633662, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1595237698035354, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.662263513801972, "adjustedSOG": 0.662263513801972, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 9, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860609804527204, "modelSOG": 0.662263513801972, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 8, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 11.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11586134959033517, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -9.145453879882524, "index": 90.85454612011748, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 65.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.145453879882524, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476952", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.30442643224422883, "trialBefore6040": 0.30442643224422883, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.30442643224422883, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.5908783793399067, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1590.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.833333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.4900478192007797, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.028644469385210126, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.43710585633662, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.43710585633662, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 8, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.662263513801972, "adjustedSOG": 0.662263513801972 } }, { "id": "8476967", "name": "Brett Kulak", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.144578313253012, "currentTOI": 18.518181818181816, "currentFiveTOI": 16.736363636363635, "ppShare": 0.008320950965824666, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 83, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.04242424242424243, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.421, "currentIXG": 0.03827272727272727, "priorTOI": 18.960843373493976, "priorPPTOI": 0.13493975903614458, "deploymentChange": -0.44266155531216, "ppTOIChange": -0.09251551661190216, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020264", "date": "20241114", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020166", "date": "20241031", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020069", "date": "20241017", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.040794966547844265, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.04123995319351803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04123995319351803, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04040115648707601, "goalProbability": 0.04040115648707601, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0109078811267533, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6072786529060292, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.736363636363635, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008320950965824666, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04165392408483047, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 28, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8733934757676436, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.98333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024633431085043987, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1749084025358545, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6072786529060292, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020264", "date": "20241114", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020166", "date": "20241031", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020069", "date": "20241017", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0341273748909932, "adjustedSOG": 1.0315386542109728, "reductionPct": 0.2503289964926436, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9604934159829804, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9604934159829804, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9604934159829804, "afterRecentZones": 0.9561788815162802, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9561788815162802, "adjusted": 0.9561788815162802, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1749084025358545, "newChartFactor": 1.1627864436711755, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2051957896187573, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0315386542109728, "adjustedSOG": 1.0109078811267533, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.009708737864077669, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 103, "goalExpected": 0.009633843952639772, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.009633843952639772, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.00958758714080073, "goalProbability": 0.00958758714080073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057886986931713603, "modelSOG": 1.0109078811267533, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 83, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 238.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03361344537815126, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.040794966547844265, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.997030986255126, "btb": { "id": "8476967", "name": "Brett Kulak", "score": 40.997030986255126, "components": { "Goal model": 9.090909090909092, "SOG model": 27.84090909090909, "Unit attack": 79.3103448275862, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.25, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.53846153846154, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.946194171280972, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 141 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": 5.830280084528482, "index": 105.83028008452848, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.60606060606061, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1212121212121215, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.636363636363635, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.515151515151516, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.830280084528482, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476967", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023021310", "date": "20240418" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7609901702854687, "trialBefore6040": 0.7609901702854687, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7609901702854687, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8363636363636362, "attemptProjection": 1.0846231956023247, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 11046.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.736363636363635, "projectedAttempts": 2.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.33713113322856647, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 28.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04165392408483047, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9604934159829804, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9604934159829804, "baseline": 1.144578313253012, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 83, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 128, "beforeSOG": 1.0109078811267533, "adjustedSOG": 1.0109078811267533 } }, { "id": "8476981", "name": "Josh Anderson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 1.2361111111111112, "currentTOI": 13.891666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.558333333333334, "ppShare": 0.009861932938856016, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 22, "currentPPTOI": 0.04166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.5170000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.3517, "priorTOI": 14.022453703703704, "priorPPTOI": 0.08148148148148147, "deploymentChange": -0.1307870370370381, "ppTOIChange": -0.0398148148148148, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1432974930596078, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.25516084800346833, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25516084800346833, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22520813578665733, "goalProbability": 0.22520813578665733, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7806372083378212, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.901225666906994, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.558333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009861932938856016, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04199539776462853, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 0.9764003632370333, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0950710725493815, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 30.681818181818183, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.285416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.017150326797385623, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9445514445007603, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0796719435285127, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0198056938468, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.901225666906994, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8236629367038275, "adjustedSOG": 1.8169767432018584, "reductionPct": 0.36663537802955615, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1153641537656385, "afterPlayerForm": 2.106728508057663, "afterRecentDefense": 2.112845863106394, "afterRecentZones": 2.1153641537656385, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.112845863106394, "adjusted": 2.104220497929023, "playerFactor": 0.9959176552686672, "defenseFactor": 0.9988095238095238, "oldChartFactor": 1.0796719435285127, "newChartFactor": 1.0796719435285127, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9726507713884992, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9944488764791916, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8169767432018584, "adjustedSOG": 1.7806372083378212, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 108, "goalExpected": 0.24197493263445424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24197493263445424, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21492414291133782, "goalProbability": 0.21492414291133782, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855197779074495, "modelSOG": 1.7806372083378212, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 220.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1432974930596078, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.22485084790986, "btb": { "id": "8476981", "name": "Josh Anderson", "score": 65.22485084790986, "components": { "Goal model": 84.0909090909091, "SOG model": 73.29545454545455, "Unit attack": 76.92307692307692, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 89.77272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.81543921916593, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9958866458978637, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 27 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 32, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": 2.6557314509504266, "index": 102.65573145095043, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.462962962962962, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.37037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.43055555555555, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.824074074074075, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.925925925925924, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.986111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.6557314509504266, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476981", "goals": 3, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.23076923076923078, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021020772", "date": "20220129" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.2599970679918218, "trialBefore6040": 2.2599970679918218, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.2599970679918218, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2415919570782803, "attemptProjection": 2.189136350452997, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 6935.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.558333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.6000000000000005, "onNet": 0.5342859875352663, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04199539776462853, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1153641537656385, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2153641537656386, "baseline": 1.2361111111111112, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 48, "beforeSOG": 1.7806372083378212, "adjustedSOG": 1.7806372083378212 } }, { "id": "8477021", "name": "Alex Kerfoot", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.8235294117647058, "currentTOI": 16.741666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.645, "ppShare": 0.2887886150642138, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 34, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 1.3866666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.189, "currentIXG": 0.1189, "priorTOI": 12.786274509803922, "priorPPTOI": 0.34607843137254907, "deploymentChange": 3.955392156862745, "ppTOIChange": 1.0405882352941176, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020914", "date": "20260225", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020584", "date": "20251223", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 9.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020564", "date": "20241227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020469", "date": "20241212", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020115", "date": "20241024", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1344225313302015, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.10571556258726042, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10571556258726042, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10031948551695866, "goalProbability": 0.10031948551695866, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7864422841999308, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3214709371293, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.326923076923077, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.645, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2887886150642138, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3247302599055466, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0046320023276856, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 832, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0098389566993085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.09915014164306, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.562254901960785, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07267079872101806, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07204919882645, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0068326524277516, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9560155117949588, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0793741383874806, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9494627272160834, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3214709371293, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.326923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020914", "date": "20260225", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020584", "date": "20251223", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 9.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020564", "date": "20241227", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020469", "date": "20241212", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020115", "date": "20241024", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vitali Pinchuk", "Alex Kerfoot", "Nils Hoglander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.790050922501202, "adjustedSOG": 0.7864422841999308, "reductionPct": 0.4567602161448914, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6990499997260178, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6990499997260178, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6990499997260178, "afterRecentZones": 0.6990499997260178, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6990499997260178, "adjusted": 0.6990499997260178, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0068326524277516, "newChartFactor": 1.0068326524277516, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.23333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3898998534440643, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0796753277044362, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06868192993284816, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06266753276406295, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06868192993284816, "afterRecentZones": 0.06868192993284816, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06868192993284816, "adjusted": 0.06266753276406295, "playerFactor": 0.9124311565696303, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9560155117949588, "newChartFactor": 0.9560155117949588, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7864422841999308, "adjustedSOG": 0.7864422841999308, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1349506985549136, "goalHistoryGoals": 19, "goalHistoryShots": 136, "goalExpected": 0.11773535672297518, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11773535672297518, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11106872882660739, "goalProbability": 0.11106872882660739, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858139925257756, "modelSOG": 0.7864422841999308, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 34, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 137.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1386861313868613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1344225313302015, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.10744232883821, "btb": { "id": "8477021", "name": "Alex Kerfoot", "score": 41.10744232883821, "components": { "Goal model": 36.93181818181818, "SOG model": 11.363636363636363, "Unit attack": 46.15384615384615, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.21052631578947, "Shot quality": 37.5, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.44306418219462, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.323519244510009, "unitPlayers": [ "Vitali Pinchuk", "Alex Kerfoot", "Nils Hoglander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 140 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": 0.22775508092504992, "index": 100.22775508092505, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -1.4661496068347049, "index": 98.5338503931653, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 60, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.22775508092504992, "zonePPFit": -1.4661496068347049, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477021", "goals": 2, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.18181818181818182, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020584", "date": "20251223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020469", "date": "20241212" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020061", "date": "20221020" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021021133", "date": "20220407" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021020917", "date": "20220310" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8270437493485872, "trialBefore6040": 0.8270437493485872, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8270437493485872, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8462673299526493, "attemptProjection": 0.6891965293650828, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7587.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.645, "projectedAttempts": 1.2, "onNet": 0.515299918194079, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 832.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3247302599055466, "projectedAttempts": 0.09553343220472693, "onNet": 0.5176527670748066, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6990499997260178, "ppAdjusted": 0.06868192993284816, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.767731929658866, "baseline": 0.8235294117647058, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 34, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 157, "beforeSOG": 0.7864422841999308, "adjustedSOG": 0.7864422841999308 } }, { "id": "8477407", "name": "Anthony Duclair", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.1935483870967742, "currentTOI": 12.858333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.455, "ppShare": 0.19116655428186108, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.945, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.322, "currentIXG": 0.1322, "priorTOI": 13.20510752688172, "priorPPTOI": 1.160215053763441, "deploymentChange": -0.3467741935483861, "ppTOIChange": -0.21521505376344108, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13819298652744952, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 145.0, "goalExpected": 0.14428309454402183, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14428309454402183, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1343573453440664, "goalProbability": 0.1343573453440664, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0440695882591886, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.237887385421214, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.455, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19116655428186108, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0863039447066756, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 567, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.745825431333549, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.345690454124188, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.623118279569892, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25312884973110183, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.237887385421214, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 84, "goalExpected": 0.19164133630625235, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19164133630625235, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17439707080845074, "goalProbability": 0.17439707080845074, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857281699225134, "modelSOG": 1.0440695882591886, "historyGames": 116, "seasonGames": { "2024": 44, "2025": 62, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 145.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14482758620689656, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13819298652744952, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0891827122862054, "adjustedSOG": 1.065377130876723, "reductionPct": 2.1856370966001015, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8995506903634065, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8995506903634065, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8598747213476026, "afterRecentZones": 0.8995506903634065, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8598747213476026, "adjusted": 0.8598747213476026, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9127566867989646, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0967642943068274, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5917844166330237, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12005490538241953, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12005490538241953, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12005490538241953, "afterRecentZones": 0.12005490538241953, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12005490538241953, "adjusted": 0.12005490538241953, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.6166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 3.611464968152866, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.065377130876723, "adjustedSOG": 1.0440695882591886, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 50.0068388419361, "btb": { "id": "8477407", "name": "Anthony Duclair", "score": 50.0068388419361, "components": { "Goal model": 53.97727272727273, "SOG model": 28.977272727272727, "Unit attack": 61.53846153846154, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 39.473684210526315, "Shot quality": 42.04545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.37840420449116, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.572731411386786, "unitPlayers": [ "Ondrej Palat", "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "Anthony Duclair" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 79 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": -8.839675364786473, "index": 91.16032463521353, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.174603174603176, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.253968253968257, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.984126984126984, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.809523809523807, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.111111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": -13.634077231462257, "index": 86.36592276853774, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.2105263157894735, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.94736842105263, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.105263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.421052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.839675364786473, "zonePPFit": -13.634077231462257, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477407", "goals": 4, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.3076923076923077, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020989", "date": "20240305" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020966", "date": "20240302" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020661", "date": "20220114" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9332702450398462, "trialBefore6040": 0.9332702450398462, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9332702450398462, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9477098786244101, "attemptProjection": 1.091501312867242, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 6873.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.455, "projectedAttempts": 2.3000000000000003, "onNet": 0.47874787572647814, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 567.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0863039447066756, "projectedAttempts": 0.34485839514497635, "onNet": 0.4981187003927384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8995506903634065, "ppAdjusted": 0.12005490538241953, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.019605595745826, "baseline": 1.1935483870967742, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 126, "beforeSOG": 1.0440695882591886, "adjustedSOG": 1.0440695882591886 } }, { "id": "8477409", "name": "Carter Verhaeghe", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 2.4285714285714284, "currentTOI": 18.27121212121212, "currentFiveTOI": 13.493939393939394, "ppShare": 0.5077271790644962, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 3.733333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.3569999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.30518181818181817, "priorTOI": 17.612770562770564, "priorPPTOI": 2.5194805194805197, "deploymentChange": 0.6584415584415559, "ppTOIChange": 1.2138528138528142, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 9, "goals": 1, "attempts": 12, "toi": 15.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 5.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11675521634505558, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 447.0, "goalExpected": 0.24854572333175556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24854572333175556, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22006580117027455, "goalProbability": 0.22006580117027455, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.12877617902064, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.850662474736133, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.8441558441558445, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.493939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5077271790644962, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0031293358060305, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 1.0349871316563095, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2464, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.038338170154269, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.77319587628866, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.170995670995673, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4928280082116832, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.009004739336493, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.242777492767051, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9621004454855893, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9895023227804057, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.850662474736133, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.8441558441558445, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 9, "goals": 1, "attempts": 12, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sandis Vilmanis", "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15270935960591134, "goalHistoryGoals": 31, "goalHistoryShots": 203, "goalExpected": 0.37702727061034375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.37702727061034375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31410263119890874, "goalProbability": 0.31410263119890874, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128651033407454, "modelSOG": 2.12877617902064, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 447.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11409395973154363, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11675521634505558, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1757267972861216, "adjustedSOG": 2.1722205908373877, "reductionPct": 0.1611510440146846, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.423768851114109, "afterPlayerForm": 1.423768851114109, "afterRecentDefense": 1.423768851114109, "afterRecentZones": 1.4231989421005578, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4231989421005578, "adjusted": 1.4231989421005578, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.242777492767051, "newChartFactor": 1.2416483665286986, "playerRecentAttempts": 21.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2894787644787646, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.027893857083159, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.40157667683029374, "afterPlayerForm": 0.40157667683029374, "afterRecentDefense": 0.39744525766941563, "afterRecentZones": 0.40042245293963774, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3963029084292883, "adjusted": 0.3963029084292883, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 0.9621004454855893, "newChartFactor": 0.9544272002553753, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.966666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0826010544815465, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1722205908373877, "adjustedSOG": 2.12877617902064, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 64.63042678145653, "btb": { "id": "8477409", "name": "Carter Verhaeghe", "score": 64.63042678145653, "components": { "Goal model": 82.38636363636364, "SOG model": 85.22727272727273, "Unit attack": 38.46153846153846, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.36842105263159, "Shot quality": 83.52272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.04347826086956, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.23715981065027, "unitPlayers": [ "Sandis Vilmanis", "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 28 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 199, "fitPct": 8.092583092235031, "index": 108.09258309223503, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.237185929648241, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.240201005025126, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.059296482412062, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.437185929648244, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.822110552763817, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2040201005025124, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": -1.2633184838136913, "index": 98.73668151618631, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.063492063492063, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.61904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.888888888888886, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.523809523809522, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.6349206349206349, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.092583092235031, "zonePPFit": -1.2633184838136913, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477409", "goals": 2, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.2857142857142857, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.6933840214871765, "trialBefore6040": 1.6933840214871765, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.6933840214871765, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.725805531174355, "attemptProjection": 2.2885218883508136, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8906.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.493939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 3.3636363636363633, "onNet": 0.42281662906864326, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2464.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0031293358060305, "projectedAttempts": 1.023794091752056, "onNet": 0.5038841807909604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.423768851114109, "ppAdjusted": 0.40157667683029374, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.007163709762584, "baseline": 2.4285714285714284, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 32, "beforeSOG": 2.12877617902064, "adjustedSOG": 2.12877617902064 } }, { "id": "8477446", "name": "Michael McCarron", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.379746835443038, "currentTOI": 13.613888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 10.384722222222221, "ppShare": 0.0006561679790026247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 20, "currentPPTOI": 0.002777777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.889, "currentIXG": 0.07408333333333333, "priorTOI": 14.031434599156118, "priorPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "deploymentChange": -0.41754571026722864, "ppTOIChange": -0.08055555555555555, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020201", "date": "20251103", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020118", "date": "20251023", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020810", "date": "20250129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020619", "date": "20250103", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08696033802730187, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.13942057470276845, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13942057470276845, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13013789048263935, "goalProbability": 0.13013789048263935, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6032662460327176, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.185100976327403, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.384722222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0006561679790026247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0029769065325167686, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9795287364370838, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.818814878089543, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.36097046413502, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01579413690820139, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.023319689788884, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.185100976327403, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020201", "date": "20251103", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020118", "date": "20251023", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020810", "date": "20250129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020619", "date": "20250103", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020285", "date": "20241117", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6359859653395077, "adjustedSOG": 1.6359859653395077, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5568120519371542, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5568120519371542, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5568120519371542, "afterRecentZones": 1.5568120519371542, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5568120519371542, "adjusted": 1.5568120519371542, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 48.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0231953472459803, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1454411634625494, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6359859653395077, "adjustedSOG": 1.6032662460327176, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08451550634799569, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 206, "goalExpected": 0.14782663402922172, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14782663402922172, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.137419355889223, "goalProbability": 0.137419355889223, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12870744450436275, "modelSOG": 1.6032662460327176, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 209.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06698564593301436, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08696033802730187, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.045281711042584, "btb": { "id": "8477446", "name": "Michael McCarron", "score": 46.045281711042584, "components": { "Goal model": 52.27272727272727, "SOG model": 67.04545454545455, "Unit attack": 56.41025641025641, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 18.75, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 31.482919254658384, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4363102477521164, "unitPlayers": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 107 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": 12.637819272575129, "index": 112.63781927257513, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.48500881834215, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.5855379188712515, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.63492063492063, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.301587301587302, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.05643738977072, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.936507936507936, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.637819272575129, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477446", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.8395765995334978, "trialBefore6040": 1.8395765995334978, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.8395765995334978, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8791666666666664, "attemptProjection": 1.734457437207642, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 7477.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.384722222222221, "projectedAttempts": 2.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.5307822779605263, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0029769065325167686, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5568120519371542, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8068120519371542, "baseline": 1.379746835443038, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 59, "beforeSOG": 1.6032662460327176, "adjustedSOG": 1.6032662460327176 } }, { "id": "8477451", "name": "Ryan Hartman", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 2.1973684210526314, "currentTOI": 13.302777777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 11.9375, "ppShare": 0.29658792650918636, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 1.2555555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.862, "currentIXG": 0.15516666666666667, "priorTOI": 16.74473684210526, "priorPPTOI": 1.6789473684210525, "deploymentChange": -3.4419590643274844, "ppTOIChange": -0.423391812865497, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 2, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 10.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10978583799329486, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.17534410539283818, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17534410539283818, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16083179122496302, "goalProbability": 0.16083179122496302, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5971468506124376, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.769633507853403, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.964601769911504, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.9375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29658792650918636, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3455617526975796, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9795287364370838, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 904, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.330095623058128, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.225705329153605, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.539912280701754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182102951820785, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.023319689788884, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.769633507853403, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.964601769911504, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 2, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 10.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6540357345716394, "adjustedSOG": 1.6297416842984056, "reductionPct": 1.4687742087703737, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9667095223679436, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9360907002003235, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9667095223679436, "afterRecentZones": 0.9667095223679436, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9667095223679436, "adjusted": 0.9360907002003235, "playerFactor": 0.9683267605633803, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.333333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7858285714285715, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1454411634625494, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.32510442121636784, "afterPlayerForm": 0.32011253603151013, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3201489550172992, "afterRecentZones": 0.32510442121636784, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3201489550172992, "adjusted": 0.3152331595952649, "playerFactor": 0.9846452866861031, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.866666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8512241054613936, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6297416842984056, "adjustedSOG": 1.5971468506124376, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11026912042222756, "goalHistoryGoals": 35, "goalHistoryShots": 334, "goalExpected": 0.10306154770318438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10306154770318438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09792854865303453, "goalProbability": 0.09792854865303453, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866625365076556, "modelSOG": 1.5971468506124376, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 76, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 336.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10416666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10978583799329486, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.246148493002046, "btb": { "id": "8477451", "name": "Ryan Hartman", "score": 56.246148493002046, "components": { "Goal model": 61.93181818181818, "SOG model": 65.3409090909091, "Unit attack": 48.717948717948715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 50.56818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 67.58540372670808, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3547524746849784, "unitPlayers": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 57 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": 13.388190726215853, "index": 113.38819072621585, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.91042584434655, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.24375917767988, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.629955947136565, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.700440528634362, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.262848751835538, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.252569750367106, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": 12.433222425675822, "index": 112.43322242567582, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.605263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.921052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.76315789473685, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.657894736842103, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 13.388190726215853, "zonePPFit": 12.433222425675822, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477451", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0427421718000391, "trialBefore6040": 1.0427421718000391, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0427421718000391, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.067906550743657, "attemptProjection": 1.515721336424966, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8595.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.9375, "projectedAttempts": 2.0833333333333335, "onNet": 0.4595010964912281, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 904.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3455617526975796, "projectedAttempts": 0.8037647637795277, "onNet": 0.4792714195331491, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9667095223679436, "ppAdjusted": 0.32510442121636784, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2918139435843115, "baseline": 2.1973684210526314, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 62, "beforeSOG": 1.5971468506124376, "adjustedSOG": 1.5971468506124376 } }, { "id": "8477476", "name": "Artturi Lehkonen", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.1857142857142855, "currentTOI": 18.993939393939396, "currentFiveTOI": 14.868181818181819, "ppShare": 0.2511144130757801, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 1.2803030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.283, "currentIXG": 0.3893636363636364, "priorTOI": 18.481428571428573, "priorPPTOI": 2.1473809523809524, "deploymentChange": 0.5125108225108228, "ppTOIChange": -0.8670779220779221, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 20.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16709356055243074, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.28477159712231614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28477159712231614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24781396384388543, "goalProbability": 0.24781396384388543, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7042643425684876, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.402323448486701, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.041420118343197, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.868181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2511144130757801, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2570559232743481, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9861472997848124, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 845, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.161528976572133, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.1806186938685, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.482142857142858, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39200722664432336, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9889074693422519, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0388457208082924, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.973298178734193, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.027322292801556, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8697050441390937, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.402323448486701, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.041420118343197, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 7, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 24.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7829141935703436, "adjustedSOG": 1.739045247518865, "reductionPct": 2.4605191999526155, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1580615965213767, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1580615965213767, "afterRecentDefense": 1.109543514977497, "afterRecentZones": 1.1580615965213767, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1095435149774973, "adjusted": 1.1095435149774973, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9581040579450871, "oldChartFactor": 1.0388457208082924, "newChartFactor": 1.0388457208082924, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.12494708994709, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8064301980128095, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2654101113772485, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24404783412005535, "afterRecentDefense": 0.26189242960871406, "afterRecentZones": 0.2654101113772485, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.26189242960871406, "adjusted": 0.24081328283532977, "playerFactor": 0.9195121951219513, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.973298178734193, "newChartFactor": 0.973298178734193, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.739045247518865, "adjustedSOG": 1.7042643425684876, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17159763313609466, "goalHistoryGoals": 29, "goalHistoryShots": 169, "goalExpected": 0.3234866283820052, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3234866283820052, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2763783661502487, "goalProbability": 0.2763783661502487, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845108310916042, "modelSOG": 1.7042643425684876, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 318.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1792452830188679, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16709356055243074, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.75431681770019, "btb": { "id": "8477476", "name": "Artturi Lehkonen", "score": 67.75431681770019, "components": { "Goal model": 86.36363636363636, "SOG model": 70.45454545454545, "Unit attack": 89.74358974358974, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 42.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 93.75, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 62.65984654731458, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.298620083409875, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 14 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 183, "fitPct": 1.29485736027641, "index": 101.29485736027641, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.6229508196721314, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.73614363778298, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.52771272443403, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.10304449648712, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.698672911787666, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360657, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": -0.8900607088602328, "index": 99.10993929113977, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 43.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.29485736027641, "zonePPFit": -0.8900607088602328, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477476", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.530374024845734, "trialBefore6040": 1.530374024845734, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.530374024845734, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5221382727178556, "attemptProjection": 1.5066233248975762, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9813.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.868181818181819, "projectedAttempts": 2.272727272727273, "onNet": 0.49046728971962616, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 845.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2570559232743481, "projectedAttempts": 0.4462920437660407, "onNet": 0.5863379558294812, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1580615965213767, "ppAdjusted": 0.2654101113772485, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.514380798807716, "baseline": 2.1857142857142855, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 53, "beforeSOG": 1.7042643425684876, "adjustedSOG": 1.7042643425684876 } }, { "id": "8477479", "name": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 2.08974358974359, "currentTOI": 17.403333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 13.196666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7416988416988417, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 10, "currentPPTOI": 3.2016666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.0589999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.20589999999999997, "priorTOI": 18.482264957264956, "priorPPTOI": 3.1019230769230766, "deploymentChange": -1.0789316239316236, "ppTOIChange": 0.0997435897435901, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1728799930478794, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 304.0, "goalExpected": 0.2413358628648198, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24927210531811142, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2144222643135637, "goalProbability": 0.2206321256140093, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6209861300445596, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3959733489691977, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.182621874210659, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.748047891723061, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.196666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7416988416988417, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8720050895050897, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0137098693522728, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1921, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.850316233309909, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663360198388096, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.594871794871796, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7167813880679987, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9893295110686415, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7837529015918484, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.182621874210659, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.748047891723061, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Jordan Greenway" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.398843483958261, "adjustedSOG": 1.3959733489691977, "reductionPct": 0.20517913704983792, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6118850037868292, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6118850037868292, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6117307990026297, "afterRecentZones": 0.6118850037868292, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6117307990026297, "adjusted": 0.6117307990026297, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9995095033721644, "oldChartFactor": 0.7837529015918484, "newChartFactor": 0.7837529015918484, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.233333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0775721284703321, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9976422045387563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2263584096478792, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22404898973636267, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2240145629508172, "afterRecentZones": 0.22635840964787918, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2240145629508172, "adjusted": 0.2217290561169732, "playerFactor": 0.989797507788162, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9361598440545809, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3959733489691977, "adjustedSOG": 1.3959733489691977, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19653179190751446, "goalHistoryGoals": 34, "goalHistoryShots": 173, "goalExpected": 0.38781164102086113, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38781164102086113, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3214598596439965, "goalProbability": 0.3214598596439965, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284351719134328, "modelSOG": 1.3959733489691977, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 304.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1728799930478794, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.410287006499004, "btb": { "id": "8477479", "name": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "score": 59.410287006499004, "components": { "Goal model": 80.11363636363636, "SOG model": 52.84090909090909, "Unit attack": 20.512820512820515, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 72.1590909090909, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 59.671694764862465, "Goalie H2H": 56.140350877192986 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0198756448674113, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Jordan Greenway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 45 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": -7.208236613605052, "index": 92.79176338639495, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.768154922001075, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.337278106508877, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.67616998386229, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.464228079612692, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.169445938676706, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.584722969338353, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": -11.235707065515939, "index": 88.76429293448406, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.6349206349206349, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 92.38095238095238, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.208236613605052, "zonePPFit": -11.235707065515939, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477479", "goals": 5, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.7142857142857143, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 3, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020472", "date": "20211218" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9964725550965696, "trialBefore6040": 0.9964725550965696, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9964725550965696, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9005931905931905, "attemptProjection": 0.9758936362762262, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7918.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.196666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.4000000000000001, "onNet": 0.4966413551401869, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1921.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.8720050895050897, "projectedAttempts": 0.4837486837486838, "onNet": 0.5601590290855828, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6118850037868292, "ppAdjusted": 0.2263584096478792, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9382434134347084, "baseline": 2.08974358974359, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 84, "beforeSOG": 1.3959733489691977, "adjustedSOG": 1.3959733489691977 } }, { "id": "8477492", "name": "Nathan MacKinnon", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 4.363636363636363, "priorSOG": 4.4, "currentTOI": 21, "currentFiveTOI": 15.733333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7432392273402675, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 48, "currentPPTOI": 3.789393939393939, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.2010000000000005, "currentIXG": 0.47281818181818186, "priorTOI": 22.261875, "priorPPTOI": 4.04875, "deploymentChange": -1.2618749999999999, "ppTOIChange": -0.259356060606061, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 7, "goals": 0, "attempts": 15, "toi": 28.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 8, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 21 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 4.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1278779062589482, "goalHistoryGoals": 92.0, "goalHistoryShots": 720.0, "goalExpected": 0.5178206708610903, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5178206708610903, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4041823832193731, "goalProbability": 0.4041823832193731, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 4.049336480474757, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.787365177195685, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.515393842463014, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.733333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7432392273402675, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7205880048628934, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5454545454545454, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2501, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.783691388236452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.227539364001235, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.941458333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7391046554252199, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.08853672985782, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1348323795011097, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.787365177195685, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.515393842463014, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 5.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 7, "goals": 0, "attempts": 15, "toi": 28.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 8, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 21 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 2, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 24.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 22.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 4.471529259558622, "adjustedSOG": 4.442984946757468, "reductionPct": 0.6383568382144822, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 3.4045253482694546, "afterPlayerForm": 3.3569514936008633, "afterRecentDefense": 3.4045253482694546, "afterRecentZones": 3.4045253482694546, "afterDefenseAndZones": 3.4045253482694546, "adjusted": 3.3569514936008633, "playerFactor": 0.9860262886006199, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1348323795011097, "newChartFactor": 1.1348323795011097, "playerRecentAttempts": 29.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9206124046174917, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1912634322115694, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5692355388737036, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5692355388737036, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5692355388737036, "afterRecentZones": 0.5692355388737036, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5692355388737036, "adjusted": 0.5692355388737036, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.283333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1639518649025995, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 4.442984946757468, "adjustedSOG": 4.354125247822319, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14898989898989898, "goalHistoryGoals": 59, "goalHistoryShots": 396, "goalExpected": 0.5619368621125848, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5619368621125848, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.429896218609927, "goalProbability": 0.429896218609927, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285988313233753, "modelSOG": 4.049336480474757, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 92.0, "historyShots": 720.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12777777777777777, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1278779062589482, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 72.16530632792075, "btb": { "id": "8477492", "name": "Nathan MacKinnon", "score": 72.16530632792075, "components": { "Goal model": 98.29545454545455, "SOG model": 99.43181818181819, "Unit attack": 89.74358974358974, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 96.02272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.2111801242236, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.298620083409875, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 5 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 47, "priorAttempts": 298, "fitPct": 4.494412650036992, "index": 104.49441265003699, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.529630158503497, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.153791232329, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.901613594173924, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.38626303012994, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.275596173068685, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.753105811794945, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": -19.370351791989677, "index": 80.62964820801032, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.821138211382115, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.91869918699187, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.073170731707314, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.609756097560975, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.2520325203252, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3252032520325203, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.494412650036992, "zonePPFit": -19.370351791989677, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477492", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 4.449412570541474, "trialBefore6040": 4.449412570541474, "trialBeforeShotChart": 4.449412570541474, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.706957179521815, "attemptProjection": 4.331473685673592, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 64.0, "sog": 34.0, "seconds": 10384.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.733333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 5.8181818181818175, "onNet": 0.5216015985687904, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2501.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7205880048628934, "projectedAttempts": 1.160359313791706, "onNet": 0.5440795833723143, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 3.4045253482694546, "ppAdjusted": 0.5692355388737036, "other": 0.5454545454545454 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.519215432597703, "baseline": 4.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 2, "beforeSOG": 4.354125247822319, "adjustedSOG": 4.049336480474757 } }, { "id": "8477493", "name": "Aleksander Barkov", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.891666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.766666666666667, "ppShare": 0.3898305084745763, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2, "currentPPTOI": 4.025, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.09899999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.049499999999999995, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 7, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1309117407111118, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.10154499155393268, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10154499155393268, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09655946876556923, "goalProbability": 0.09655946876556923, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7756752068404322, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4220532319391634, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.453416149068323, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3898305084745763, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3057883923985623, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9899523720144526, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 483, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1239, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.009004739336493, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.063047812978239, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.072620281436337, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4220532319391634, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.453416149068323, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 7, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858846918489067, "modelSOG": 0.7756752068404322, "historyGames": 69, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13245033112582782, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1309117407111118, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.798347710447687, "adjustedSOG": 0.7915053131024818, "reductionPct": 0.8570698275527366, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.41345139115073487, "afterPlayerForm": 0.41345139115073487, "afterRecentDefense": 0.41345139115073487, "afterRecentZones": 0.4105688055183172, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4105688055183172, "adjusted": 0.4105688055183172, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.063047812978239, "newChartFactor": 1.0516203715796457, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.533333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.027893857083159, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3848963192969521, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3848963192969521, "afterRecentDefense": 0.38093650758416464, "afterRecentZones": 0.3848963192969521, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.38093650758416464, "adjusted": 0.38093650758416464, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7915053131024818, "adjustedSOG": 0.7756752068404322, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 2.1015937659413026, "index": 102.1015937659413, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 9.9189710977587, "index": 109.9189710977587, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.1015937659413026, "zonePPFit": 9.9189710977587, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477493", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8177856979465838, "trialBefore6040": 0.8177856979465838, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8177856979465838, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8657084824893918, "attemptProjection": 0.7309869384059822, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1052.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.766666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 0.5000000000000001, "onNet": 0.518874161506708, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 483.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.3057883923985623, "projectedAttempts": 0.8593000220118865, "onNet": 0.5146606368387886, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.41345139115073487, "ppAdjusted": 0.3848963192969521, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.798347710447687, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7756752068404322, "adjustedSOG": 0.7756752068404322 } }, { "id": "8477495", "name": "Seth Jones", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.6363636363636362, "priorSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "currentTOI": 24.89090909090909, "currentFiveTOI": 15.84848484848485, "ppShare": 0.6358953224809396, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 29, "currentPPTOI": 4.675757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.9880000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.18072727272727274, "priorTOI": 23.698076923076922, "priorPPTOI": 3.4237179487179485, "deploymentChange": 1.1928321678321687, "ppTOIChange": 1.2520396270396272, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06580651374428563, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 246.0, "goalExpected": 0.14104500698713246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14104500698713246, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13154977551000305, "goalProbability": 0.13154977551000305, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.14332896489871, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.506692160611855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.33246921581335, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.84848484848485, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6358953224809396, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7612244846986242, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3086, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.349981958713941, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.773450664669538, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.87724358974359, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6697031726576532, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.090837178722222, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9104880035961996, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1192795045577826, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.936419891134567, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.506692160611855, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.33246921581335, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07079646017699115, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 113, "goalExpected": 0.13000721603268778, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13000721603268778, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12191090542190954, "goalProbability": 0.12191090542190954, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769053755522828, "modelSOG": 2.14332896489871, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 52, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 246.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06910569105691057, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06580651374428563, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2070025865699483, "adjustedSOG": 2.1870703723456226, "reductionPct": 0.9031350640736568, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5423874002398559, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5393321211007194, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5264571113817893, "afterRecentZones": 1.5342886322727218, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5184419901775184, "adjusted": 1.5154341439413155, "playerFactor": 0.9980191233806361, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.090837178722222, "newChartFactor": 1.0799843478599775, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9881041544368199, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5531996612928085, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5531996612928085, "afterRecentDefense": 0.547508345506005, "afterRecentZones": 0.5526178910881929, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5469325605508057, "adjusted": 0.5469325605508057, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 0.9104880035961996, "newChartFactor": 0.9085542083057947, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0164690382081685, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1870703723456226, "adjustedSOG": 2.14332896489871, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 54.76321893308302, "btb": { "id": "8477495", "name": "Seth Jones", "score": 54.76321893308302, "components": { "Goal model": 52.84090909090909, "SOG model": 85.79545454545455, "Unit attack": 41.37931034482759, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.36842105263159, "Shot quality": 61.36363636363637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.294184076792774, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.15421228022812, "unitPlayers": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 65 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": 3.0279059574073983, "index": 103.0279059574074, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.56839872746554, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.656415694591728, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.047720042417815, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.191940615058323, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5843054082714736, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": -2.983733213460013, "index": 97.01626678653999, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 79.36139332365748, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.018867924528302, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.37010159651669, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.74020319303338, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.0279059574073983, "zonePPFit": -2.983733213460013, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477495", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.589097751555827, "trialBefore6040": 2.589097751555827, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.589097751555827, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.630417599947393, "attemptProjection": 2.469847432208845, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 10460.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.84848484848485, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.43351667539724115, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 3086.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7612244846986242, "projectedAttempts": 1.3163066893955004, "onNet": 0.42613252197430695, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5423874002398559, "ppAdjusted": 0.5531996612928085, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.550132516078119, "baseline": 1.6923076923076923, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 31, "beforeSOG": 2.14332896489871, "adjustedSOG": 2.14332896489871 } }, { "id": "8477500", "name": "Bo Horvat", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.4, "priorSOG": 3.323529411764706, "currentTOI": 20.755000000000003, "currentFiveTOI": 13.790000000000001, "ppShare": 0.7650033715441672, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 34, "currentPPTOI": 3.781666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.096000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.5096, "priorTOI": 20.762990196078434, "priorPPTOI": 3.3963235294117644, "deploymentChange": -0.007990196078431211, "ppTOIChange": 0.38534313725490277, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.1 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12746263100529545, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 503.0, "goalExpected": 0.3587097822655864, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3587097822655864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3014229386128038, "goalProbability": 0.3014229386128038, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.814234881521344, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.266860043509789, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.039224327897752, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.790000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7650033715441672, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.34713165879973, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.048163338808703, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2269, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.022877153065396, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.730028144620048, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.788480392156863, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7409897548958745, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.056723933649289, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.266860043509789, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.039224327897752, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 17.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1411764705882353, "goalHistoryGoals": 36, "goalHistoryShots": 255, "goalExpected": 0.46110719328684263, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.46110719328684263, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3694149207121957, "goalProbability": 0.3694149207121957, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285996649619315, "modelSOG": 2.814234881521344, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 503.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1272365805168986, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12746263100529545, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.1346823075539407, "adjustedSOG": 3.087815318763818, "reductionPct": 1.4951112805652755, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5831079036353153, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5733931518515505, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5831079036353155, "afterRecentZones": 1.5831079036353153, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5831079036353155, "adjusted": 1.5733931518515507, "playerFactor": 0.9938634935992318, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9633501080220961, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0520611851253758, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.1256763344447824, "afterPlayerForm": 1.057279438245008, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1256763344447824, "afterRecentZones": 1.1256763344447824, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1256763344447824, "adjusted": 1.057279438245008, "playerFactor": 0.9392392874337987, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6425941659586519, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.087815318763818, "adjustedSOG": 3.0260590123885414, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 71.96467165421481, "btb": { "id": "8477500", "name": "Bo Horvat", "score": 71.96467165421481, "components": { "Goal model": 94.88636363636364, "SOG model": 94.88636363636364, "Unit attack": 94.87179487179488, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.8421052631579, "Shot quality": 96.5909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.75066548358474, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6967708115746656, "unitPlayers": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 6 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": -8.835241759898352, "index": 91.16475824010165, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.490087232355274, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.918318794607455, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.567803330689927, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.52101506740682, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.370340999206977, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.132434575733545, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": -15.145426990542504, "index": 84.8545730094575, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.116794543904518, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 42.09718670076727, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.183290707587386, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.057971014492754, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.544757033248082, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.835241759898352, "zonePPFit": -15.145426990542504, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477500", "goals": 2, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.15384615384615385, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 23, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021021040", "date": "20220326" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.2908400295004654, "trialBefore6040": 3.2908400295004654, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.2908400295004654, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.0875185434929193, "attemptProjection": 2.9300499326672753, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 8274.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.790000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 3.4000000000000004, "onNet": 0.5293164552005013, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 2269.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.34713165879973, "projectedAttempts": 2.414008766014835, "onNet": 0.5391128697528986, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5831079036353153, "ppAdjusted": 1.1256763344447824, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.0087842380800973, "baseline": 3.323529411764706, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 10, "beforeSOG": 3.0260590123885414, "adjustedSOG": 2.814234881521344 } }, { "id": "8477504", "name": "Josh Morrissey", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 3, "priorSOG": 1.896103896103896, "currentTOI": 20.070833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.479166666666668, "ppShare": 0.6069489685124865, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 2.3291666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5680000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.14200000000000002, "priorTOI": 24.72012987012987, "priorPPTOI": 3.0238095238095237, "deploymentChange": -4.6492965367965375, "ppTOIChange": -0.6946428571428571, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 27.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 27.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0784996857902108, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 330.0, "goalExpected": 0.17682633299170572, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17682633299170572, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1620747081336718, "goalProbability": 0.1620747081336718, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.252573767801713, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.192161820480404, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.880143112701253, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.479166666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6069489685124865, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2729723127035832, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 559, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 921, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.12303664921466, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.7308518253400145, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.844155844155843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6625786231547496, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8613733022798091, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9339500579635105, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9026514243557665, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.192161820480404, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.880143112701253, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 27.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 27.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 23.6 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08860759493670886, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 158, "goalExpected": 0.1465783342364998, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1465783342364998, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13634192431107492, "goalProbability": 0.13634192431107492, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057548648897906486, "modelSOG": 2.252573767801713, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 77, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 330.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08484848484848485, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0784996857902108, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2863557578945324, "adjustedSOG": 2.252573767801713, "reductionPct": 1.4775474016313517, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6452013644625847, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6452013644625847, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6270188930180152, "afterRecentZones": 1.6452013644625847, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6270188930180152, "adjusted": 1.6270188930180152, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8613733022798091, "newChartFactor": 0.8613733022798091, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.91666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6513223012923721, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6513223012923721, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6132014559155757, "afterRecentZones": 0.6513223012923721, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6132014559155756, "adjusted": 0.6132014559155756, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 0.9339500579635105, "newChartFactor": 0.9339500579635105, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.316666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.252573767801713, "adjustedSOG": 2.252573767801713, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": -4.620889924006363, "index": 95.37911007599364, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.69135802469136, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 100 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.209876543209877, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.91358024691358, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.493827160493828, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.4691358024691357, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 46, "fitPct": -2.2016647345496523, "index": 97.79833526545035, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 93.04347826086956, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.6086956521739135, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7391304347826086, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.620889924006363, "zonePPFit": -2.2016647345496523, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477504", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.068301933000379, "trialBefore6040": 3.068301933000379, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.068301933000379, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7967081831711362, "attemptProjection": 2.2963391483387774, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3955.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.479166666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.2500000000000004, "onNet": 0.46002990568207963, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 559.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2729723127035832, "projectedAttempts": 1.756514657980456, "onNet": 0.41776384535005223, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6452013644625847, "ppAdjusted": 0.6513223012923721, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5465236657549566, "baseline": 1.896103896103896, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.252573767801713, "adjustedSOG": 2.252573767801713 } }, { "id": "8477506", "name": "Ryan Pulock", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 1.2236842105263157, "currentTOI": 18.966666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 14.603333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0050573162508428865, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.025, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.324, "currentIXG": 0.0324, "priorTOI": 20.81578947368421, "priorPPTOI": 0.11688596491228069, "deploymentChange": -1.8491228070175438, "ppTOIChange": -0.09188596491228068, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.046564562079663446, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.03923238655663436, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03923238655663436, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03847276282232611, "goalProbability": 0.03847276282232611, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8425374319963521, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.465190595754394, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.603333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0050573162508428865, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.028738199595414703, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8785640078494747, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.098026315789475, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0255014876354019, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7853623323547977, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.465190595754394, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.031578947368421054, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 95, "goalExpected": 0.03241001272159266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03241001272159266, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.031890436543496194, "goalProbability": 0.031890436543496194, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057831103755803796, "modelSOG": 0.8425374319963521, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 196.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04081632653061224, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.046564562079663446, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8603697186051436, "adjustedSOG": 0.8597320734656655, "reductionPct": 0.07411292211816356, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6181600573243622, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6181600573243622, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6170973154252322, "afterRecentZones": 0.6181600573243622, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6170973154252322, "adjusted": 0.6170973154252322, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.7853623323547977, "newChartFactor": 0.7853623323547977, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4041666666666668, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8597320734656655, "adjustedSOG": 0.8425374319963521, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 35.63286306753859, "btb": { "id": "8477506", "name": "Ryan Pulock", "score": 35.63286306753859, "components": { "Goal model": 8.522727272727273, "SOG model": 15.909090909090908, "Unit attack": 37.93103448275862, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.818181818181818, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.71960958296362, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1271129363522165, "unitPlayers": [ "Adam Pelech", "Ryan Pulock" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 162 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": -7.154588921506743, "index": 92.84541107849326, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 91 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.153846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9230769230769231, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.153846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.154588921506743, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477506", "goals": 1, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020284", "date": "20221119" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021021121", "date": "20220405" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020985", "date": "20220319" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5312692823110715, "trialBefore6040": 0.5312692823110715, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5312692823110715, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.51, "attemptProjection": 0.7263201146487245, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 8762.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.603333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.35110654132393265, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.028738199595414703, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6181600573243622, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6181600573243622, "baseline": 1.2236842105263157, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 149, "beforeSOG": 0.8425374319963521, "adjustedSOG": 0.8425374319963521 } }, { "id": "8477903", "name": "Garnet Hathaway", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.36363636363636365, "priorSOG": 0.5151515151515151, "currentTOI": 9.659090909090908, "currentFiveTOI": 7.240909090909091, "ppShare": 0.00164846486709252, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.7009999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.06372727272727272, "priorTOI": 10.402525252525253, "priorPPTOI": 0.03257575757575758, "deploymentChange": -0.7434343434343447, "ppTOIChange": -0.020454545454545454, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021142", "date": "20260326", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020318", "date": "20241123", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.15 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10946352544865051, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.052230086092758074, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.052230086092758074, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05088953540020186, "goalProbability": 0.05088953540020186, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.47714602538778345, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0131826741996233, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.240909090909091, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00164846486709252, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.009750419921448152, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.993836554207879, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.084065660752777, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.137878787878789, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007650395581430064, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0262037506335528, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0131826741996233, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021142", "date": "20260326", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020318", "date": "20241123", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.02702702702702703, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 37, "goalExpected": 0.012261817431545178, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.012261817431545178, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01218694767371731, "goalProbability": 0.01218694767371731, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863048547805808, "modelSOG": 0.47714602538778345, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 66, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09322033898305085, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10946352544865051, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4909823897821147, "adjustedSOG": 0.48688369937528925, "reductionPct": 0.8347937710442843, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4748696395358478, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4680384888578053, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4748696395358478, "afterRecentZones": 0.4748696395358478, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4748696395358478, "adjusted": 0.4680384888578053, "playerFactor": 0.9856146822005308, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 41.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.881962130439597, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.147416398604457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.48688369937528925, "adjustedSOG": 0.47714602538778345, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 33.22048422591901, "btb": { "id": "8477903", "name": "Garnet Hathaway", "score": 33.22048422591901, "components": { "Goal model": 14.204545454545455, "SOG model": 1.1363636363636365, "Unit attack": 2.5641025641025643, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 17.045454545454547, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.745341614906835, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8278853014127077, "unitPlayers": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 171 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 10.22038176087625, "index": 110.22038176087625, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.421052631578949, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.017543859649122, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.228070175438596, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684211, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.017543859649123, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.22038176087625, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477903", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025021142", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020414", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020309", "date": "20211126" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.38415907454753756, "trialBefore6040": 0.38415907454753756, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.38415907454753756, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.41818181818181815, "attemptProjection": 0.5315574608898775, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 4779.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.240909090909091, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.47456712996775247, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.009750419921448152, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4748696395358478, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4748696395358478, "baseline": 0.5151515151515151, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 175, "beforeSOG": 0.47714602538778345, "adjustedSOG": 0.47714602538778345 } }, { "id": "8477932", "name": "Aaron Ekblad", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.3472222222222223, "currentTOI": 20.87222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 14.924074074074074, "ppShare": 0.330068819481207, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 2.3092592592592593, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.894, "currentIXG": 0.09933333333333333, "priorTOI": 22.477777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 2.0127314814814814, "deploymentChange": -1.6055555555555578, "ppTOIChange": 0.29652777777777795, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 24.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04046857507464937, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 216.0, "goalExpected": 0.060367985034728844, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060367985034728844, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05858195791459561, "goalProbability": 0.05858195791459561, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.4917249970717406, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.020349919344832, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.773857257417803, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.924074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.330068819481207, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9523070568041452, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1247, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3778, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.641553618689983, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.796434732604945, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.705324074074074, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3937043527083871, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0678294806520343, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8839999410402366, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0956719072010626, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9091774139607316, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.020349919344832, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.773857257417803, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 24.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 25.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.037037037037037035, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 108, "goalExpected": 0.04875845515998148, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04875845515998148, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047588848083631924, "goalProbability": 0.047588848083631924, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05788069723589201, "modelSOG": 1.4917249970717406, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 72, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 216.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.032407407407407406, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04046857507464937, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.538963274906271, "adjustedSOG": 1.522168364358919, "reductionPct": 1.0913132770094758, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.195232088463487, "afterPlayerForm": 1.195232088463487, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1828873348570372, "afterRecentZones": 1.1871408166553832, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1748796323889787, "adjusted": 1.1748796323889787, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.0678294806520343, "newChartFactor": 1.052058156196462, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.38333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1015916891953463, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2493363326765942, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24478029404952725, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24677116153554587, "afterRecentZones": 0.248755117817198, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24619592621217665, "adjusted": 0.24169727117218257, "playerFactor": 0.9817273376159886, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 0.8839999410402366, "newChartFactor": 0.8779839471610786, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8296739853626082, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.522168364358919, "adjustedSOG": 1.4917249970717406, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 45.64771535053194, "btb": { "id": "8477932", "name": "Aaron Ekblad", "score": 45.64771535053194, "components": { "Goal model": 18.75, "SOG model": 59.65909090909091, "Unit attack": 82.75862068965517, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 53.94736842105263, "Shot quality": 27.84090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.733806566104704, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0173666283237486, "unitPlayers": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 110 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": 2.2609826884011426, "index": 102.26098268840114, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.902636916835704, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.288032454361055, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.9087221095334685, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.647058823529413, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.874239350912779, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -3.8666686319921126, "index": 96.13333136800789, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.2609826884011426, "zonePPFit": -3.8666686319921126, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477932", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4706551254600284, "trialBefore6040": 1.4706551254600284, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4706551254600284, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4887034459746062, "attemptProjection": 1.8448778407500006, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8059.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.924074074074074, "projectedAttempts": 3.111111111111111, "onNet": 0.37156261612783353, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1247.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.9523070568041452, "projectedAttempts": 0.8454256701477453, "onNet": 0.389440872783947, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.195232088463487, "ppAdjusted": 0.2493363326765942, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6667906433623034, "baseline": 1.3472222222222223, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 72, "beforeSOG": 1.4917249970717406, "adjustedSOG": 1.4917249970717406 } }, { "id": "8477933", "name": "Sam Reinhart", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 2.59375, "currentTOI": 20.365151515151517, "currentFiveTOI": 12.775757575757575, "ppShare": 0.6913249536369256, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 35, "currentPPTOI": 5.083333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.104, "currentIXG": 0.5549090909090909, "priorTOI": 21.28671875, "priorPPTOI": 3.97578125, "deploymentChange": -0.9215672348484816, "ppTOIChange": 1.1075520833333332, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 17.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1670075080679889, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 414.0, "goalExpected": 0.43189551411971466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.43189551411971466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3507227865577102, "goalProbability": 0.3507227865577102, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.586084416898728, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.258064516129032, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.09538002980626, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.775757575757575, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6913249536369256, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.089082354557318, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9899523720144526, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3355, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.74616555873287, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.96914914521517, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.024479166666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7776906149394841, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0262037506335528, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.138509701118746, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1845339335420393, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.258064516129032, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.09538002980626, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 22.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sandis Vilmanis", "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17435897435897435, "goalHistoryGoals": 34, "goalHistoryShots": 195, "goalExpected": 0.46326941370248786, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.46326941370248786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3707769116514943, "goalProbability": 0.3707769116514943, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12841859146946294, "modelSOG": 2.586084416898728, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 73.0, "historyShots": 414.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17632850241545894, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1670075080679889, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.8688450452685172, "adjustedSOG": 2.8374856450501733, "reductionPct": 1.0931019181417256, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.609270829566213, "afterPlayerForm": 1.609270829566213, "afterRecentDefense": 1.609270829566213, "afterRecentZones": 1.609270829566213, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.609270829566213, "adjusted": 1.609270829566213, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.138509701118746, "newChartFactor": 1.138509701118746, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.516065573770492, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.147416398604457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.17024363982071, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1306237307057434, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1582041781801273, "afterRecentZones": 1.1691832954531955, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1571547426310025, "adjusted": 1.1179779727901369, "playerFactor": 0.9661438799863621, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.1845339335420393, "newChartFactor": 1.1825425690759181, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.916666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8021518230723251, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.8374856450501733, "adjustedSOG": 2.78073593214917, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 68.11826658140814, "btb": { "id": "8477933", "name": "Sam Reinhart", "score": 68.11826658140814, "components": { "Goal model": 96.02272727272727, "SOG model": 94.31818181818181, "Unit attack": 38.46153846153846, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.36842105263159, "Shot quality": 98.29545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.23513753327418, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.23715981065027, "unitPlayers": [ "Sandis Vilmanis", "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 11 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": 4.616990037291529, "index": 104.61699003729153, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.76358695652174, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.839673913043477, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.842391304347828, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.013586956521738, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.902173913043477, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.638586956521738, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": 6.15113111806798, "index": 106.15113111806798, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.4489795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.136054421768705, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.6281179138322, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.891156462585033, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.487528344671203, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.40816326530612246, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.616990037291529, "zonePPFit": 6.15113111806798, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477933", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.0158510465888106, "trialBefore6040": 3.0158510465888106, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.0158510465888106, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.311460577337354, "attemptProjection": 2.7930229068910366, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8432.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.775757575757575, "projectedAttempts": 2.2727272727272725, "onNet": 0.5661677631578947, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 3355.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.089082354557318, "projectedAttempts": 2.0475881835041116, "onNet": 0.5291924840058436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.609270829566213, "ppAdjusted": 1.17024363982071, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.0522417421141954, "baseline": 2.59375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 11, "beforeSOG": 2.78073593214917, "adjustedSOG": 2.586084416898728 } }, { "id": "8477935", "name": "Sam Bennett", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 2.6578947368421053, "currentTOI": 18.33787878787879, "currentFiveTOI": 13.648484848484848, "ppShare": 0.4654852668452504, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 27, "currentPPTOI": 3.4227272727272724, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.737, "currentIXG": 0.3397272727272727, "priorTOI": 18.492543859649125, "priorPPTOI": 3.1146929824561402, "deploymentChange": -0.15466507177033506, "ppTOIChange": 0.30803429027113216, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11730713506670198, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 470.0, "goalExpected": 0.2771822747560919, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2771822747560919, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24208366449598778, "goalProbability": 0.24208366449598778, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.3628765172594437, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.19360568383659, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.56175298804781, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.648484848484848, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4654852668452504, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.753274825318922, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9899523720144526, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2259, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.981357413341101, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.392170668168697, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.551315789473685, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6092557282607064, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.009004739336493, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0586098881988306, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0887604804739053, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.19360568383659, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.56175298804781, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13004484304932734, "goalHistoryGoals": 29, "goalHistoryShots": 223, "goalExpected": 0.3436241045290307, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3436241045290307, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2908045386860112, "goalProbability": 0.2908045386860112, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865066988020132, "modelSOG": 2.3628765172594437, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 76, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 470.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1148936170212766, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11730713506670198, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.608506152336653, "adjustedSOG": 2.5925790182789594, "reductionPct": 0.6105844927153492, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8520688417985562, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8520688417985562, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8520688417985562, "afterRecentZones": 1.8520688417985562, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8520688417985562, "adjusted": 1.8520688417985562, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2834795650543682, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.027893857083159, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.45078431480718945, "afterPlayerForm": 0.429613749232882, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4461466476739342, "afterRecentZones": 0.44977205684874566, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.44514480382110605, "adjusted": 0.42423909137769994, "playerFactor": 0.9530361530361531, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.0586098881988306, "newChartFactor": 1.0541235815043466, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.628023352793995, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5925790182789594, "adjustedSOG": 2.54072743791338, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 67.86302812639033, "btb": { "id": "8477935", "name": "Sam Bennett", "score": 67.86302812639033, "components": { "Goal model": 84.6590909090909, "SOG model": 90.9090909090909, "Unit attack": 97.43589743589743, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 53.94736842105263, "Shot quality": 89.20454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.84649511978704, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8447996322157705, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 12 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 211, "fitPct": 9.192491597136367, "index": 109.19249159713637, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.676266861100984, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.731316077287637, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.86912139992709, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.604812249362013, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.843601895734597, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.274881516587678, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": 1.9536629399610206, "index": 101.95366293996102, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.38461538461539, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.846153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.192491597136367, "zonePPFit": 1.9536629399610206, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477935", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.441418277669996, "trialBefore6040": 2.441418277669996, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.441418277669996, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.632259689077875, "attemptProjection": 2.518901169588162, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 9008.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.648484848484848, "projectedAttempts": 3.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.5113244969040248, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2259.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.753274825318922, "projectedAttempts": 0.8044096435194724, "onNet": 0.5291313729910787, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8520688417985562, "ppAdjusted": 0.45078431480718945, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5755804293330185, "baseline": 2.6578947368421053, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 17, "beforeSOG": 2.54072743791338, "adjustedSOG": 2.3628765172594437 } }, { "id": "8477938", "name": "Haydn Fleury", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.6842105263157895, "currentTOI": 16.119444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 13.047222222222222, "ppShare": 0.2646880678376741, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 1.2138888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.28600000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.04766666666666667, "priorTOI": 13.927192982456141, "priorPPTOI": 0.16052631578947368, "deploymentChange": 2.1922514619883025, "ppTOIChange": 1.0533625730994152, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04576565499687224, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 70.0, "goalExpected": 0.038688932630929575, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038688932630929575, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037950075055114635, "goalProbability": 0.037950075055114635, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8453704559363062, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0657866723440494, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.475972540045767, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.047222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2646880678376741, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4273304058146576, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 437, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1651, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.826379542395693, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.836065573770492, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.73157894736842, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03517460490100432, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8360708842904117, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8949458565177912, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8649543358544739, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0657866723440494, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.475972540045767, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Haydn Fleury", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0625, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 32, "goalExpected": 0.04642966248947672, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04642966248947672, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04536829537386023, "goalProbability": 0.04536829537386023, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578016134946828, "modelSOG": 0.8453704559363062, "historyGames": 83, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 38, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 70.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02857142857142857, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04576565499687224, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8645745335054213, "adjustedSOG": 0.8453704559363062, "reductionPct": 2.2212171218196852, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6633949311478808, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6531137119434975, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6533645291399959, "afterRecentZones": 0.6633949311478808, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.653364529139996, "adjusted": 0.6432387599653148, "playerFactor": 0.9845021137158924, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8360708842904117, "newChartFactor": 0.8360708842904117, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.76666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9019163562348785, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3214222738172952, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3214222738172952, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30957164905133583, "afterRecentZones": 0.32041072143499316, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.30957164905133583, "adjusted": 0.30957164905133583, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 0.8949458565177912, "newChartFactor": 0.8896051633472178, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3613707165109035, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8453704559363062, "adjustedSOG": 0.8453704559363062, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 35.44771915136075, "btb": { "id": "8477938", "name": "Haydn Fleury", "score": 35.44771915136075, "components": { "Goal model": 7.954545454545454, "SOG model": 17.045454545454547, "Unit attack": 51.724137931034484, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 40.78947368421053, "Shot quality": 22.15909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.581780538302276, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.305873476988271, "unitPlayers": [ "Haydn Fleury", "Dylan DeMelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 164 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": -5.464303856986277, "index": 94.53569614301372, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.796992481203, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.939849624060152, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -3.501804782740294, "index": 96.4981952172597, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.464303856986277, "zonePPFit": -3.501804782740294, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477938", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0114268470302883, "trialBefore6040": 1.0114268470302883, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0114268470302883, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.905680567775952, "attemptProjection": 1.0639538421544001, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 4697.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.047222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 2.166666666666667, "onNet": 0.38066482631700027, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 437.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4273304058146576, "projectedAttempts": 0.7838885523924893, "onNet": 0.4255002128565347, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6633949311478808, "ppAdjusted": 0.3214222738172952, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.984817204965176, "baseline": 0.6842105263157895, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 38, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 147, "beforeSOG": 0.8453704559363062, "adjustedSOG": 0.8453704559363062 } }, { "id": "8477950", "name": "Tony DeAngelo", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.9473684210526316, "currentTOI": 16.33833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.815000000000001, "ppShare": 0.19318948078219825, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.9550000000000001, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.543, "currentIXG": 0.0543, "priorTOI": 19.140570175438597, "priorPPTOI": 1.4910087719298246, "deploymentChange": -2.802236842105266, "ppTOIChange": -0.5360087719298245, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 24.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04697568762009935, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 236.0, "goalExpected": 0.06213771418391494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06213771418391494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06024653950151845, "goalProbability": 0.06024653950151845, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3227632703630348, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.454944313196085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.282722513089006, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.815000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19318948078219825, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0977992245448416, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 573, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.950877923700686, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.412854831592881, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.8484649122807, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3252994642271999, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7670704353644142, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.454944313196085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.282722513089006, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 24.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03773584905660377, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 159, "goalExpected": 0.0653300984535163, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0653300984535163, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06324181009494209, "goalProbability": 0.06324181009494209, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057838310403533794, "modelSOG": 1.3227632703630348, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 236.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0423728813559322, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04697568762009935, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.360907665281893, "adjustedSOG": 1.3497584391459538, "reductionPct": 0.8192492716711741, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9005472249589489, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8864375951792337, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8992799671177187, "afterRecentZones": 0.9005472249589489, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8992799671177187, "adjusted": 0.8851901925310235, "playerFactor": 0.9843321600592813, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.7670704353644142, "newChartFactor": 0.7670704353644142, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9059650878363354, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06938660314245154, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06616159201047844, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06938660314245154, "afterRecentZones": 0.06938660314245154, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06938660314245154, "adjusted": 0.06616159201047844, "playerFactor": 0.9535211267605634, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3497584391459538, "adjustedSOG": 1.3227632703630348, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 43.204387638716526, "btb": { "id": "8477950", "name": "Tony DeAngelo", "score": 43.204387638716526, "components": { "Goal model": 19.886363636363637, "SOG model": 48.86363636363637, "Unit attack": 89.65517241379311, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 39.473684210526315, "Shot quality": 15.340909090909092, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.91304347826087, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0695791462892164, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 124 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 177, "fitPct": -7.764318821186194, "index": 92.2356811788138, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.93079096045197, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 107 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.509887005649718, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.389830508474576, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.985875706214689, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.05367231638418, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1299435028248588, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": -8.876656047126474, "index": 91.12334395287353, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 89.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.764318821186194, "zonePPFit": -8.876656047126474, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477950", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020907", "date": "20240224" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020238", "date": "20221113" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.071788490866105, "trialBefore6040": 1.071788490866105, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.071788490866105, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0327098786244102, "attemptProjection": 0.9071577775783907, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8889.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.815000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.4000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4186741088915002, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 573.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0977992245448416, "projectedAttempts": 0.1149527983816588, "onNet": 0.43092179400495834, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9005472249589489, "ppAdjusted": 0.06938660314245154, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9699338281014005, "baseline": 1.9473684210526316, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 91, "beforeSOG": 1.3227632703630348, "adjustedSOG": 1.3227632703630348 } }, { "id": "8477987", "name": "Ryan Donato", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.5061728395061729, "currentTOI": 11.521666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.188333333333334, "ppShare": 0.22934362934362934, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.99, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.45, "currentIXG": 0.145, "priorTOI": 14.729629629629628, "priorPPTOI": 1.3804526748971193, "deploymentChange": -3.207962962962961, "ppTOIChange": -0.3904526748971193, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14628087711774995, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.19558685464676515, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20201865753228526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1776480846228344, "goalProbability": 0.18292031689054564, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.527223226771123, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3370637263087093, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.889088827089808, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.0606060606060606, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.188333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22934362934362934, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1972779922779924, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9786624513869284, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 594, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.107522596483397, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.878223282158295, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.90761316872428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.31899011030810187, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8650109815847271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8041695211738639, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.889088827089808, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.0606060606060606, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Teuvo Teravainen", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3381101337169925, "adjustedSOG": 1.3370637263087093, "reductionPct": 0.07820039486410302, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9922624740154946, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9920816524008603, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9922624740154946, "afterRecentZones": 0.9922624740154946, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9922624740154946, "adjusted": 0.9920816524008603, "playerFactor": 0.9998177683633419, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8041695211738639, "newChartFactor": 0.8041695211738639, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9987256567768921, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0242459966597897, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13380585584204427, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13380585584204427, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1322426651095399, "afterRecentZones": 0.13380585584204427, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1322426651095399, "adjusted": 0.1322426651095399, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5172413793103445, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3370637263087093, "adjustedSOG": 1.3370637263087093, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12781954887218044, "goalHistoryGoals": 17, "goalHistoryShots": 133, "goalExpected": 0.16616022276042341, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16616022276042341, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1530894710246261, "goalProbability": 0.1530894710246261, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852844880983982, "modelSOG": 1.3370637263087093, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 316.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1518987341772152, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14628087711774995, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.11868885990331, "btb": { "id": "8477987", "name": "Ryan Donato", "score": 49.11868885990331, "components": { "Goal model": 67.04545454545455, "SOG model": 50.56818181818182, "Unit attack": 12.820512820512821, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.578947368421055, "Shot quality": 48.01136363636363, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 42.45785270629991, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9489157750849249, "unitPlayers": [ "Teuvo Teravainen", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 84 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -6.527682627537871, "index": 93.47231737246213, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.585365853658537, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.097560975609756, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.46341463414634, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.609756097560975, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.560975609756097, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.682926829268293, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -19.82247664120905, "index": 80.17752335879095, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 43.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.527682627537871, "zonePPFit": -19.82247664120905, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477987", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.12123411844119, "trialBefore6040": 1.12123411844119, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.12123411844119, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0527965952965954, "attemptProjection": 1.3993400644184826, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 6113.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.188333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.4480589093337552, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 594.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1972779922779924, "projectedAttempts": 0.36281151281151286, "onNet": 0.4981187003927384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9922624740154946, "ppAdjusted": 0.13380585584204427, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.226068329857539, "baseline": 1.5061728395061729, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 88, "beforeSOG": 1.3370637263087093, "adjustedSOG": 1.3370637263087093 } }, { "id": "8478038", "name": "Devon Toews", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.6911764705882353, "currentTOI": 20.37878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 16.40909090909091, "ppShare": 0.2763744427934621, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 1.4090909090909092, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.001, "currentIXG": 0.09099999999999998, "priorTOI": 22.368872549019606, "priorPPTOI": 1.3208333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.9900846702317274, "ppTOIChange": 0.08825757575757587, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 24.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 24.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 25.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05900924434151669, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 269.0, "goalExpected": 0.0938383618135568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0938383618135568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08957008941231837, "goalProbability": 0.08957008941231837, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5902315452552855, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.653739612188366, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.40909090909091, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2763744427934621, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3835053356747264, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 930, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.446335204270677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.016329560215253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.860049019607843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2411198680351906, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1274619637700596, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.653739612188366, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 24.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 24.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 25.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 24.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6269379509350892, "adjustedSOG": 1.6226852502604954, "reductionPct": 0.2613929235684487, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.402294089348143, "afterPlayerForm": 1.402294089348143, "afterRecentDefense": 1.402294089348143, "afterRecentZones": 1.3952062548904869, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3952062548904869, "adjusted": 1.3952062548904869, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1274619637700596, "newChartFactor": 1.116542224475455, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 82.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1557205022706523, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.466666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6226852502604954, "adjustedSOG": 1.5902315452552855, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03875968992248062, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 129, "goalExpected": 0.05641986897124564, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05641986897124564, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05485778332100097, "goalProbability": 0.05485778332100097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057744111620196624, "modelSOG": 1.5902315452552855, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 269.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05947955390334572, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05900924434151669, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.2618130053324, "btb": { "id": "8478038", "name": "Devon Toews", "score": 50.2618130053324, "components": { "Goal model": 32.95454545454545, "SOG model": 64.20454545454545, "Unit attack": 96.55172413793103, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 42.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 22.727272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 62.148337595907925, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.321455676036357, "unitPlayers": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 76 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 4.248732125668653, "index": 104.24873212566865, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 72.64285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.071428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.248732125668653, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478038", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5135509798177524, "trialBefore6040": 1.5135509798177524, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5135509798177524, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6454545454545457, "attemptProjection": 1.522769996878104, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 10830.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.40909090909091, "projectedAttempts": 3.0909090909090913, "onNet": 0.4045462387853692, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 930.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3835053356747264, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.402294089348143, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.584112271166325, "baseline": 1.6911764705882353, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 64, "beforeSOG": 1.5902315452552855, "adjustedSOG": 1.5902315452552855 } }, { "id": "8478043", "name": "Sam Lafferty", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.3103448275862069, "currentTOI": 10.05, "currentFiveTOI": 9.336666666666666, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.271, "currentIXG": 0.054200000000000005, "priorTOI": 8.59712643678161, "priorPPTOI": 0.010344827586206896, "deploymentChange": 1.4528735632183913, "ppTOIChange": -0.010344827586206896, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020558", "date": "20241227", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020085", "date": "20241019", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10958343383327009, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.06188948252930244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06188948252930244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06001323398938243, "goalProbability": 0.06001323398938243, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.564770425276749, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.141021063905748, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.336666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9899523720144526, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1789, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.1809369951534734, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.537931034482758, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002390446085439592, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.009004739336493, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1924038795034124, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.141021063905748, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020558", "date": "20241227", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020085", "date": "20241019", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 13, "goalExpected": 0.02866785143020561, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02866785143020561, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028260827353484494, "goalProbability": 0.028260827353484494, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862099714823022, "modelSOG": 0.564770425276749, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 29, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 63.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07936507936507936, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10958343383327009, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5801418402368352, "adjustedSOG": 0.5762963523232133, "reductionPct": 0.6628530553928091, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7600065153372542, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7600065153372542, "afterRecentDefense": 0.760006515337254, "afterRecentZones": 0.753597368814551, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.753597368814551, "adjusted": 0.753597368814551, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1924038795034124, "newChartFactor": 1.1757902030295493, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.68333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.027893857083159, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5762963523232133, "adjustedSOG": 0.564770425276749, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 6.413462650113743, "index": 106.41346265011374, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.85714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.57142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.413462650113743, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478043", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8418468892413706, "trialBefore6040": 0.8418468892413706, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8418468892413706, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9199999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.6000130306745084, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2801.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.336666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5356833133971292, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7600065153372542, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7600065153372542, "baseline": 0.3103448275862069, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.564770425276749, "adjustedSOG": 0.564770425276749 } }, { "id": "8478055", "name": "Gustav Forsling", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.4, "currentTOI": 21.233333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 16.776666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0811642214860388, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 0.5716666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.591, "currentIXG": 0.0591, "priorTOI": 22.62875, "priorPPTOI": 0.5552083333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.3954166666666659, "ppTOIChange": 0.016458333333333353, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 23.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 22.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04710907091156964, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 320.0, "goalExpected": 0.06936658100742311, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06936658100742311, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06701539705311553, "goalProbability": 0.06701539705311553, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.472467609001119, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5763957878005166, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.776666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0811642214860388, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.48007407248060346, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 343, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4226, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.030618073803267, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.235416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10860263254411344, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1032656608225961, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1320320450460037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5763957878005166, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 23.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 22.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 22.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.02459016393442623, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 122, "goalExpected": 0.03366686809792171, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03366686809792171, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.033106445919165305, "goalProbability": 0.033106445919165305, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057858097828592504, "modelSOG": 1.472467609001119, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 320.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04710907091156964, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5116608012384662, "adjustedSOG": 1.5025179683684888, "reductionPct": 0.6048203977034317, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2689030664398468, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2689030664398468, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2557974145276685, "afterRecentZones": 1.26692719179845, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2538419473751943, "adjusted": 1.2538419473751943, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.1032656608225961, "newChartFactor": 1.0994143305506607, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0443505231199353, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.017198268957597154, "afterPlayerForm": 0.017198268957597154, "afterRecentDefense": 0.017021333238953867, "afterRecentZones": 0.017198268957597154, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.017021333238953867, "adjusted": 0.017021333238953867, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.0787878787878786, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5025179683684888, "adjustedSOG": 1.472467609001119, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 44.50226765096116, "btb": { "id": "8478055", "name": "Gustav Forsling", "score": 44.50226765096116, "components": { "Goal model": 23.295454545454547, "SOG model": 59.09090909090909, "Unit attack": 82.75862068965517, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 18.181818181818183, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.297249334516415, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0173666283237486, "unitPlayers": [ "Gustav Forsling", "Aaron Ekblad" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 119 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": 3.442188694086539, "index": 103.44218869408654, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.6120826709062, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 110 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.610492845786964, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.0810810810810811, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.615262321144673, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8108108108108109, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.2702702702702703, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.442188694086539, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478055", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-25-2026", "availabilityCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.3564062708809974, "trialBefore6040": 1.3564062708809974, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.3564062708809974, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4320320450460038, "attemptProjection": 1.7401706257488843, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 10066.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.776666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 3.6, "onNet": 0.3486265588136165, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 343.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.48007407248060346, "projectedAttempts": 0.08397797186249623, "onNet": 0.4113139508677034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2689030664398468, "ppAdjusted": 0.017198268957597154, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.586101335397444, "baseline": 1.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 73, "beforeSOG": 1.472467609001119, "adjustedSOG": 1.472467609001119 } }, { "id": "8478133", "name": "Jake Evans", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.1029411764705883, "currentTOI": 13.918333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.621666666666666, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.198, "currentIXG": 0.11979999999999999, "priorTOI": 15.356372549019609, "priorPPTOI": 0.04828431372549019, "deploymentChange": -1.4380392156862758, "ppTOIChange": -0.04828431372549019, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1509626451325078, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 164.0, "goalExpected": 0.14989002063686152, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14989002063686152, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13919735825432633, "goalProbability": 0.13919735825432633, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.992894768803867, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.117962930885155, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.621666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0056146327014217, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.018853882411312, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.855882352941178, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010162944322113874, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0726303317535546, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0884473331377778, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.117962930885155, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Owen Beck" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0457944571865823, "adjustedSOG": 1.0131579273508846, "reductionPct": 3.1207403722044114, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6076966443305782, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5817266216382143, "afterRecentDefense": 0.578003509295892, "afterRecentZones": 0.6076966443305782, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.578003509295892, "adjusted": 0.5533024279377486, "playerFactor": 0.957264824588637, "defenseFactor": 0.9511382277461883, "oldChartFactor": 1.0884473331377778, "newChartFactor": 1.0884473331377778, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.36666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6771053248885761, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7721603040897252, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0131579273508846, "adjustedSOG": 0.992894768803867, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14634146341463414, "goalHistoryGoals": 12, "goalHistoryShots": 82, "goalExpected": 0.16067446916099762, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16067446916099762, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1484307619599608, "goalProbability": 0.1484307619599608, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285413831498206, "modelSOG": 0.992894768803867, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 164.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16463414634146342, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1509626451325078, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.56667530192375, "btb": { "id": "8478133", "name": "Jake Evans", "score": 48.56667530192375, "components": { "Goal model": 55.68181818181818, "SOG model": 26.136363636363637, "Unit attack": 64.1025641025641, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 38.63636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 38.99733806566105, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.616337889834962, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Owen Beck" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 90 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": 2.948244437925922, "index": 102.94824443792592, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.63636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.54545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.09090909090909, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.727272727272728, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.948244437925922, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478133", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020772", "date": "20220129" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9296726190716526, "trialBefore6040": 0.9296726190716526, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9296726190716526, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.975, "attemptProjection": 1.0403932886611564, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5773.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.621666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.2, "onNet": 0.49133197156196945, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6076966443305782, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0076966443305782, "baseline": 1.1029411764705883, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 131, "beforeSOG": 0.992894768803867, "adjustedSOG": 0.992894768803867 } }, { "id": "8478147", "name": "Bokondji Imama", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 7.718181818181819, "currentFiveTOI": 7.581818181818182, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 7, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.34299999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.03118181818181818, "priorTOI": 7.641666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 0.07651515151515209, "ppTOIChange": 0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11647592659876312, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.09217029582303995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09217029582303995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08805016492697208, "goalProbability": 0.08805016492697208, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7913248558266351, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.0359712230215825, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.581818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 1.0349871316563095, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.851690294438386, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 7.641666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.0359712230215825, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 8, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286063526525281, "modelSOG": 0.7913248558266351, "historyGames": 29, "seasonGames": { "2024": 16, "2025": 2, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 19.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11647592659876312, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.80747434268024, "adjustedSOG": 0.80747434268024, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6791239044670667, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6791239044670667, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6791239044670667, "afterRecentZones": 0.6791239044670667, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6791239044670667, "adjusted": 0.6791239044670667, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 41.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0028056112224448, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1587167116210157, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.80747434268024, "adjustedSOG": 0.7913248558266351, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 35.05754662004662, "btb": { "id": "8478147", "name": "Bokondji Imama", "score": 35.05754662004662, "components": { "Goal model": 31.25, "SOG model": 11.931818181818182, "Unit attack": 2.5641025641025643, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 4.545454545454546, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8278853014127077, "unitPlayers": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 166 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 12.352913397406937, "index": 112.35291339740694, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.352913397406937, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478147", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7001145909948416, "trialBefore6040": 0.7001145909948416, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7001145909948416, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7318181818181817, "attemptProjection": 0.6264296271159518, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5004.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.581818181818182, "projectedAttempts": 1.0909090909090908, "onNet": 0.5126620440156768, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6791239044670667, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6791239044670667, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 156, "beforeSOG": 0.7913248558266351, "adjustedSOG": 0.7913248558266351 } }, { "id": "8478233", "name": "Andrew Mangiapane", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.9354838709677419, "currentTOI": 5.383333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 5.333333333333333, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.148, "currentIXG": 0.148, "priorTOI": 12.484408602150538, "priorPPTOI": 0.13709677419354838, "deploymentChange": -7.101075268817204, "ppTOIChange": -0.13709677419354838, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020338", "date": "20251122", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021110", "date": "20250322", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020849", "date": "20250204", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13723393922594582, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.12326981805811277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12732350138420137, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11597489555837945, "goalProbability": 0.11955119988423557, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3576304325856122, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8982458621635707, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.25, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 5.333333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0137098693522728, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 240, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.326923076923077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.117647058823529, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.853763440860215, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0316798365624118, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8650109815847271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8655105542384104, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.25, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020338", "date": "20251122", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021110", "date": "20250322", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020849", "date": "20250204", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020335", "date": "20241125", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Andrew Mangiapane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8982458621635707, "adjustedSOG": 0.8982458621635707, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8734205229607901, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8734205229607901, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8734205229607901, "afterRecentZones": 0.8734205229607901, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8734205229607901, "adjusted": 0.8734205229607901, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8655105542384104, "newChartFactor": 0.8646133576831676, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0242459966597897, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8982458621635707, "adjustedSOG": 0.8982458621635707, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13559322033898305, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 59, "goalExpected": 0.0921278745461443, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0921278745461443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08801147802993552, "goalProbability": 0.08801147802993552, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857420563390237, "modelSOG": 0.8982458621635707, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 62, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 154.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13723393922594582, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.8083259567609, "btb": { "id": "8478233", "name": "Andrew Mangiapane", "score": 49.8083259567609, "components": { "Goal model": 44.31818181818182, "SOG model": 19.886363636363637, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.578947368421055, "Shot quality": 65.9090909090909, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 61.97870452528838, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1583526824996295, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Andrew Mangiapane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 81 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -4.482981525386322, "index": 95.51701847461368, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.294117647058824, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 41.294117647058826, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.529411764705884, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.294117647058824, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.176470588235295, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.482981525386322, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478233", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9377997172046343, "trialBefore6040": 0.9377997172046343, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9377997172046343, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 0.8968410459215801, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 320.0, "expectedMinutes": 5.333333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4958662832494608, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8734205229607901, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8734205229607901, "baseline": 0.9354838709677419, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 142, "beforeSOG": 0.8982458621635707, "adjustedSOG": 0.8982458621635707 } }, { "id": "8478398", "name": "Kyle Connor", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 4.4, "priorSOG": 3.341463414634146, "currentTOI": 21.028333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 15.718333333333334, "ppShare": 0.7231726283048211, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 44, "currentPPTOI": 3.1, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.67, "currentIXG": 0.567, "priorTOI": 21.50630081300813, "priorPPTOI": 3.0134146341463413, "deploymentChange": -0.477967479674799, "ppTOIChange": 0.08658536585365884, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 24.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 21.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 2, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1486819638345547, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 585.0, "goalExpected": 0.5141497296395362, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5141497296395362, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.40199115229015, "goalProbability": 0.40199115229015, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 3.4580504344942224, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.45159580108154, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.718333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7231726283048211, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8997083981337477, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9993791211877663, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1860, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.735447207624029, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.683933630109268, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.166260162601628, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6603008898429635, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9689520624303234, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9541929480151926, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9245672249357912, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.45159580108154, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 24.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 21.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 2, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 20.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1492063492063492, "goalHistoryGoals": 47, "goalHistoryShots": 315, "goalExpected": 0.45030656603168423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.45030656603168423, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3625672935504034, "goalProbability": 0.3625672935504034, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284714522666998, "modelSOG": 3.4580504344942224, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 89.0, "historyShots": 585.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15213675213675212, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1486819638345547, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.882421313501764, "adjustedSOG": 3.718333800531422, "reductionPct": 4.226422114459871, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.610078512933185, "afterPlayerForm": 2.5219074150798755, "afterRecentDefense": 2.495764036996638, "afterRecentZones": 2.610078512933185, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.495764036996638, "adjusted": 2.4114545980144726, "playerFactor": 0.9662189863575317, "defenseFactor": 0.956202667708995, "oldChartFactor": 0.9541929480151926, "newChartFactor": 0.9541929480151926, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7978511907279725, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7934609801617474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.0329813998136572, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0178936509887044, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9723279699558283, "afterRecentZones": 1.0329813998136572, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9723279699558285, "adjusted": 0.958126126448466, "playerFactor": 0.9853939782190904, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9017453135100194, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.718333800531422, "adjustedSOG": 3.718333800531422, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 72.66174825773551, "btb": { "id": "8478398", "name": "Kyle Connor", "score": 72.66174825773551, "components": { "Goal model": 97.72727272727273, "SOG model": 98.86363636363636, "Unit attack": 87.17948717948718, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 97.72727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.65483584738243, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1694129343445034, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 4 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 42, "priorAttempts": 281, "fitPct": -1.5269017328269143, "index": 98.47309826717309, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.122013218098628, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.10930350788002, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.676156583629894, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.117437722419933, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.690391459074732, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.2846975088967972, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": 9.180184794624665, "index": 109.18018479462467, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.806451612903226, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.325513196480939, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.97947214076246, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 54.66275659824047, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6451612903225806, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.5269017328269143, "zonePPFit": 9.180184794624665, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478398", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 4.448830117977446, "trialBefore6040": 4.448830117977446, "trialBeforeShotChart": 4.448830117977446, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.531034489737388, "attemptProjection": 3.9550853357562956, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 47.0, "sog": 30.0, "seconds": 9431.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.718333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 4.699999999999999, "onNet": 0.5647942961749687, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1860.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.8997083981337477, "projectedAttempts": 1.761158631415241, "onNet": 0.5663841807909604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.610078512933185, "ppAdjusted": 1.0329813998136572, "other": 0.6 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.243059912746842, "baseline": 3.341463414634146, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 3, "beforeSOG": 3.718333800531422, "adjustedSOG": 3.4580504344942224 } }, { "id": "8478413", "name": "Jordan Greenway", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 0.8, "currentTOI": 13.565000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 11.751666666666667, "ppShare": 0.00888030888030888, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 40, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 0.03833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.203, "currentIXG": 0.2203, "priorTOI": 12.445, "priorPPTOI": 0.017916666666666668, "deploymentChange": 1.120000000000001, "ppTOIChange": 0.02041666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020716", "date": "20260112", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 8.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020140", "date": "20241028", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020025", "date": "20241012", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09708959189362067, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.10632133294387819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10981767147468492, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10086432026402865, "goalProbability": 0.10400251369533454, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3138193431305891, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.095084765217394, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.658488157708127, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.751666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00888030888030888, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04635924885924886, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9786624513869284, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 23, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.586535016124537, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.465416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0037381790424494297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8650109815847271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8222990929031896, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.658488157708127, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020716", "date": "20260112", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 8.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020140", "date": "20241028", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020025", "date": "20241012", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Jordan Greenway" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1237621070298744, "adjustedSOG": 1.095084765217394, "reductionPct": 2.551905036936608, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2396035117164574, "afterPlayerForm": 1.19180794202899, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2396035117164577, "afterRecentZones": 1.2396035117164574, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2396035117164574, "adjusted": 1.19180794202899, "playerFactor": 0.9614428571428572, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8222990929031896, "newChartFactor": 0.8222990929031896, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7231794871794872, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0242459966597897, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.095084765217394, "adjustedSOG": 1.095084765217394, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 46, "goalExpected": 0.03826610832235123, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03826610832235123, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037543210950826786, "goalProbability": 0.037543210950826786, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864484908426202, "modelSOG": 1.095084765217394, "historyGames": 84, "seasonGames": { "2024": 34, "2025": 40, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05952380952380952, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09708959189362067, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 49.738695181629964, "btb": { "id": "8478413", "name": "Jordan Greenway", "score": 49.738695181629964, "components": { "Goal model": 39.20454545454545, "SOG model": 33.52272727272727, "Unit attack": 20.512820512820515, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.43181818181819, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 54.371715241280455, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0198756448674113, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Jordan Greenway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 83 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -5.923363569893681, "index": 94.07663643010632, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.97142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.771428571428569, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.31428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.17142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.923363569893681, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478413", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4580651593180596, "trialBefore6040": 1.4580651593180596, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4580651593180596, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.375, "attemptProjection": 1.3042070234329153, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7051.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.751666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5326479323737721, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 23.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04635924885924886, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2396035117164574, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3396035117164575, "baseline": 0.8, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 40, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 118, "beforeSOG": 1.095084765217394, "adjustedSOG": 1.095084765217394 } }, { "id": "8478420", "name": "Mikko Rantanen", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 2.171875, "currentTOI": 20.808333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 15.493333333333334, "ppShare": 0.9224326292789512, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 22, "currentPPTOI": 4.221666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.2990000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.3299, "priorTOI": 20.17578125, "priorPPTOI": 3.73046875, "deploymentChange": 0.6325520833333336, "ppTOIChange": 0.4911979166666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020785", "date": "20250125", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1519018864869032, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 373.0, "goalExpected": 0.31256663355954994, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31256663355954994, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26843311958277527, "goalProbability": 0.26843311958277527, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.057687635014981, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.034423407917384, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.52743782076589, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.493333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.9224326292789512, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.809717467831998, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0308132832453814, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2533, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.283546939263102, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.549738219895287, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.259635416666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7723017794927035, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080638621388748, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9317565757177323, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8999467386856286, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0068921414535108, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.034423407917384, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.52743782076589, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020785", "date": "20250125", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16875, "goalHistoryGoals": 27, "goalHistoryShots": 160, "goalExpected": 0.39985905993236864, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.39985905993236864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3295854723537719, "goalProbability": 0.3295854723537719, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849592308305224, "modelSOG": 2.057687635014981, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 64, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 59.0, "historyShots": 373.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1581769436997319, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1519018864869032, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.221836758445256, "adjustedSOG": 2.212567349478474, "reductionPct": 0.4171957697408968, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.251435527423971, "afterPlayerForm": 1.251435527423971, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2513926353603853, "afterRecentZones": 1.251435527423971, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2513926353603853, "adjusted": 1.2513926353603853, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9999657257104775, "oldChartFactor": 0.9317565757177323, "newChartFactor": 0.9317565757177323, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0070666666666668, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9998400746318384, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.703709069984789, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6938084645062121, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6981249891767853, "afterRecentZones": 0.703709069984789, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6981249891767853, "adjusted": 0.6883029471037387, "playerFactor": 0.9859308258186996, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.8999467386856286, "newChartFactor": 0.8952854512091555, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.116666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9181338028169015, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.212567349478474, "adjustedSOG": 2.212567349478474, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 65.86218129696391, "btb": { "id": "8478420", "name": "Mikko Rantanen", "score": 65.86218129696391, "components": { "Goal model": 89.77272727272727, "SOG model": 81.81818181818181, "Unit attack": 53.84615384615385, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 86.36363636363636, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.6383182035356, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.407300502111726, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 24, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 25 }, "reportedPPUnits": [ "PP1", "PP2" ], "ppAssignmentNote": "Reported on both units; PP1 retained as primary. No extra minutes inferred.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -2.2747808094089237, "index": 97.72521919059108, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.274809160305344, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.770992366412212, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.87786259541985, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.078880407124682, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.748091603053435, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.249363867684479, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": -3.335108710479048, "index": 96.66489128952095, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.213114754098362, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.245901639344262, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.524590163934427, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.967213114754098, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 46.39344262295082, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.2747808094089237, "zonePPFit": -3.335108710479048, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478420", "goals": 1, "sog": 24, "shootingPct": 0.041666666666666664, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 32, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020582", "date": "20240102" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2023020090", "date": "20231024" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "attempts": 13, "gameId": "2022020506", "date": "20221219" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020857", "date": "20220301" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.2191694609884975, "trialBefore6040": 2.2191694609884975, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.2191694609884975, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.189999477990074, "attemptProjection": 2.320289716827446, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9296.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.493333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5059812657071053, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2533.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.809717467831998, "projectedAttempts": 1.822869628550619, "onNet": 0.4757619866790172, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.251435527423971, "ppAdjusted": 0.703709069984789, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2551445974087603, "baseline": 2.171875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 28, "beforeSOG": 2.212567349478474, "adjustedSOG": 2.057687635014981 } }, { "id": "8478444", "name": "Brock Boeser", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 2.2133333333333334, "currentTOI": 18.383333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.404166666666667, "ppShare": 0.6991659476560254, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 3.3763888888888887, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8010000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.15008333333333335, "priorTOI": 19.053333333333335, "priorPPTOI": 3.0433333333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.6700000000000017, "ppTOIChange": 0.3330555555555552, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 19.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 21.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3333333333333335, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14519506419045244, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.23317426834064692, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23831371407003787, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20798446173654433, "goalProbability": 0.21204454039844095, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.40600786618966156, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6059379817126023, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.730183400683867, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.9234882764294525, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.404166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6991659476560254, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.698296543955517, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 0.9518782659777293, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2431, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8294454331201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.46330777656079, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.860666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8065805492409959, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9412137227206923, "Chart_PP_Factor": 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21.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "goalHistoryGoals": 24, 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Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1793085329806157, "trialBefore6040": 1.1793085329806157, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1793085329806157, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1935338149261876, "attemptProjection": 1.3395003998417232, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 9651.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.404166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0833333333333335, "onNet": 0.4659812657071054, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2431.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.698296543955517, "projectedAttempts": 0.730227207362669, "onNet": 0.5069015710485368, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.801919216038897, "ppAdjusted": 0.381264558011725, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2665171073839554, "baseline": 2.2133333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 58, "beforeSOG": 1.6059379817126023, "adjustedSOG": 1.6059379817126023 } }, { "id": "8478449", "name": "Roope Hintz", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": 2.3773584905660377, "currentTOI": 16.883333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.698333333333334, "ppShare": 0.6649672250546249, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 21, "currentPPTOI": 3.0433333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.4240000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.34240000000000004, "priorTOI": 17.341509433962266, "priorPPTOI": 2.914779874213836, "deploymentChange": -0.45817610062893266, "ppTOIChange": 0.12855345911949723, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14951307463185998, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.31501384151907075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31501384151907075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27022122704765505, "goalProbability": 0.27022122704765505, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.1069317335270954, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.670035437721486, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.829134720700985, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.698333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6649672250546249, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4672499393056566, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9845569359260292, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1826, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.742884942836293, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.98209084043586, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.927672955974842, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6034334649458903, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9082642180094787, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9464474853507547, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9481397917040338, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8596243851691407, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8613594957005013, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.670035437721486, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.829134720700985, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1267605633802817, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 142, "goalExpected": 0.31120958217728606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31120958217728606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2674396718091095, "goalProbability": 0.2674396718091095, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851821375167008, "modelSOG": 2.1069317335270954, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 53, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 307.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1563517915309446, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14951307463185998, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.164536796485288, "adjustedSOG": 2.1069317335270954, "reductionPct": 2.6613113277505818, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0891576699049907, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0519560614610481, "afterRecentDefense": 1.056938835401127, "afterRecentZones": 1.0891576699049907, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.056938835401127, "adjusted": 1.0208377034986915, "playerFactor": 0.9658436886854153, "defenseFactor": 0.9538803877813323, "oldChartFactor": 0.9464474853507547, "newChartFactor": 0.9464474853507547, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7848166460651009, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7848038262416315, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6334979971931312, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6140144478445976, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6250327208552376, "afterRecentZones": 0.6334979971931312, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6250327208552378, "adjusted": 0.6058095253357756, "playerFactor": 0.969244497323022, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.9481397917040338, "newChartFactor": 0.9481397917040338, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.016666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7793427230046949, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1069317335270954, "adjustedSOG": 2.1069317335270954, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 63.24430098886621, "btb": { "id": "8478449", "name": "Roope Hintz", "score": 63.24430098886621, "components": { "Goal model": 90.3409090909091, "SOG model": 82.95454545454545, "Unit attack": 28.205128205128204, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 88.63636363636364, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.628284758719545, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0749467705564966, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 30 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 110, "fitPct": -1.785083821641507, "index": 98.2149161783585, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.909090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -1.7286736098655382, "index": 98.27132639013446, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.7692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.80769230769231, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.84615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.038461538461538, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.785083821641507, "zonePPFit": -1.7286736098655382, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478449", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.039077863927145, "trialBefore6040": 2.039077863927145, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.039077863927145, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9203540361940143, "attemptProjection": 2.124957298002229, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7619.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.698333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.5062511113086772, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1826.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4672499393056566, "projectedAttempts": 1.3671522214129643, "onNet": 0.5205969960073517, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0891576699049907, "ppAdjusted": 0.6334979971931312, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0226556670981215, "baseline": 2.3773584905660377, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 35, "beforeSOG": 2.1069317335270954, "adjustedSOG": 2.1069317335270954 } }, { "id": "8478454", "name": "Noah Juulsen", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 10.625, "currentFiveTOI": 10.4625, "ppShare": 0.005204163330664532, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0.027083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.166, "currentIXG": 0.02075, "priorTOI": 13.81602564102564, "priorPPTOI": 0.005769230769230769, "deploymentChange": -3.1910256410256395, "ppTOIChange": 0.021314102564102565, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020223", "date": "20251106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020170", "date": "20251030", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020810", "date": "20250129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020619", "date": "20250103", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020285", "date": "20241117", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04346537468702157, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 56.0, "goalExpected": 0.020810042844955585, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.020810042844955585, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020595008113814716, "goalProbability": 0.020595008113814716, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.47877288519427635, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.867383512544803, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.4625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005204163330664532, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.026051568527549314, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2498, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.262550082488805, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.239423076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001354900111916952, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1890197321407665, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.867383512544803, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020223", "date": "20251106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020170", "date": "20251030", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020810", "date": "20250129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020619", "date": "20250103", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020285", "date": "20241117", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.49093948871430204, "adjustedSOG": 0.48854376040232284, "reductionPct": 0.48798851325919657, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.48489914785717003, "afterPlayerForm": 0.48489914785717003, "afterRecentDefense": 0.48489914785717003, "afterRecentZones": 0.48090626733720476, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.48090626733720476, "adjusted": 0.48090626733720476, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1890197321407665, "newChartFactor": 1.1725062930926997, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2926640926640927, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.48854376040232284, "adjustedSOG": 0.47877288519427635, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03333333333333333, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 30, "goalExpected": 0.01403617255595521, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01403617255595521, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.013938124760611478, "goalProbability": 0.013938124760611478, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780598451175365, "modelSOG": 0.47877288519427635, "historyGames": 95, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 52, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 56.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017857142857142856, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04346537468702157, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": 6.300657738025549, "index": 106.30065773802555, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.63636363636364, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.300657738025549, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478454", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5231807420712598, "trialBefore6040": 0.5231807420712598, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5231807420712598, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 0.39479829571434016, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5022.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.4625, "projectedAttempts": 0.875, "onNet": 0.42073480803457924, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.026051568527549314, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.48489914785717003, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.48489914785717003, "baseline": 0.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.47877288519427635, "adjustedSOG": 0.47877288519427635 } }, { "id": "8478462", "name": "Nicolas Roy", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.027027027027027, "currentTOI": 11.68611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.455555555555556, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 10, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.69, "currentIXG": 0.2816666666666667, "priorTOI": 14.45945945945946, "priorPPTOI": 0.8202702702702703, "deploymentChange": -2.7733483483483496, "ppTOIChange": -0.8202702702702703, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020049", "date": "20251014", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021274", "date": "20250412", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021163", "date": "20250329", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020701", "date": "20250114", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12921229050262475, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 193.0, "goalExpected": 0.1945870587285197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1945870587285197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1768254893893222, "goalProbability": 0.1768254893893222, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5059485283605196, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1891, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7032803748999887, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.780889621087315, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.822972972972973, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14974142030593643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.08853672985782, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0921386164783038, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020049", "date": "20251014", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021274", "date": "20250412", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021163", "date": "20250329", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020701", "date": "20250114", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5371506454983557, "adjustedSOG": 1.5366821717964487, "reductionPct": 0.030476759273978526, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.710566391145908, "afterPlayerForm": 1.70978560164273, "afterRecentDefense": 1.710566391145908, "afterRecentZones": 1.710566391145908, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.710566391145908, "adjusted": 1.70978560164273, "playerFactor": 0.9995435491383325, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0921386164783038, "newChartFactor": 1.0921386164783038, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9967560410460112, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1912634322115694, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5366821717964487, "adjustedSOG": 1.5059485283605196, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11627906976744186, "goalHistoryGoals": 10, "goalHistoryShots": 86, "goalExpected": 0.09425805068095061, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09425805068095061, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08995210654055909, "goalProbability": 0.08995210654055909, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859201117269056, "modelSOG": 1.5059485283605196, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 74, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 193.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12953367875647667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12921229050262475, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": 3.0712872159434568, "index": 103.07128721594346, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.608695652173914, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.913043478260875, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.95652173913044, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.782608695652172, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.0712872159434568, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478462", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024021274", "date": "20250412" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021163", "date": "20250329" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020701", "date": "20250114" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020010", "date": "20241009" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. 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Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7488612067789322, "trialBefore6040": 1.7488612067789322, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7488612067789322, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8916666666666664, "attemptProjection": 1.862799448958483, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3764.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.455555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 3.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.49945771357742186, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.710566391145908, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8772330578125747, "baseline": 1.027027027027027, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.5059485283605196, "adjustedSOG": 1.5059485283605196 } }, { "id": "8478465", "name": "Guillaume Brisebois", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.733333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. 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"currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3370488363765376, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.651474530831099, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 120, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0186339658834007, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9348760312039355, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, 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"goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057760080552885715, "modelSOG": 1.3370488363765376, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2024": 3, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05553853899315934, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3422406324166294, "adjustedSOG": 1.3370488363765376, "reductionPct": 0.3868006909271027, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3422406324166294, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3422406324166294, "afterRecentDefense": 1.341747625407196, "afterRecentZones": 1.3375401168795218, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3370488363765376, "adjusted": 1.3370488363765376, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9996326984912194, "oldChartFactor": 0.9348760312039355, "newChartFactor": 0.9302615026347542, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3370488363765376, "adjustedSOG": 1.3370488363765376, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 42.062192118226605, "btb": { "id": "8478465", "name": "Guillaume Brisebois", "score": 42.062192118226605, "components": { "Goal model": 26.704545454545453, "SOG model": 50.0, "Unit attack": 27.586206896551722, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 65.3409090909091, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0604700605899913, "unitPlayers": [ "Guillaume Brisebois", "Luke Schenn" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 131 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -2.1707989598688187, "index": 97.82920104013118, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 50, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1707989598688187, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478465", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.9170285769238333, "trialBefore6040": 1.9170285769238333, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.9170285769238333, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9045929585491974, "attemptProjection": 0.7798883062840614, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 746.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4227285395763657, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3422406324166294, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3422406324166294, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 89, "beforeSOG": 1.3370488363765376, "adjustedSOG": 1.3370488363765376 } }, { "id": "8478476", "name": "Kyle Capobianco", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "currentTOI": 9.655555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 9.5, "ppShare": 0.006191950464396285, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 33, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.022, "currentIXG": 0.007333333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.133333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.3883838383838384, "deploymentChange": -2.477777777777778, "ppTOIChange": -0.3661616161616162, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.1 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06532279830413039, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.026689293004617254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026689293004617254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.026336281340439634, "goalProbability": 0.026336281340439634, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.4085754697824952, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1052631578947367, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.5, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006191950464396285, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.032285861713106295, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 646, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8696201311808563, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1052631578947367, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 18, "goalExpected": 0.047523285606973005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.047523285606973005, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.046411732007525304, "goalProbability": 0.046411732007525304, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773412998191516, "modelSOG": 0.4085754697824952, "historyGames": 37, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 33, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 19.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06532279830413039, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4152771364358344, "adjustedSOG": 0.4085754697824952, "reductionPct": 1.6137817532785648, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3284921970900271, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3284921970900271, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3173227526677951, "afterRecentZones": 0.3284921970900271, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3173227526677951, "adjusted": 0.3173227526677951, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.8696201311808563, "newChartFactor": 0.8593177717740327, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 28.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4085754697824952, "adjustedSOG": 0.4085754697824952, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 37.05899282501606, "btb": { "id": "8478476", "name": "Kyle Capobianco", "score": 37.05899282501606, "components": { "Goal model": 1.7045454545454546, "SOG model": 0.5681818181818182, "Unit attack": 62.06896551724138, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.818181818181817, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.67306606437041, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.641858091686868, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Capobianco", "Tyler Myers" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 156 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -4.345995627304788, "index": 95.65400437269521, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.2857142857142865, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.345995627304788, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478476", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.3135073858499316, "trialBefore6040": 0.3135073858499316, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.3135073858499316, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.3736510608467209, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1710.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.5, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.39588460486737764, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.032285861713106295, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3284921970900271, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3284921970900271, "baseline": 0.5454545454545454, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 33, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 176, "beforeSOG": 0.4085754697824952, "adjustedSOG": 0.4085754697824952 } }, { "id": "8478493", "name": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.1666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.7714285714285714, "currentTOI": 20.273611111111112, "currentFiveTOI": 14.602777777777776, "ppShare": 0.6633858267716536, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 38, "currentPPTOI": 2.8083333333333336, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 7.978000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.6648333333333334, "priorTOI": 19.079047619047618, "priorPPTOI": 3.2883333333333336, "deploymentChange": 1.1945634920634944, "ppTOIChange": -0.48, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 21.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10353779834779, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 372.0, "goalExpected": 0.3085568607963981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3085568607963981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2654938135949551, "goalProbability": 0.2654938135949551, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.9801373577592996, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.875214000380445, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.023738872403563, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.602777777777776, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6633858267716536, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0096525043744533, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9795287364370838, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2022, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.660679506600303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.251104192310477, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.202857142857143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6232366423976269, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.023319689788884, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.875214000380445, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.023738872403563, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 21.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.2970795495273117, "adjustedSOG": 3.269845685494074, "reductionPct": 0.825999604320804, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1844969204361604, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1844969204361604, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1844969204361604, "afterRecentZones": 2.1844969204361604, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.1844969204361604, "adjusted": 2.1844969204361604, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 23.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1907134767836918, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1454411634625494, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9630166144903112, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9318304445279665, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9483376499151965, "afterRecentZones": 0.9630166144903112, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9483376499151963, "adjusted": 0.9176268411015822, "playerFactor": 0.9676161662290216, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7891391614629795, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.269845685494074, "adjustedSOG": 3.2044487717841927, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10248520302426647, "goalHistoryGoals": 35, "goalHistoryShots": 367, "goalExpected": 0.3507819494074062, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3507819494074062, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29586272533263075, "goalProbability": 0.29586272533263075, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869840820156878, "modelSOG": 2.9801373577592996, "historyGames": 128, "seasonGames": { "2024": 46, "2025": 70, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 372.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0967741935483871, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10353779834779, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.39421490980415, "btb": { "id": "8478493", "name": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "score": 69.39421490980415, "components": { "Goal model": 89.20454545454545, "SOG model": 96.02272727272727, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 67.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 98.86363636363636, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 34.36853002070393, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.3438102731201855, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 9 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 35, "priorAttempts": 173, "fitPct": 11.704722320410042, "index": 111.70472232041004, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.88934764657308, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.73327828241123, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.62097440132123, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.596201486374898, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.07927332782824, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0809248554913293, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 21.00981946325281, "index": 121.00981946325281, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.58823529411765, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.704722320410042, "zonePPFit": 21.00981946325281, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478493", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.5560109206392214, "trialBefore6040": 3.5560109206392214, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.5560109206392214, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.628496145013123, "attemptProjection": 3.6665309248398206, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 46.0, "sog": 23.0, "seconds": 10514.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.602777777777776, "projectedAttempts": 3.8333333333333326, "onNet": 0.5048185649671053, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2022.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0096525043744533, "projectedAttempts": 1.6968367235345583, "onNet": 0.5112610688761711, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1844969204361604, "ppAdjusted": 0.9630166144903112, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.647513534926472, "baseline": 2.7714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 8, "beforeSOG": 3.2044487717841927, "adjustedSOG": 2.9801373577592996 } }, { "id": "8478498", "name": "Jake DeBrusk", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 2.7037037037037037, "currentTOI": 16.16166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.401666666666667, "ppShare": 0.6858658582796514, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 23, "currentPPTOI": 3.0166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.402, "currentIXG": 0.3402, "priorTOI": 16.86440329218107, "priorPPTOI": 2.8518518518518516, "deploymentChange": -0.702736625514401, "ppTOIChange": 0.16481481481481497, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13032860142162273, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 413.0, "goalExpected": 0.2810548660511835, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28724965864699886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24501308880668754, "goalProbability": 0.24967561951816872, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.46625307114811776, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.156509492048872, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.740895040989114, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.933701657458563, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.401666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6858658582796514, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6279446128584056, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 0.9728135835273635, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1810, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2639, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.298805314924348, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.181818181818183, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.280041152263374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7558318399848689, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8627242322894497, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9323688343960457, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.995846030812298, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9929402162400119, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.740895040989114, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.933701657458563, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Marco Rossi", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10833333333333334, "goalHistoryGoals": 26, "goalHistoryShots": 240, "goalExpected": 0.30568536470500557, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30568536470500557, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2633816508694018, "goalProbability": 0.2633816508694018, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858572529292464, "modelSOG": 2.156509492048872, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 413.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13075060532687652, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13032860142162273, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.367657211463837, "adjustedSOG": 2.3188274108052385, "reductionPct": 2.0623678301982307, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3235341049819938, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3046009207309244, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3085930237696153, "afterRecentZones": 1.3235341049819938, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3085930237696153, "adjusted": 1.2898735720113008, "playerFactor": 0.9856949781801603, "defenseFactor": 0.9767827670721562, "oldChartFactor": 0.9323688343960457, "newChartFactor": 0.9287752305199057, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9030738337967255, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8899434016563809, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7200921116552655, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6723696435282939, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7200921116552655, "afterRecentZones": 0.7200921116552655, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7200921116552655, "adjusted": 0.6723696435282939, "playerFactor": 0.9337272727272727, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.995846030812298, "newChartFactor": 0.995846030812298, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.333333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5983471074380166, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.3188274108052385, "adjustedSOG": 2.3188274108052385, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 58.17887694383, "btb": { "id": "8478498", "name": "Jake DeBrusk", "score": 58.17887694383, "components": { "Goal model": 85.79545454545455, "SOG model": 86.93181818181819, "Unit attack": 25.641025641025642, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.73684210526316, "Shot quality": 88.06818181818181, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 60.59782608695652, "Goalie H2H": 43.10344827586207 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.052331477726153, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Marco Rossi", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 49 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": -2.254372186798477, "index": 97.74562781320152, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.860597439544808, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.072546230440969, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.33997155049787, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.901849217638695, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.149359886201992, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6756756756756763, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": -0.1384656395900663, "index": 99.86153436040993, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.9298245614035086, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.87719298245614, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 64.91228070175438, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.192982456140351, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.087719298245614, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.254372186798477, "zonePPFit": -0.1384656395900663, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478498", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.270497751965973, "trialBefore6040": 2.270497751965973, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.270497751965973, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.176485944211839, "attemptProjection": 2.11076648906268, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7441.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.401666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.6, "onNet": 0.5366453516969996, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1810.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6279446128584056, "projectedAttempts": 1.3228969306555514, "onNet": 0.5614522552560897, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3235341049819938, "ppAdjusted": 0.7200921116552655, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1436262166372595, "baseline": 2.7037037037037037, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 24, "beforeSOG": 2.3188274108052385, "adjustedSOG": 2.156509492048872 } }, { "id": "8478508", "name": "Yakov Trenin", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.1951219512195121, "currentTOI": 13.072222222222223, "currentFiveTOI": 11.098611111111111, "ppShare": 0.0022965879265091863, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 0.009722222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.231, "currentIXG": 0.18591666666666665, "priorTOI": 13.28170731707317, "priorPPTOI": 0.08800813008130082, "deploymentChange": -0.20948509485094746, "ppTOIChange": -0.0782859078590786, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 11.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 6.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10.9 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08710526313439801, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 197.0, "goalExpected": 0.10626964783164487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10626964783164487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1008178471345344, "goalProbability": 0.1008178471345344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.2200140841969263, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.856588662245025, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.098611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0022965879265091863, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01041917286380869, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0266484982408008, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.757797016793575, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.628175519630485, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.691463414634146, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016680149466466346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.856588662245025, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 11.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 6.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.291397878738877, "adjustedSOG": 1.24491233081319, "reductionPct": 3.5996301907420425, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2722484970851204, "afterPlayerForm": 1.194772583875642, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2722484970851204, "afterRecentZones": 1.2722484970851204, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2722484970851204, "adjusted": 1.194772583875642, "playerFactor": 0.9391031599667947, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5780227956144792, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.24491233081319, "adjustedSOG": 1.2200140841969263, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08826024930748766, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 193, "goalExpected": 0.09650751850507257, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09650751850507257, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09199692925160732, "goalProbability": 0.09199692925160732, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1287026315091621, "modelSOG": 1.2200140841969263, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 197.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06598984771573604, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08710526313439801, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.126223414266896, "btb": { "id": "8478508", "name": "Yakov Trenin", "score": 50.126223414266896, "components": { "Goal model": 38.06818181818182, "SOG model": 42.61363636363637, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 64.77272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.25310559006211, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.677017264173463, "unitPlayers": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 77 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": 12.274069532031703, "index": 112.2740695320317, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.783783783783782, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.027027027027025, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.148648648648646, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.175675675675677, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.013513513513514, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.851351351351351, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.274069532031703, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478508", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.357365773902951, "trialBefore6040": 1.357365773902951, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.357365773902951, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3291666666666664, "attemptProjection": 1.3819969941702408, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7991.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.098611111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.416666666666667, "onNet": 0.48036196111434054, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01041917286380869, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2722484970851204, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3555818304184535, "baseline": 1.1951219512195121, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 102, "beforeSOG": 1.2200140841969263, "adjustedSOG": 1.2200140841969263 } }, { "id": "8478851", "name": "Alexandre Carrier", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 0.7671232876712328, "currentTOI": 19.858333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 15.596666666666668, "ppShare": 0.011045364891518738, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.04666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6350000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.06350000000000001, "priorTOI": 19.083333333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.0271689497716895, "deploymentChange": 0.7750000000000021, "ppTOIChange": 0.01949771689497717, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06734932289947797, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.06543864491232797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06543864491232797, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06334348636081998, "goalProbability": 0.06334348636081998, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9716303311615802, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.46227826458645, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.596666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011045364891518738, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.047034845496383954, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 28, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7769948524721486, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.390639269406392, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005718555417185555, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1227468985950406, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.46227826458645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020329", "date": "20241123", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0166675674695471, "adjustedSOG": 0.9914595215934492, "reductionPct": 2.4794777253335565, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9830304206684233, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9433148100888964, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9830304206684233, "afterRecentZones": 0.9806358790967634, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9806358790967634, "adjusted": 0.9410170108749266, "playerFactor": 0.9595987980183546, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1227468985950406, "newChartFactor": 1.1175517988401846, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 86.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7720060497731336, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.36666666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9914595215934492, "adjustedSOG": 0.9716303311615802, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11940298507462686, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 67, "goalExpected": 0.1066059856758538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1066059856758538, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10112022526792507, "goalProbability": 0.10112022526792507, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769981401970013, "modelSOG": 0.9716303311615802, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0738255033557047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06734932289947797, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.32480171092561, "btb": { "id": "8478851", "name": "Alexandre Carrier", "score": 41.32480171092561, "components": { "Goal model": 21.59090909090909, "SOG model": 25.568181818181817, "Unit attack": 72.41379310344827, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.318181818181817, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.70008873114463, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.729840906580548, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 137 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": 4.091563286501355, "index": 104.09156328650135, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.9523809523809526, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.111111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.34920634920635, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.091563286501355, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478851", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020761", "date": "20240127" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1535524207231453, "trialBefore6040": 1.1535524207231453, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1535524207231453, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2349999999999999, "attemptProjection": 1.1310608413368466, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9358.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.596666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 2.1, "onNet": 0.4081955501122678, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 28.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.047034845496383954, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9830304206684233, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1830304206684232, "baseline": 0.7671232876712328, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 132, "beforeSOG": 0.9716303311615802, "adjustedSOG": 0.9716303311615802 } }, { "id": "8478859", "name": "Niko Mikkola", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 19.798484848484847, "currentFiveTOI": 16.277272727272727, "ppShare": 0.012157428394807336, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 0.08939393939393939, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.586, "currentIXG": 0.05327272727272727, "priorTOI": 20.35563725490196, "priorPPTOI": 0.11544117647058823, "deploymentChange": -0.5571524064171136, "ppTOIChange": -0.02604723707664884, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052772280264837, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 199.0, "goalExpected": 0.06829405935186213, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06829405935186213, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06601421406290289, "goalProbability": 0.06601421406290289, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.294127504233838, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.021223122032952, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.277272727272727, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012157428394807336, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07190934692068011, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 59, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.014390735431864, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.929936305732483, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.270098039215686, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02258110139202182, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1441584044192061, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.021223122032952, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04938271604938271, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 81, "goalExpected": 0.05057994416294075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05057994416294075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04932207551657732, "goalProbability": 0.04932207551657732, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778911799186263, "modelSOG": 1.294127504233838, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 199.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05025125628140704, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052772280264837, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3284373883829528, "adjustedSOG": 1.3205382696263654, "reductionPct": 0.5946173169819158, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2746683745776486, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2746683745776486, "afterRecentDefense": 1.261503176650003, "afterRecentZones": 1.2746683745776486, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.261503176650003, "adjusted": 1.261503176650003, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.1441584044192061, "newChartFactor": 1.1441584044192061, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.93333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.018178027143832, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.38333333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3205382696263654, "adjustedSOG": 1.294127504233838, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 38.42223368835063, "btb": { "id": "8478859", "name": "Niko Mikkola", "score": 38.42223368835063, "components": { "Goal model": 22.727272727272727, "SOG model": 47.72727272727273, "Unit attack": 41.37931034482759, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 12.5, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.683229813664596, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.15421228022812, "unitPlayers": [ "Niko Mikkola", "Seth Jones" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 149 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 115, "fitPct": 4.805280147306874, "index": 104.80528014730687, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 49.47826086956522, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.1936758893280635, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.130434782608696, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.383399209486164, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.118577075098814, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.805280147306874, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478859", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020394", "date": "20211207" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4251704773247242, "trialBefore6040": 1.4251704773247242, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4251704773247242, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5272727272727271, "attemptProjection": 1.5675185673371155, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10743.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.277272727272727, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.3853239043129038, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 59.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07190934692068011, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2746683745776486, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5473956473049213, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 93, "beforeSOG": 1.294127504233838, "adjustedSOG": 1.294127504233838 } }, { "id": "8478864", "name": "Kirill Kaprizov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.5, "priorSOG": 3.448717948717949, "currentTOI": 21.47361111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 16.76111111111111, "ppShare": 0.7214566929133859, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 42, "currentPPTOI": 3.0541666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 9.44, "currentIXG": 0.7866666666666666, "priorTOI": 22.14679487179487, "priorPPTOI": 3.7324786324786325, "deploymentChange": -0.6731837606837594, "ppTOIChange": -0.6783119658119658, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 12, "toi": 26.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1705731366001378, "goalHistoryGoals": 82.0, "goalHistoryShots": 456.0, "goalExpected": 0.5833397005325095, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5833397005325095, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.44196840733956166, "goalProbability": 0.44196840733956166, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 3.4198802470285248, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.4577394763009615, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.37107776261937, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.76111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7214566929133859, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2731087325021875, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5833333333333334, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0299758500211624, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2199, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.137634914930792, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.632470803755439, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.24337606837607, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7074153423396458, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.4577394763009615, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.37107776261937, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 8, "toi": 19.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 21.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 12, "toi": 26.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.7730317441915577, "adjustedSOG": 3.752337334900729, "reductionPct": 0.5484822470069761, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.392008283920502, "afterPlayerForm": 2.392008283920502, "afterRecentDefense": 2.392008283920502, "afterRecentZones": 2.392008283920502, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.392008283920502, "adjusted": 2.392008283920502, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 27.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 81.98333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2498168441967419, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.0138993239201293, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9945685426314519, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9984447699336092, "afterRecentZones": 1.0138993239201293, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9984447699336092, "adjusted": 0.9794086417687473, "playerFactor": 0.9809342201610934, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.133333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.88080796520943, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.752337334900729, "adjustedSOG": 3.6772905882027147, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17122037941529986, "goalHistoryGoals": 81, "goalHistoryShots": 448, "goalExpected": 0.6172412027189556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6172412027189556, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.46056943373223735, "goalProbability": 0.46056943373223735, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12838663949676618, "modelSOG": 3.4198802470285248, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 41, "2025": 78, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 82.0, "historyShots": 456.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17982456140350878, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1705731366001378, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 73.67498848405599, "btb": { "id": "8478864", "name": "Kirill Kaprizov", "score": 73.67498848405599, "components": { "Goal model": 100.0, "SOG model": 98.29545454545455, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 67.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 100.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.997929606625256, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 4.3438102731201855, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 2 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 45, "priorAttempts": 245, "fitPct": 12.129409684980047, "index": 112.12940968498005, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.38095238095238, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.74829931972789, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.891156462585032, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.07482993197279, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": 11.407302814434047, "index": 111.40730281443405, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.564102564102562, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.743589743589745, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.51282051282051, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.897435897435896, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.129409684980047, "zonePPFit": 11.407302814434047, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478864", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 4.099155266557509, "trialBefore6040": 4.099155266557509, "trialBeforeShotChart": 4.099155266557509, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.0061994203849505, "attemptProjection": 3.9722824619629775, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 53.0, "sog": 25.0, "seconds": 12068.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.76111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 4.416666666666666, "onNet": 0.48334996824244625, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 2199.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2731087325021875, "projectedAttempts": 1.5182223315835524, "onNet": 0.5708744413525592, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.392008283920502, "ppAdjusted": 1.0138993239201293, "other": 0.5833333333333334 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.989240941173964, "baseline": 3.448717948717949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 4, "beforeSOG": 3.6772905882027147, "adjustedSOG": 3.4198802470285248 } }, { "id": "8479314", "name": "Matthew Tkachuk", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 2.838709677419355, "currentTOI": 19.23939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 12.530303030303031, "ppShare": 0.7247063671955492, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 31, "currentTotalSOG": 22, "currentPPTOI": 5.328787878787879, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.0330000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.27572727272727277, "priorTOI": 18.30268817204301, "priorPPTOI": 3.281182795698925, "deploymentChange": 0.9367057673509294, "ppTOIChange": 2.0476050830889543, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.138950835138555, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 266.0, "goalExpected": 0.3083098210685762, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3083098210685762, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26531233897178425, "goalProbability": 0.26531233897178425, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.218841079732588, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.094316807738815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.18879727040091, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.530303030303031, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7247063671955492, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.2865283579666436, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.993836554207879, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3517, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.837606837606837, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.3367196460757, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.587096774193547, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6418222999859342, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0262037506335528, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0607986721865728, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0910116038884072, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.094316807738815, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.18879727040091, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 9, "toi": 16.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14953271028037382, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 107, "goalExpected": 0.42690259333260505, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.42690259333260505, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34747289037647355, "goalProbability": 0.34747289037647355, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856005660711126, "modelSOG": 2.218841079732588, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 31, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 266.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.138950835138555, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.440448773336443, "adjustedSOG": 2.434541452416708, "reductionPct": 0.24205879608194536, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.575160997658973, "afterPlayerForm": 1.575160997658973, "afterRecentDefense": 1.575160997658973, "afterRecentZones": 1.575160997658973, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.575160997658973, "adjusted": 1.575160997658973, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.21666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1323510394717824, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.147416398604457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5997805062888617, "afterPlayerForm": 0.59606730939265, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5936099669648109, "afterRecentZones": 0.5997805062888617, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5936099669648109, "adjusted": 0.5899349714226375, "playerFactor": 0.9938090737240075, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.0607986721865728, "newChartFactor": 1.0607986721865728, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9640899122807017, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.434541452416708, "adjustedSOG": 2.385850623368374, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 70.57769056839423, "btb": { "id": "8479314", "name": "Matthew Tkachuk", "score": 70.57769056839423, "components": { "Goal model": 88.63636363636364, "SOG model": 88.06818181818181, "Unit attack": 97.43589743589743, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.36842105263159, "Shot quality": 81.81818181818181, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.23172479694219, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8447996322157705, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 7 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": 11.293144289546774, "index": 111.29314428954677, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.973709834469329, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.467380720545277, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.43914313534566, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.55014605647517, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.5443037974683547, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0253164556962027, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": 2.02662240621909, "index": 102.02662240621909, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.904761904761903, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.95238095238095, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.61904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.952380952380952, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.293144289546774, "zonePPFit": 2.02662240621909, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479314", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020698", "date": "20220118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.9425357697233006, "trialBefore6040": 1.9425357697233006, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.9425357697233006, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1019056402614407, "attemptProjection": 2.247977367634229, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8270.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.530303030303031, "projectedAttempts": 3.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.447684999172792, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 3517.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.2865283579666436, "projectedAttempts": 1.096922241162917, "onNet": 0.5138506326279252, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.575160997658973, "ppAdjusted": 0.5997805062888617, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.174941503947835, "baseline": 2.838709677419355, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 31, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 22, "beforeSOG": 2.385850623368374, "adjustedSOG": 2.218841079732588 } }, { "id": "8479351", "name": "Sam Steel", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.1232876712328768, "currentTOI": 15.923333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 13.091666666666665, "ppShare": 0.033503277494537506, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 0.15333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.607, "currentIXG": 0.1607, "priorTOI": 16.062100456621003, "priorPPTOI": 0.44155251141552515, "deploymentChange": -0.13876712328767127, "ppTOIChange": -0.2882191780821918, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11219535665140727, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.13486557152944126, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13486557152944126, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12616662812343465, "goalProbability": 0.12616662812343465, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.2020601881811446, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.124761298535964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.091666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.033503277494537506, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.17469167273610098, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9845569359260292, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 92, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.305622963322471, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.861427094105481, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.171689497716894, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09141258462644469, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9082642180094787, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9338703796798385, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.124761298535964, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 13.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13978494623655913, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 93, "goalExpected": 0.1678731126996356, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1678731126996356, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15453889384385563, "goalProbability": 0.15453889384385563, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863481288999665, "modelSOG": 1.2020601881811446, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10326086956521739, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11219535665140727, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2169802046504818, "adjustedSOG": 1.2020601881811446, "reductionPct": 1.2259867837063343, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.879441893595552, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8774418444637757, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8565231261677148, "afterRecentZones": 0.879441893595552, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8565231261677148, "adjusted": 0.8545751994799899, "playerFactor": 0.9977257745550429, "defenseFactor": 0.9538803877813323, "oldChartFactor": 0.9338703796798385, "newChartFactor": 0.933261533014259, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9855708908406525, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7848038262416315, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2020601881811446, "adjustedSOG": 1.2020601881811446, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": -2.204320677338714, "index": 97.79567932266129, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.7, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.05, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.049999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.204320677338714, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479351", "goals": 2, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020669", "date": "20230112" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020845", "date": "20220227" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-25-2026", "availabilityCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.245743245518815, "trialBefore6040": 1.245743245518815, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.245743245518815, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.165, "attemptProjection": 1.393883787191104, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7855.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.091666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 2.1999999999999993, "onNet": 0.478646975511696, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 92.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.17469167273610098, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.879441893595552, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.279441893595552, "baseline": 1.1232876712328768, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2020601881811446, "adjustedSOG": 1.2020601881811446 } }, { "id": "8479378", "name": "Logan Stanley", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 1.263157894736842, "currentTOI": 20.665, "currentFiveTOI": 17.576666666666668, "ppShare": 0.026298044504383007, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.13, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.485, "currentIXG": 0.0485, "priorTOI": 16.697587719298244, "priorPPTOI": 0.418640350877193, "deploymentChange": 3.9674122807017547, "ppTOIChange": -0.288640350877193, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021301", "date": "20260415", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 20.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020882", "date": "20260202", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020473", "date": "20251209", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 11.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020017", "date": "20251009", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021255", "date": "20250410", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06283881488580362, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.05500237690507601, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05500237690507601, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05351710174919501, "goalProbability": 0.05351710174919501, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8752930335339919, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.048169922245401, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.576666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.026298044504383007, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14943863789615644, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 78, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.4260525368837715, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.314824515453116, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.626315789473683, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0873461908449934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7550410600861158, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.048169922245401, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021301", "date": "20260415", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 20.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020882", "date": "20260202", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020473", "date": "20251209", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 11.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020017", "date": "20251009", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021255", "date": "20250410", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020391", "date": "20241201", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020230", "date": "20241109", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08823529411764706, "goalHistoryGoals": 9, "goalHistoryShots": 102, "goalExpected": 0.1104499118237106, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1104499118237106, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10456882041895758, "goalProbability": 0.10456882041895758, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05772542536336709, "modelSOG": 0.8752930335339919, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06622516556291391, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06283881488580362, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8938455587174887, "adjustedSOG": 0.8931561566673387, "reductionPct": 0.07712764732412669, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6476373347045865, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6476373347045865, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6464883312876699, "afterRecentZones": 0.6476373347045865, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6464883312876699, "adjusted": 0.6464883312876699, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.7550410600861158, "newChartFactor": 0.7550410600861158, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 93.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1787811244583835, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8931561566673387, "adjustedSOG": 0.8752930335339919, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 42.564642645254914, "btb": { "id": "8479378", "name": "Logan Stanley", "score": 42.564642645254914, "components": { "Goal model": 16.477272727272727, "SOG model": 18.75, "Unit attack": 65.51724137931035, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 13.068181818181818, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 69.82097186700767, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.66291868682446, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 127 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 155, "fitPct": -8.165297997129471, "index": 91.83470200287053, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.8110599078341, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.663594470046082, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.064516129032258, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.797235023041475, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.6036866359447, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.059907834101383, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.165297997129471, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479378", "goals": 1, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025021301", "date": "20260415" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020882", "date": "20260202" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024021255", "date": "20250410" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020391", "date": "20241201" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023021262", "date": "20240411" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5312692823110715, "trialBefore6040": 0.5312692823110715, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5312692823110715, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.51, "attemptProjection": 0.785274669409173, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 10546.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.576666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 2.7, "onNet": 0.3374270656879353, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 78.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.14943863789615644, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6476373347045865, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6476373347045865, "baseline": 1.263157894736842, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 144, "beforeSOG": 0.8752930335339919, "adjustedSOG": 0.8752930335339919 } }, { "id": "8479425", "name": "Filip Hronek", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.670731707317073, "currentTOI": 25.481944444444448, "currentFiveTOI": 18.030555555555555, "ppShare": 0.6522864538395168, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 3.15, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.43699999999999994, "currentIXG": 0.03641666666666666, "priorTOI": 25.00569105691057, "priorPPTOI": 1.7959349593495937, "deploymentChange": 0.4762533875338768, "ppTOIChange": 1.3540650406504062, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 26.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 23.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 25.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 28.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05672587503381947, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.06937271194992001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07090177126982067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06702111711053199, "goalProbability": 0.06844660705960301, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14254899490710182, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.2229465285209016, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4957633646587585, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.5873015873015872, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.030555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6522864538395168, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.45032355478861, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2268, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6441010597640835, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.555907650520597, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.677642276422763, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47598013337786443, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0186339658834007, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9369356310465372, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9543944576304009, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4957633646587585, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.5873015873015872, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 26.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 23.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 25.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 28.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Filip Hronek" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05405405405405406, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 148, "goalExpected": 0.09003771350655433, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09003771350655433, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08610328162857983, "goalProbability": 0.08610328162857983, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776264636194244, "modelSOG": 1.2229465285209016, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 231.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05627705627705628, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05672587503381947, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2471801308340662, "adjustedSOG": 1.2229465285209016, "reductionPct": 1.9430715510964869, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6527606019707722, 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0.9598781107160996, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2229465285209016, "adjustedSOG": 1.2229465285209016, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 34.95531708290132, "btb": { "id": "8479425", "name": "Filip Hronek", "score": 34.95531708290132, "components": { "Goal model": 23.863636363636363, "SOG model": 43.18181818181818, "Unit attack": 24.137931034482758, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.73684210526316, "Shot quality": 3.977272727272727, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 54.24430641821946, "Goalie H2H": 51.73076923076923 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.014117085417743, "unitPlayers": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Filip Hronek" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 167 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": -2.1021456317820935, "index": 97.8978543682179, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.83022275737507, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3245033112582782, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.5298013245033113, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.119205298013245, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.606863335340158, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5894039735099341, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": 11.199849936816491, "index": 111.19984993681649, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.96774193548387, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.870967741935485, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1021456317820935, "zonePPFit": 11.199849936816491, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479425", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8945521813479698, "trialBefore6040": 0.8945521813479698, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8945521813479698, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9040993376145177, "attemptProjection": 1.0255254887429386, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 12982.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.030555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.4262041773231032, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2268.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.45032355478861, "projectedAttempts": 1.0040624101236695, "onNet": 0.36027887695496513, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6527606019707722, "ppAdjusted": 0.22871847787462252, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9648124131787281, "baseline": 1.670731707317073, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 101, "beforeSOG": 1.2229465285209016, "adjustedSOG": 1.2229465285209016 } }, { "id": "8479525", "name": "Ross Colton", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 2.095890410958904, "currentTOI": 12.808333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.103333333333333, "ppShare": 0.11384935786185352, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.5466666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3309999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.13309999999999997, "priorTOI": 12.517808219178082, "priorPPTOI": 0.7682648401826484, "deploymentChange": 0.2905251141552512, "ppTOIChange": -0.22159817351598177, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09966500347971738, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.15971989212456753, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15971989212456753, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14761748541459624, "goalProbability": 0.14761748541459624, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6025674664936103, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.453043238777196, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.103333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11384935786185352, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5222494293858404, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9785521780458758, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 328, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.103964897023362, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.558692421991084, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.551141552511416, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14024776041457437, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9228114880288792, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0377645811782081, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9981482809211099, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9576610773807289, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9913067071370502, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.453043238777196, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ross Colton", "Jack Drury", "Adam Edstrom" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6370602837112644, "adjustedSOG": 1.6025674664936103, "reductionPct": 2.106997375775188, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2092095236214697, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2075018188976434, "afterRecentDefense": 1.153350312544232, "afterRecentZones": 1.2092095236214697, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.153350312544232, "adjusted": 1.1517214949253798, "playerFactor": 0.9985877511792067, "defenseFactor": 0.9538051843075595, "oldChartFactor": 1.0377645811782081, "newChartFactor": 1.0377645811782081, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9908221832106895, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7837643119632204, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1219640085913681, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1219640085913681, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1219640085913681, "afterRecentZones": 0.1219640085913681, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1219640085913681, "adjusted": 0.1219640085913681, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9981482809211099, "newChartFactor": 0.9981482809211099, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.132987910189983, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6025674664936103, "adjustedSOG": 1.6025674664936103, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10067182474006857, "goalHistoryGoals": 26, "goalHistoryShots": 286, "goalExpected": 0.09643769437941577, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09643769437941577, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09193352651760414, "goalProbability": 0.09193352651760414, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869351357089776, "modelSOG": 1.6025674664936103, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0896551724137931, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09966500347971738, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.86292326094958, "btb": { "id": "8479525", "name": "Ross Colton", "score": 46.86292326094958, "components": { "Goal model": 59.09090909090909, "SOG model": 66.47727272727273, "Unit attack": 15.384615384615385, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.21052631578947, "Shot quality": 42.61363636363637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9676000212745277, "unitPlayers": [ "Ross Colton", "Jack Drury", "Adam Edstrom" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 100 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 223, "fitPct": 1.2588193726069363, "index": 101.25881937260694, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.17488789237668, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.68609865470852, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.96860986547085, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.71300448430493, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.84304932735426, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.614349775784754, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -0.061723969296338055, "index": 99.93827603070366, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 50, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.2588193726069363, "zonePPFit": -0.061723969296338055, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479525", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020593", "date": "20240104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020837", "date": "20230211" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021021173", "date": "20220412" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2128485331663272, "trialBefore6040": 1.2128485331663272, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2128485331663272, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1481301172191705, "attemptProjection": 1.5142169472065052, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7262.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.103333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.9000000000000004, "onNet": 0.452975275050278, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 328.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5222494293858404, "projectedAttempts": 0.2866002966141807, "onNet": 0.5518601428419145, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2092095236214697, "ppAdjusted": 0.1219640085913681, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.331173532212838, "baseline": 2.095890410958904, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 60, "beforeSOG": 1.6025674664936103, "adjustedSOG": 1.6025674664936103 } }, { "id": "8479980", "name": "Nicolas Hague", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 0.9032258064516129, "currentTOI": 17.865000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 16.794999999999998, "ppShare": 0.005900728913571677, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0.028333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.276, "currentIXG": 0.027600000000000003, "priorTOI": 19.63010752688172, "priorPPTOI": 0.06801075268817204, "deploymentChange": -1.7651075268817173, "ppTOIChange": -0.039677419354838706, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020358", "date": "20241127", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05763825717901751, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.05404508155884691, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05404508155884691, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0526106042517235, "goalProbability": 0.0526106042517235, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9376598843193571, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.857993450431676, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.794999999999998, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005900728913571677, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02706780579133929, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9918906336040819, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9624940655166956, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.986559139784948, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0168428183313773, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9772131912297699, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.029891718312716, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0064237726734806, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.857993450431676, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020358", "date": "20241127", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020010", "date": "20241009", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9376598843193571, "adjustedSOG": 0.9376598843193571, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8606159362311866, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8606159362311866, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8606159362311866, "afterRecentZones": 0.8606159362311866, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8606159362311866, "adjusted": 0.8606159362311866, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.029891718312716, "newChartFactor": 1.029891718312716, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1741281492834288, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1558877037776905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.016666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9376598843193571, "adjustedSOG": 0.9376598843193571, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.058088807718452116, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 137, "goalExpected": 0.04980055812962048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04980055812962048, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04858084160389097, "goalProbability": 0.04858084160389097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057755434657851844, "modelSOG": 0.9376598843193571, "historyGames": 140, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 62, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 139.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05755395683453238, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05763825717901751, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 30.636755485893417, "btb": { "id": "8479980", "name": "Nicolas Hague", "score": 30.636755485893417, "components": { "Goal model": 15.909090909090908, "SOG model": 23.295454545454547, "Unit attack": 10.344827586206897, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.681818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 31.25, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8084985968124268, "unitPlayers": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 176 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": 0.9963906104238731, "index": 100.99639061042387, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.97674418604652, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.9302325581395349, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8604651162790697, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.546511627906977, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.145348837209302, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.540697674418605, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9963906104238731, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479980", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2021020827", "date": "20220225" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9256519431934006, "trialBefore6040": 0.9256519431934006, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9256519431934006, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9051390181387844, "attemptProjection": 1.0160928543235888, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 10077.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.794999999999998, "projectedAttempts": 2.3, "onNet": 0.3833134802461783, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02706780579133929, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8606159362311866, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9606159362311866, "baseline": 0.9032258064516129, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 136, "beforeSOG": 0.9376598843193571, "adjustedSOG": 0.9376598843193571 } }, { "id": "8479983", "name": "Mario Ferraro", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.146341463414634, "currentTOI": 19.858333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 17.285, "ppShare": 0.0007776049766718507, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 0.003333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.4610000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.04610000000000001, "priorTOI": 21.028048780487804, "priorPPTOI": 0.046341463414634146, "deploymentChange": -1.16971544715447, "ppTOIChange": -0.04300813008130081, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021048", "date": "20260314", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020969", "date": "20260303", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020934", "date": "20250227", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 24.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06563038946530077, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 186.0, "goalExpected": 0.07109748073253573, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07109748073253573, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06862890303452025, "goalProbability": 0.06862890303452025, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.083301216277643, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.165461382701764, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.285, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0007776049766718507, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.004193234836702955, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7626937466595405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.11280487804878, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009221734171378651, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8315453454811519, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.165461382701764, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021048", "date": "20260314", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020969", "date": "20260303", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020934", "date": "20250227", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 24.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020858", "date": "20250204", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 22.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Elias Salomonsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07547169811320754, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 106, "goalExpected": 0.07690360923045937, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07690360923045937, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07402089485656257, "goalProbability": 0.07402089485656257, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770291387076018, "modelSOG": 1.083301216277643, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 186.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06989247311827956, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06563038946530077, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.103135492930053, "adjustedSOG": 1.083301216277643, "reductionPct": 1.7979909793064408, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9743315126069989, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9532638240995024, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9620770997350884, "afterRecentZones": 0.9743315126069989, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9620770997350885, "adjusted": 0.9412743848529824, "playerFactor": 0.9783772892132718, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8315453454811519, "newChartFactor": 0.8315453454811519, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8774334373968883, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.083301216277643, "adjustedSOG": 1.083301216277643, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 41.26424931087332, "btb": { "id": "8479983", "name": "Mario Ferraro", "score": 41.26424931087332, "components": { "Goal model": 24.431818181818183, "SOG model": 32.38636363636363, "Unit attack": 48.275862068965516, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.931818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.25199645075421, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.274679606204752, "unitPlayers": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Elias Salomonsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 138 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 127, "fitPct": -5.615155150628269, "index": 94.38484484937173, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.96653543307086, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2047244094488194, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9448818897637797, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.094488188976378, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.899606299212599, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8897637795275595, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.615155150628269, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479983", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.243441214871545, "trialBefore6040": 1.243441214871545, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.243441214871545, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.12, "attemptProjection": 1.0286630252139977, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10371.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.285, "projectedAttempts": 2.3000000000000003, "onNet": 0.4381080007941235, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.004193234836702955, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9743315126069989, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.074331512606999, "baseline": 1.146341463414634, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 120, "beforeSOG": 1.083301216277643, "adjustedSOG": 1.083301216277643 } }, { "id": "8480012", "name": "Elias Pettersson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.7837837837837838, "currentTOI": 19.57777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 13.348611111111111, "ppShare": 0.6724187517975266, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 3.2472222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.088, "currentIXG": 0.17400000000000002, "priorTOI": 18.96148648648649, "priorPPTOI": 2.9412162162162163, "deploymentChange": 0.6162912912912901, "ppTOIChange": 0.3060060060060059, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13089003838694588, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 258.0, "goalExpected": 0.20807065754371687, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21265678902355226, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18785034981484522, "goalProbability": 0.19156644712320864, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.37160973083634197, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5896599932884463, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.371137238580793, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.238665526090676, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.348611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6724187517975266, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.556815022529, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.031239781375825, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2338, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.662295081967213, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.994486560992419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.738738738738737, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.779516251186922, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0811611374407584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9469539681405107, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0471231658391522, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0238098292988342, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0440677278897819, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.371137238580793, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.238665526090676, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12162162162162163, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 148, "goalExpected": 0.21639434663661486, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21639434663661486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1945823744913962, "goalProbability": 0.1945823744913962, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285863374252662, "modelSOG": 1.5896599932884463, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 74, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 258.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13178294573643412, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13089003838694588, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6281849473041226, "adjustedSOG": 1.5896599932884463, "reductionPct": 2.366128865118433, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7757051691312657, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7571255930624063, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7345658326664131, "afterRecentZones": 0.7706204256315012, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7297507573111944, "adjusted": 0.7122718745522261, "playerFactor": 0.9760481471463349, "defenseFactor": 0.946965241303051, "oldChartFactor": 0.9469539681405107, "newChartFactor": 0.9344125295613654, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.233333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8444034440344403, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7485994496286027, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5820805538530825, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5820805538530825, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5820805538530825, "afterRecentZones": 0.5813055917393285, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5813055917393285, "adjusted": 0.5813055917393285, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0471231658391522, "newChartFactor": 1.0442848528207578, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.033333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3297312668846866, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5896599932884463, "adjustedSOG": 1.5896599932884463, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 50.63713875375644, "btb": { "id": "8480012", "name": "Elias Pettersson", "score": 50.63713875375644, "components": { "Goal model": 69.31818181818181, "SOG model": 63.63636363636363, "Unit attack": 23.076923076923077, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.73684210526316, "Shot quality": 57.38636363636363, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 56.29991126885537, "Goalie H2H": 51.9811320754717 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.040637888741214, "unitPlayers": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 73 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": -1.7682010619829782, "index": 98.23179893801702, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.619834710743802, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.256198347107436, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.884297520661157, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.619834710743802, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.975206611570247, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.644628099173554, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": 1.5707721946384083, "index": 101.57077219463841, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 41.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.7682010619829782, "zonePPFit": 1.5707721946384083, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480012", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.460534809589961, "trialBefore6040": 1.460534809589961, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.460534809589961, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5063290345666243, "attemptProjection": 1.5425757447354058, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9611.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.348611111111111, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.4853884822090438, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2338.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.556815022529, "projectedAttempts": 1.1866192119643368, "onNet": 0.5123335516262826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7757051691312657, "ppAdjusted": 0.5820805538530825, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5244523896510151, "baseline": 1.7837837837837838, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 65, "beforeSOG": 1.5896599932884463, "adjustedSOG": 1.5896599932884463 } }, { "id": "8480014", "name": "Gabriel Vilardi", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 1.829268292682927, "currentTOI": 17.303333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 13.280000000000001, "ppShare": 0.72900466562986, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 3.125, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.27, "currentIXG": 0.327, "priorTOI": 18.739634146341466, "priorPPTOI": 2.984552845528455, "deploymentChange": -1.4363008130081312, "ppTOIChange": 0.14044715447154488, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17799485092234005, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.3354500263454316, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3354500263454316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2849837622065921, "goalProbability": 0.2849837622065921, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.8846052265398954, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.518072289156627, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.52, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.280000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.72900466562986, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.93115765940902, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 1.0217826805282162, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1875, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.015103239955311, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.051757014437483, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.735975609756096, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6539766805918034, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0534211860111506, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.936362917626968, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.986384535223462, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.518072289156627, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.52, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.18072289156626506, "goalHistoryGoals": 30, "goalHistoryShots": 166, "goalExpected": 0.29061783595513824, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29061783595513824, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25219859377275344, "goalProbability": 0.25219859377275344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284195066709134, "modelSOG": 1.8846052265398954, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 298.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19463087248322147, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17799485092234005, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9495450609342178, "adjustedSOG": 1.8846052265398954, "reductionPct": 3.331025052747605, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.071304670753982, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0370760216032475, "afterRecentDefense": 1.071304670753982, "afterRecentZones": 1.068322313595489, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0683223135954887, "adjusted": 1.0341889520502385, "playerFactor": 0.9680495660243463, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.936362917626968, "newChartFactor": 0.9307006864167033, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8033067849581612, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0742240962189813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7584249023477634, "afterPlayerForm": 0.73018153464632, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7138925694081006, "afterRecentZones": 0.7584249023477634, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7138925694081005, "adjusted": 0.6873075637276358, "playerFactor": 0.9627604953186348, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7525586995785671, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8846052265398954, "adjustedSOG": 1.8846052265398954, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 67.75313138289192, "btb": { "id": "8480014", "name": "Gabriel Vilardi", "score": 67.75313138289192, "components": { "Goal model": 92.61363636363636, "SOG model": 75.56818181818181, "Unit attack": 82.05128205128206, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 85.22727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.266193433895296, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.054699190972155, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 15 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": -2.1212360791010667, "index": 97.87876392089893, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.229813664596273, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.447204968944103, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.62732919254658, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 79 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.478260869565217, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.22360248447205, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.9937888198757765, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": 11.568040877297378, "index": 111.56804087729738, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1212360791010667, "zonePPFit": 11.568040877297378, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480014", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.9258026881077825, "trialBefore6040": 1.9258026881077825, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.9258026881077825, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0543841464209738, "attemptProjection": 2.0050749997825172, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7968.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.280000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.4480589093337552, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1875.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.93115765940902, "projectedAttempts": 1.383767496111975, "onNet": 0.5147588708330351, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.071304670753982, "ppAdjusted": 0.7584249023477634, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0297295731017453, "baseline": 1.829268292682927, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 44, "beforeSOG": 1.8846052265398954, "adjustedSOG": 1.8846052265398954 } }, { "id": "8480018", "name": "Nick Suzuki", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 2.231707317073171, "currentTOI": 21.779629629629632, "currentFiveTOI": 15.787037037037038, "ppShare": 0.7144742630884294, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26, "currentPPTOI": 3.0074074074074075, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.9800000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.4422222222222223, "priorTOI": 20.820528455284553, "priorPPTOI": 3.3699186991869916, "deploymentChange": 0.9591011743450792, "ppTOIChange": -0.3625112917795841, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15976315077647585, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 381.0, "goalExpected": 0.4419002321111995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4419002321111995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3571862355713592, "goalProbability": 0.3571862355713592, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.765970938626898, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.756598240469208, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2167487684729066, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.787037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7144742630884294, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0424695703182283, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0056146327014217, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1624, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.19064402435117, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.119420989143546, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.224390243902441, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7093048128342246, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0726303317535546, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1159193728086187, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1227492671743744, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.756598240469208, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.2167487684729066, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.883092154442191, "adjustedSOG": 2.822419325129488, "reductionPct": 2.1044360035186616, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.0695397961122994, "afterPlayerForm": 2.0695397961122994, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9684184139244603, "afterRecentZones": 2.0695397961122994, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9684184139244603, "adjusted": 1.9684184139244603, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9511382277461883, "oldChartFactor": 1.1159193728086187, "newChartFactor": 1.1159193728086187, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0245274773298372, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7721603040897252, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.24780891657590515, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24780891657590515, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24780891657590515, "afterRecentZones": 0.24780891657590515, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24780891657590515, "adjusted": 0.24780891657590515, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1227492671743744, "newChartFactor": 1.1227492671743744, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.601577909270217, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.822419325129488, "adjustedSOG": 2.765970938626898, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16267942583732056, "goalHistoryGoals": 34, "goalHistoryShots": 209, "goalExpected": 0.4103815833932167, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4103815833932167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3366029394684903, "goalProbability": 0.3366029394684903, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846075523484882, "modelSOG": 2.765970938626898, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 381.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1679790026246719, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15976315077647585, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 180, "fitPct": 3.863979093620628, "index": 103.86397909362063, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.908496732026144, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.647058823529413, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.490196078431373, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.614379084967322, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.751633986928105, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": 4.091642239145813, "index": 104.09164223914581, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.380281690140844, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.21126760563379, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.028169014084508, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6901408450704227, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.863979093620628, "zonePPFit": 4.091642239145813, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480018", "goals": 1, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.0018794415625134, "trialBefore6040": 3.0018794415625134, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.0018794415625134, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.173711932345896, "attemptProjection": 3.4609854930305124, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8525.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.787037037037038, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.48212304926560595, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1624.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0424695703182283, "projectedAttempts": 0.6744390673119225, "onNet": 0.4870895312938535, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.0695397961122994, "ppAdjusted": 0.24780891657590515, "other": 1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.3173487126882044, "baseline": 2.231707317073171, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.765970938626898, "adjustedSOG": 2.765970938626898 } }, { "id": "8480027", "name": "Jason Robertson", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.3, "priorSOG": 3.597560975609756, "currentTOI": 20.216666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.415000000000001, "ppShare": 0.837946103423161, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 33, "currentPPTOI": 3.835, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.6830000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.3683, "priorTOI": 20.253048780487806, "priorPPTOI": 3.683130081300813, "deploymentChange": -0.03638211382114065, "ppTOIChange": 0.15186991869918698, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 23.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 2, "attempts": 10, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 3, "attempts": 8, "toi": 16.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14999565774771237, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 539.0, "goalExpected": 0.46341075207445936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.46341075207445936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3708658387338558, "goalProbability": 0.3708658387338558, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 3.0894944495920047, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.395394096659098, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.903520208604956, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.415000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.837946103423161, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.369190640932265, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0169073928345027, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2301, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.612690019828156, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.111859168920038, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.3760162601626, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7625014727416558, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0288182831661092, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9182019787326873, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9281873473209492, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9446629833594876, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.395394096659098, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.903520208604956, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 23.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 2, "attempts": 10, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 3, "attempts": 8, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14814814814814814, "goalHistoryGoals": 48, "goalHistoryShots": 324, "goalExpected": 0.557637218563136, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.557637218563136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4274396982672939, "goalProbability": 0.4274396982672939, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847225300788212, "modelSOG": 3.0894944495920047, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 83.0, "historyShots": 539.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15398886827458255, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14999565774771237, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.3497635212799617, "adjustedSOG": 3.322037042572048, "reductionPct": 0.8277145097490113, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8284002764611569, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8156902069277865, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8284002764611569, "afterRecentZones": 1.8284002764611569, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8284002764611569, "adjusted": 1.8156902069277865, "playerFactor": 0.9930485300746231, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9182019787326873, "newChartFactor": 0.9182019787326873, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 86.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9606810005382284, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.153661624575198, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.3561649419322757, "afterPlayerForm": 1.331665357459188, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3469981977162386, "afterRecentZones": 1.3561649419322757, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3469981977162386, "adjusted": 1.3226642136191227, "playerFactor": 0.9819346572709802, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.9281873473209492, "newChartFactor": 0.9279301662952294, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8908246225319397, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.322037042572048, "adjustedSOG": 3.322037042572048, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 67.82419314639812, "btb": { "id": "8480027", "name": "Jason Robertson", "score": 67.82419314639812, "components": { "Goal model": 97.1590909090909, "SOG model": 96.5909090909091, "Unit attack": 28.205128205128204, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 93.18181818181819, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.494232475598935, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0749467705564966, "unitPlayers": [ "Jason Robertson", "Roope Hintz", "Tyler Seguin" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 21, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 13 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 286, "fitPct": -2.726600708910425, "index": 97.27339929108958, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.004995004995006, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.218781218781217, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.319680319680323, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.73126873126873, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636362, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.08891108891109, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { 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} ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.726600708910425, "zonePPFit": -2.393755089301692, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480027", "goals": 5, "sog": 21, "shootingPct": 0.23809523809523808, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 33, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 3, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], 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Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.317648078305713, "trialBefore6040": 3.317648078305713, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.317648078305713, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.1506189546175496, "attemptProjection": 3.2185114821693155, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 41.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 9249.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.415000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 4.1000000000000005, "onNet": 0.4811543596590326, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 2301.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.369190640932265, "projectedAttempts": 2.3925163874726874, "onNet": 0.5950505291636826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8284002764611569, "ppAdjusted": 1.3561649419322757, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.1845652183934323, "baseline": 3.597560975609756, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 7, "beforeSOG": 3.322037042572048, "adjustedSOG": 3.0894944495920047 } }, { "id": "8480036", "name": "Miro Heiskanen", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 1.922077922077922, "currentTOI": 26.025, "currentFiveTOI": 17.806666666666665, "ppShare": 0.7574654042243263, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 3.4666666666666663, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.185, "currentIXG": 0.11850000000000001, "priorTOI": 25.472943722943725, "priorPPTOI": 3.2536796536796535, "deploymentChange": 0.5520562770562734, "ppTOIChange": 0.21298701298701284, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 27.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.060889768251242815, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.1047873559089814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1047873559089814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0994840083673481, "goalProbability": 0.0994840083673481, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7209353708920152, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.054286783976039, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.4615384615384617, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.806666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7574654042243263, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9495508618596746, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2080, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.321781097664492, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.029270888770623, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.84978354978355, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6735943268351999, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8888117417338419, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8178291378835375, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.054286783976039, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.4615384615384617, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 23.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 27.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07453416149068323, "goalHistoryGoals": 12, "goalHistoryShots": 161, "goalExpected": 0.14770277485244165, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14770277485244165, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13731251074399775, "goalProbability": 0.13731251074399775, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057727733259648153, "modelSOG": 1.7209353708920152, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 274.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06204379562043796, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060889768251242815, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7589127272547964, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209353708920152, "reductionPct": 2.1591381865804116, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3609114978343002, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3609114978343002, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3176620313339042, "afterRecentZones": 1.3609114978343002, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3176620313339042, "adjusted": 1.3176620313339042, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.8888117417338419, "newChartFactor": 0.8851217768598555, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 96.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.139474736701773, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.18922443287174578, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1703019895845712, "afterRecentDefense": 0.18797589492685912, "afterRecentZones": 0.18922443287174578, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.18797589492685912, "adjusted": 0.16917830543417323, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.8178291378835375, "newChartFactor": 0.8178291378835375, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7209353708920152, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209353708920152, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 50.54727506376682, "btb": { "id": "8480036", "name": "Miro Heiskanen", "score": 50.54727506376682, "components": { "Goal model": 36.36363636363637, "SOG model": 71.5909090909091, "Unit attack": 58.62068965517241, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 36.93181818181818, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.93167701863354, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.585633469548827, "unitPlayers": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 74 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": -3.7062752755386015, "index": 96.2937247244614, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 39.717813051146386, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.559082892416225, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.5855379188712515, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.211640211640212, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.821869488536155, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.1040564373897706, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -6.072362070548749, "index": 93.92763792945125, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.07692307692307, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6923076923076925, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.7062752755386015, "zonePPFit": -6.072362070548749, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480036", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7147650895987512, "trialBefore6040": 1.7147650895987512, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7147650895987512, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.568679898033503, "attemptProjection": 1.7315919633785892, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 10684.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.806666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 3.8999999999999995, "onNet": 0.3930548770558541, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2080.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9495508618596746, "projectedAttempts": 0.4557174071376548, "onNet": 0.4255002128565347, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3609114978343002, "ppAdjusted": 0.18922443287174578, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6501359307060461, "baseline": 1.922077922077922, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 51, "beforeSOG": 1.7209353708920152, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209353708920152 } }, { "id": "8480039", "name": "Martin Necas", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 2.641025641025641, "currentTOI": 20.05, "currentFiveTOI": 15.787878787878787, "ppShare": 0.6213967310549777, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 24, "currentPPTOI": 3.1681818181818184, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.24, "currentIXG": 0.29454545454545455, "priorTOI": 21.498076923076923, "priorPPTOI": 3.8604700854700855, "deploymentChange": -1.448076923076922, "ppTOIChange": -0.6922882672882671, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 25.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.5 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16000909929181303, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.3404443635767639, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3404443635767639, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2885458917815312, "goalProbability": 0.2885458917815312, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.127656271321708, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.182341650671785, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.329985652797705, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.787878787878787, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6213967310549777, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1106555450493043, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2091, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.198363035964382, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.158465710964743, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.629700854700854, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7047339085645536, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0352762290927522, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.149227873568282, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.182341650671785, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.329985652797705, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 16.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 25.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020553", "date": "20241223", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4020362705174385, "adjustedSOG": 2.334492288042252, "reductionPct": 2.811946817965272, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.492123283045657, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4138471749363632, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4905328348496791, "afterRecentZones": 1.492123283045657, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4905328348496791, "adjusted": 1.4123401609286628, "playerFactor": 0.9475404552702107, "defenseFactor": 0.9989341040287694, "oldChartFactor": 1.149227873568282, "newChartFactor": 1.149227873568282, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.36666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6945843455590448, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9950752922127964, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.47785946773904053, "afterPlayerForm": 0.44506928573072346, "afterRecentDefense": 0.47785946773904053, "afterRecentZones": 0.47785946773904053, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.47785946773904053, "adjusted": 0.44506928573072346, "playerFactor": 0.9313811188811189, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.47031039136302294, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.334492288042252, "adjustedSOG": 2.2878024422814067, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.18777292576419213, "goalHistoryGoals": 43, "goalHistoryShots": 229, "goalExpected": 0.4176979186695225, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4176979186695225, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3414388625954421, "goalProbability": 0.3414388625954421, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844768028910028, "modelSOG": 2.127656271321708, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 71.0, "historyShots": 424.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16745283018867924, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16000909929181303, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.2163646803235, "btb": { "id": "8480039", "name": "Martin Necas", "score": 66.2163646803235, "components": { "Goal model": 93.18181818181819, "SOG model": 84.6590909090909, "Unit attack": 89.74358974358974, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 42.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 82.38636363636364, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.15683229813664, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.298620083409875, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 22 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": 4.974262452276065, "index": 104.97426245227607, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.783123612139157, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.376757957068836, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.75499629903775, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.19541080680977, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.618060695780903, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2716506291635827, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 83, "fitPct": -21.510381439576562, "index": 78.48961856042344, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.228915662650602, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.319277108433734, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.656626506024097, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 43.975903614457835, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.819277108433734, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.974262452276065, "zonePPFit": -21.510381439576562, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480039", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.193844720561936, "trialBefore6040": 2.193844720561936, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.193844720561936, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.296126975550452, "attemptProjection": 2.1892930714734886, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 10420.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.787878787878787, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.5187510543184886, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2091.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1106555450493043, "projectedAttempts": 1.160359313791706, "onNet": 0.5123335516262826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.492123283045657, "ppAdjusted": 0.47785946773904053, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2427100235119704, "baseline": 2.641025641025641, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 26, "beforeSOG": 2.2878024422814067, "adjustedSOG": 2.127656271321708 } }, { "id": "8480049", "name": "Dylan Samberg", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.3181818181818181, "currentTOI": 22.683333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 19.625, "ppShare": 0.04937791601866252, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.21166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.417, "currentIXG": 0.0417, "priorTOI": 21.82171717171717, "priorPPTOI": 0.1053030303030303, "deploymentChange": 0.861616161616162, "ppTOIChange": 0.10636363636363637, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 22.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04348688082385661, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.04996251779771993, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04996251779771993, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04873492065737527, "goalProbability": 0.04873492065737527, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1489101276335005, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6687898089171975, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04937791601866252, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2662704121306376, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 127, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6988834851702173, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.433080808080806, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023074051550807852, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8300511400536922, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6687898089171975, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 22.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.01020408163265306, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 98, "goalExpected": 0.01183525305993556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01183525305993556, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.011765491937173835, "goalProbability": 0.011765491937173835, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057851429622138455, "modelSOG": 1.1489101276335005, "historyGames": 136, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 66, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03608247422680412, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04348688082385661, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1578703537523145, "adjustedSOG": 1.1489101276335005, "reductionPct": 0.7738540061740573, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0509960441326454, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0503310055696775, "afterRecentDefense": 1.036718337996248, "afterRecentZones": 1.0509960441326454, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.036718337996248, "adjusted": 1.0360623339346222, "playerFactor": 0.9993672301939854, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8300511400536922, "newChartFactor": 0.8296505482917742, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 101.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.996648214920522, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1489101276335005, "adjustedSOG": 1.1489101276335005, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 38.10687906546227, "btb": { "id": "8480049", "name": "Dylan Samberg", "score": 38.10687906546227, "components": { "Goal model": 13.636363636363637, "SOG model": 37.5, "Unit attack": 44.827586206896555, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 9.090909090909092, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.085045389393215, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.164857502246499, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 150 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": -5.664961998210259, "index": 94.33503800178974, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.3030303030303, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 89 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.664961998210259, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480049", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.143441214871545, "trialBefore6040": 1.143441214871545, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.143441214871545, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.02, "attemptProjection": 1.0819920882652907, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 11775.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.625, "projectedAttempts": 2.9000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4048339754173546, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 127.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2662704121306376, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0509960441326454, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0509960441326454, "baseline": 1.3181818181818181, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 111, "beforeSOG": 1.1489101276335005, "adjustedSOG": 1.1489101276335005 } }, { "id": "8480069", "name": "Cale Makar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.6533333333333333, "currentTOI": 22, "currentFiveTOI": 15.298333333333332, "ppShare": 0.7720275139207337, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 27, "currentPPTOI": 3.9283333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.778, "currentIXG": 0.1778, "priorTOI": 24.847555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 3.9259999999999997, "deploymentChange": -2.847555555555555, "ppTOIChange": 0.0023333333333335204, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 23.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 11, "toi": 30.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 25.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10265024126925584, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 472.0, "goalExpected": 0.24787337774043827, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24787337774043827, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21954123952658014, "goalProbability": 0.21954123952658014, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.4147374100198764, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.843991720230962, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.164191769198133, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.298333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7720275139207337, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8646995503677455, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2357, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3053, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.940074250928137, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.7809475292919, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.777555555555555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7166964809384163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.190152185145739, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.957033790238619, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8551717582216836, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.843991720230962, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.164191769198133, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 23.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6, "goals": 1, "attempts": 11, "toi": 30.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 24.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 27.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 7, "toi": 26.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.6553383794226058, "adjustedSOG": 2.649481468092908, "reductionPct": 0.2205711850167713, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.102817038061535, "afterPlayerForm": 2.102817038061535, "afterRecentDefense": 2.102817038061535, "afterRecentZones": 2.0945819139607633, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.0945819139607633, "adjusted": 2.0945819139607633, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.190152185145739, "newChartFactor": 1.1816295321514088, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2157615894039735, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.45385803875391934, "afterPlayerForm": 0.45385803875391934, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4523316439718611, "afterRecentZones": 0.4531852963162951, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4523316439718611, "adjusted": 0.4523316439718611, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 0.957033790238619, "newChartFactor": 0.9544828864013389, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.366666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1063996244719136, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.649481468092908, "adjustedSOG": 2.59649183873105, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1031390134529148, "goalHistoryGoals": 23, "goalHistoryShots": 223, "goalExpected": 0.23196102623021111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23196102623021111, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2070229719914191, "goalProbability": 0.2070229719914191, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05715938006014342, "modelSOG": 2.4147374100198764, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 472.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11228813559322035, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10265024126925584, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.48137762543882, "btb": { "id": "8480069", "name": "Cale Makar", "score": 64.48137762543882, "components": { "Goal model": 81.81818181818181, "SOG model": 91.47727272727273, "Unit attack": 96.55172413793103, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 59.65909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.309868875086266, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.321455676036357, "unitPlayers": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 29 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 204, "fitPct": 6.338406171524639, "index": 106.33840617152464, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.73109243697479, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.42296918767507, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.492997198879552, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.476190476190477, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.537815126050422, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.338935574229692, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -1.4322069920460336, "index": 98.56779300795397, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 94.3529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.8235294117647065, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.338406171524639, "zonePPFit": -1.4322069920460336, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480069", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.7205620754619626, "trialBefore6040": 2.7205620754619626, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.7205620754619626, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9047914668710866, "attemptProjection": 2.4085586867598225, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9179.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.298333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 3.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.44424315619967797, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2357.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.8646995503677455, "projectedAttempts": 1.0821814608581724, "onNet": 0.44224609006971927, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.102817038061535, "ppAdjusted": 0.45385803875391934, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6566750768154543, "baseline": 2.6533333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 16, "beforeSOG": 2.59649183873105, "adjustedSOG": 2.4147374100198764 } }, { "id": "8480074", "name": "Alexandre Texier", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.4509803921568627, "currentTOI": 13.035, "currentFiveTOI": 11.59, "ppShare": 0.2824457593688363, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 1.1933333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3339999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.1334, "priorTOI": 13.653921568627451, "priorPPTOI": 0.973202614379085, "deploymentChange": -0.6189215686274512, "ppTOIChange": 0.2201307189542484, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020099", "date": "20241022", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11706633390183299, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.1779643981272878, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1779643981272878, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16302777926318765, "goalProbability": 0.16302777926318765, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.520201343936519, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.729939603106126, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.59, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2824457593688363, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.202748191978961, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 0.9764003632370333, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 716, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.460771971178314, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.25319006044325, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.200326797385621, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20484093530460315, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9445514445007603, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1425611494377506, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.778253304426785, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0792077841318763, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.729939603106126, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020099", "date": "20241022", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5536487012059637, "adjustedSOG": 1.5512258611597132, "reductionPct": 0.15594516600631048, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4412941002746893, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4412941002746893, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4395782739648384, "afterRecentZones": 1.4389690919737643, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4372560335309386, "adjusted": 1.4372560335309386, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9988095238095238, "oldChartFactor": 1.1425611494377506, "newChartFactor": 1.1387742346345369, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0429331306990883, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9944488764791916, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.08080014029734142, "afterPlayerForm": 0.08080014029734142, "afterRecentDefense": 0.08080014029734142, "afterRecentZones": 0.08080014029734142, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.08080014029734142, "adjusted": 0.08080014029734142, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.778253304426785, "newChartFactor": 0.7719250795008692, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4916666666666667, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5512258611597132, "adjustedSOG": 1.520201343936519, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10227272727272728, "goalHistoryGoals": 9, "goalHistoryShots": 88, "goalExpected": 0.16061312777898135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16061312777898135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1483785239238566, "goalProbability": 0.1483785239238566, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861787468636252, "modelSOG": 1.520201343936519, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 51, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 138.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10869565217391304, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11706633390183299, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 53.464556753315335, "btb": { "id": "8480074", "name": "Alexandre Texier", "score": 53.464556753315335, "components": { "Goal model": 62.5, "SOG model": 60.79545454545455, "Unit attack": 84.61538461538461, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 32.89473684210526, "Shot quality": 43.18181818181818, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.70393374741201, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.161490446185151, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 68 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 4.752038314591687, "index": 104.75203831459169, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.036477331943722, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.078686816050027, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.76810838978635, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.394476289734236, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.138092756644086, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5841584158415842, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": -7.391556519107169, "index": 92.60844348089283, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 45, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.752038314591687, "zonePPFit": -7.391556519107169, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480074", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020851", "date": "20250204" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020736", "date": "20240123" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4371410420901756, "trialBefore6040": 1.4371410420901756, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4371410420901756, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5029701193714393, "attemptProjection": 1.7412183617726222, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 6954.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.59, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.48652044779529363, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 716.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.202748191978961, "projectedAttempts": 0.3023668639053254, "onNet": 0.47925077586443654, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4412941002746893, "ppAdjusted": 0.08080014029734142, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6220942405720309, "baseline": 1.4509803921568627, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 70, "beforeSOG": 1.520201343936519, "adjustedSOG": 1.520201343936519 } }, { "id": "8480078", "name": "Filip Chytil", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 19.566666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 15.5375, "ppShare": 0.20915032679738563, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.9333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.41500000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.10375000000000001, "priorTOI": 15.005555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 1.2125000000000001, "deploymentChange": 4.561111111111112, "ppTOIChange": -0.2791666666666668, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11016653260916197, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.17836531227840752, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1822967016593384, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16336326601538828, "goalProbability": 0.16664595379707697, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.32826877816886924, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6190517033988399, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8616251005631534, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.5375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20915032679738563, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.106318082788671, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.031239781375825, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 224, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1071, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0811611374407584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9365103210337179, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.012518563913824, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8616251005631534, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Liam Ohgren", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10714285714285714, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 28, "goalExpected": 0.22251332683595187, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22251332683595187, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.199495661510856, "goalProbability": 0.199495661510856, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863631543600437, "modelSOG": 1.6190517033988399, "historyGames": 72, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 12, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09876543209876543, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11016653260916197, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6522300253434197, "adjustedSOG": 1.6190517033988399, "reductionPct": 2.0080933910932686, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.024476886169769, "afterPlayerForm": 1.024476886169769, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9701440017211537, "afterRecentZones": 1.023458560733638, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9691796829288027, "adjusted": 0.9691796829288027, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.946965241303051, "oldChartFactor": 0.9365103210337179, "newChartFactor": 0.9346265584735102, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7485994496286027, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.14590648940259712, "afterPlayerForm": 0.14590648940259712, "afterRecentDefense": 0.14590648940259712, "afterRecentZones": 0.14590648940259712, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.14590648940259712, "adjusted": 0.14590648940259712, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.7333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6190517033988399, "adjustedSOG": 1.6190517033988399, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 44.62213156173481, "btb": { "id": "8480078", "name": "Filip Chytil", "score": 44.62213156173481, "components": { "Goal model": 63.06818181818182, "SOG model": 68.18181818181819, "Unit attack": 10.256410256410257, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.63157894736842, "Shot quality": 48.01136363636363, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 50.31055900621118, "Goalie H2H": 50.34313725490196 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.926304614118001, "unitPlayers": [ "Liam Ohgren", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 117 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": -2.1163226322094033, "index": 97.8836773677906, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 10.509809373299916, "index": 110.50980937329992, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1163226322094033, "zonePPFit": 10.509809373299916, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480078", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2243154985273783, "trialBefore6040": 1.2243154985273783, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2243154985273783, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2625185639138239, "attemptProjection": 1.5782481872309082, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.5375, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.49936580062444247, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 224.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.106318082788671, "projectedAttempts": 0.5926704014939308, "onNet": 0.5053271875472268, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.024476886169769, "ppAdjusted": 0.14590648940259712, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.420383375572366, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 57, "beforeSOG": 1.6190517033988399, "adjustedSOG": 1.6190517033988399 } }, { "id": "8480113", "name": "Alex Iafallo", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.4430379746835442, "currentTOI": 13.688333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.315000000000001, "ppShare": 0.1411353032659409, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 0.605, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.469, "currentIXG": 0.1469, "priorTOI": 15.59029535864979, "priorPPTOI": 1.1837552742616033, "deploymentChange": -1.9019620253164575, "ppTOIChange": -0.5787552742616033, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 14.1 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12937795327287763, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.1733234369919586, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1733234369919586, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15913439618375969, "goalProbability": 0.15913439618375969, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.339667482808244, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.423773751657093, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.315000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1411353032659409, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7610721228615863, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 1.0217826805282162, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 363, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0478389970306825, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.473534129388701, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.78902953586498, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2593850352003299, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9689520624303234, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9542735421325781, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9246453167720516, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.423773751657093, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12307692307692308, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 130, "goalExpected": 0.1454418662201702, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1454418662201702, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13535984658674904, "goalProbability": 0.13535984658674904, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859126159505513, "modelSOG": 1.339667482808244, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1297071129707113, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12937795327287763, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.37061932806, "adjustedSOG": 1.339667482808244, "reductionPct": 2.2582379088120663, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1223402303109709, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1223402303109709, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0731847223004782, "afterRecentZones": 1.1197979860519602, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.070753821558044, "adjusted": 1.070753821558044, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.956202667708995, "oldChartFactor": 0.9542735421325781, "newChartFactor": 0.9505253922976282, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.483333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.106650662398862, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7934609801617474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.339667482808244, "adjustedSOG": 1.339667482808244, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 53.57099293046498, "btb": { "id": "8480113", "name": "Alex Iafallo", "score": 53.57099293046498, "components": { "Goal model": 60.79545454545455, "SOG model": 51.13636363636363, "Unit attack": 82.05128205128206, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.66637089618456, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.054699190972155, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Iafallo", "Viggo Björck", "Gabriel Vilardi" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 67 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -1.5242152622473952, "index": 98.4757847377526, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.385496183206108, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.049618320610687, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.34923664122138, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.774809160305344, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.248091603053435, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.192748091603054, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.5242152622473952, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480113", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5725943822004713, "trialBefore6040": 1.5725943822004713, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5725943822004713, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4945034434808724, "attemptProjection": 1.1501770171410695, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 6789.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.315000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 1.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.5727734548240133, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 363.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7610721228615863, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1223402303109709, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3223402303109708, "baseline": 1.4430379746835442, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 87, "beforeSOG": 1.339667482808244, "adjustedSOG": 1.339667482808244 } }, { "id": "8480145", "name": "Neal Pionk", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 1.9019607843137254, "currentTOI": 24.598333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 18.855, "ppShare": 0.5991446345256609, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 19, "currentPPTOI": 2.5683333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.717, "currentIXG": 0.17170000000000002, "priorTOI": 22.70980392156863, "priorPPTOI": 1.545751633986928, "deploymentChange": 1.8885294117647042, "ppTOIChange": 1.0225816993464054, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 24.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05833341308108881, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.10464689046774565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10464689046774565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09935750810699412, "goalProbability": 0.09935750810699412, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.7939442412237536, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.455051710421639, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.008436080467229, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.855, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5991446345256609, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2308874416796267, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1541, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.421955780442196, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 19.788583509513742, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.82549019607843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.33870585475766185, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8293533547202857, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8828919747958025, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8533044050979044, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.455051710421639, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.008436080467229, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 24.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03508771929824561, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 114, "goalExpected": 0.06630294991447108, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06630294991447108, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.064152693519576, "goalProbability": 0.064152693519576, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775027034489106, "modelSOG": 1.7939442412237536, "historyGames": 130, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 51, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058577405857740586, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05833341308108881, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8160048791996113, "adjustedSOG": 1.7939442412237536, "reductionPct": 1.2147895762031569, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2504968992619654, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2401516286645413, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2331973418946154, "afterRecentZones": 1.2504968992619654, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2331973418946154, "adjusted": 1.2229951892867574, "playerFactor": 0.9917270721714466, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8293533547202857, "newChartFactor": 0.8293533547202857, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 98.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9556512924480487, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.30820404319490313, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30820404319490313, "afterRecentDefense": 0.29893802321034857, "afterRecentZones": 0.30820404319490313, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.29893802321034857, "adjusted": 0.29893802321034857, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 0.8828919747958025, "newChartFactor": 0.8828919747958025, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.283333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1987553481135744, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7939442412237536, "adjustedSOG": 1.7939442412237536, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 48.77193483349287, "btb": { "id": "8480145", "name": "Neal Pionk", "score": 48.77193483349287, "components": { "Goal model": 35.79545454545455, "SOG model": 73.86363636363636, "Unit attack": 44.827586206896555, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 57.95454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.04825609173435, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.164857502246499, "unitPlayers": [ "Dylan Samberg", "Neal Pionk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 87 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": -5.68822150932381, "index": 94.31177849067619, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 79.9, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.9, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.9, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.9, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": -3.903600840139916, "index": 96.09639915986008, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.94736842105264, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.052631578947368, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.68822150932381, "zonePPFit": -3.903600840139916, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480145", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.8962286109257223, "trialBefore6040": 1.8962286109257223, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.8962286109257223, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.712029518199176, "attemptProjection": 1.805372366714561, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 11313.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.855, "projectedAttempts": 3.6000000000000005, "onNet": 0.3951381867205932, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1541.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2308874416796267, "projectedAttempts": 0.7547822706065319, "onNet": 0.4281609195402299, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2504968992619654, "ppAdjusted": 0.30820404319490313, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7587009424568685, "baseline": 1.9019607843137254, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 47, "beforeSOG": 1.7939442412237536, "adjustedSOG": 1.7939442412237536 } }, { "id": "8480185", "name": "Eetu Luostarinen", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.4657534246575343, "currentTOI": 16.16969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 11.595454545454546, "ppShare": 0.23593653410261695, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 1.7348484848484846, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.181, "currentIXG": 0.19827272727272727, "priorTOI": 16.57420091324201, "priorPPTOI": 1.0337899543378997, "deploymentChange": -0.4045039435450377, "ppTOIChange": 0.701058530510585, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11246382531663186, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 210.0, "goalExpected": 0.15958799890900244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15958799890900244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14750505452958362, "goalProbability": 0.14750505452958362, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.4190162788763112, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.64484515876127, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.43231441048035, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.595454545454546, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23593653410261695, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3955288512572668, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 1.0349871316563095, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1145, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.00277932184547, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.10600706713781, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.14337899543379, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20221654430995226, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.009004739336493, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.228658302438963, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.64484515876127, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.43231441048035, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lars Eller", "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10833333333333334, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 120, "goalExpected": 0.1601914878002971, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1601914878002971, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1480193705514475, "goalProbability": 0.1480193705514475, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863785848155876, "modelSOG": 1.4190162788763112, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 73, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 210.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10476190476190476, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11246382531663186, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4873227453757536, "adjustedSOG": 1.4479757947717462, "reductionPct": 2.645488393581108, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1812119805114805, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1179956601411118, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1812119805114805, "afterRecentZones": 1.1812119805114805, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1812119805114805, "adjusted": 1.1179956601411118, "playerFactor": 0.9464818157846697, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.38333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6350773826812165, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.027893857083159, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.22958122110066181, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22958122110066181, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22721929046435174, "afterRecentZones": 0.22958122110066181, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.22721929046435177, "adjusted": 0.22721929046435177, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.228658302438963, "newChartFactor": 1.228658302438963, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.683333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3186180422264877, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4479757947717462, "adjustedSOG": 1.4190162788763112, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 51.5162621852921, "btb": { "id": "8480185", "name": "Eetu Luostarinen", "score": 51.5162621852921, "components": { "Goal model": 58.52272727272727, "SOG model": 56.25, "Unit attack": 41.02564102564103, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 53.94736842105263, "Shot quality": 69.31818181818181, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.13398402839397, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.266913883867472, "unitPlayers": [ "Lars Eller", "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 71 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": 10.5506164044468, "index": 110.5506164044468, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.9669421487603307, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.460448642266822, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.896103896103895, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.754427390791026, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9834710743801653, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.9386068476977565, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 7.621943414632099, "index": 107.6219434146321, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.538461538461537, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.5506164044468, "zonePPFit": 7.621943414632099, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480185", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5246325810871975, "trialBefore6040": 1.5246325810871975, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5246325810871975, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5977466609220161, "attemptProjection": 1.40565792412045, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7653.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.595454545454546, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909094, "onNet": 0.5180992497038305, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1145.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3955288512572668, "projectedAttempts": 0.3656407470543057, "onNet": 0.5681561376476632, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1812119805114805, "ppAdjusted": 0.22958122110066181, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.501702292521233, "baseline": 1.4657534246575343, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 78, "beforeSOG": 1.4190162788763112, "adjustedSOG": 1.4190162788763112 } }, { "id": "8480246", "name": "Nick Perbix", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.072222222222223, "currentFiveTOI": 14.466666666666665, "ppShare": 0.013763129300977906, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.07037037037037036, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.43300000000000005, "currentIXG": 0.04811111111111112, "priorTOI": 19.112025316455696, "priorPPTOI": 0.08206751054852321, "deploymentChange": -1.0398030942334735, "ppTOIChange": -0.011697140178152848, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 23.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05909882439382807, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.048171324025383974, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048171324025383974, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04702949365227151, "goalProbability": 0.04702949365227151, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8150978385690986, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.304147465437788, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.466666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013763129300977906, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06313418502299344, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9918906336040819, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 38, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2761, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3462657613967024, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.254498714652957, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.660759493670886, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.020323965203189957, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9772131912297699, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0150030151157228, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1808382671071893, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9918743355090738, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.304147465437788, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 23.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.815186028894552, "adjustedSOG": 0.8150978385690986, "reductionPct": 0.010818429453840483, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6726342485853438, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6726342485853438, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6726342485853438, "afterRecentZones": 0.6725886226112767, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6725886226112767, "adjusted": 0.6725886226112767, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0150030151157228, "newChartFactor": 1.014834931520336, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.049675503540572, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1558877037776905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.01934246623890945, "afterPlayerForm": 0.01924110833722084, "afterRecentDefense": 0.01934246623890945, "afterRecentZones": 0.01934246623890945, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.01934246623890945, "adjusted": 0.01924110833722084, "playerFactor": 0.994759825327511, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1808382671071893, "newChartFactor": 1.1797540466693004, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.26666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8150978385690986, "adjustedSOG": 0.8150978385690986, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.059541129256542376, "goalHistoryGoals": 9, "goalHistoryShots": 148, "goalExpected": 0.021801508905378755, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021801508905378755, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021565573701753073, "goalProbability": 0.021565573701753073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774706098457017, "modelSOG": 0.8150978385690986, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05909882439382807, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.50939343639868, "btb": { "id": "8480246", "name": "Nick Perbix", "score": 36.50939343639868, "components": { "Goal model": 13.068181818181818, "SOG model": 14.204545454545455, "Unit attack": 17.24137931034483, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.477272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 65.42443064182194, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9580497263280527, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Skjei", "Nick Perbix" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 159 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": 0.5001005038574249, "index": 100.50010050385742, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.23076923076924, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.4615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.923076923076922, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.769230769230769, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 6.027942236906313, "index": 106.02794223690631, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 60, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.5001005038574249, "zonePPFit": 6.027942236906313, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480246", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020837", "date": "20230211" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.573369404995417, "trialBefore6040": 0.573369404995417, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.573369404995417, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5510412975050409, "attemptProjection": 0.8329121321434656, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 7812.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.466666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 2.111111111111111, "onNet": 0.3620562906952321, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 38.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.06313418502299344, "projectedAttempts": 0.09968555529946332, "onNet": 0.4113139508677034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6726342485853438, "ppAdjusted": 0.01934246623890945, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6919767148242533, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 152, "beforeSOG": 0.8150978385690986, "adjustedSOG": 0.8150978385690986 } }, { "id": "8480289", "name": "Morgan Barron", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.4307692307692308, "currentTOI": 14.665000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 12.216666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0011664074650077762, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 10, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2489999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.12489999999999998, "priorTOI": 12.8, "priorPPTOI": 0.030256410256410255, "deploymentChange": 1.8650000000000002, "ppTOIChange": -0.025256410256410254, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10765150592119566, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.12978616076924596, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12978616076924596, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12171677775010088, "goalProbability": 0.12171677775010088, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.20561398243935, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.42019099590723, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.216666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0011664074650077762, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.006289852255054433, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9931269287997355, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.829624224735498, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.542307692307693, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006629799427326749, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9453791469194313, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.968986280988614, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9160594236976481, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.42019099590723, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nino Niederreiter", "Morgan Barron", "Cole Koepke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10679611650485436, "goalHistoryGoals": 11, "goalHistoryShots": 103, "goalExpected": 0.1388006427038816, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1388006427038816, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1295984679409588, "goalProbability": 0.1295984679409588, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864845752673915, "modelSOG": 1.20561398243935, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 65, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 196.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09693877551020408, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10765150592119566, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.20561398243935, "adjustedSOG": 1.20561398243935, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9555104835527628, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9555104835527628, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9555104835527628, "afterRecentZones": 0.9555104835527628, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9555104835527628, "adjusted": 0.9555104835527628, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.968986280988614, "newChartFactor": 0.968986280988614, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0383907068989942, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1008577514971376, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.20561398243935, "adjustedSOG": 1.20561398243935, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 42.00347594951632, "btb": { "id": "8480289", "name": "Morgan Barron", "score": 42.00347594951632, "components": { "Goal model": 48.29545454545455, "SOG model": 41.47727272727273, "Unit attack": 7.6923076923076925, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 40.90909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 36.06921029281278, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9071628967013199, "unitPlayers": [ "Nino Niederreiter", "Morgan Barron", "Cole Koepke" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 132 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": -1.0337906337128686, "index": 98.96620936628713, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.441893830703012, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.630798660927784, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.60736489717838, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.815877570540408, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6260162601626018, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0337906337128686, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480289", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.957635820731922, "trialBefore6040": 0.957635820731922, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.957635820731922, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9244534813278833, "attemptProjection": 1.1865674857776425, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7330.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.216666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.6, "onNet": 0.453455029432133, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.006289852255054433, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9555104835527628, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.055510483552763, "baseline": 1.4307692307692308, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 104, "beforeSOG": 1.20561398243935, "adjustedSOG": 1.20561398243935 } }, { "id": "8480448", "name": "Parker Kelly", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 1.2682926829268293, "currentTOI": 12.946969696969695, "currentFiveTOI": 10.972727272727273, "ppShare": 0.00237741456166419, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.052, "currentIXG": 0.09563636363636364, "priorTOI": 12.702642276422763, "priorPPTOI": 0.03394308943089431, "deploymentChange": 0.24432742054693257, "ppTOIChange": -0.021821877309682186, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 9.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.766666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13605486280999712, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 215.0, "goalExpected": 0.16977083626117104, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16977083626117104, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15614182386527548, "goalProbability": 0.15614182386527548, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.247811601546788, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.965202982601491, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.972727272727273, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00237741456166419, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01190112116709442, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.380616637126775, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 21.55688622754491, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.435569105691057, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006196355768543022, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.08853672985782, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0870520576160443, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.965202982601491, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 9.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 13.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2945619558974983, "adjustedSOG": 1.273277144435498, "reductionPct": 1.6441709386743053, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.312074804544611, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2766001187746105, "afterRecentDefense": 1.312074804544611, "afterRecentZones": 1.312074804544611, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.312074804544611, "adjusted": 1.2766001187746105, "playerFactor": 0.9729629090909091, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0870520576160443, "newChartFactor": 1.0870520576160443, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8108091603053434, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1912634322115694, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.273277144435498, "adjustedSOG": 1.247811601546788, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19130434782608696, "goalHistoryGoals": 22, "goalHistoryShots": 115, "goalExpected": 0.22108436084758334, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22108436084758334, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1983509503557463, "goalProbability": 0.1983509503557463, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857281785149102, "modelSOG": 1.247811601546788, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 215.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13953488372093023, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13605486280999712, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.71826090576091, "btb": { "id": "8480448", "name": "Parker Kelly", "score": 48.71826090576091, "components": { "Goal model": 60.22727272727273, "SOG model": 44.88636363636363, "Unit attack": 69.23076923076923, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.863636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 34.12698412698413, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7411101168110537, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 88 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": 2.9017352538681394, "index": 102.90173525386814, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.848484848484848, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.121212121212118, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.636363636363635, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.9017352538681394, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480448", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020682", "date": "20240116" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.150686938263466, "trialBefore6040": 1.150686938263466, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.150686938263466, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2545454545454544, "attemptProjection": 1.3696041545437672, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7242.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.972727272727273, "projectedAttempts": 2.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.46828227796052635, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01190112116709442, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.312074804544611, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.312074804544611, "baseline": 1.2682926829268293, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 98, "beforeSOG": 1.247811601546788, "adjustedSOG": 1.247811601546788 } }, { "id": "8480800", "name": "Quinn Hughes", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.8333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.527027027027027, "currentTOI": 27.03333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 22.469444444444445, "ppShare": 0.8044619422572179, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 34, "currentPPTOI": 3.4055555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.198, "currentIXG": 0.18316666666666667, "priorTOI": 27.737612612612615, "priorPPTOI": 3.7898648648648647, "deploymentChange": -0.7042792792792838, "ppTOIChange": -0.3843093093093093, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.8 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.059869576816788395, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 414.0, "goalExpected": 0.15461737543883514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15461737543883514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14325707433667373, "goalProbability": 0.14325707433667373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.582570040740257, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.563110396835208, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.809135399673735, "Current_5v5_Min": 22.469444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8044619422572179, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.649687408865559, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9860699137505905, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2452, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.738664668597234, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.129791406667856, "Prior_5v5_Min": 22.243693693693693, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.718291734471094, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0554223470576145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.185223558237561, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9417379382502328, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0829986289877676, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.563110396835208, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.809135399673735, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.8455784793050567, "adjustedSOG": 2.8336296255653464, "reductionPct": 0.41990947804146916, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.305610885512321, "afterPlayerForm": 2.296806592796989, "afterRecentDefense": 2.305610885512321, "afterRecentZones": 2.30334816426287, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.30334816426287, "adjusted": 2.294552512060271, "playerFactor": 0.9961813622712076, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.185223558237561, "newChartFactor": 1.1829848127511688, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 108.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9802040186833524, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2188668790691233, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5023352286447553, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5023352286447553, "afterRecentDefense": 0.49467828803214575, "afterRecentZones": 0.5011172207588603, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4934788458639552, "adjusted": 0.4934788458639552, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 0.9417379382502328, "newChartFactor": 0.9377847768037086, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.783333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.377141252457175, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.8336296255653464, "adjustedSOG": 2.7769570330540394, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06032180162089553, "goalHistoryGoals": 25, "goalHistoryShots": 410, "goalExpected": 0.19573028135719706, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19573028135719706, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17776602339488712, "goalProbability": 0.17776602339488712, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057729624838292366, "modelSOG": 2.582570040740257, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 74, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 414.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06038647342995169, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.059869576816788395, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.44608751246387, "btb": { "id": "8480800", "name": "Quinn Hughes", "score": 60.44608751246387, "components": { "Goal model": 57.95454545454545, "SOG model": 93.75, "Unit attack": 86.20689655172414, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 67.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 63.06818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.19762845849802, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0283046010054333, "unitPlayers": [ "Quinn Hughes", "Jared Spurgeon" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 38 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 38, "priorAttempts": 191, "fitPct": 6.1741186079187, "index": 106.1741186079187, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.88867456599614, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.346376412234775, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.991182143841279, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.84844309727198, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.297051529346927, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6282722513089006, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": -1.9420687249922395, "index": 98.05793127500776, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 79.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.1741186079187, "zonePPFit": -1.9420687249922395, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480800", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020537", "date": "20241221" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.210858607104173, "trialBefore6040": 3.210858607104173, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.210858607104173, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.2261507581346036, "attemptProjection": 2.889741470179549, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 56.0, "sog": 25.0, "seconds": 16178.0, "expectedMinutes": 22.469444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 4.666666666666667, "onNet": 0.42435739677331147, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2452.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.649687408865559, "projectedAttempts": 0.8037647637795278, "onNet": 0.4572374829534385, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.305610885512321, "ppAdjusted": 0.5023352286447553, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.057946114157076, "baseline": 2.527027027027027, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 12, "beforeSOG": 2.7769570330540394, "adjustedSOG": 2.582570040740257 } }, { "id": "8480801", "name": "Brady Tkachuk", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 3.683333333333333, "currentTOI": 16.71818181818182, "currentFiveTOI": 11.274242424242424, "ppShare": 0.6124046981248712, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 38, "currentPPTOI": 4.503030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.877999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.4434545454545454, "priorTOI": 16.96027777777778, "priorPPTOI": 3.1666666666666665, "deploymentChange": -0.24209595959596086, "ppTOIChange": 1.3363636363636364, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020551", "date": "20251220", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 10, "goals": 2, "attempts": 16, "toi": 19.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020984", "date": "20250305", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.6 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10820033113109516, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 555.0, "goalExpected": 0.34552102700723575, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34552102700723575, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29214855235013815, "goalProbability": 0.29214855235013815, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 3.1933453751505034, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.676118801236393, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.95827725437416, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.274242424242424, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6124046981248712, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6222810008179884, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 1.0349871316563095, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2972, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 11.538968166849616, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.842105263157896, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.652777777777777, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6409254337970923, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2096587540219905, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0173060277343984, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0462802321161306, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.676118801236393, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.95827725437416, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 10 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020551", "date": "20251220", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 10, "goals": 2, "attempts": 16, "toi": 19.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020984", "date": "20250305", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11067193675889328, "goalHistoryGoals": 28, "goalHistoryShots": 253, "goalExpected": 0.4045995649946317, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4045995649946317, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3327560547972872, "goalProbability": 0.3327560547972872, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12871216890867332, "modelSOG": 3.1933453751505034, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 555.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1045045045045045, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10820033113109516, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.534677225827684, "adjustedSOG": 3.5037803106764356, "reductionPct": 0.8741085303485829, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.112757564008348, "afterPlayerForm": 2.112757564008348, "afterRecentDefense": 2.112757564008348, "afterRecentZones": 2.112757564008348, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.112757564008348, "adjusted": 2.112757564008348, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2096587540219905, "newChartFactor": 1.2096587540219905, "playerRecentAttempts": 27.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.083333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.333158593231586, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1587167116210157, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.95917922651254, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9181288874927935, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9493111946676409, "afterRecentZones": 0.9581249084416854, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9482677234166613, "adjusted": 0.9076843679271248, "playerFactor": 0.9572026396265894, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.0173060277343984, "newChartFactor": 1.0153034350525338, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7364456338586579, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.5037803106764356, "adjustedSOG": 3.4337047044629068, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 73.51117013230858, "btb": { "id": "8480801", "name": "Brady Tkachuk", "score": 73.51117013230858, "components": { "Goal model": 93.75, "SOG model": 97.1590909090909, "Unit attack": 97.43589743589743, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 72.36842105263159, "Shot quality": 95.45454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.84886128364389, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8447996322157705, "unitPlayers": [ "Brady Tkachuk", "Sam Bennett", "Matthew Tkachuk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 3 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 35, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": 6.988625134066353, "index": 106.98862513406635, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.945965951147297, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.410806809770541, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.656550703182823, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.410806809770541, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.774981495188747, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.8008882309400445, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": 0.576867591146609, "index": 100.57686759114661, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.747747747747748, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.73873873873874, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.61261261261261, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.9009009009009, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.988625134066353, "zonePPFit": 0.576867591146609, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480801", "goals": 2, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020128", "date": "20221029" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021021291", "date": "20220428" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020440", "date": "20211214" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.4537566593512, "trialBefore6040": 3.4537566593512, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.4537566593512, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.525720974502919, "attemptProjection": 3.345425333811584, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 7441.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.274242424242424, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.47643666732948897, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 2972.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6222810008179884, "projectedAttempts": 1.3894348388063615, "onNet": 0.612298370588717, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.112757564008348, "ppAdjusted": 0.95917922651254, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.435573154157251, "baseline": 3.683333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 6, "beforeSOG": 3.4337047044629068, "adjustedSOG": 3.1933453751505034 } }, { "id": "8480835", "name": "Jack Drury", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.2073170731707317, "currentTOI": 16.52166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.528333333333332, "ppShare": 0.0076362374175633465, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.03666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.9850000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.19850000000000004, "priorTOI": 14.478658536585366, "priorPPTOI": 0.1953252032520325, "deploymentChange": 2.0430081300813026, "ppTOIChange": -0.15865853658536583, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020415", "date": "20241205", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020233", "date": "20241109", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10482156432877777, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.1218994569196666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1218994569196666, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11476263147975857, "goalProbability": 0.11476263147975857, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1629234661803292, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.991622520635703, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.528333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0076362374175633465, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.035028925141733204, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0151429547304047, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.183102408618178, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.492195629552549, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.99959349593496, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03565687361419068, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07204919882645, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0090301715879313, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0817299870425572, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.991622520635703, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020415", "date": "20241205", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020233", "date": "20241109", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ross Colton", "Jack Drury", "Adam Edstrom" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1629234661803292, "adjustedSOG": 1.1629234661803292, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8333277281867277, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8333277281867277, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8333277281867277, "afterRecentZones": 0.8333277281867277, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8333277281867277, "adjusted": 0.8333277281867277, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0090301715879313, "newChartFactor": 1.0090301715879313, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.91666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0973155658555427, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0796753277044362, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.18333333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1629234661803292, "adjustedSOG": 1.1629234661803292, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1058332794278265, "goalHistoryGoals": 19, "goalHistoryShots": 201, "goalExpected": 0.12436967782345683, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12436967782345683, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1169466646994574, "goalProbability": 0.1169466646994574, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865755555948444, "modelSOG": 1.1629234661803292, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 204.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09313725490196079, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10482156432877777, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.40555640012162, "btb": { "id": "8480835", "name": "Jack Drury", "score": 47.40555640012162, "components": { "Goal model": 42.61363636363637, "SOG model": 38.63636363636363, "Unit attack": 15.384615384615385, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 69.88636363636364, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.15942028985507, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9676000212745277, "unitPlayers": [ "Ross Colton", "Jack Drury", "Adam Edstrom" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 97 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 135, "fitPct": 0.30100571959771116, "index": 100.30100571959771, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.289562289562287, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.464646464646464, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.410774410774412, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.454545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.851851851851852, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.528619528619529, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.30100571959771116, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480835", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020415", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020487", "date": "20221217" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2506331296981004, "trialBefore6040": 1.2506331296981004, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2506331296981004, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2735569883383016, "attemptProjection": 0.9930984680351538, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8117.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.528333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 1.2, "onNet": 0.5558481005942276, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.035028925141733204, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8333277281867277, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1333277281867278, "baseline": 1.2073170731707317, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 109, "beforeSOG": 1.1629234661803292, "adjustedSOG": 1.1629234661803292 } }, { "id": "8480840", "name": "Oskar Bck", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": 11.340476190476192, "currentFiveTOI": 8.726190476190476, "ppShare": 0.0005662514156285391, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0.0023809523809523807, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.251, "currentIXG": 0.03585714285714286, "priorTOI": 12.358796296296298, "priorPPTOI": 0.019212962962962963, "deploymentChange": -1.0183201058201057, "ppTOIChange": -0.016832010582010584, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11506123215417825, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 90.0, "goalExpected": 0.06691096635231714, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06691096635231714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0647215311164012, "goalProbability": 0.0647215311164012, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5815248550672449, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9645293315143246, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.726190476190476, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0005662514156285391, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.002952529256323141, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0169073928345027, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1766, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8410277835805307, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.972916666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003977571313423736, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0288182831661092, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9434090029027389, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9705964306898468, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.9645293315143246, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10869565217391304, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 46, "goalExpected": 0.06402339616042135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06402339616042135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.062016945927994824, "goalProbability": 0.062016945927994824, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861634109293865, "modelSOG": 0.5815248550672449, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 72, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 90.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11506123215417825, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.586452326890856, "adjustedSOG": 0.5815248550672449, "reductionPct": 0.8402169447829899, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.30281737021491884, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2953283899990024, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30281737021491884, "afterRecentZones": 0.30207555146252796, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.30207555146252796, "adjusted": 0.294604917175567, "playerFactor": 0.9752689873417721, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9434090029027389, "newChartFactor": 0.9383617255052614, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.333333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8084558823529412, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.153661624575198, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.016666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5815248550672449, "adjustedSOG": 0.5815248550672449, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": -1.8863665699087022, "index": 98.1136334300913, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.48148148148148, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.222222222222214, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.962962962962965, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8863665699087022, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480840", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.563026215360843, "trialBefore6040": 0.563026215360843, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.563026215360843, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5630275516256704, "attemptProjection": 0.6140357602327386, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3665.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.726190476190476, "projectedAttempts": 0.7142857142857143, "onNet": 0.48700084961767204, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.002952529256323141, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.30281737021491884, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2857142857142857 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5885316559292045, "baseline": 0.5833333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5815248550672449, "adjustedSOG": 0.5815248550672449 } }, { "id": "8480865", "name": "Noah Dobson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 1.975, "currentTOI": 21.4, "currentFiveTOI": 16.328333333333333, "ppShare": 0.2812623274161736, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 23, "currentPPTOI": 1.1883333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.741, "currentIXG": 0.1741, "priorTOI": 22.48375, "priorPPTOI": 1.3641666666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.083750000000002, "ppTOIChange": -0.1758333333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020978", "date": "20250304", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05822842080177489, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 377.0, "goalExpected": 0.12194387538573144, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12194387538573144, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11480195149249774, "goalProbability": 0.11480195149249774, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.0942329142131637, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.349188527100132, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.328333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2812623274161736, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1977087442472056, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.97785277367644, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.194868662186927, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.77875, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2871315508021391, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1185959001053605, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.349188527100132, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020978", "date": "20250304", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Noah Dobson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.304316949004004, "adjustedSOG": 2.2978197434860252, "reductionPct": 0.28195797981640514, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1785198289938483, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1785198289938483, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1785198289938483, "afterRecentZones": 2.171420877947735, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.171420877947735, "adjusted": 2.171420877947735, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1185959001053605, "newChartFactor": 1.1116908065964637, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.081346578366446, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.04534175267949148, "afterPlayerForm": 0.041612027862307506, "afterRecentDefense": 0.04534175267949148, "afterRecentZones": 0.04534175267949148, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.04534175267949148, "adjusted": 0.041612027862307506, "playerFactor": 0.917741935483871, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2978197434860252, "adjustedSOG": 2.251863348616305, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0670391061452514, "goalHistoryGoals": 12, "goalHistoryShots": 179, "goalExpected": 0.14152316647049565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14152316647049565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13196493395678757, "goalProbability": 0.13196493395678757, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057749567224466246, "modelSOG": 2.0942329142131637, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 377.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058355437665782495, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05822842080177489, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.87832138961016, "btb": { "id": "8480865", "name": "Noah Dobson", "score": 51.87832138961016, "components": { "Goal model": 43.18181818181818, "SOG model": 82.38636363636364, "Unit attack": 75.86206896551724, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 59.09090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.90157668418538, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.890452083965834, "unitPlayers": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Noah Dobson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 69 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 182, "fitPct": 3.9531966701786843, "index": 103.95319667017868, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.37327188940093, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 104 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.91350584898972, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.57284650833038, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.258419000354484, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.408011343495215, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.4739454094292808, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": 13.24633035622908, "index": 113.24633035622908, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 91.51515151515152, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.9531966701786843, "zonePPFit": 13.24633035622908, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480865", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020249", "date": "20241112" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020227", "date": "20231113" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.419005379384767, "trialBefore6040": 2.419005379384767, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.419005379384767, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.599999999999999, "attemptProjection": 2.44772316334668, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 9797.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.328333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 4.5, "onNet": 0.4208619374523265, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 713.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1977087442472056, "projectedAttempts": 0.20157790927021693, "onNet": 0.40340406719717065, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1785198289938483, "ppAdjusted": 0.04534175267949148, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.52386158167334, "baseline": 1.975, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 27, "beforeSOG": 2.251863348616305, "adjustedSOG": 2.0942329142131637 } }, { "id": "8480878", "name": "Nils Lundkvist", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.8846153846153846, "currentTOI": 17.173333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 16.09, "ppShare": 0.005826656955571741, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.026666666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49600000000000005, "currentIXG": 0.049600000000000005, "priorTOI": 16.481410256410257, "priorPPTOI": 0.11089743589743589, "deploymentChange": 0.6919230769230751, "ppTOIChange": -0.08423076923076922, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.916666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04263417771470973, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.03431669454465839, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03431669454465839, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03373455481879619, "goalProbability": 0.03373455481879619, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.804910435338791, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.983219390926041, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.09, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005826656955571741, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03038116047584365, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2001939511485546, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.864423076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.022958585857278058, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9045154773846521, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.983219390926041, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.916666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05660377358490566, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 53, "goalExpected": 0.05344506367441623, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05344506367441623, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05204198309638288, "goalProbability": 0.05204198309638288, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057826406092302045, "modelSOG": 0.804910435338791, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 52, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 106.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02830188679245283, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04263417771470973, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8356695736299258, "adjustedSOG": 0.804910435338791, "reductionPct": 3.6807775778559537, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8030390329729531, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7786148190351817, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7753560458972809, "afterRecentZones": 0.8030390329729531, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.775356045897281, "adjusted": 0.7517738024877287, "playerFactor": 0.96958527178019, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.9045154773846521, "newChartFactor": 0.9045154773846521, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8223104978279555, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.804910435338791, "adjustedSOG": 0.804910435338791, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 34.02312642380109, "btb": { "id": "8480878", "name": "Nils Lundkvist", "score": 34.02312642380109, "components": { "Goal model": 5.681818181818182, "SOG model": 13.636363636363637, "Unit attack": 31.03448275862069, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.772727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.82815734989648, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0626347448292455, "unitPlayers": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 170 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -3.182817420511597, "index": 96.8171825794884, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.92253521126761, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.626760563380282, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.633802816901408, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6901408450704227, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.182817420511597, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480878", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.752417726039836, "trialBefore6040": 0.752417726039836, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.752417726039836, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.68, "attemptProjection": 0.926078065945906, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 9654.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.09, "projectedAttempts": 2.6999999999999997, "onNet": 0.3634010916619612, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 16.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03038116047584365, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8030390329729531, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8030390329729531, "baseline": 0.8846153846153846, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 153, "beforeSOG": 0.804910435338791, "adjustedSOG": 0.804910435338791 } }, { "id": "8480950", "name": "Ilya Lyubushkin", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.183333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.783333333333333, "ppShare": 0.03333333333333333, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0, "currentIXG": 0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021209", "date": "20260404", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020984", "date": "20260306", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020034", "date": "20251011", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021067", "date": "20250316", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21 }, { "gameId": "2024020724", "date": "20250118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04229356847093441, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 84.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03333333333333333, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.15290656565656568, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9918906336040819, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 120, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9772131912297699, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9772131912297699, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021209", "date": "20260404", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020984", "date": "20260306", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020034", "date": "20251011", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021067", "date": "20250316", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21 }, { "gameId": "2024020724", "date": "20250118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020373", "date": "20241129", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 16.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057820165986519324, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 53, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 84.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.023809523809523808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04229356847093441, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1558877037776905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480950", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024021067", "date": "20250316" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020724", "date": "20250118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020017", "date": "20241010" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021021133", "date": "20220407" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020917", "date": "20220310" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0, "trialBefore6040": 0, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 887.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.783333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.39963768115942033, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.15290656565656568, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 } }, { "id": "8481014", "name": "Alexander Romanov", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.1333333333333333, "currentTOI": 16.566666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.194444444444445, "ppShare": 0.01102629346904156, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 15, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0.07222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.11, "currentIXG": 0.03666666666666667, "priorTOI": 19.445555555555554, "priorPPTOI": 0.1522222222222222, "deploymentChange": -2.8788888888888877, "ppTOIChange": -0.07999999999999997, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04446456210028327, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.035737468751514796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.035737468751514796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03510642505059467, "goalProbability": 0.03510642505059467, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.803729241073244, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.5473684210526315, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.194444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01102629346904156, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06265691263782867, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1179, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.129276027258619, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.46777777777778, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.033210942996848604, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5473684210526315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 20, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782203662062319, "modelSOG": 0.803729241073244, "historyGames": 82, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 15, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 120.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04446456210028327, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8204600031400653, "adjustedSOG": 0.8201318786461673, "reductionPct": 0.03999274707385814, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6118777830112199, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6118777830112199, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6113309088547232, "afterRecentZones": 0.6118777830112199, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6113309088547232, "adjusted": 0.6113309088547232, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 39.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.21666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8201318786461673, "adjustedSOG": 0.803729241073244, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -8.460363935559073, "index": 91.53963606444093, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.199999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.460363935559073, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481014", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020284", "date": "20221119" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020969", "date": "20220317" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020697", "date": "20220118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8854488038517859, "trialBefore6040": 0.8854488038517859, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8854488038517859, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.85, "attemptProjection": 0.3737555660224397, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2375.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.194444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.4336204539239814, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.06265691263782867, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6118777830112199, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6118777830112199, "baseline": 1.1333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.803729241073244, "adjustedSOG": 0.803729241073244 } }, { "id": "8481024", "name": "Linus Karlsson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.4683544303797469, "currentTOI": 14.240277777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 12.258333333333333, "ppShare": 0.30342249065286164, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 21, "currentPPTOI": 1.4652777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.111, "currentIXG": 0.1759166666666667, "priorTOI": 12.514135021097047, "priorPPTOI": 1.2744725738396625, "deploymentChange": 1.72614275668073, "ppTOIChange": 0.19080520393811518, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 9.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3333333333333335, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12777190221379356, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.19380590313752702, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19807762200384624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17618221080037377, "goalProbability": 0.17969382314269236, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35116123423185874, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5168115976957317, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.341944255608429, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.8246445497630335, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.258333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30342249065286164, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 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Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.6056002207385225, "trialBefore6040": 1.6056002207385225, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.6056002207385225, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.541865087666791, "attemptProjection": 1.556367664145986, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8826.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.258333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.5436531003548469, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1055.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.604978549515866, "projectedAttempts": 0.5476704055220016, "onNet": 0.48929091287169885, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.243467690771423, "ppAdjusted": 0.22231535180163214, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5491163759063884, "baseline": 1.4683544303797469, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 71, "beforeSOG": 1.5168115976957317, "adjustedSOG": 1.5168115976957317 } }, { "id": "8481030", "name": "Jack St. Ivany", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 0.85, "currentTOI": 13.520833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.454166666666667, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 20, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.051000000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.012750000000000001, "priorTOI": 16.325833333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.004166666666666667, "deploymentChange": -2.804999999999998, "ppTOIChange": -0.004166666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020566", "date": "20251221", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020180", "date": "20241102", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0444572829625037, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.026608157477570088, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026608157477570088, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02625727941657146, "goalProbability": 0.02625727941657146, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5985106534740781, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.1148962527098172, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.454166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9930633444909833, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 683, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8230549487481094, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.877500000000001, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0009458686303822234, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9451394122079879, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8250435670870538, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.1148962527098172, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020566", "date": "20251221", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020180", "date": "20241102", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 18, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779446785125481, "modelSOG": 0.5985106534740781, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 19, "2025": 20, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0444572829625037, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6037900128140512, "adjustedSOG": 0.5985106534740781, "reductionPct": 0.8743701001889592, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.439650021356752, "afterPlayerForm": 0.439650021356752, "afterRecentDefense": 0.43085108912346337, "afterRecentZones": 0.439650021356752, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.43085108912346337, "adjusted": 0.43085108912346337, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9736084832943864, "oldChartFactor": 0.8250435670870538, "newChartFactor": 0.8250435670870538, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8755431505233076, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5985106534740781, "adjustedSOG": 0.5985106534740781, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": -5.831881097098204, "index": 94.1681189029018, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.831881097098204, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481030", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.2382169197649052, "trialBefore6040": 0.2382169197649052, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.2382169197649052, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2125, "attemptProjection": 0.666800042713504, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 3229.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.454166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.36175662168915546, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.439650021356752, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.439650021356752, "baseline": 0.85, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 20, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5985106534740781, "adjustedSOG": 0.5985106534740781 } }, { "id": "8481032", "name": "Paul Cotter", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.7721518987341772, "currentTOI": 15.012500000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 13.104166666666666, "ppShare": 0.17141213689962612, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0.8277777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3719999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11433333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.677848101265822, "priorPPTOI": 0.15063291139240506, "deploymentChange": 4.3346518987341796, "ppTOIChange": 0.6771448663853727, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020721", "date": "20260112", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020108", "date": "20251022", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021178", "date": "20250331", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.3 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16096891020543003, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.12599193786905777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12876895409656378, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11837804549359691, "goalProbability": 0.12082292765785729, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24448821642603785, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7827097649370036, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.289348171701113, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.104166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.17141213689962612, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9066987824753139, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 0.9728135835273635, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 596, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.023000182863645, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.084033613445378, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.383333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.038837970676894325, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8627242322894497, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9159438292964931, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.980018136797519, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9771585070004428, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.289348171701113, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020721", "date": "20260112", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020108", "date": "20251022", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021178", "date": "20250331", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021162", "date": "20250329", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Linus Karlsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.18571428571428572, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 70, "goalExpected": 0.17153059385560826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17153059385560826, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15762550385790738, "goalProbability": 0.15762550385790738, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851916653411802, "modelSOG": 0.7827097649370036, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16096891020543003, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7959734247174244, "adjustedSOG": 0.7827097649370036, "reductionPct": 1.6663445497730578, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5505659063197982, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5365754286910313, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5427169514278088, "afterRecentZones": 0.5505659063197982, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5427169514278088, "adjusted": 0.5289259242673058, "playerFactor": 0.9745889139371436, "defenseFactor": 0.9767827670721562, "oldChartFactor": 0.9159438292964931, "newChartFactor": 0.9159438292964931, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8379218472468917, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8899434016563809, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0946218690531245, "afterPlayerForm": 0.09415575147158202, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0946218690531245, "afterRecentZones": 0.0946218690531245, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0946218690531245, "adjusted": 0.09415575147158202, "playerFactor": 0.9950738916256158, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.980018136797519, "newChartFactor": 0.980018136797519, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9371069182389938, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7827097649370036, "adjustedSOG": 0.7827097649370036, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 38.09078743393471, "btb": { "id": "8481032", "name": "Paul Cotter", "score": 38.09078743393471, "components": { "Goal model": 47.15909090909091, "SOG model": 10.795454545454545, "Unit attack": 5.128205128205129, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.63157894736842, "Shot quality": 30.113636363636363, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 62.6885536823425, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8717051162642075, "unitPlayers": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Linus Karlsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 151 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": -2.801872356783562, "index": 97.19812764321644, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.165885660731021, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.54920337394564, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.75445173383318, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.373945641986875, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.360824742268042, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.795688847235239, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -0.6660621067493651, "index": 99.33393789325063, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 60, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.801872356783562, "zonePPFit": -0.6660621067493651, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481032", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020078", "date": "20251018" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7147616404861264, "trialBefore6040": 0.7147616404861264, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7147616404861264, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6808601326313676, "attemptProjection": 0.942848751447811, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9435.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.104166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4397863818424566, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 596.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9066987824753139, "projectedAttempts": 0.18255680184066722, "onNet": 0.5624728378965668, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5505659063197982, "ppAdjusted": 0.0946218690531245, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8118544420395892, "baseline": 0.7721518987341772, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 158, "beforeSOG": 0.7827097649370036, "adjustedSOG": 0.7827097649370036 } }, { "id": "8481043", "name": "Cole Koepke", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 1.303030303030303, "currentTOI": 9.726190476190476, "currentFiveTOI": 8.564285714285715, "ppShare": 0.009797517962116264, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.03571428571428571, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.69, "currentIXG": 0.09857142857142856, "priorTOI": 10.458585858585858, "priorPPTOI": 0.00808080808080808, "deploymentChange": -0.7323953823953815, "ppTOIChange": 0.02763347763347763, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 7.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 8.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021197", "date": "20250403", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020389", "date": "20241201", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 11.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020011", "date": "20241010", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 7.333333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11420398870210806, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.13535651035619253, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13535651035619253, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12659552156496398, "goalProbability": 0.12659552156496398, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1852170129474122, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.006672226855713, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.564285714285715, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009797517962116264, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05283311561071195, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 1.0217826805282162, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1531, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.6936776491540515, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.507575757575758, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017706706226039597, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0534211860111506, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.964953452014952, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0165024098671447, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.006672226855713, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 7.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 8.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021197", "date": "20250403", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020389", "date": "20241201", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 11.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020011", "date": "20241010", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 7.333333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nino Niederreiter", "Morgan Barron", "Cole Koepke" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09574468085106383, "goalHistoryGoals": 9, "goalHistoryShots": 94, "goalExpected": 0.10804474557097966, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10804474557097966, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10241256753030813, "goalProbability": 0.10241256753030813, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862912847888144, "modelSOG": 1.1852170129474122, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 66, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10614525139664804, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11420398870210806, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1852170129474122, "adjustedSOG": 1.1852170129474122, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1066748195588185, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1066748195588185, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1066748195588185, "afterRecentZones": 1.1066748195588185, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1066748195588185, "adjusted": 1.1066748195588185, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.964953452014952, "newChartFactor": 0.964953452014952, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 40.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0114263803680983, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0742240962189813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1852170129474122, "adjustedSOG": 1.1852170129474122, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 45.594717782217785, "btb": { "id": "8481043", "name": "Cole Koepke", "score": 45.594717782217785, "components": { "Goal model": 50.56818181818182, "SOG model": 39.20454545454545, "Unit attack": 7.6923076923076925, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 34.65909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.904761904761905, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9071628967013199, "unitPlayers": [ "Nino Niederreiter", "Morgan Barron", "Cole Koepke" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 111 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": -1.1682182661682674, "index": 98.83178173383173, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.469301340860975, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.001411432604094, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.553987297106566, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.570218772053636, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.570218772053636, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.834862385321101, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.1682182661682674, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481043", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1204852099595684, "trialBefore6040": 1.1204852099595684, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1204852099595684, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1617170398481653, "attemptProjection": 1.051632599269472, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.564285714285715, "projectedAttempts": 2.2857142857142856, "onNet": 0.4992211352732258, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05283311561071195, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1066748195588185, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1066748195588185, "baseline": 1.303030303030303, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 108, "beforeSOG": 1.1852170129474122, "adjustedSOG": 1.1852170129474122 } }, { "id": "8481133", "name": "Cole Reinhardt", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.05, "currentFiveTOI": 9.05, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 0, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0, "currentIXG": 0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020419", "date": "20251202", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 7.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14109612154886914, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 1.0349871316563095, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 398, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020419", "date": "20251202", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 7.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857571690916797, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 77, "seasonGames": { "2024": 17, "2025": 59, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 62.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16129032258064516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14109612154886914, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1587167116210157, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "performanceAdjustment": null, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481133", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0, "trialBefore6040": 0, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 543.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.05, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49570093457943926, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 } }, { "id": "8481186", "name": "Logan O'Connor", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 3, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.783333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.6, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.492, "currentIXG": 0.492, "priorTOI": 11.444871794871794, "priorPPTOI": 0.001282051282051282, "deploymentChange": 3.338461538461539, "ppTOIChange": -0.001282051282051282, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11152416997536224, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.22943323566524537, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22943323566524537, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20501595655312976, "goalProbability": 0.20501595655312976, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.0572512282846978, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.6, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9966886859648443, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 283, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0352762290927522, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1405654196953328, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1010490885996873, "adjustedSOG": 2.0992359472292836, "reductionPct": 0.08629695423308936, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.8350818143328125, "afterPlayerForm": 2.8350818143328125, "afterRecentDefense": 2.8320599120488055, "afterRecentZones": 2.8350818143328125, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.832059912048806, "adjusted": 2.832059912048806, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9989341040287694, "oldChartFactor": 1.1405654196953328, "newChartFactor": 1.1405654196953328, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9950752922127964, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0992359472292836, "adjustedSOG": 2.0572512282846978, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286245484494926, "modelSOG": 2.0572512282846978, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 13, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 105.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09523809523809523, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11152416997536224, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 59.536839325271, "btb": { "id": "8481186", "name": "Logan O'Connor", "score": 59.536839325271, "components": { "Goal model": 76.13636363636364, "SOG model": 81.25, "Unit attack": 69.23076923076923, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 77.27272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.3114463176575, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7411101168110537, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 44 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": 4.685513989844424, "index": 104.68551398984442, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.685513989844424, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481186", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.126408319512686, "trialBefore6040": 3.126408319512686, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.126408319512686, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.4499999999999997, "attemptProjection": 2.2201636286656248, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 636.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.6, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.51756657274135, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.8350818143328125, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.8350818143328125, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 36, "beforeSOG": 2.0572512282846978, "adjustedSOG": 2.0572512282846978 } }, { "id": "8481237", "name": "Kyle MacLean", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7288135593220338, "currentTOI": 8.991666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.933333333333334, "ppShare": 0.013409961685823755, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0.058333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.208, "currentIXG": 0.104, "priorTOI": 10.519491525423728, "priorPPTOI": 0.03474576271186441, "deploymentChange": -1.5278248587570609, "ppTOIChange": 0.023587570621468927, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 8.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0920292085778278, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.0552575309084812, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0552575309084812, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053758569842752825, "goalProbability": 0.053758569842752825, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6004347072239645, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3582089552238807, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.933333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013409961685823755, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0762021072796935, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.048163338808703, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 522, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3582089552238807, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 8.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle MacLean", "Casey Cizikas", "Mitchell Chaffee" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.045454545454545456, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 44, "goalExpected": 0.03329269613751105, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03329269613751105, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03274459376928405, "goalProbability": 0.03274459376928405, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865987758454703, "modelSOG": 0.6004347072239645, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 59, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 105.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0920292085778278, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6126884767591475, "adjustedSOG": 0.6126884767591475, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5352717550505566, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5352717550505566, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5352717550505566, "afterRecentZones": 0.5352717550505566, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5352717550505566, "adjusted": 0.5352717550505566, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1835688332660474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.11666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6126884767591475, "adjustedSOG": 0.6004347072239645, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 41.963299381777645, "btb": { "id": "8481237", "name": "Kyle MacLean", "score": 41.963299381777645, "components": { "Goal model": 17.045454545454547, "SOG model": 3.409090909090909, "Unit attack": 51.282051282051285, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 54.54545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.006688963210706, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.393148694985664, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle MacLean", "Casey Cizikas", "Mitchell Chaffee" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 134 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": -10.141626652990212, "index": 89.85837334700979, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.733333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.400000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.86666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -10.141626652990212, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481237", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.463644494246792, "trialBefore6040": 0.463644494246792, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.463644494246792, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4250000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.645543510101113, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1072.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.933333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.49929400446871897, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0762021072796935, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5352717550505566, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5352717550505566, "baseline": 0.7288135593220338, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 171, "beforeSOG": 0.6004347072239645, "adjustedSOG": 0.6004347072239645 } }, { "id": "8481477", "name": "Nico Sturm", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7551020408163265, "currentTOI": 10.083333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 7.7444444444444445, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.366, "currentIXG": 0.061, "priorTOI": 10.942176870748298, "priorPPTOI": 0.015306122448979591, "deploymentChange": -0.8588435374149643, "ppTOIChange": -0.015306122448979591, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020555", "date": "20241223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 6.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020184", "date": "20241102", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12492465773274508, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.0803326136287312, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0803326136287312, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0771906436337144, "goalProbability": 0.0771906436337144, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6430484988847364, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.582496413199426, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.7444444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9795287364370838, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1331, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.927765237020316, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.040816326530612, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0029009639219145407, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.582496413199426, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020555", "date": "20241223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 6.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020184", "date": "20241102", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6566873039531598, "adjustedSOG": 0.656171937637486, "reductionPct": 0.07847971364320916, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4244108127110485, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4235518688515924, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4244108127110485, "afterRecentZones": 0.4244108127110485, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4244108127110485, "adjusted": 0.4235518688515924, "playerFactor": 0.9979761499148211, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 37.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9825550660792952, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.656171937637486, "adjustedSOG": 0.6430484988847364, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1255063269880198, "goalHistoryGoals": 12, "goalHistoryShots": 98, "goalExpected": 0.06495430458194038, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06495430458194038, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06288971595476076, "goalProbability": 0.06288971595476076, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860006888816272, "modelSOG": 0.6430484988847364, "historyGames": 117, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 49, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 99.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12121212121212122, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12492465773274508, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.38187989546685, "btb": { "id": "8481477", "name": "Nico Sturm", "score": 42.38187989546685, "components": { "Goal model": 28.40909090909091, "SOG model": 5.113636363636363, "Unit attack": 48.717948717948715, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 25.568181818181817, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 60.10511227902532, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3547524746849784, "unitPlayers": [ "Nico Sturm", "Ryan Hartman", "Tyler Pitlick" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 129 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 11.374144686322552, "index": 111.37414468632255, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.799999999999997, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.374144686322552, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481477", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5406846900863133, "trialBefore6040": 0.5406846900863133, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5406846900863133, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5499999999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.6321549587554304, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2788.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.7444444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 0.8333333333333334, "onNet": 0.49931967703349284, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4244108127110485, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5910774793777152, "baseline": 0.7551020408163265, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 49, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 168, "beforeSOG": 0.6430484988847364, "adjustedSOG": 0.6430484988847364 } }, { "id": "8481523", "name": "Kirby Dach", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.2702702702702702, "currentTOI": 9.99, "currentFiveTOI": 9.011666666666667, "ppShare": 0.10453648915187377, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.4416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.703, "currentIXG": 0.0703, "priorTOI": 13.657207207207207, "priorPPTOI": 1.3572072072072072, "deploymentChange": -3.6672072072072073, "ppTOIChange": -0.9155405405405406, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13075809236307334, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.12105392622365939, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12105392622365939, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11401381958431235, "goalProbability": 0.11401381958431235, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9257853493880241, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.329017939707786, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.011666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.10453648915187377, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.44515121630506244, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 0.9764003632370333, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 265, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.07378524295141, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.3896448722203782, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.014414414414414, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2856667148431855, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787068004459308, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.094380257979177, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.329017939707786, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Owen Beck" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9450085250008426, "adjustedSOG": 0.9446789279469634, "reductionPct": 0.03487768048219264, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7001777704044981, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7001777704044981, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7001777704044981, "afterRecentZones": 0.7001777704044981, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7001777704044981, "adjusted": 0.7001777704044981, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.094380257979177, "newChartFactor": 1.094380257979177, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 48.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2139649753030983, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1365130016905047, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.02798959108339278, "afterPlayerForm": 0.027440262660260773, "afterRecentDefense": 0.02798959108339278, "afterRecentZones": 0.02798959108339278, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.02798959108339278, "adjusted": 0.027440262660260773, "playerFactor": 0.9803738317757009, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9446789279469634, "adjustedSOG": 0.9257853493880241, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1568627450980392, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 51, "goalExpected": 0.1751809309103784, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1751809309103784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16069484921438246, "goalProbability": 0.16069484921438246, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858909797685308, "modelSOG": 0.9257853493880241, "historyGames": 104, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 37, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 136.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1323529411764706, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13075809236307334, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.36549410734194, "btb": { "id": "8481523", "name": "Kirby Dach", "score": 44.36549410734194, "components": { "Goal model": 42.04545454545455, "SOG model": 22.15909090909091, "Unit attack": 64.1025641025641, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 20.454545454545453, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.618251313903485, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.616337889834962, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Owen Beck" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 120 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": 3.146008599305901, "index": 103.1460085993059, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.380281690140844, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.197183098591552, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.52112676056338, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.943661971830986, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.887323943661972, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.070422535211268, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.146008599305901, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481523", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020269", "date": "20211120" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.514285016188529, "trialBefore6040": 0.514285016188529, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.514285016188529, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 0.8813347229757819, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5407.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.011666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.7, "onNet": 0.4469939541497448, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 265.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.44515121630506244, "projectedAttempts": 0.10078895463510848, "onNet": 0.4980449239375517, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7001777704044981, "ppAdjusted": 0.02798959108339278, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.728167361487891, "baseline": 1.2702702702702702, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 138, "beforeSOG": 0.9257853493880241, "adjustedSOG": 0.9257853493880241 } }, { "id": "8481524", "name": "Bowen Byram", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.329268292682927, "currentTOI": 24.7, "currentFiveTOI": 19.905555555555555, "ppShare": 0.7592472420506164, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 3.25, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.40299999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.06716666666666667, "priorTOI": 22.341056910569105, "priorPPTOI": 1.5252032520325203, "deploymentChange": 2.3589430894308947, "ppTOIChange": 1.7247967479674797, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020930", "date": "20260227", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020876", "date": "20260202", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 22.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020716", "date": "20260112", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 24.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020076", "date": "20251018", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 24.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021268", "date": "20250412", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07714842292025352, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.09436131514573418, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09746435282243236, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09004607729720114, "goalProbability": 0.09286532222961284, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2819244932411702, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, 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"2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2295048482898296, "adjustedSOG": 1.2231139869608638, "reductionPct": 0.5197914703512718, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.44367326898981807, "afterPlayerForm": 0.44367326898981807, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4436732689898181, "afterRecentZones": 0.4435051759622675, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4435051759622676, "adjusted": 0.4435051759622676, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.924887413137098, "newChartFactor": 0.9229140594146122, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 98.13333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1359148550724638, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1142896007617493, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5526559497046133, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5526559497046133, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5421726071838877, "afterRecentZones": 0.5526559497046133, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5421726071838877, "adjusted": 0.5421726071838877, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1.232318403050308, "newChartFactor": 1.232318403050308, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.383333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.190233977619532, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2231139869608638, "adjustedSOG": 1.2231139869608638, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09649122807017543, "goalHistoryGoals": 11, "goalHistoryShots": 114, "goalExpected": 0.13675965575388055, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13675965575388055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1278201756543989, "goalProbability": 0.1278201756543989, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05761714259438083, "modelSOG": 1.2231139869608638, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08653846153846154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07714842292025352, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": -2.5037528954300683, "index": 97.49624710456993, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.607843137254896, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.49019607843137, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.274509803921568, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.8758169934640523, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3071895424836601, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 7.743946768343605, "index": 107.7439467683436, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.8695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.73913043478261, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5037528954300683, "zonePPFit": 7.743946768343605, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481524", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020971", "date": "20230301" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-25-2026", "availabilityCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9350157040590027, "trialBefore6040": 0.9350157040590027, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9350157040590027, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.025488159350099, "attemptProjection": 1.3005036113720971, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 7166.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.905555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.32279821627647715, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1170.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9636157158869683, "projectedAttempts": 1.0163117220222997, "onNet": 0.4359456635318704, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.44367326898981807, "ppAdjusted": 0.5526559497046133, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1629958853610982, "baseline": 1.329268292682927, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2231139869608638, "adjustedSOG": 1.2231139869608638 } }, { "id": "8481535", "name": "Nils Hoglander", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 0.9210526315789473, "currentTOI": 10.971666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 10.365, "ppShare": 0.11211384935786185, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 0.5383333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.947, "currentIXG": 0.1947, "priorTOI": 11.521929824561402, "priorPPTOI": 0.20043859649122805, "deploymentChange": -0.5502631578947348, "ppTOIChange": 0.33789473684210525, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021188", "date": "20260401", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 6.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021256", "date": "20250410", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020855", "date": "20250204", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11147789909663788, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 132.0, "goalExpected": 0.12469764542825446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12469764542825446, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1172362301001135, "goalProbability": 0.1172362301001135, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.118586252869339, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.367583212735166, "Current_PP_SOG60": 33.43653250773994, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.365, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11211384935786185, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5142883100354465, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0046320023276856, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 323, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.836988737403675, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.098684210526315, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0531226308588135, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0291796394178554, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0080569485494677, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9331738321842387, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0374716868208047, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9267776105523678, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.367583212735166, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 33.43653250773994, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021188", "date": "20260401", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 6.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021256", "date": "20250410", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020855", "date": "20250204", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020496", "date": "20241216", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 7.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vitali Pinchuk", "Alex Kerfoot", "Nils Hoglander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1190236022812, "adjustedSOG": 1.118586252869339, "reductionPct": 0.03908312666232039, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0233876591721525, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0233876591721525, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0233876591721525, "afterRecentZones": 1.0226587434857177, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0226587434857177, "adjusted": 1.0226587434857177, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0080569485494677, "newChartFactor": 1.0067692226780027, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1672297297297298, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1986983594731606, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.22761659024388253, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22761659024388253, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22761659024388253, "afterRecentZones": 0.22761659024388253, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.22761659024388253, "adjusted": 0.22761659024388253, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9331738321842387, "newChartFactor": 0.9331738321842387, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.6916666666666664, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.118586252869339, "adjustedSOG": 1.118586252869339, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11338946823983956, "goalHistoryGoals": 13, "goalHistoryShots": 128, "goalExpected": 0.14053493455335445, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14053493455335445, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.131106689997136, "goalProbability": 0.131106689997136, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862872590419988, "modelSOG": 1.118586252869339, "historyGames": 120, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 38, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 132.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09848484848484848, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11147789909663788, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.0244049428832, "btb": { "id": "8481535", "name": "Nils Hoglander", "score": 50.0244049428832, "components": { "Goal model": 44.88636363636363, "SOG model": 35.22727272727273, "Unit attack": 46.15384615384615, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.04545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.1055900621118, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.323519244510009, "unitPlayers": [ "Vitali Pinchuk", "Alex Kerfoot", "Nils Hoglander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 78 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": 0.26856495164892635, "index": 100.26856495164893, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.10304449648712, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.75175644028103, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.887587822014055, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.59016393442623, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.070257611241217, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.597189695550352, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -2.227538927192043, "index": 97.77246107280796, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.26856495164892635, "zonePPFit": -2.227538927192043, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481535", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4358088898965213, "trialBefore6040": 1.4358088898965213, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4358088898965213, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4068335935825755, "attemptProjection": 1.0951749052494948, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6219.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.365, "projectedAttempts": 1.6, "onNet": 0.5446756807277713, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 323.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5142883100354465, "projectedAttempts": 0.3821337288189076, "onNet": 0.5259313170521321, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0233876591721525, "ppAdjusted": 0.22761659024388253, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2510042494160352, "baseline": 0.9210526315789473, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 38, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 115, "beforeSOG": 1.118586252869339, "adjustedSOG": 1.118586252869339 } }, { "id": "8481540", "name": "Cole Caufield", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.6, "priorSOG": 3.185185185185185, "currentTOI": 19.326666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 14.363333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7092702169625247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 36, "currentPPTOI": 2.9966666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.038, "currentIXG": 0.40380000000000005, "priorTOI": 18.183539094650204, "priorPPTOI": 3.201851851851852, "deploymentChange": 1.1431275720164642, "ppTOIChange": -0.20518518518518558, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16851246581463258, "goalHistoryGoals": 94.0, "goalHistoryShots": 534.0, "goalExpected": 0.5573836649942161, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5573836649942161, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4272945051530294, "goalProbability": 0.4272945051530294, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 3.307670220714415, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.025527964724994, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.013348164627363, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.363333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7092702169625247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.020309007232084, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0070006503158677, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1798, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.821694834704607, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.186813186813186, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.854732510288066, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6739298871063579, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787068004459308, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1108366470763975, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.025527964724994, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.013348164627363, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.629219026458651, "adjustedSOG": 3.6292190264586512, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.6049905470388857, "afterPlayerForm": 2.6049905470388857, "afterRecentDefense": 2.6049905470388857, "afterRecentZones": 2.6049905470388857, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.6049905470388857, "adjusted": 2.6049905470388857, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1108366470763975, "newChartFactor": 1.1108366470763975, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1070302673481949, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1365130016905047, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7202510402687426, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7202510402687426, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7202510402687426, "afterRecentZones": 0.7202510402687426, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7202510402687426, "adjusted": 0.7202510402687426, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.683333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0950060901339829, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.6292190264586512, "adjustedSOG": 3.556634645929478, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19655172413793104, "goalHistoryGoals": 57, "goalHistoryShots": 290, "goalExpected": 0.7004739110384604, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.7004739110384604, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.5036499777099406, "goalProbability": 0.5036499777099406, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836903326477056, "modelSOG": 3.307670220714415, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 94.0, "historyShots": 534.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1760299625468165, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16851246581463258, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.20129317669364, "btb": { "id": "8481540", "name": "Cole Caufield", "score": 67.20129317669364, "components": { "Goal model": 99.43181818181819, "SOG model": 97.72727272727273, "Unit attack": 71.7948717948718, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 94.31818181818181, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.16770186335404, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8165433337873185, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 17, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 17 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 37, "priorAttempts": 255, "fitPct": 3.694554902546585, "index": 103.69455490254659, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.245363010068893, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.41600423953365, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.272919978802335, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.404345521992582, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.75145733969263, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.909909909909911, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": 12.985323168862507, "index": 112.98532316886251, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3953488372093026, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3255813953488373, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.93355481727575, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 52.624584717607966, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.790697674418605, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9302325581395349, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.694554902546585, "zonePPFit": 12.985323168862507, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481540", "goals": 2, "sog": 17, "shootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 24, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.7848608393303023, "trialBefore6040": 3.7848608393303023, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.7848608393303023, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.055443786982248, "attemptProjection": 3.7950393876330084, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 8618.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.363333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 4.3, "onNet": 0.5245703949351824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1798.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.020309007232084, "projectedAttempts": 1.2094674556213016, "onNet": 0.5523965737197011, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.6049905470388857, "ppAdjusted": 0.7202510402687426, "other": 0.6 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.925241587307628, "baseline": 3.185185185185185, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 5, "beforeSOG": 3.556634645929478, "adjustedSOG": 3.307670220714415 } }, { "id": "8481553", "name": "Bobby Brink", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.5294117647058822, "currentTOI": 13.043055555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 11.656944444444443, "ppShare": 0.3195538057742782, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 1.3527777777777779, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5009999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.1250833333333333, "priorTOI": 15.159313725490195, "priorPPTOI": 1.9245098039215687, "deploymentChange": -2.116258169934639, "ppTOIChange": -0.5717320261437908, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020621", "date": "20251230", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020572", "date": "20251222", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12264944947096298, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 225.0, "goalExpected": 0.17967135258143838, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17967135258143838, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16445523407660162, "goalProbability": 0.16445523407660162, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.464917725733251, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.576075300845943, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.08829568788501, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.656944444444443, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3195538057742782, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4497534813356665, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0266484982408008, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 974, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.47945205479452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.169638308711157, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.882352941176471, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3647516558917568, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.576075300845943, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.08829568788501, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020621", "date": "20251230", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020572", "date": "20251222", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020022", "date": "20241011", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.529971371200579, "adjustedSOG": 1.4948140058502561, "reductionPct": 2.2979100140112174, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2431695973798604, "afterPlayerForm": 1.191914202627432, "afterRecentDefense": 1.240079288377876, "afterRecentZones": 1.2431695973798604, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.240079288377876, "adjusted": 1.1889513058531416, "playerFactor": 0.9587703923419172, "defenseFactor": 0.9975141694194438, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7329490874159462, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9882704424884781, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.28717484481718303, "afterPlayerForm": 0.28717484481718303, "afterRecentDefense": 0.28279752742669684, "afterRecentZones": 0.28717484481718303, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2827975274266969, "adjusted": 0.2827975274266969, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.283333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1758551307847083, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4948140058502561, "adjustedSOG": 1.464917725733251, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12337833224077273, "goalHistoryGoals": 27, "goalHistoryShots": 223, "goalExpected": 0.18972396114336298, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18972396114336298, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17281256169383047, "goalProbability": 0.17281256169383047, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286107107806297, "modelSOG": 1.464917725733251, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 225.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12264944947096298, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.717983722989445, "btb": { "id": "8481553", "name": "Bobby Brink", "score": 53.717983722989445, "components": { "Goal model": 63.63636363636363, "SOG model": 58.52272727272727, "Unit attack": 56.41025641025641, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 36.36363636363637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.072463768115945, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4363102477521164, "unitPlayers": [ "Blake Coleman", "Michael McCarron", "Bobby Brink" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 66 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": 11.796706240501763, "index": 111.79670624050176, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": 12.28345494793875, "index": 112.28345494793875, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.567567567567568, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.64864864864865, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.135135135135137, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.324324324324323, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 39.24324324324324, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0810810810810811, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.796706240501763, "zonePPFit": 12.28345494793875, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481553", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5903529308443152, "trialBefore6040": 1.5903529308443152, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5903529308443152, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5539431594488187, "attemptProjection": 1.5067457249452683, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8393.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.656944444444443, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.4928388951692585, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 974.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4497534813356665, "projectedAttempts": 0.44653597987751537, "onNet": 0.5163689294693661, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2431695973798604, "ppAdjusted": 0.28717484481718303, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5303444421970434, "baseline": 1.5294117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 74, "beforeSOG": 1.464917725733251, "adjustedSOG": 1.464917725733251 } }, { "id": "8481557", "name": "Matt Boldy", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 4.666666666666667, "priorSOG": 3.3421052631578947, "currentTOI": 21.62777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 15.595833333333333, "ppShare": 0.7411417322834646, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 56, "currentPPTOI": 3.1374999999999997, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 8.001, "currentIXG": 0.66675, "priorTOI": 20.56907894736842, "priorPPTOI": 3.5723684210526314, "deploymentChange": 1.0586988304093587, "ppTOIChange": -0.4348684210526317, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 2, "attempts": 9, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 27.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 4.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12736086195742444, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 582.0, "goalExpected": 0.5187258838887235, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5187258838887235, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.40472148105217376, "goalProbability": 0.40472148105217376, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 4.07288295569269, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.2209457654288, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.936254980079681, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.595833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7411417322834646, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.36241592847769, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.9166666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0266484982408008, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2259, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.960069256573965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.712707182320441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.185745614035087, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6770697111436859, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2350635235214538, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.2209457654288, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.936254980079681, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 2, "attempts": 9, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 27.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 21.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirill Kaprizov", "Joel Eriksson Ek", "Matt Boldy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 4.483474542183981, "adjustedSOG": 4.4688204473257525, "reductionPct": 0.32684683988614127, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 3.256492340472093, "afterPlayerForm": 3.256492340472093, "afterRecentDefense": 3.2483972522268005, "afterRecentZones": 3.256492340472093, "afterDefenseAndZones": 3.2483972522268, "adjusted": 3.2483972522268, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9975141694194438, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 31.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.123425473205209, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9882704424884781, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.0712283877292783, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0712283877292783, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0548999845441913, "afterRecentZones": 1.0712283877292783, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0548999845441913, "adjusted": 1.0548999845441913, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.2350635235214538, "newChartFactor": 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1296254432467153, "goalHistoryGoals": 74, "goalHistoryShots": 570, "goalExpected": 0.6144954289581569, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6144954289581569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.45908624411789145, "goalProbability": 0.45908624411789145, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860107854963457, "modelSOG": 4.07288295569269, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 76, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 582.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12714776632302405, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12736086195742444, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 73.90896646259918, "btb": { "id": "8481557", "name": "Matt Boldy", "score": 73.90896646259918, "components": { "Goal model": 98.86363636363636, "SOG model": 100.0, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 67.10526315789474, "Shot quality": 99.43181818181819, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.88354037267081, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; 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"shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7272060141377581, "adjustedSOG": 0.7039588470937914, "reductionPct": 3.1967787108486245, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.49534335689626346, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4565980784896523, "afterRecentDefense": 0.49534335689626346, "afterRecentZones": 0.49534335689626346, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.49534335689626346, "adjusted": 0.4565980784896523, "playerFactor": 0.9217809669450653, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9183209660006166, "newChartFactor": 0.9183209660006166, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 81.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.547752159423247, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1142896007617493, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7039588470937914, "adjustedSOG": 0.7039588470937914, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.722634466646113, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481568", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.47318322969074034, "trialBefore6040": 0.47318322969074034, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.47318322969074034, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.46934317860780783, "attemptProjection": 0.5213435351847191, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 10067.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.778333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.3843366778149387, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 37.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07457792207792208, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.49534335689626346, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.49534335689626346, "baseline": 1.075, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 162, "beforeSOG": 0.7039588470937914, "adjustedSOG": 0.7039588470937914 } }, { "id": "8481581", "name": "Thomas Harley", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 1.6142857142857143, "currentTOI": 24.763333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 20.3, "ppShare": 0.258557902403496, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 1.1833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5390000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.1539, "priorTOI": 23.056428571428572, "priorPPTOI": 1.573095238095238, "deploymentChange": 1.7069047619047595, "ppTOIChange": -0.38976190476190475, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 27.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06906710686200335, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 302.0, "goalExpected": 0.11285291281799109, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11285291281799109, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1067179592083088, "goalProbability": 0.1067179592083088, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6339603314132174, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8423645320197046, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.070422535211268, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.3, "Current_PP_Share": 0.258557902403496, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.348163996115562, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 710, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.088989851601274, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.903889813833812, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.285238095238096, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3256706685165103, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9153778283832362, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9367937923588877, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8510519605040416, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8423645320197046, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.070422535211268, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 27.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 25.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.046511627906976744, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 129, "goalExpected": 0.07990716314875569, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07990716314875569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0767979504202878, "goalProbability": 0.0767979504202878, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764976958525345, "modelSOG": 1.6339603314132174, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 70, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 302.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0728476821192053, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06906710686200335, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.677100310171622, "adjustedSOG": 1.6339603314132174, "reductionPct": 2.5722956758615134, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2246156312569494, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1925254167297847, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1844329101287068, "afterRecentZones": 1.2246156312569494, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1844329101287068, "adjusted": 1.1533956563088679, "playerFactor": 0.9737956843697747, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.9153778283832362, "newChartFactor": 0.9153778283832362, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 105.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8628578572321541, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.09436107617194463, "afterPlayerForm": 0.09436107617194463, "afterRecentDefense": 0.09368108652268478, "afterRecentZones": 0.09436107617194463, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.09368108652268478, "adjusted": 0.09368108652268478, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.9367937923588877, "newChartFactor": 0.9367937923588877, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.1580547112462005, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6339603314132174, "adjustedSOG": 1.6339603314132174, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 50.36470020155809, "btb": { "id": "8481581", "name": "Thomas Harley", "score": 50.36470020155809, "components": { "Goal model": 40.90909090909091, "SOG model": 69.31818181818181, "Unit attack": 58.62068965517241, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 51.70454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.3349259436216, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.585633469548827, "unitPlayers": [ "Thomas Harley", "Miro Heiskanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 75 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 135, "fitPct": -2.820739053892126, "index": 97.17926094610787, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 77.01587301587301, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 96 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.269841269841269, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.634920634920634, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.5555555555555562, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.931216931216931, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5925925925925927, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": -2.1068735880370753, "index": 97.89312641196292, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.820739053892126, "zonePPFit": -2.1068735880370753, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481581", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7246697314517632, "trialBefore6040": 1.7246697314517632, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7246697314517632, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6019597981950797, "attemptProjection": 1.8359936166627082, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 12180.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.3, "projectedAttempts": 3.8, "onNet": 0.3747941370223979, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 710.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.348163996115562, "projectedAttempts": 0.22785870356882737, "onNet": 0.42263483642793986, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2246156312569494, "ppAdjusted": 0.09436107617194463, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.718976707428894, "baseline": 1.6142857142857143, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 55, "beforeSOG": 1.6339603314132174, "adjustedSOG": 1.6339603314132174 } }, { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0, "priorSOG": 0.4406779661016949, "currentTOI": 12.088888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 10.372222222222222, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 0, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0, "currentIXG": 0, "priorTOI": 14.018079096045199, "priorPPTOI": 0.012146892655367232, "deploymentChange": -1.92919020715631, "ppTOIChange": -0.012146892655367232, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.9 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06121636180259479, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.015582669444193335, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015582669444193335, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015461887831163281, "goalProbability": 0.015461887831163281, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.2545507277032074, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.372222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 635, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.7243174576730045, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.564689265536725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0025566935556965474, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1045264415378484, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.9 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.259745640513477, "adjustedSOG": 0.259745640513477, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.259745640513477, "adjustedSOG": 0.2545507277032074, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05646105510887949, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 73, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774079677256682, "modelSOG": 0.2545507277032074, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06578947368421052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06121636180259479, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.504026801534298, "btb": { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "score": 31.504026801534298, "components": { "Goal model": 3.977272727272727, "SOG model": 1.7045454545454546, "Unit attack": 10.344827586206897, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.295454545454547, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.39544513457557, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8084985968124268, "unitPlayers": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 173 }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": 3.484214717928282, "index": 103.48421471792828, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.234042553191486, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.702127659574465, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.702127659574467, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.1063829787234045, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.484214717928282, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481593", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0, "trialBefore6040": 0, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0, "attemptProjection": 0.27824818024266335, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1867.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.372222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666666, "onNet": 0.3842670011148272, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.13912409012133167, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.13912409012133167, "baseline": 0.4406779661016949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.2545507277032074, "adjustedSOG": 0.2545507277032074 } }, { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.4406779661016949, "currentTOI": 17.336111111111112, "currentFiveTOI": 16.708333333333332, "ppShare": 0.007594936708860759, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.317, "currentIXG": 0.052833333333333336, "priorTOI": 14.018079096045199, "priorPPTOI": 0.012146892655367232, "deploymentChange": 3.3180320150659135, "ppTOIChange": 0.0211864406779661, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021112", "date": "20250322", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020626", "date": "20250104", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.05 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06121636180259479, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.030830312945754675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030830312945754675, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03035990551163384, "goalProbability": 0.03035990551163384, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5036286384541047, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7955112219451372, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.708333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007594936708860759, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03483947065592635, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9918906336040819, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1580, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.7243174576730045, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.564689265536725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0025566935556965474, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9772131912297699, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9906957086012836, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9681209149398986, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7955112219451372, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021112", "date": "20250322", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 20.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020626", "date": "20250104", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5036286384541047, "adjustedSOG": 0.5036286384541047, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5036286384541047, "adjustedSOG": 0.5036286384541047, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05646105510887949, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 73, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774079677256682, "modelSOG": 0.5036286384541047, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06578947368421052, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06121636180259479, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.504026801534298, "btb": { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "score": 31.504026801534298, "components": { "Goal model": 3.977272727272727, "SOG model": 1.7045454545454546, "Unit attack": 10.344827586206897, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.295454545454547, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.39544513457557, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8084985968124268, "unitPlayers": [ "Nicolas Hague", "Jayden Struble" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 173 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -0.31014304662387815, "index": 99.68985695337612, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.234042553191486, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.702127659574465, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.702127659574467, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.1063829787234045, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.31014304662387815, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481593", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020577", "date": "20240102" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5160324644958754, "trialBefore6040": 0.5160324644958754, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5160324644958754, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4840604574699493, "attemptProjection": 0.6071310492414732, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 6015.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.708333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.38952345860967824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03483947065592635, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5455957533557112, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5455957533557112, "baseline": 0.4406779661016949, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 59, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 174, "beforeSOG": 0.5036286384541047, "adjustedSOG": 0.5036286384541047 } }, { "id": "8481601", "name": "Simon Holmstrom", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.2658227848101267, "currentTOI": 17.241666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.308333333333334, "ppShare": 0.4045853000674309, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 2, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.81, "currentIXG": 0.181, "priorTOI": 16.728691983122363, "priorPPTOI": 1.3116033755274261, "deploymentChange": 0.5129746835443036, "ppTOIChange": 0.6883966244725739, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.5 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17956699162122378, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.23818809408007466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23818809408007466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21194555122413497, "goalProbability": 0.21194555122413497, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3264581197779681, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.362220717670954, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.308333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4045853000674309, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.299055967633176, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1200, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.316255192677902, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.632459385555734, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.49324894514768, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.28615785726426285, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.362220717670954, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 18.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.20535714285714285, "goalHistoryGoals": 23, "goalHistoryShots": 112, "goalExpected": 0.25924493233626256, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25924493233626256, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22836599822285664, "goalProbability": 0.22836599822285664, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845334394200592, "modelSOG": 1.3264581197779681, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 211.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2037914691943128, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17956699162122378, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3535286936509878, "adjustedSOG": 1.3535286936509878, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9699690959926565, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9699690959926565, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9699690959926565, "afterRecentZones": 0.9699690959926565, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9699690959926565, "adjusted": 0.9699690959926565, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.238574423480084, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1835688332660474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.14203020355223886, "afterPlayerForm": 0.14203020355223886, "afterRecentDefense": 0.14203020355223886, "afterRecentZones": 0.14203020355223886, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.14203020355223886, "adjusted": 0.14203020355223886, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2278308321964528, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3535286936509878, "adjustedSOG": 1.3264581197779681, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 62.570184154137245, "btb": { "id": "8481601", "name": "Simon Holmstrom", "score": 62.570184154137245, "components": { "Goal model": 78.97727272727273, "SOG model": 49.43181818181818, "Unit attack": 94.87179487179488, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.8421052631579, "Shot quality": 62.5, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.211657907310084, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.6967708115746656, "unitPlayers": [ "Simon Holmstrom", "Bo Horvat", "Kyle Palmieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 33 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": -8.834339941616932, "index": 91.16566005838307, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.528908999497235, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.947209653092006, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.929110105580698, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.92961287078934, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.60633484162896, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": -11.047940369404387, "index": 88.95205963059561, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 67.61904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.834339941616932, "zonePPFit": -11.047940369404387, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481601", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.317314831074512, "trialBefore6040": 1.317314831074512, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.317314831074512, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.33270987862441, "attemptProjection": 1.4912887204653806, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7385.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.308333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.485791823351796, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.299055967633176, "projectedAttempts": 0.4598111935266352, "onNet": 0.4888942800150951, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9699690959926565, "ppAdjusted": 0.14203020355223886, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4119992995448953, "baseline": 1.2658227848101267, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 90, "beforeSOG": 1.3264581197779681, "adjustedSOG": 1.3264581197779681 } }, { "id": "8481618", "name": "Alex Newhook", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.4523809523809523, "currentTOI": 16.158333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 11.495000000000001, "ppShare": 0.26942800788954635, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 42, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 1.1383333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.933, "currentIXG": 0.1933, "priorTOI": 14.484523809523811, "priorPPTOI": 0.9996031746031746, "deploymentChange": 1.673809523809524, "ppTOIChange": 0.1387301587301586, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1443287053969833, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.19085050648569402, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19085050648569402, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17374390115312677, "goalProbability": 0.17374390115312677, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3223322828314032, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6537625054371468, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.495000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26942800788954635, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1473142669296514, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0056146327014217, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 683, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.011268725971099, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.291385470424771, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.973015873015873, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2103977591036415, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0726303317535546, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1137157514840899, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6537625054371468, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3957251225483576, "adjustedSOG": 1.3493186559504116, "reductionPct": 3.3249001431754466, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9579545693266278, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9258490854864916, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9111472113306919, "afterRecentZones": 0.9579545693266278, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9111472113306919, "adjusted": 0.8806104583300508, "playerFactor": 0.9664853795073977, "defenseFactor": 0.9511382277461883, "oldChartFactor": 1.1137157514840899, "newChartFactor": 1.1137157514840899, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7730810905060218, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7721603040897252, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.133333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3493186559504116, "adjustedSOG": 1.3223322828314032, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19444444444444445, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 72, "goalExpected": 0.29877718791175895, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29877718791175895, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2582753437556088, "goalProbability": 0.2582753437556088, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285532456512516, "modelSOG": 1.3223322828314032, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 42, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1443287053969833, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.2475563624019, "btb": { "id": "8481618", "name": "Alex Newhook", "score": 55.2475563624019, "components": { "Goal model": 65.3409090909091, "SOG model": 48.29545454545455, "Unit attack": 76.92307692307692, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 32.89473684210526, "Shot quality": 66.47727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.56728778467909, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9958866458978637, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 60 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 3.7905250494696645, "index": 103.79052504946966, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.529411764705884, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.352941176470594, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.470588235294116, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.7905250494696645, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481618", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020634", "date": "20230107" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1415416667003138, "trialBefore6040": 1.1415416667003138, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1415416667003138, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.205, "attemptProjection": 1.5109091386532554, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 6897.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.495000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.3000000000000003, "onNet": 0.4446929073540015, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 683.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1473142669296514, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9579545693266278, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3579545693266277, "baseline": 1.4523809523809523, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 42, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 92, "beforeSOG": 1.3223322828314032, "adjustedSOG": 1.3223322828314032 } }, { "id": "8481641", "name": "Joel Kiviranta", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.9803921568627451, "currentTOI": 11.286111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 9.022222222222222, "ppShare": 0.0038095238095238095, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.535, "currentIXG": 0.08916666666666667, "priorTOI": 10.373856209150327, "priorPPTOI": 0.05849673202614379, "deploymentChange": 0.9122549019607842, "ppTOIChange": -0.036274509803921565, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 8.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 9.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13690665512224717, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.1254940699058972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1254940699058972, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11793900488377093, "goalProbability": 0.11793900488377093, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9166396607516312, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.541871921182266, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.022222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0038095238095238095, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.019863492063492062, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0169073928345027, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2100, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.202886065044153, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.10392156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010678655626473462, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0288182831661092, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9215863850047569, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9481449224098549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.541871921182266, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 8.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 10.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 9.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07407407407407407, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 54, "goalExpected": 0.07809300055462004, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07809300055462004, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0751215916612007, "goalProbability": 0.0751215916612007, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857597229339318, "modelSOG": 0.9166396607516312, "historyGames": 136, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 51, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 140.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13690665512224717, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.923070807151142, "adjustedSOG": 0.9166396607516312, "reductionPct": 0.6967121427400746, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7181899073434066, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7074713300108885, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7181899073434066, "afterRecentZones": 0.7181899073434066, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7181899073434066, "adjusted": 0.7074713300108885, "playerFactor": 0.9850755667506297, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9215863850047569, "newChartFactor": 0.9215863850047569, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8851744186046512, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.153661624575198, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.13333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9166396607516312, "adjustedSOG": 0.9166396607516312, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 46.48640761412501, "btb": { "id": "8481641", "name": "Joel Kiviranta", "score": 46.48640761412501, "components": { "Goal model": 46.59090909090909, "SOG model": 21.022727272727273, "Unit attack": 53.84615384615385, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.22727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.06497849976111, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.407300502111726, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 103 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 67, "fitPct": -2.6137871665081036, "index": 97.3862128334919, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.35820895522388, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.164179104477608, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.925373134328353, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.17910447761194, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.179104477611941, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.194029850746269, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.6137871665081036, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481641", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020430", "date": "20251204" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020803", "date": "20250128" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020047", "date": "20241014" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9754931281357918, "trialBefore6040": 0.9754931281357918, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9754931281357918, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9567874353415458, "attemptProjection": 0.8129257126786008, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3248.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.022222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5135352884305511, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.019863492063492062, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7181899073434066, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8848565740100733, "baseline": 0.9803921568627451, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 140, "beforeSOG": 0.9166396607516312, "adjustedSOG": 0.9166396607516312 } }, { "id": "8481655", "name": "Cole Schwindt", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.658333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.516666666666667, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.008, "currentIXG": 0.004, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020732", "date": "20250118", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 6.216666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1193711967092273, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.07999294173785887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07999294173785887, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0768771379932102, "goalProbability": 0.0768771379932102, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6701192912785424, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.522504892367906, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.516666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.993836554207879, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 750, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.009004739336493, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.111419665077138, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.12142770945461, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.522504892367906, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020732", "date": "20250118", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 6.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860649080057915, "modelSOG": 0.6701192912785424, "historyGames": 73, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 29, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 58.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10344827586206896, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1193711967092273, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6916503877695195, "adjustedSOG": 0.6837951951821861, "reductionPct": 1.1357172245164637, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6916503877695195, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6916503877695195, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6916503877695195, "afterRecentZones": 0.6837951951821861, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6837951951821861, "adjusted": 0.6837951951821861, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.111419665077138, "newChartFactor": 1.0802793055482072, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.033333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.027893857083159, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6837951951821861, "adjustedSOG": 0.6701192912785424, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 37.16299551897378, "btb": { "id": "8481655", "name": "Cole Schwindt", "score": 37.16299551897378, "components": { "Goal model": 27.84090909090909, "SOG model": 6.25, "Unit attack": 2.5641025641025643, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 44.88636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.581780538302276, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8278853014127077, "unitPlayers": [ "Bokondji Imama", "Cole Schwindt", "Garnet Hathaway" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 155 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": 3.713988835904601, "index": 103.7139888359046, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.555555555555555, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.555555555555555, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 67.77777777777779, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.713988835904601, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481655", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5282187275028641, "trialBefore6040": 0.5282187275028641, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5282187275028641, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.560713854727305, "attemptProjection": 0.822586920811734, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1022.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.516666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.4895961307176019, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6916503877695195, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6916503877695195, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 166, "beforeSOG": 0.6701192912785424, "adjustedSOG": 0.6701192912785424 } }, { "id": "8481711", "name": "Matias Maccelli", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.625, "priorSOG": 1.267605633802817, "currentTOI": 14.458333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.702083333333333, "ppShare": 0.6583469721767594, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 3.3520833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.113, "currentIXG": 0.139125, "priorTOI": 14.564788732394366, "priorPPTOI": 1.7014084507042253, "deploymentChange": -0.10645539906103174, "ppTOIChange": 1.650674882629108, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021285", "date": "20260413", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020568", "date": "20251221", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020628", "date": "20250104", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 8, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020556", "date": "20241223", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020395", "date": "20241202", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12754197356281127, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.16028164674893766, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16028164674893766, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14809618076664458, "goalProbability": 0.14809618076664458, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.2566972446133815, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.007981312049835, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.237414543194531, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.702083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6583469721767594, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7410566693944354, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9681039069626026, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1609, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2444, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.749967014117957, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.450331125827814, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.4537558685446, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45725793571048945, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.007981312049835, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.237414543194531, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021285", "date": "20260413", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020568", "date": "20251221", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020628", "date": "20250104", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 2, "attempts": 8, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020556", "date": "20241223", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020395", "date": "20241202", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1553398058252427, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 103, "goalExpected": 0.20616146181573905, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20616146181573905, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18629831607557457, "goalProbability": 0.18629831607557457, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859630359652457, "modelSOG": 1.2566972446133815, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 71, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12698412698412698, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12754197356281127, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2824030578904684, "adjustedSOG": 1.2823441271565117, "reductionPct": 0.004595336356549851, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9179314340329785, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9179314340329785, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9179314340329785, "afterRecentZones": 0.9179314340329785, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9179314340329785, "adjusted": 0.9179314340329785, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1823873313998987, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1835688332660474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12433657324925754, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12423835535932981, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12433657324925754, "afterRecentZones": 0.12433657324925754, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12433657324925754, "adjusted": 0.12423835535932981, "playerFactor": 0.9992100643651258, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9944375772558715, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2823441271565117, "adjustedSOG": 1.2566972446133815, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": -8.356403328657052, "index": 91.64359667134295, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.607476635514018, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.598130841121495, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.96261682242991, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.093457943925234, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.364485981308412, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3738317757009346, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": -10.716857509634181, "index": 89.28314249036582, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 65, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.356403328657052, "zonePPFit": -10.716857509634181, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481711", "goals": 2, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020568", "date": "20251221" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2024020628", "date": "20250104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023021130", "date": "20240324" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023021096", "date": "20240320" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020233", "date": "20231114" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022021203", "date": "20230331" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4353744887575206, "trialBefore6040": 1.4353744887575206, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4353744887575206, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4310791734860884, "attemptProjection": 1.1534568410783836, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 5137.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.702083333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.6249999999999998, "onNet": 0.5521435988725708, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1609.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.7410566693944354, "projectedAttempts": 0.27900981996726676, "onNet": 0.5624728378965668, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9179314340329785, "ppAdjusted": 0.12433657324925754, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2922680072822361, "baseline": 1.267605633802817, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2566972446133815, "adjustedSOG": 1.2566972446133815 } }, { "id": "8481726", "name": "Adam Edstrom", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 0.8857142857142857, "currentTOI": 14.101666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 12.691666666666666, "ppShare": 0.006247830614370011, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 35, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 0.03, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.584, "currentIXG": 0.3584, "priorTOI": 9.460952380952381, "priorPPTOI": 0.011904761904761906, "deploymentChange": 4.640714285714287, "ppTOIChange": 0.018095238095238095, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020326", "date": "20251120", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 5.866666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020789", "date": "20250126", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020703", "date": "20250114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13222743436625478, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.18797649194828206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18797649194828206, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17136581342096766, "goalProbability": 0.17136581342096766, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.421614908050086, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.67301378857518, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.691666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006247830614370011, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.028660029661418073, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0046320023276856, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.688363321270197, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.342380952380953, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003249022519688284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0291796394178554, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0251587653122973, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.055072528430164, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.67301378857518, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020326", "date": "20251120", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 5.866666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020789", "date": "20250126", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020703", "date": "20250114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ross Colton", "Jack Drury", "Adam Edstrom" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4281483719732284, "adjustedSOG": 1.421614908050086, "reductionPct": 0.4574779519662453, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.289771096145857, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2788819896072863, "afterRecentDefense": 1.289771096145857, "afterRecentZones": 1.289771096145857, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.289771096145857, "adjusted": 1.2788819896072863, "playerFactor": 0.9915573340330621, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0251587653122973, "newChartFactor": 1.0251587653122973, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9466683242168075, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1986983594731606, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.421614908050086, "adjustedSOG": 1.421614908050086, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13359611909823535, "goalHistoryGoals": 12, "goalHistoryShots": 86, "goalExpected": 0.25231780690342953, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25231780690342953, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22300223642728778, "goalProbability": 0.22300223642728778, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858757660855896, "modelSOG": 1.421614908050086, "historyGames": 96, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 35, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 88.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13222743436625478, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 54.89540350953394, "btb": { "id": "8481726", "name": "Adam Edstrom", "score": 54.89540350953394, "components": { "Goal model": 64.77272727272727, "SOG model": 56.81818181818182, "Unit attack": 15.384615384615385, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 91.47727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.091734352603915, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9676000212745277, "unitPlayers": [ "Ross Colton", "Jack Drury", "Adam Edstrom" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 63 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": 0.8386255104099121, "index": 100.83862551040991, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.154150197628459, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.308300395256918, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.43873517786561, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.762845849802371, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.426877470355731, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8386255104099121, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481726", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020326", "date": "20251120" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.7543868297790886, "trialBefore6040": 1.7543868297790886, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.7543868297790886, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.766087034116197, "attemptProjection": 1.8134551581755174, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7615.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.691666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.6, "onNet": 0.48616572273727504, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.028660029661418073, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.289771096145857, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.789771096145857, "baseline": 0.8857142857142857, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 35, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 77, "beforeSOG": 1.421614908050086, "adjustedSOG": 1.421614908050086 } }, { "id": "8482055", "name": "Drew O'Connor", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.6585365853658536, "currentTOI": 15.861111111111112, "currentFiveTOI": 12.536111111111111, "ppShare": 0.13459879206212252, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 0.65, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.778, "currentIXG": 0.14816666666666667, "priorTOI": 14.589024390243901, "priorPPTOI": 0.36016260162601627, "deploymentChange": 1.272086720867211, "ppTOIChange": 0.28983739837398376, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11165259705422624, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 266.0, "goalExpected": 0.13813134563350432, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14117592923813266, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1290157157500868, "goalProbability": 0.13166346752570518, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2647751775618379, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.2371530020606523, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.786173277199202, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.536111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13459879206212252, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7119715271786022, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 0.9728135835273635, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 468, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.292106266683615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.126410835214447, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.791869918699188, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09545459442571025, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8627242322894497, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9420757886677975, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.786173277199202, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020153", "date": "20241029", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12162162162162163, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 148, "goalExpected": 0.19538477078088323, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19538477078088323, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17748188377597038, "goalProbability": 0.17748188377597038, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864850521846807, "modelSOG": 1.2371530020606523, "historyGames": 178, "seasonGames": { "2024": 84, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 266.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11165259705422624, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2435406672558698, "adjustedSOG": 1.2371530020606523, "reductionPct": 0.5136675754491615, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8835433885158805, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8835433885158805, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8728972798571845, "afterRecentZones": 0.8835433885158805, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8728972798571846, "adjusted": 0.8728972798571846, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9767827670721562, "oldChartFactor": 0.9420757886677975, "newChartFactor": 0.9338469090296247, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.68333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.099951254099087, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8899434016563809, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2371530020606523, "adjustedSOG": 1.2371530020606523, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 46.27925899760938, "btb": { "id": "8482055", "name": "Drew O'Connor", "score": 46.27925899760938, "components": { "Goal model": 51.70454545454545, "SOG model": 43.75, "Unit attack": 23.076923076923077, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 47.15909090909091, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 61.76242236024845, "Goalie H2H": 50.34313725490196 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.040637888741214, "unitPlayers": [ "Drew O'Connor", "Elias Pettersson", "Brock Boeser" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 105 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": -1.9308070444067482, "index": 98.06919295559325, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.970414201183432, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.20710059171598, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.278106508875744, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.680473372781066, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.91715976331361, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.946745562130177, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.9308070444067482, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482055", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020974", "date": "20240303" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0024477514603456, "trialBefore6040": 1.0024477514603456, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0024477514603456, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9333333333333333, "attemptProjection": 1.0004201103650943, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9026.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.536111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4970952260671887, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 468.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7119715271786022, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8835433885158805, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9668767218492138, "baseline": 1.6585365853658536, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 100, "beforeSOG": 1.2371530020606523, "adjustedSOG": 1.2371530020606523 } }, { "id": "8482062", "name": "Cole Smith", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.0952380952380953, "currentTOI": 13.711666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 11.67, "ppShare": 0.006563706563706564, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.028333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.6250000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.16250000000000003, "priorTOI": 13.281746031746032, "priorPPTOI": 0.032539682539682535, "deploymentChange": 0.42992063492063615, "ppTOIChange": -0.004206349206349203, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020927", "date": "20250225", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020211", "date": "20241107", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10387471761632355, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.10416308498440066, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10758845031264475, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09892166690820323, "goalProbability": 0.1020029091854588, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.30812422772555775, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.002776107359851, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.141388174807198, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.67, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006563706563706564, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.034265531765531765, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0137098693522728, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.900532562749266, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.077513227513228, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00712598538685495, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9893295110686415, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7930477212523452, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.141388174807198, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020927", "date": "20250225", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020211", "date": "20241107", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Andrew Mangiapane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0028986350836957, "adjustedSOG": 1.002776107359851, "reductionPct": 0.012217358719868177, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8413389949807626, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8413389949807626, "afterRecentDefense": 0.841134782107688, "afterRecentZones": 0.8413389949807626, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.841134782107688, "adjusted": 0.841134782107688, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9995095033721644, "oldChartFactor": 0.7930477212523452, "newChartFactor": 0.7930477212523452, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1257234726688103, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9976422045387563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.002776107359851, "adjustedSOG": 1.002776107359851, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11538461538461539, "goalHistoryGoals": 9, "goalHistoryShots": 78, "goalExpected": 0.12333763022822603, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12333763022822603, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1160348411866017, "goalProbability": 0.1160348411866017, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864804686464565, "modelSOG": 1.002776107359851, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 63, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.087248322147651, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10387471761632355, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.86816534914361, "btb": { "id": "8482062", "name": "Cole Smith", "score": 45.86816534914361, "components": { "Goal model": 34.65909090909091, "SOG model": 26.704545454545453, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.84090909090909, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 43.581780538302276, "Goalie H2H": 48.75 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1583526824996295, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Andrew Mangiapane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 109 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": -6.898409291588493, "index": 93.1015907084115, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.14512291831879, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.422680412371134, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.898493259317995, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.179222839016653, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.089611419508326, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.26486915146709, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.898409291588493, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482062", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020765", "date": "20260117" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020623", "date": "20251231" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0377997172046343, "trialBefore6040": 1.0377997172046343, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0377997172046343, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.95, "attemptProjection": 0.9326779899615252, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7002.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.67, "projectedAttempts": 1.8, "onNet": 0.5115448048378229, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.034265531765531765, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8413389949807626, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9413389949807626, "baseline": 1.0952380952380953, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 130, "beforeSOG": 1.002776107359851, "adjustedSOG": 1.002776107359851 } }, { "id": "8482070", "name": "Mitchell Chaffee", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "currentTOI": 9.158333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.116666666666667, "ppShare": 0.009578544061302681, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 2, "currentPPTOI": 0.041666666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.211, "currentIXG": 0.1055, "priorTOI": 9.56060606060606, "priorPPTOI": 0.7712121212121211, "deploymentChange": -0.40227272727272734, "ppTOIChange": -0.7295454545454545, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020325", "date": "20241123", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1388700320992138, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 79.0, "goalExpected": 0.11143056068869517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11143056068869517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10544649357395774, "goalProbability": 0.10544649357395774, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.802408979131546, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.581352833638026, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009578544061302681, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05443007662835249, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 522, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7687061613171735, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.581352833638026, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020325", "date": "20241123", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle MacLean", "Casey Cizikas", "Mitchell Chaffee" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 10, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285773574575927, "modelSOG": 0.802408979131546, "historyGames": 79, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 11, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 79.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1518987341772152, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1388700320992138, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8403629344442982, "adjustedSOG": 0.8187846725832102, "reductionPct": 2.567731271412743, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8551503452859515, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8551503452859515, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8191865755174714, "afterRecentZones": 0.8551503452859515, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8191865755174714, "adjusted": 0.8191865755174714, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9127566867989646, "oldChartFactor": 0.7687061613171735, "newChartFactor": 0.7635457394971152, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.233333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5917844166330237, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8187846725832102, "adjustedSOG": 0.802408979131546, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 47.03655493057667, "btb": { "id": "8482070", "name": "Mitchell Chaffee", "score": 47.03655493057667, "components": { "Goal model": 40.34090909090909, "SOG model": 13.068181818181818, "Unit attack": 51.282051282051285, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 55.68181818181818, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.790513833992094, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.393148694985664, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle MacLean", "Casey Cizikas", "Mitchell Chaffee" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 98 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": -7.709794622760882, "index": 92.29020537723912, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.709794622760882, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482070", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020325", "date": "20241123" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8404458603466568, "trialBefore6040": 0.8404458603466568, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8404458603466568, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8500000000000002, "attemptProjection": 0.8603006905719027, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1094.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.116666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4990480542228315, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 5.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05443007662835249, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8551503452859515, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8551503452859515, "baseline": 0.8181818181818182, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 11, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 154, "beforeSOG": 0.802408979131546, "adjustedSOG": 0.802408979131546 } }, { "id": "8482072", "name": "Jack Ahcan", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0, "priorSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "currentTOI": 7.605555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 6.588888888888889, "ppShare": 0.23828125, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.016, "currentIXG": 0.005333333333333333, "priorTOI": 11.531818181818181, "priorPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "deploymentChange": -3.926262626262626, "ppTOIChange": 1.0045454545454544, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.7668674942832894, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482072", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.7100000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.171, "priorTOI": 17.475, "priorPPTOI": 2.29, "deploymentChange": -1.4366666666666674, "ppTOIChange": 0.47333333333333316, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 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218.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17889908256880735, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1630492635412962, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4503144497186125, "adjustedSOG": 1.388140524668831, "reductionPct": 4.286927228908488, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0821744372128665, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0425500713901523, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0247815770672757, "afterRecentZones": 1.0784659096450846, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.021269730364172, "adjusted": 0.9838754212693854, "playerFactor": 0.9633844928690364, "defenseFactor": 0.946965241303051, "oldChartFactor": 0.9347772392010794, "newChartFactor": 0.9290603492153112, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7582245805248816, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7485994496286027, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.35501631231815406, "afterPlayerForm": 0.34969211984533294, "afterRecentDefense": 0.35501631231815406, "afterRecentZones": 0.35501631231815406, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.35501631231815406, "adjusted": 0.34969211984533294, "playerFactor": 0.9850029638411382, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2434810462360142, "newChartFactor": 1.2434810462360142, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8676085818942961, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.388140524668831, "adjustedSOG": 1.388140524668831, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 48.82540442437468, "btb": { "id": "8482079", "name": "Marco Rossi", "score": 48.82540442437468, "components": { "Goal model": 75.0, "SOG model": 52.27272727272727, "Unit attack": 25.641025641025642, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.63157894736842, "Shot quality": 56.81818181818182, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 50.59288537549407, "Goalie H2H": 51.851851851851855 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.052331477726153, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake DeBrusk", "Marco Rossi", "Brendan Gallagher" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 86 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": -2.1740920266306887, "index": 97.82590797336931, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.85526315789474, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.26315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.43421052631579, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.381578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": 8.11603487453381, "index": 108.11603487453381, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.49999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1740920266306887, "zonePPFit": 8.11603487453381, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482079", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2024020706", "date": "20250115" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020467", "date": "20241212" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.584173497148479, "trialBefore6040": 1.584173497148479, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.584173497148479, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.665072291687049, "attemptProjection": 1.4093092073749927, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7553.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.588333333333335, "projectedAttempts": 1.9000000000000004, "onNet": 0.542935974446987, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1658.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.821791881166881, "projectedAttempts": 0.7148085585585585, "onNet": 0.5136318202185227, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0821744372128665, "ppAdjusted": 0.35501631231815406, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5371907495310209, "baseline": 1.32, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 85, "beforeSOG": 1.388140524668831, "adjustedSOG": 1.388140524668831 } }, { "id": "8482087", "name": "Kaiden Guhle", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.0256410256410255, "currentTOI": 22.17222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 17.772222222222222, "ppShare": 0.029987760097919217, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 39, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 0.1361111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.529, "currentIXG": 0.08816666666666667, "priorTOI": 19.46282051282051, "priorPPTOI": 0.017094017094017092, "deploymentChange": 2.7094017094017104, "ppTOIChange": 0.11901709401709401, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06713968652613046, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.09105112408232277, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09105112408232277, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08702896510020437, "goalProbability": 0.08702896510020437, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.3561446112335673, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.064082525789309, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.772222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.029987760097919217, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12769787841697264, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1634, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.62136605975254, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.993162393162393, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0035979706567941866, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.120885931426727, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.064082525789309, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3932868309248332, "adjustedSOG": 1.3838210318709872, "reductionPct": 0.679386242929092, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.638384034447372, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6296155178828626, "afterRecentDefense": 1.638384034447372, "afterRecentZones": 1.6313385121135608, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6313385121135608, "adjusted": 1.6226077026909616, "playerFactor": 0.9946480700616283, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.120885931426727, "newChartFactor": 1.1117297263675714, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 94.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9707912904938928, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.5666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3838210318709872, "adjustedSOG": 1.3561446112335673, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0425531914893617, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 47, "goalExpected": 0.050487437834229605, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.050487437834229605, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.049234127724195643, "goalProbability": 0.049234127724195643, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770731035748704, "modelSOG": 1.3561446112335673, "historyGames": 100, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 39, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 120.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.075, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06713968652613046, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.42079500334748, "btb": { "id": "8482087", "name": "Kaiden Guhle", "score": 45.42079500334748, "components": { "Goal model": 30.681818181818183, "SOG model": 51.70454545454545, "Unit attack": 72.41379310344827, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 34.09090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.32489249880554, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.729840906580548, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 115 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 4.029531047557569, "index": 104.02953104755757, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 69.82142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.607142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.035714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.642857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.75, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.029531047557569, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482087", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5892540345385755, "trialBefore6040": 1.5892540345385755, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5892540345385755, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7249999999999999, "attemptProjection": 1.5517680688947442, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6398.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.772222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 3.5, "onNet": 0.4081955501122678, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 49.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.12769787841697264, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.638384034447372, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.638384034447372, "baseline": 1.0256410256410255, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 39, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 86, "beforeSOG": 1.3561446112335673, "adjustedSOG": 1.3561446112335673 } }, { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.59375, "currentTOI": 14.139393939393939, "currentFiveTOI": 12.501515151515152, "ppShare": 0.030261348005502064, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.615, "currentIXG": 0.05590909090909091, "priorTOI": 12.428645833333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.1609375, "deploymentChange": 1.7107481060606062, "ppTOIChange": -0.02760416666666668, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.045504329131153966, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.02744428317962822, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02744428317962822, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027071110452507277, "goalProbability": 0.027071110452507277, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6031136751962097, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1815537510604774, "Current_PP_SOG60": 40.90909090909091, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.501515151515152, "Current_PP_Share": 0.030261348005502064, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1372898517499618, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9860699137505905, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 88, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2908, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.87283481199831, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.0953125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030502426903963934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0554223470576145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2057104270731296, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.1815537510604774, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 40.90909090909091, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6164760377068541, "adjustedSOG": 0.6154221175471528, "reductionPct": 0.17095882000890406, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5545148775328381, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5545148775328381, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5545148775328381, "afterRecentZones": 0.5539337360568812, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5539337360568812, "adjusted": 0.5539337360568812, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2057104270731296, "newChartFactor": 1.2030295325657119, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.61666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2624894805294162, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2188668790691233, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07711185197858543, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07711185197858543, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07593645985504015, "afterRecentZones": 0.07711185197858543, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07593645985504015, "adjusted": 0.07593645985504015, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.4666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6154221175471528, "adjustedSOG": 0.6031136751962097, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04616486792540038, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 25, "goalExpected": 0.02016714719637909, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02016714719637909, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01996515046165922, "goalProbability": 0.01996515046165922, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779049799656554, "modelSOG": 0.6031136751962097, "historyGames": 44, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 32, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 27.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.045504329131153966, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": 6.85701423577099, "index": 106.85701423577099, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.400000000000006, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.200000000000003, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.85701423577099, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482094", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.6195786439116538, "trialBefore6040": 0.6195786439116538, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.6195786439116538, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6303749973948564, "attemptProjection": 0.6328784616279908, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 8251.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.501515151515152, "projectedAttempts": 1.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.3843366778149387, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 88.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1372898517499618, "projectedAttempts": 0.09360671710224669, "onNet": 0.43092179400495834, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5545148775328381, "ppAdjusted": 0.07711185197858543, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6316267295114235, "baseline": 0.59375, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 32, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6031136751962097, "adjustedSOG": 0.6031136751962097 } }, { "id": "8482113", "name": "Anton Lundell", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.15625, "currentTOI": 17.966666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 11.843939393939394, "ppShare": 0.38182567484030494, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 28, "currentPPTOI": 2.8075757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.9400000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.26727272727272733, "priorTOI": 19.152083333333334, "priorPPTOI": 2.508072916666667, "deploymentChange": -1.1854166666666686, "ppTOIChange": 0.29950284090909074, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11524616528744024, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 324.0, "goalExpected": 0.2473588729863784, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2473588729863784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2191395864666248, "goalProbability": 0.2191395864666248, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.146352309158664, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.829090443904311, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.485159201295197, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.843939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.38182567484030494, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.258441014305428, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9899523720144526, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1853, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4853, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.430818220651625, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.475859204651646, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.411979166666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49059660132849753, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0262037506335528, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.188265227040682, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0711425159178427, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1016500537993241, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.829090443904311, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.485159201295197, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 15.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lars Eller", "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1165644171779141, "goalHistoryGoals": 19, "goalHistoryShots": 163, "goalExpected": 0.25259495627373546, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25259495627373546, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22321755102965962, "goalProbability": 0.22321755102965962, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864374081874658, "modelSOG": 2.146352309158664, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 324.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11524616528744024, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.3777552177596575, "adjustedSOG": 2.3550058252783233, "reductionPct": 0.9567592286799376, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7160314911854502, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6952104923762934, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7160314911854502, "afterRecentZones": 1.7160314911854502, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7160314911854502, "adjusted": 1.6952104923762934, "playerFactor": 0.9878667734735023, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.188265227040682, "newChartFactor": 1.188265227040682, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9187490959062635, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.147416398604457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6275756899291307, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6168269476436858, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6211191938727868, "afterRecentZones": 0.6275756899291307, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6211191938727868, "adjusted": 0.6104810346027301, "playerFactor": 0.9828725961538461, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1.0711425159178427, "newChartFactor": 1.0711425159178427, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.466666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.841762568140521, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3550058252783233, "adjustedSOG": 2.307905708772757, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 58.59728481173398, "btb": { "id": "8482113", "name": "Anton Lundell", "score": 58.59728481173398, "components": { "Goal model": 81.25, "SOG model": 86.36363636363636, "Unit attack": 41.02564102564103, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 53.94736842105263, "Shot quality": 80.68181818181819, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 36.424134871339845, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.266913883867472, "unitPlayers": [ "Lars Eller", "Eetu Luostarinen", "Anton Lundell" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 47 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:59:34.782Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 150, "fitPct": 6.275507568022732, "index": 106.27550756802273, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.368115942028982, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.576811594202898, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.710144927536227, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.492753623188403, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.75072463768116, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.101449275362317, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 2.3714171972614224, "index": 102.37141719726142, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.740259740259741, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.896103896103895, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.48051948051948, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.275507568022732, "zonePPFit": 2.3714171972614224, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482113", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.478210496912527, "trialBefore6040": 2.478210496912527, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.478210496912527, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.6841455766853906, "attemptProjection": 2.3667051491801345, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 7817.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.843939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 2.818181818181818, "onNet": 0.524229410331384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 1853.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.258441014305428, "projectedAttempts": 0.9506659423411946, "onNet": 0.5599525992453301, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7160314911854502, "ppAdjusted": 0.6275756899291307, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5254253629327623, "baseline": 2.15625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 25, "beforeSOG": 2.307905708772757, "adjustedSOG": 2.146352309158664 } }, { "id": "8482145", "name": "Mavrik Bourque", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 1.7926829268292683, "currentTOI": 15.950000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 14.219444444444443, "ppShare": 0.24334847501622323, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 1.0416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9450000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.1575, "priorTOI": 15.48658536585366, "priorPPTOI": 1.075609756097561, "deploymentChange": 0.463414634146341, "ppTOIChange": -0.0339430894308943, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021209", "date": "20260404", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021080", "date": "20260318", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020984", "date": "20260306", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020034", "date": "20251011", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021067", "date": "20250316", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.766666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.727272727272727, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12937795327287763, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.2405833258155274, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2405833258155274, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21383086546549807, "goalProbability": 0.21383086546549807, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.8595388142220868, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.032623559288924, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.2, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.219444444444443, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24334847501622323, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.116287387174798, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0151429547304047, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 375, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1541, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.829524560021014, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.482993197278912, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.928048780487805, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22267853836702403, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07204919882645, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0399969209467648, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1572546841540279, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.114927865882954, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1493225527664126, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.032623559288924, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.2, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021209", "date": "20260404", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021080", "date": "20260318", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020984", "date": "20260306", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020034", "date": "20251011", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 10.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021067", "date": "20250316", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020724", "date": "20250118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020373", "date": "20241129", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 7.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Filip Forsberg", "Mavrik Bourque", "Jonathan Marchessault" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8778666973950688, "adjustedSOG": 1.8595388142220868, "reductionPct": 0.9759948988075751, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6377447865665595, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6230769361331645, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6377447865665595, "afterRecentZones": 1.6377447865665595, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6377447865665595, "adjusted": 1.6230769361331645, "playerFactor": 0.9910438729198184, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0399969209467648, "newChartFactor": 1.0399969209467648, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.94533702677747, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0796753277044362, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.29691109120570996, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2815875289088927, "afterRecentDefense": 0.29691109120570996, "afterRecentZones": 0.29632582650757056, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.29632582650757056, "adjusted": 0.28103246968413476, "playerFactor": 0.9483900643974241, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1572546841540279, "newChartFactor": 1.153955220509665, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.1166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8595388142220868, "adjustedSOG": 1.8595388142220868, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13128410999090248, "goalHistoryGoals": 31, "goalHistoryShots": 234, "goalExpected": 0.23596612534555234, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23596612534555234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21019257206663963, "goalProbability": 0.21019257206663963, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859126159505513, "modelSOG": 1.8595388142220868, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1297071129707113, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12937795327287763, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.84726165273682, "btb": { "id": "8482145", "name": "Mavrik Bourque", "score": 48.84726165273682, "components": { "Goal model": 79.54545454545455, "SOG model": 75.0, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 34.21052631578947, "Shot quality": 55.11363636363637, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 35.0383631713555, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7786211160464407, "unitPlayers": [ "Filip Forsberg", "Mavrik Bourque", "Jonathan Marchessault" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 85 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": 1.333230698225492, "index": 101.33323069822549, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.085714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.709090909090909, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.992207792207793, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.992207792207793, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.535064935064934, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 5.241822805134262, "index": 105.24182280513426, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.333230698225492, "zonePPFit": 5.241822805134262, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482145", "goals": 1, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021209", "date": "20260404" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025021080", "date": "20260318" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020984", "date": "20260306" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020034", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021067", "date": "20250316" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020724", "date": "20250118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.1205674279520856, "trialBefore6040": 2.1205674279520856, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.1205674279520856, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.268764876028503, "attemptProjection": 1.6005468795160356, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 5119.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.219444444444443, "projectedAttempts": 2.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.5455781882591094, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 375.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.116287387174798, "projectedAttempts": 0.3572119638959354, "onNet": 0.5437887260087654, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6377447865665595, "ppAdjusted": 0.29691109120570996, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9346558777722693, "baseline": 1.7926829268292683, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 45, "beforeSOG": 1.8595388142220868, "adjustedSOG": 1.8595388142220868 } }, { "id": "8482149", "name": "Cole Perfetti", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.8, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 18.62666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.676666666666668, "ppShare": 0.7231726283048211, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 28, "currentPPTOI": 3.1, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.3309999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.43309999999999993, "priorTOI": 15.623774509803923, "priorPPTOI": 2.174509803921569, "deploymentChange": 3.002892156862746, "ppTOIChange": 0.9254901960784312, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12005513282289754, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.27920507856768606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27920507856768606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24361523099680663, "goalProbability": 0.24361523099680663, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.3256404953511045, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.358619123325005, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.676666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7231726283048211, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8997083981337477, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 1.0217826805282162, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1860, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.118072382577006, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.738503155996392, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.643872549019607, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4764796527605671, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0534211860111506, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9453064468389755, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0166152883056467, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9958058383731002, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9825463687125686, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.358619123325005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5, "goals": 0, "attempts": 10, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 162, "goalExpected": 0.22605732209428303, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22605732209428303, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2023276238960057, "goalProbability": 0.2023276238960057, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862439058919298, "modelSOG": 2.3256404953511045, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 307.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11726384364820847, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12005513282289754, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.547109398412645, "adjustedSOG": 2.500688704678607, "reductionPct": 1.822485275385799, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7758259834818886, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7758259834818886, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7758259834818886, "afterRecentZones": 1.7758259834818886, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7758259834818886, "adjusted": 1.7758259834818886, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9453064468389755, "newChartFactor": 0.9453064468389755, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.08333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1198381502890173, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0742240962189813, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9360230138725195, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9128313722341602, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8810626765155527, "afterRecentZones": 0.935393810351886, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8804704178533764, "adjusted": 0.8586551909824558, "playerFactor": 0.9752232142857143, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1.0166152883056467, "newChartFactor": 1.0153214968032704, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8340807174887893, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.500688704678607, "adjustedSOG": 2.500688704678607, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 67.02916073656104, "btb": { "id": "8482149", "name": "Cole Perfetti", "score": 67.02916073656104, "components": { "Goal model": 85.22727272727273, "SOG model": 90.3409090909091, "Unit attack": 87.17948717948718, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 94.88636363636364, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.505767524401065, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1694129343445034, "unitPlayers": [ "Kyle Connor", "Mark Scheifele", "Cole Perfetti" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 19 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -1.823118438700817, "index": 98.17688156129918, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.76475216365067, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.802517702596383, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.086546026750593, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.391817466561763, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.734854445318646, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2195121951219512, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": 0.553842943521559, "index": 100.55384294352156, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.74458874458874, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.32467532467533, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.16883116883117, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.823118438700817, "zonePPFit": 0.553842943521559, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482149", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.958601711543867, "trialBefore6040": 2.958601711543867, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.958601711543867, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9812619479423472, "attemptProjection": 2.842436046766469, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8806.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.676666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.4772066103114767, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1860.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.8997083981337477, "projectedAttempts": 1.8869556765163296, "onNet": 0.5138506326279252, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7758259834818886, "ppAdjusted": 0.9360230138725195, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.911848997354408, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 18, "beforeSOG": 2.500688704678607, "adjustedSOG": 2.3256404953511045 } }, { "id": "8482176", "name": "Wyatt Kaiser", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.974025974025974, "currentTOI": 19.381666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 16.85333333333333, "ppShare": 0.02857142857142857, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.12333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.44800000000000006, "currentIXG": 0.044800000000000006, "priorTOI": 19.613419913419914, "priorPPTOI": 0.08051948051948052, "deploymentChange": -0.2317532467532466, "ppTOIChange": 0.04281385281385282, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.578591911525422, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482459", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.3176225596865402, "trialBefore6040": 0.3176225596865402, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.3176225596865402, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.28333333333333327, "attemptProjection": 0.41465411614008535, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3086.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.572222222222221, "projectedAttempts": 1.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.38564708873633363, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3489937247367093, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3489937247367093, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.3435220492201281, "adjustedSOG": 0.3435220492201281 } }, { "id": "8482476", "name": "Emil Heineman", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2.1219512195121952, "currentTOI": 15.608333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.828333333333333, "ppShare": 0.03843560350640594, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 0.19, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.132, "currentIXG": 0.2132, "priorTOI": 16.616056910569107, "priorPPTOI": 1.5890243902439025, "deploymentChange": -1.0077235772357724, "ppTOIChange": -1.3990243902439026, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020673", "date": "20250111", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13274239417494813, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.21149642685045275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21149642685045275, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19062782694462724, "goalProbability": 0.19062782694462724, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5932847088151099, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.548005716512927, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.828333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03843560350640594, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.21841031692515173, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9681039069626026, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 114, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0033670033670035, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.511895625479662, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.582317073170731, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3466839313904608, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7516132164717386, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.548005716512927, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020673", "date": "20250111", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13114754098360656, "goalHistoryGoals": 24, "goalHistoryShots": 183, "goalExpected": 0.23573163848952874, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23573163848952874, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21000735089088254, "goalProbability": 0.21000735089088254, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285806514375669, "modelSOG": 1.5932847088151099, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 253.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13438735177865613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13274239417494813, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6258007232807243, "adjustedSOG": 1.6258007232807243, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.195033725793077, "afterPlayerForm": 1.195033725793077, "afterRecentDefense": 1.195033725793077, "afterRecentZones": 1.195033725793077, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.195033725793077, "adjusted": 1.195033725793077, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7516132164717386, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1034334456311374, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1835688332660474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.5333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6258007232807243, "adjustedSOG": 1.5932847088151099, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 59.97324471866806, "btb": { "id": "8482476", "name": "Emil Heineman", "score": 59.97324471866806, "components": { "Goal model": 71.5909090909091, "SOG model": 64.77272727272727, "Unit attack": 92.3076923076923, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 39.473684210526315, "Shot quality": 73.29545454545455, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.058289536550404, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4508720549148446, "unitPlayers": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 41 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": -8.279559450942045, "index": 91.72044054905795, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.887096774193548, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 38.03763440860215, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.607526881720432, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.451612903225804, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.586021505376344, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.43010752688172, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.279559450942045, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482476", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2990468309357914, "trialBefore6040": 1.2990468309357914, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2990468309357914, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.29, "attemptProjection": 1.300067451586154, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 7697.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.828333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.4972441888329739, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 114.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.21841031692515173, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.195033725793077, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.295033725793077, "baseline": 2.1219512195121952, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 63, "beforeSOG": 1.5932847088151099, "adjustedSOG": 1.5932847088151099 } }, { "id": "8482482", "name": "Adam Wilsby", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.0172413793103448, "currentTOI": 19.518333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 17.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.008330440819160014, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.04, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.74, "currentIXG": 0.074, "priorTOI": 17.008333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.03275862068965517, "deploymentChange": 2.5100000000000016, "ppTOIChange": 0.007241379310344832, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03834746966786534, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.042445406614045306, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.042445406614045306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04155721127023602, "goalProbability": 0.04155721127023602, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1068632945451935, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7533460803059273, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008330440819160014, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.038213372881890764, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9918906336040819, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2881, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6072144288577155, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.486206896551725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00811265094494853, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9772131912297699, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0246802167715827, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0013310246213707, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7533460803059273, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1101175277346056, "adjustedSOG": 1.1068632945451935, "reductionPct": 0.2931431229676096, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.872034960017446, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8666112380350928, "afterRecentDefense": 0.872034960017446, "afterRecentZones": 0.872034960017446, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.872034960017446, "adjusted": 0.8666112380350928, "playerFactor": 0.9937803846966815, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0246802167715827, "newChartFactor": 1.0246802167715827, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 97.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9665358808142841, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1558877037776905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1068632945451935, "adjustedSOG": 1.1068632945451935, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03907469379213124, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 99, "goalExpected": 0.0336145789400613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0336145789400613, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0330558865476398, "goalProbability": 0.0330558865476398, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784536342576665, "modelSOG": 1.1068632945451935, "historyGames": 91, "seasonGames": { "2024": 23, "2025": 58, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 103.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.019417475728155338, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03834746966786534, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.0721346681804, "btb": { "id": "8482482", "name": "Adam Wilsby", "score": 42.0721346681804, "components": { "Goal model": 9.659090909090908, "SOG model": 34.65909090909091, "Unit attack": 93.10344827586206, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 21.022727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.63162924032489, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.220978568192797, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Josi", "Adam Wilsby" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 130 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": 0.8226738923860921, "index": 100.82267389238609, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.47058823529412, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.8235294117647065, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.705882352941178, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.764705882352938, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.470588235294118, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8226738923860921, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482482", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1256519431934007, "trialBefore6040": 1.1256519431934007, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1256519431934007, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1010648196970967, "attemptProjection": 1.2430051003377953, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 10460.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.3781335683509597, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 24.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.038213372881890764, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.872034960017446, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.172034960017446, "baseline": 1.0172413793103448, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 116, "beforeSOG": 1.1068632945451935, "adjustedSOG": 1.1068632945451935 } }, { "id": "8482516", "name": "Matthew Kessel", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 0.6896551724137931, "currentTOI": 13.62, "currentFiveTOI": 12.016666666666667, "ppShare": 0.02962962962962963, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.285, "currentIXG": 0.056999999999999995, "priorTOI": 12.536781609195403, "priorPPTOI": 0.0028735632183908046, "deploymentChange": 1.0832183908045963, "ppTOIChange": 0.13045977011494253, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020899", "date": "20260204", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 7.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020083", "date": "20251018", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 9.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05438172537739638, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 43.0, "goalExpected": 0.04612929829978615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04612929829978615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04508151512834532, "goalProbability": 0.04508151512834532, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8482499953736238, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.993065187239944, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.016666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02962962962962963, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1683703703703704, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 40, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1350, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.783065049210146, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.993065187239944, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020899", "date": "20260204", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 7.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020083", "date": "20251018", "team": "STL", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 9.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 23, "goalExpected": 0.05972369920716153, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05972369920716153, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0579752201769894, "goalProbability": 0.0579752201769894, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057765867289676816, "modelSOG": 0.8482499953736238, "historyGames": 63, "seasonGames": { "2024": 29, "2025": 29, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 43.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046511627906976744, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05438172537739638, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8661913536406083, "adjustedSOG": 0.8655612197690039, "reductionPct": 0.07274765200043776, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7838821411251518, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7838821411251518, "afterRecentDefense": 0.782831918005811, "afterRecentZones": 0.7838821411251518, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7828319180058109, "adjusted": 0.7828319180058109, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.783065049210146, "newChartFactor": 0.783065049210146, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.083333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.6666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8655612197690039, "adjustedSOG": 0.8482499953736238, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 41.761254113203144, "btb": { "id": "8482516", "name": "Matthew Kessel", "score": 41.761254113203144, "components": { "Goal model": 10.795454545454545, "SOG model": 18.181818181818183, "Unit attack": 89.65517241379311, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.40909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.91097308488613, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0695791462892164, "unitPlayers": [ "Matthew Kessel", "Tony DeAngelo" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 135 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": -7.231165026328469, "index": 92.76883497367153, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.231165026328469, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482516", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020899", "date": "20260204" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020083", "date": "20251018" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023021305", "date": "20240417" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.085448803851786, "trialBefore6040": 1.085448803851786, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.085448803851786, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.05, "attemptProjection": 0.9177642822503036, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3605.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.016666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4163647342995169, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 40.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1683703703703704, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7838821411251518, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9838821411251518, "baseline": 0.6896551724137931, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 145, "beforeSOG": 0.8482499953736238, "adjustedSOG": 0.8482499953736238 } }, { "id": "8482641", "name": "Matt Kiersted", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 13.045833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.875, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.357, "currentIXG": 0.08925, "priorTOI": 15.727777777777776, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.6819444444444436, "ppTOIChange": 0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.051580943661511294, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.07270224056599851, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07270224056599851, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07012233134359991, "goalProbability": 0.07012233134359991, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.409478683505504, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.105263157894736, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.875, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9860699137505905, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1003, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0554223470576145, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2224920537715707, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.105263157894736, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.441120443740803, "adjustedSOG": 1.438243554597453, "reductionPct": 0.19962864005191872, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9574229617902275, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9574229617902275, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9574229617902275, "afterRecentZones": 1.9526281465513107, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9526281465513107, "adjusted": 1.9526281465513107, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2224920537715707, "newChartFactor": 1.2173949898334153, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2188668790691233, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.438243554597453, "adjustedSOG": 1.409478683505504, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 7, "goalExpected": 0.058874887542288014, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.058874887542288014, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05717527910364714, "goalProbability": 0.05717527910364714, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057770656900892656, "modelSOG": 1.409478683505504, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 6, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.051580943661511294, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 49.74431818181818, "btb": { "id": "8482641", "name": "Matt Kiersted", "score": 49.74431818181818, "components": { "Goal model": 25.0, "SOG model": 53.97727272727273, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 45.45454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.612347070296702, "unitPlayers": [ "Matt Kiersted", "Zach Bogosian" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 82 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": 7.416401792385685, "index": 107.41640179238568, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 44, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.416401792385685, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482641", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.259094029866266, "trialBefore6040": 2.259094029866266, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.259094029866266, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3, "attemptProjection": 1.614845923580455, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2850.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.875, "projectedAttempts": 3.2499999999999996, "onNet": 0.44415688980906376, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9574229617902275, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9574229617902275, "baseline": 0.6666666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 6, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 82, "beforeSOG": 1.409478683505504, "adjustedSOG": 1.409478683505504 } }, { "id": "8482691", "name": "Aatu Rty", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.9848484848484849, "currentTOI": 10.1625, "currentFiveTOI": 9.541666666666666, "ppShare": 0.02851182197496523, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0.17083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.956, "currentIXG": 0.239, "priorTOI": 12.021212121212121, "priorPPTOI": 0.09621212121212121, "deploymentChange": -1.8587121212121218, "ppTOIChange": 0.07462121212121213, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 2, "attempts": 4, "toi": 14.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12246532617591623, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.12120724239609176, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12387879809019516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11414964518192523, "goalProbability": 0.11651308530480682, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23634401228815882, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9897270205444333, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.716157205240175, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.541666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02851182197496523, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.15081565832174315, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.031239781375825, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 41, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1438, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.021153935561858, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.89763779527559, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.863131313131314, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025499285510705582, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0811611374407584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9422553165779308, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0633494786294582, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0187298298309975, "Combined_PP_Factor": 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"attempts": 1, "toi": 13.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 9.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07246376811594203, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 69, "goalExpected": 0.06758351354315133, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06758351354315133, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06535033854825881, "goalProbability": 0.06535033854825881, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", 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Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0320649289917507, "trialBefore6040": 1.0320649289917507, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0320649289917507, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9956934221420957, "attemptProjection": 0.8385494951563195, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 747.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.45, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.4034977703455965, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 174.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6628589015151516, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9171214586492076, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9171214586492076, "baseline": 0.6111111111111112, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 18, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.794717319633969, "adjustedSOG": 0.794717319633969 } }, { "id": "8482737", "name": "Zack Bolduc", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.294871794871795, "currentTOI": 13.873333333333331, "currentFiveTOI": 12.05, "ppShare": 0.3495069033530572, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 1.4766666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.564, "currentIXG": 0.2564, "priorTOI": 13.631410256410257, "priorPPTOI": 1.5773504273504273, "deploymentChange": 0.24192307692307402, "ppTOIChange": -0.1006837606837605, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 7.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021231", "date": "20250407", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020903", "date": "20250222", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020403", "date": "20241203", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 12.733333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14158424669231773, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.22355551379102204, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22355551379102204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20032950210553802, "goalProbability": 0.20032950210553802, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5789575395124238, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.975103734439834, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.18961625282167, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3495069033530572, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.488316896778435, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0070006503158677, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 886, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.207015006327969, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.753454348415064, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.818376068376068, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3320027423556836, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787068004459308, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1142936342407872, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9205920567779269, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9658846499711596, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.975103734439834, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.18961625282167, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 7.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021231", "date": "20250407", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020903", "date": "20250222", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 10.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020403", "date": "20241203", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 12.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020099", "date": "20241022", "team": "STL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6301074449951143, "adjustedSOG": 1.6111811627677795, "reductionPct": 1.1610450762275737, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.319414571503558, "afterPlayerForm": 1.293392505954767, "afterRecentDefense": 1.319414571503558, "afterRecentZones": 1.318985688814234, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.318985688814234, "adjusted": 1.2929720818755688, "playerFactor": 0.9802775669521847, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1142936342407872, "newChartFactor": 1.1136010237327443, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8688441848727377, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1365130016905047, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3341833069071027, "afterPlayerForm": 0.32908199282286704, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3341833069071027, "afterRecentZones": 0.3341833069071027, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3341833069071027, "adjusted": 0.32908199282286704, "playerFactor": 0.9847349823321555, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9205920567779269, "newChartFactor": 0.9205920567779269, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.583333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8601941747572815, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6111811627677795, "adjustedSOG": 1.5789575395124238, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13675213675213677, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 117, "goalExpected": 0.20263634183026794, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20263634183026794, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18342485834129546, "goalProbability": 0.18342485834129546, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855475382003395, "modelSOG": 1.5789575395124238, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 238.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14705882352941177, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14158424669231773, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.19673490125435, "btb": { "id": "8482737", "name": "Zack Bolduc", "score": 57.19673490125435, "components": { "Goal model": 73.29545454545455, "SOG model": 63.06818181818182, "Unit attack": 84.61538461538461, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 32.89473684210526, "Shot quality": 78.4090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 31.948757763975156, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.161490446185151, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 52 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 149, "fitPct": 3.8097878080262433, "index": 103.80978780802624, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.501776549545994, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.58744571654165, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.11369917094354, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.361626529806554, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.556257402289774, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8791946308724834, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -2.64693144073577, "index": 97.35306855926423, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.48387096774194, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.451612903225794, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.870967741935485, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.32258064516129, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.8097878080262433, "zonePPFit": -2.64693144073577, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482737", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020435", "date": "20241207" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020940", "date": "20240228" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.792430419665151, "trialBefore6040": 1.792430419665151, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.792430419665151, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8720515125060724, "attemptProjection": 1.835144244315249, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7230.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.05, "projectedAttempts": 2.3, "onNet": 0.5039047497119447, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 886.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.488316896778435, "projectedAttempts": 0.6047337278106508, "onNet": 0.5580104923325263, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.319414571503558, "ppAdjusted": 0.3341833069071027, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8535978784106608, "baseline": 1.294871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 66, "beforeSOG": 1.5789575395124238, "adjustedSOG": 1.5789575395124238 } }, { "id": "8482740", "name": "Wyatt Johnston", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 20.108333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.83125, "ppShare": 0.7764026402640264, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 24, "currentPPTOI": 3.9208333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.492, "currentIXG": 0.5615, "priorTOI": 20.123373983739835, "priorPPTOI": 3.3321138211382118, "deploymentChange": -0.015040650406501044, "ppTOIChange": 0.5887195121951216, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1726289322434472, "goalHistoryGoals": 79.0, "goalHistoryShots": 432.0, "goalExpected": 0.4345848064944391, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4345848064944391, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3524665370385244, "goalProbability": 0.3524665370385244, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.5174505851752174, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.056890012642225, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.302869287991498, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.83125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7764026402640264, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.048292766776678, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.75, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9845569359260292, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1882, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2424, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.444908448442018, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.030254971330976, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.185365853658537, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6898321916078972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9082642180094787, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9305256639808299, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9757467689320879, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8864396918815247, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.056890012642225, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.302869287991498, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 8, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19911504424778761, "goalHistoryGoals": 45, "goalHistoryShots": 226, "goalExpected": 0.5325282524796534, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5325282524796534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.41288129268083307, "goalProbability": 0.41288129268083307, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12838591953513917, "modelSOG": 2.5174505851752174, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 79.0, "historyShots": 432.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18287037037037038, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1726289322434472, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.7618594957642832, "adjustedSOG": 2.7069361130916314, "reductionPct": 1.9886378274088456, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.209715082780082, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1954912981129906, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1784245362583583, "afterRecentZones": 1.209715082780082, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1784245362583583, "adjusted": 1.1645686646661522, "playerFactor": 0.9882420374271905, "defenseFactor": 0.9538803877813323, "oldChartFactor": 0.9305256639808299, "newChartFactor": 0.9293170934521608, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9292347281270977, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7848038262416315, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9685873288595772, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9348285962262574, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9554972732295026, "afterRecentZones": 0.9685873288595772, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9554972732295026, "adjusted": 0.9221947758524206, "playerFactor": 0.9651464234277485, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 0.9757467689320879, "newChartFactor": 0.9757467689320879, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.716666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7954353338968724, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.7069361130916314, "adjustedSOG": 2.7069361130916314, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 67.06445728184859, "btb": { "id": "8482740", "name": "Wyatt Johnston", "score": 67.06445728184859, "components": { "Goal model": 96.5909090909091, "SOG model": 92.04545454545455, "Unit attack": 53.84615384615385, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 97.1590909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 36.95652173913044, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.407300502111726, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Kiviranta", "Wyatt Johnston", "Mikko Rantanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 18 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": -2.315811200639004, "index": 97.684188799361, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.885714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.342857142857145, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.94285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 61 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.742857142857144, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.942857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 96, "fitPct": -0.8084410355970704, "index": 99.19155896440293, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.616121684341877, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.262820512820507, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.964242646187856, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.42307692307692, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.605151326206823, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.448717948717948, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.228825133994206, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.500630674439606, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4166666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -29.638066232390827, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.315811200639004, "zonePPFit": -0.8084410355970704, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482740", "goals": 0, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 25, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.848163681528819, "trialBefore6040": 2.848163681528819, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.848163681528819, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7277562957265182, "attemptProjection": 3.1288485275528, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7119.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.83125, "projectedAttempts": 3.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.47922408428165014, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1882.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.048292766776678, "projectedAttempts": 2.065016501650165, "onNet": 0.5193486932190273, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.209715082780082, "ppAdjusted": 0.9685873288595772, "other": 0.75 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.928302411639659, "baseline": 2.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 15, "beforeSOG": 2.7069361130916314, "adjustedSOG": 2.5174505851752174 } }, { "id": "8482742", "name": "Zachary L'Heureux", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 1.28, "currentTOI": 9.083333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.972222222222223, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 25, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.641, "currentIXG": 0.21366666666666667, "priorTOI": 13.390666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.446, "deploymentChange": -4.307333333333332, "ppTOIChange": -0.446, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10122494413855601, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.14802259250309047, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14802259250309047, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1375883693154843, "goalProbability": 0.1375883693154843, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.4623134027170037, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.972222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9861472997848124, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 813, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.427899402931065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 37.66816143497758, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.054, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11045160770733084, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9889074693422519, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0408477759036259, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.029302140039366, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5350167853447025, "adjustedSOG": 1.4921565333846978, "reductionPct": 2.792168292177999, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7050279755745041, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7050279755745041, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6335942223078295, "afterRecentZones": 1.7050279755745041, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6335942223078297, "adjusted": 1.6335942223078297, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9581040579450871, "oldChartFactor": 1.0408477759036259, "newChartFactor": 1.0408477759036259, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.916666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8064301980128095, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4921565333846978, "adjustedSOG": 1.4623134027170037, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 38, "goalExpected": 0.10607967340339426, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10607967340339426, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10064700929225373, "goalProbability": 0.10064700929225373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864587933928098, "modelSOG": 1.4623134027170037, "historyGames": 90, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 25, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07758620689655173, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10122494413855601, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": 1.3615925301208591, "index": 101.36159253012086, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.571428571428575, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.3615925301208591, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482742", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.062228099725118, "trialBefore6040": 2.062228099725118, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.062228099725118, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0586042800787325, "attemptProjection": 1.351451671070276, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1615.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.972222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5400885391047713, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7050279755745041, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7050279755745041, "baseline": 1.28, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.4623134027170037, "adjustedSOG": 1.4623134027170037 } }, { "id": "8482765", "name": "Isak Rosen", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 0.9459459459459459, "currentTOI": 13.165000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 11.506666666666666, "ppShare": 0.26166407465007774, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 1.1216666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.1219999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.1122, "priorTOI": 11.504504504504505, "priorPPTOI": 1.5648648648648649, "deploymentChange": 1.6604954954954962, "ppTOIChange": -0.4431981981981983, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12167940944369497, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 55.0, "goalExpected": 0.13090280780199837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13090280780199837, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12269696274196167, "goalProbability": 0.12269696274196167, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261009", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0758008146199243, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.735805330243338, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.506666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26166407465007774, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.3925, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4110235225505443, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9595235634722116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Position_Factor": 0.9993791211877663, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 673, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2572, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.479882011337973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.253886010362694, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.773423423423424, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3428939552644648, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9689520624303234, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9512683229792392, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9217334034753688, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9664878937145835, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.735805330243338, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Dawson Mercer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 46, "goalExpected": 0.11577949627675012, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11577949627675012, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10932840195044222, "goalProbability": 0.10932840195044222, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286030846377272, "modelSOG": 1.0758008146199243, "historyGames": 55, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 37, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 55.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10909090909090909, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12167940944369497, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1057479295580104, "adjustedSOG": 1.0758008146199243, "reductionPct": 2.7083130013236034, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1122825852993865, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1110309173416348, "afterRecentDefense": 1.063567575309531, "afterRecentZones": 1.1122825852993865, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.063567575309531, "adjusted": 1.062370727069243, "playerFactor": 0.998874685287449, "defenseFactor": 0.956202667708995, "oldChartFactor": 0.9512683229792392, "newChartFactor": 0.9512683229792392, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9927295929830237, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7934609801617474, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9412831345571466, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.283333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6299568813175939, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.68333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0758008146199243, "adjustedSOG": 1.0758008146199243, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 42.9192737087474, "btb": { "id": "8482765", "name": "Isak Rosen", "score": 42.9192737087474, "components": { "Goal model": 48.86363636363637, "SOG model": 30.681818181818183, "Unit attack": 17.94871794871795, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 40.78947368421053, "Shot quality": 32.38636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9850467848363984, "unitPlayers": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 125 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -1.624389234025358, "index": 98.37561076597464, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.345864661654137, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.453276047261006, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.11170784103115, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.11170784103115, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.819548872180455, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.1578947368421053, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.624389234025358, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482765", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.154820597183994, "trialBefore6040": 1.154820597183994, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.154820597183994, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1139067438229058, "attemptProjection": 1.3106584267758674, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6904.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.506666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.9, "onNet": 0.452975275050278, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 673.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4110235225505443, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1122825852993865, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2122825852993866, "baseline": 0.9459459459459459, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 123, "beforeSOG": 1.0758008146199243, "adjustedSOG": 1.0758008146199243 } }, { "id": "8482768", "name": "Fedor Svechkov", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 13.706060606060607, "currentFiveTOI": 12.443939393939393, "ppShare": 0.004457652303120356, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.022727272727272728, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5099999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.13727272727272724, "priorTOI": 12.076666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.2585714285714286, "deploymentChange": 1.6293939393939407, "ppTOIChange": -0.23584415584415588, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10964680197098056, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 145.0, "goalExpected": 0.12302537844435667, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12302537844435667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11575877839057663, "goalProbability": 0.11575877839057663, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.122015200013922, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.821624254231097, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.443939393939393, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004457652303120356, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02231460218830204, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.898584003061615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.94475138121547, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.198571428571428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06403504482712007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.08853672985782, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.074854067818854, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.821624254231097, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. 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Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1449134694019614, "adjustedSOG": 1.1449134694019614, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.241522449003269, "afterPlayerForm": 1.241522449003269, "afterRecentDefense": 1.241522449003269, "afterRecentZones": 1.241522449003269, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.241522449003269, "adjusted": 1.241522449003269, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.074854067818854, "newChartFactor": 1.074854067818854, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1401006420267223, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1912634322115694, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1449134694019614, "adjustedSOG": 1.122015200013922, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0625, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 80, "goalExpected": 0.05854913358613864, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05854913358613864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.056868100191203114, "goalProbability": 0.056868100191203114, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863466482890237, "modelSOG": 1.122015200013922, "historyGames": 133, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 145.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09655172413793103, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10964680197098056, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.369026806526804, "btb": { "id": "8482768", "name": "Fedor Svechkov", "score": 48.369026806526804, "components": { "Goal model": 43.75, "SOG model": 35.79545454545455, "Unit attack": 58.97435897435897, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 44.31818181818182, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.492702180068673, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 92 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": 2.4951355939618054, "index": 102.4951355939618, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 27.6595744680851, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.02836879432624, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.48936170212766, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.531914893617022, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.035460992907802, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.4951355939618054, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482768", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0547963600748438, "trialBefore6040": 1.0547963600748438, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0547963600748438, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.333044898006538, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8213.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.443939393939393, "projectedAttempts": 2.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.4557822779605264, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02231460218830204, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.241522449003269, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.241522449003269, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 114, "beforeSOG": 1.122015200013922, "adjustedSOG": 1.122015200013922 } }, { "id": "8482775", "name": "Oliver Kapanen", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.5975609756097562, "currentTOI": 12.411111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0.4253285543608124, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 1.9777777777777779, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.499, "currentIXG": 0.16633333333333333, "priorTOI": 14.474593495934961, "priorPPTOI": 0.9410569105691058, "deploymentChange": -2.0634823848238497, "ppTOIChange": 1.036720867208672, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 3, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13832219582656963, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.2329664757163749, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2329664757163749, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20781986964946575, "goalProbability": 0.20781986964946575, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.6842306061166905, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.693053311793214, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4253285543608124, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.811190760653126, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0056146327014217, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 356, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 837, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0726303317535546, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1113253247467394, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.693053311793214, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 4, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 20.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.771359532968849, "adjustedSOG": 1.7186026593027455, "reductionPct": 2.978326685474264, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.79952790742214, "afterPlayerForm": 1.79952790742214, "afterRecentDefense": 1.711599784645301, "afterRecentZones": 1.79952790742214, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.711599784645301, "adjusted": 1.711599784645301, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9511382277461883, "oldChartFactor": 1.1113253247467394, "newChartFactor": 1.1113253247467394, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 30.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7721603040897252, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.08769733045277066, "afterPlayerForm": 0.08769733045277066, "afterRecentDefense": 0.08769733045277066, "afterRecentZones": 0.08769733045277066, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.08769733045277066, "adjusted": 0.08769733045277066, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7186026593027455, "adjustedSOG": 1.6842306061166905, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16176470588235295, "goalHistoryGoals": 22, "goalHistoryShots": 136, "goalExpected": 0.2827916356120777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2827916356120777, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2463231890924605, "goalProbability": 0.2463231890924605, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857193348295545, "modelSOG": 1.6842306061166905, "historyGames": 103, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 82, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14473684210526316, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13832219582656963, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.23224320492627, "btb": { "id": "8482775", "name": "Oliver Kapanen", "score": 60.23224320492627, "components": { "Goal model": 76.70454545454545, "SOG model": 69.88636363636364, "Unit attack": 71.7948717948718, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 64.20454545454545, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.36645962732919, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8165433337873185, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 40 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": 3.7108441582246456, "index": 103.71084415822465, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.269461077844312, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.391787852865697, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.51411462788708, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.164242942686057, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.651839178785288, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.008554319931566, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.7108441582246456, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482775", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.40299999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.10074999999999999, "priorTOI": 14.075925925925926, "priorPPTOI": 0.000925925925925926, "deploymentChange": -0.6717592592592592, "ppTOIChange": -0.000925925925925926, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 17.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05554421301295013, 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"Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8398120276117598, "adjustedSOG": 0.8395261019962041, "reductionPct": 0.034046382542141096, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7700570830566367, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7700570830566367, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7700570830566367, "afterRecentZones": 0.7695805403640439, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7695805403640439, "adjusted": 0.7695805403640439, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8553099695119077, "newChartFactor": 0.8543775619139101, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.916666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1142896007617493, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8395261019962041, "adjustedSOG": 0.8395261019962041, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 20, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776189821813018, "modelSOG": 0.8395261019962041, "historyGames": 46, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 18, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 40.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05554421301295013, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -4.8230010162697425, "index": 95.17699898373026, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.800000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.8230010162697425, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482807", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9463664593814808, "trialBefore6040": 0.9463664593814808, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9463664593814808, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8742779804624357, "attemptProjection": 0.6658361856508377, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3175.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.229166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.42073480803457924, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7700570830566367, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7700570830566367, "baseline": 0.9444444444444444, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 18, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8395261019962041, "adjustedSOG": 0.8395261019962041 } }, { "id": "8482953", "name": "Taylor Makar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": 8.183333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.183333333333334, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 0, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0, "currentIXG": 0, "priorTOI": 6.209722222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.9736111111111114, "ppTOIChange": 0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12018837236671961, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.027483074481189886, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.027483074481189886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02710885089845453, "goalProbability": 0.02710885089845453, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.22866666666666668, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9861472997848124, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 283, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9889074693422519, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9889074693422519, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.23333333333333336, "adjustedSOG": 0.23333333333333336, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9581040579450871, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8064301980128095, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.23333333333333336, "adjustedSOG": 0.22866666666666668, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860155843239, "modelSOG": 0.22866666666666668, "historyGames": 13, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12018837236671961, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.21853146853147, "btb": { "id": "8482953", "name": "Taylor Makar", "score": 40.21853146853147, "components": { "Goal model": 2.272727272727273, "SOG model": 0.0, "Unit attack": 69.23076923076923, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.40909090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7411101168110537, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 143 }, "performanceAdjustment": null, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482953", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0, "trialBefore6040": 0, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 491.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.183333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49570093457943926, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": 0.5833333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 177, "beforeSOG": 0.22866666666666668, "adjustedSOG": 0.22866666666666668 } }, { "id": "8482964", "name": "Arber Xhekaj", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 11.981666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.055, "ppShare": 0.003155818540433925, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.013333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.254, "currentIXG": 0.0254, "priorTOI": 11.422564102564102, "priorPPTOI": 0.008205128205128205, "deploymentChange": 0.5591025641025631, "ppTOIChange": 0.005128205128205127, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.766666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03638315955947748, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.022245135547436682, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022245135547436682, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021999537014804803, "goalProbability": 0.021999537014804803, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6114129673392268, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.055, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003155818540433925, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.013438527284681128, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.267091729883185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.01897435897436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017270259152612098, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1199985828632029, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.766666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Noah Dobson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6251971228248423, "adjustedSOG": 0.623890782999211, "reductionPct": 0.20894847048061882, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6317387944516604, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6317387944516604, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6317387944516604, "afterRecentZones": 0.6295615614089414, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6295615614089414, "adjusted": 0.6295615614089414, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1199985828632029, "newChartFactor": 1.1115168509591746, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4385627029109118, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.623890782999211, "adjustedSOG": 0.6114129673392268, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.022727272727272728, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 44, "goalExpected": 0.014390287024443981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.014390287024443981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.014287241720127448, "goalProbability": 0.014287241720127448, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785996145728182, "modelSOG": 0.6114129673392268, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 65, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017543859649122806, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03638315955947748, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.555851382500556, "btb": { "id": "8482964", "name": "Arber Xhekaj", "score": 36.555851382500556, "components": { "Goal model": 0.0, "SOG model": 4.545454545454546, "Unit attack": 75.86206896551724, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.113636363636363, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.87338748208313, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.890452083965834, "unitPlayers": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Noah Dobson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 158 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": 3.9999527621067585, "index": 103.99995276210676, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 79.28571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.404761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.03968253968254, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.9999527621067585, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482964", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5297513448461919, "trialBefore6040": 0.5297513448461919, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5297513448461919, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 0.6884775889033207, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 6033.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.055, "projectedAttempts": 1.7, "onNet": 0.3728639411637465, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.013438527284681128, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6317387944516604, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6317387944516604, "baseline": 0.6153846153846154, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 169, "beforeSOG": 0.6114129673392268, "adjustedSOG": 0.6114129673392268 } }, { "id": "8483395", "name": "Arshdeep Bains", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.6428571428571429, "currentTOI": 11.09, "currentFiveTOI": 10.23, "ppShare": 0.010343677010343676, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 28, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.05166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.968, "currentIXG": 0.0968, "priorTOI": 9.20595238095238, "priorPPTOI": 0.24702380952380953, "deploymentChange": 1.8840476190476192, "ppTOIChange": -0.19535714285714287, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 7.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.6 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12015413370736688, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.06848502761000491, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06999452128262258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06619255867195176, "goalProbability": 0.0676010717578345, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14085130858827455, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5699764585444801, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5190615835777126, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.23, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010343677010343676, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05471374151929707, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 0.9728135835273635, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 31, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2997, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.203874158538261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.66547619047619, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06546920042540551, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8627242322894497, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9333190031812828, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5190615835777126, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 7.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 11.6 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 24, "goalExpected": 0.0566093170478898, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0566093170478898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05503682173632882, "goalProbability": 0.05503682173632882, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286034564937243, "modelSOG": 0.5699764585444801, "historyGames": 51, "seasonGames": { "2024": 13, "2025": 28, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 32.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12015413370736688, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5750317766123846, "adjustedSOG": 0.5699764585444801, "reductionPct": 0.8791371665903935, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5298148657825457, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5277448476596125, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5234344250316383, "afterRecentZones": 0.5298148657825457, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5234344250316381, "adjusted": 0.5213893356693715, "playerFactor": 0.9960929406541364, "defenseFactor": 0.9767827670721562, "oldChartFactor": 0.9333190031812828, "newChartFactor": 0.9225764450509979, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9721254355400697, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8899434016563809, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5699764585444801, "adjustedSOG": 0.5699764585444801, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": -2.222699893957241, "index": 97.77730010604276, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.8095238095238098, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.722943722943725, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 52.294372294372295, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.35930735930736, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.35930735930736, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.222699893957241, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483395", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5514686508762073, "trialBefore6040": 0.5514686508762073, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5514686508762073, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.51, "attemptProjection": 0.5496297315650914, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6138.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.23, "projectedAttempts": 1.2000000000000002, "onNet": 0.49653301175761233, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 31.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05471374151929707, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5298148657825457, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5298148657825457, "baseline": 0.6428571428571429, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 28, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5699764585444801, "adjustedSOG": 0.5699764585444801 } }, { "id": "8483424", "name": "Owen Beck", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.7333333333333333, "currentTOI": 8.38888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 8.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 15, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.14200000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.04733333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.18888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 0.0033333333333333335, "deploymentChange": -0.8000000000000007, "ppTOIChange": -0.0033333333333333335, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11089053053371109, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.10449188232867328, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10449188232867328, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.099217890369693, "goalProbability": 0.099217890369693, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9422976139239175, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.619238476953909, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0070006503158677, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 579, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9445514445007603, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.018379258309032, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9619115994854092, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.619238476953909, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Owen Beck" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9623245956428013, "adjustedSOG": 0.9615281774733853, "reductionPct": 0.08275982688398242, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1149854371824466, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1149854371824466, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1136580735667532, "afterRecentZones": 1.1149854371824466, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1136580735667532, "adjusted": 1.1136580735667532, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9988095238095238, "oldChartFactor": 1.018379258309032, "newChartFactor": 1.018379258309032, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 24.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9944488764791916, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9615281774733853, "adjustedSOG": 0.9422976139239175, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "goalHistoryGoals": 1, "goalHistoryShots": 13, "goalExpected": 0.058171611426084006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.058171611426084006, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05651197978172736, "goalProbability": 0.05651197978172736, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861316316713886, "modelSOG": 0.9422976139239175, "historyGames": 30, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 15, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 25.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11089053053371109, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 46.29662004662005, "btb": { "id": "8483424", "name": "Owen Beck", "score": 46.29662004662005, "components": { "Goal model": 35.22727272727273, "SOG model": 23.863636363636363, "Unit attack": 64.1025641025641, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 41.47727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.616337889834962, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Jake Evans", "Owen Beck" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 104 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": 0.6126419436344008, "index": 100.6126419436344, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.42105263157895, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.421052631578945, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.6126419436344008, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483424", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4144070820365098, "trialBefore6040": 1.4144070820365098, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4144070820365098, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2825487993138789, "attemptProjection": 0.9474220750510142, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1497.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.316666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5233644859813085, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1149854371824466, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1149854371824466, "baseline": 0.7333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 135, "beforeSOG": 0.9422976139239175, "adjustedSOG": 0.9422976139239175 } }, { "id": "8483425", "name": "Lian Bichsel", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.54, "currentTOI": 15.819999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 13.998333333333331, "ppShare": 0.004369992716678805, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 0.02, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.21400000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.021400000000000002, "priorTOI": 15.666666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.011000000000000001, "deploymentChange": 0.15333333333333066, "ppTOIChange": 0.009, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0800388041085449, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 72.0, "goalExpected": 0.0464506917889583, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0464506917889583, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.045388370398788826, "goalProbability": 0.045388370398788826, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5803521467657616, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.571734730325039, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.998333333333331, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004369992716678805, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.022785870356882735, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9854029064527092, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.1523673741577944, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.495666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002277279383299951, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9114167294649584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9026729372100342, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.571734730325039, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 16.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.125, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 32, "goalExpected": 0.07103873352173953, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07103873352173953, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0685741859731357, "goalProbability": 0.0685741859731357, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057666743066697224, "modelSOG": 0.5803521467657616, "historyGames": 98, "seasonGames": { "2024": 38, "2025": 50, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 72.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0800388041085449, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5937913967830053, "adjustedSOG": 0.5803521467657616, "reductionPct": 2.2632948355354676, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6296523279716754, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6296523279716754, "afterRecentDefense": 0.607253577942936, "afterRecentZones": 0.6296523279716754, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.607253577942936, "adjusted": 0.607253577942936, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9402145713333651, "oldChartFactor": 0.9026729372100342, "newChartFactor": 0.8950057182575641, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.346301809022212, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7210385153594989, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5803521467657616, "adjustedSOG": 0.5803521467657616, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 32.849259529825495, "btb": { "id": "8483425", "name": "Lian Bichsel", "score": 32.849259529825495, "components": { "Goal model": 11.931818181818182, "SOG model": 2.840909090909091, "Unit attack": 31.03448275862069, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 3.409090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.843287147634975, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0626347448292455, "unitPlayers": [ "Lian Bichsel", "Nils Lundkvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 172 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": -3.244235426332196, "index": 96.7557645736678, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 72.90465631929047, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.405764966740576, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.738359201773836, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.244235426332196, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483425", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.5643132945298769, "trialBefore6040": 0.5643132945298769, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.5643132945298769, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.51, "attemptProjection": 0.7493046559433507, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 8399.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.998333333333331, "projectedAttempts": 2.1999999999999993, "onNet": 0.360859500805153, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.022785870356882735, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6296523279716754, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6296523279716754, "baseline": 0.54, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 172, "beforeSOG": 0.5803521467657616, "adjustedSOG": 0.5803521467657616 } }, { "id": "8483450", "name": "Ryan Greene", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 1.35, "currentTOI": 14.228333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.356666666666666, "ppShare": 0.03745173745173745, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.16166666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.99, "currentIXG": 0.099, "priorTOI": 16.761666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.2264583333333332, "deploymentChange": -2.533333333333333, "ppTOIChange": -1.0647916666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10996744205377168, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 117.0, "goalExpected": 0.10094118297984374, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10426059722744287, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09601379890313821, "goalProbability": 0.09900952879374535, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2995729890607132, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9179188048266659, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.398974912328028, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.356666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03745173745173745, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.195515093015093, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9872046446469672, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 97, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.603867747972552, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.115169016476983, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.358333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2834056437809052, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.89531144211239, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8660056103455649, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.398974912328028, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Andrew Mangiapane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9373137385500543, "adjustedSOG": 0.9179188048266659, "reductionPct": 2.0692040376353305, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5621895642500905, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5298646747111098, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5621895642500905, "afterRecentZones": 0.5621895642500905, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5621895642500905, "adjusted": 0.5298646747111098, "playerFactor": 0.9425017972681524, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8660056103455649, "newChartFactor": 0.8632112715462448, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.916666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6026825633383011, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1595237698035354, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9179188048266659, "adjustedSOG": 0.9179188048266659, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09734513274336283, "goalHistoryGoals": 11, "goalHistoryShots": 113, "goalExpected": 0.11058491255696375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11058491255696375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10468969612544067, "goalProbability": 0.10468969612544067, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862934925668454, "modelSOG": 0.9179188048266659, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 117.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09401709401709402, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10996744205377168, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.78379570934944, "btb": { "id": "8483450", "name": "Ryan Greene", "score": 42.78379570934944, "components": { "Goal model": 34.09090909090909, "SOG model": 21.59090909090909, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 26.704545454545453, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 43.581780538302276, "Goalie H2H": 47.735849056603776 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1583526824996295, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Andrew Mangiapane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 126 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": -4.466479655147836, "index": 95.53352034485216, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.229508196721312, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.16393442622951, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.081967213114755, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.278688524590164, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.590163934426231, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.466479655147836, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483450", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7392955077128806, "trialBefore6040": 0.7392955077128806, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7392955077128806, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.695, "attemptProjection": 0.6293791285001811, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7414.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.356666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.1, "onNet": 0.5321734792924936, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 97.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.195515093015093, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5621895642500905, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6621895642500906, "baseline": 1.35, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 139, "beforeSOG": 0.9179188048266659, "adjustedSOG": 0.9179188048266659 } }, { "id": "8483457", "name": "Lane Hutson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": 1.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 25.96, "currentFiveTOI": 20.325, "ppShare": 0.7451676528599606, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 21, "currentPPTOI": 3.1483333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.43, "currentIXG": 0.143, "priorTOI": 23.771747967479673, "priorPPTOI": 3.215040650406504, "deploymentChange": 2.188252032520328, "ppTOIChange": -0.06670731707317046, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 26.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07689758811711338, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 235.0, "goalExpected": 0.15092828636578481, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15092828636578481, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14009063632636737, "goalProbability": 0.14009063632636737, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.9627180781785283, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.132841328413284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.717310746426681, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.325, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7451676528599606, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1731722550953316, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1889, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.568042747565285, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.413832342900493, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.866666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6767058823529413, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1406975314621728, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0185653153423067, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0686781358135184, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.132841328413284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.717310746426681, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 26.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 23.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lane Hutson", "Mike Matheson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.0093206226902405, "adjustedSOG": 2.0027735491617635, "reductionPct": 0.32583518302375936, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6136909057170583, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6136909057170583, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6136909057170583, "afterRecentZones": 1.607645904153578, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.607645904153578, "adjusted": 1.607645904153578, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1406975314621728, "newChartFactor": 1.1321316701439779, "playerRecentAttempts": 21.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 102.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0726132736913527, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.32704671746586234, "afterPlayerForm": 0.32375063167568713, "afterRecentDefense": 0.32704671746586234, "afterRecentZones": 0.3254600243838248, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3254600243838248, "adjusted": 0.32217992981521454, "playerFactor": 0.9899216668012598, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0185653153423067, "newChartFactor": 1.0085623056996986, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9316126911063619, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0027735491617635, "adjustedSOG": 1.9627180781785283, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09655172413793103, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 145, "goalExpected": 0.17463627452785874, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17463627452785874, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1602375917943431, "goalProbability": 0.1602375917943431, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05760692019232981, "modelSOG": 1.9627180781785283, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 235.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0851063829787234, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07689758811711338, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.91068953549297, "btb": { "id": "8483457", "name": "Lane Hutson", "score": 54.91068953549297, "components": { "Goal model": 56.25, "SOG model": 77.8409090909091, "Unit attack": 68.96551724137932, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 46.59090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.13930789707187, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.713640532620818, "unitPlayers": [ "Lane Hutson", "Mike Matheson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 62 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 125, "fitPct": 4.689917715405755, "index": 104.68991771540576, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.80521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.368695652173914, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.16, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.897391304347828, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.24, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.528695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": 0.6188438447435516, "index": 100.61884384474355, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 28.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.523809523809522, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.689917715405755, "zonePPFit": 0.6188438447435516, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483457", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.2023755237338776, "trialBefore6040": 2.2023755237338776, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.2023755237338776, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.333132856450123, "attemptProjection": 2.3483423899157185, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 12195.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.325, "projectedAttempts": 3.9, "onNet": 0.3818189219996743, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1889.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1731722550953316, "projectedAttempts": 0.7055226824457593, "onNet": 0.42064932446057673, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6136909057170583, "ppAdjusted": 0.32704671746586234, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.3407376231829207, "baseline": 1.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 40, "beforeSOG": 1.9627180781785283, "adjustedSOG": 1.9627180781785283 } }, { "id": "8483466", "name": "Kevin Korchinski", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 0.5384615384615384, "currentTOI": 11.35, "currentFiveTOI": 10.533333333333333, "ppShare": 0.09448818897637795, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 2, "currentPPTOI": 0.2, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.038, "currentIXG": 0.038, "priorTOI": 13.637179487179488, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.287179487179488, "ppTOIChange": 0.2, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05509131008799042, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.06669671889184452, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06889001633915015, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06452112861251098, "goalProbability": 0.06657066359159819, 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.298201180805151, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483471", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.42352386208983805, "trialBefore6040": 0.42352386208983805, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.42352386208983805, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4038046120774445, "attemptProjection": 0.5440518387832075, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 4828.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.940740740740742, "projectedAttempts": 1.2222222222222223, "onNet": 0.4829931514236411, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.002192964619764132, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.473928225430326, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.473928225430326, "baseline": 1.08, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7163569352581955, "adjustedSOG": 0.7163569352581955 } }, { "id": "8483476", "name": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 0.7692307692307693, "currentTOI": 14.520833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.952777777777778, "ppShare": 0.4771354616048318, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 2.3041666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.4040000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.20033333333333336, "priorTOI": 11.678205128205128, "priorPPTOI": 1.521794871794872, "deploymentChange": 2.8426282051282055, "ppTOIChange": 0.7823717948717948, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 6.583333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.5 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.3333333333333335, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13834177528102945, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.1523704145826689, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15572884466196216, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1413298421220935, "goalProbability": 0.14420878873207435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2878946609980837, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1014056619783972, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.60144085521729, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.189873417721518, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.952777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4771354616048318, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5238477854472245, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 0.9518782659777293, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1659, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.772596279800891, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.0328559393428813, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.787179487179488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.40332425307484293, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9510695933688825, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0442006080702366, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0411536979561846, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.60144085521729, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.189873417721518, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 6.583333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Liam Ohgren", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19230769230769232, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 26, "goalExpected": 0.17573215582295845, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17573215582295845, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16115736763520289, "goalProbability": 0.16115736763520289, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858000494402655, "modelSOG": 1.1014056619783972, "historyGames": 49, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 13, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 58.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15517241379310345, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13834177528102945, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1219577633126132, "adjustedSOG": 1.1014056619783972, "reductionPct": 1.8318070435677902, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7843527300557849, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7500992278320909, "afterRecentDefense": 0.784352730055785, "afterRecentZones": 0.7843527300557849, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7843527300557849, "adjusted": 0.7500992278320909, "playerFactor": 0.9563289564616448, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9510695933688825, "newChartFactor": 0.9425028795160787, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.583333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7102613480055021, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1814765849576092, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5727563626447245, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5727563626447245, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5727563626447245, "afterRecentZones": 0.5727563626447245, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5727563626447245, "adjusted": 0.5727563626447245, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0442006080702366, "newChartFactor": 1.0442006080702366, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0663911845730027, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1014056619783972, "adjustedSOG": 1.1014056619783972, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 45.00581874266085, "btb": { "id": "8483476", "name": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "score": 45.00581874266085, "components": { "Goal model": 56.81818181818182, "SOG model": 34.09090909090909, "Unit attack": 10.256410256410257, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.73684210526316, "Shot quality": 70.45454545454545, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 46.42857142857143, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.926304614118001, "unitPlayers": [ "Liam Ohgren", "Filip Chytil", "Jonathan Lekkerimaki" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 116 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": -1.6310135543705826, "index": 98.36898644562942, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.461538461538463, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.153846153846157, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.92307692307692, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 1.47335360234122, "index": 101.47335360234122, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.36363636363636, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 61.81818181818181, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.6310135543705826, "zonePPFit": 1.47335360234122, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483476", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4308169555919696, "trialBefore6040": 1.4308169555919696, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4308169555919696, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4444105792987945, "attemptProjection": 1.2698076061022243, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8606.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.952777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5135513561147558, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1659.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5238477854472245, "projectedAttempts": 0.9127840092033361, "onNet": 0.5400048520135857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7843527300557849, "ppAdjusted": 0.5727563626447245, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3571090927005094, "baseline": 0.7692307692307693, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 117, "beforeSOG": 1.1014056619783972, "adjustedSOG": 1.1014056619783972 } }, { "id": "8483478", "name": "Rieger Lorenz", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.65, "currentFiveTOI": 8.608333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0012106537530266344, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2, "currentPPTOI": 0.005555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.545, "currentIXG": 0.09083333333333334, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12607439643818416, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.06391412191534376, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06391412191534376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06191444293749908, "goalProbability": 0.06191444293749908, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.5069556049525222, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.323330106485963, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0012106537530266344, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005492500672585419, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 1.0299758500211624, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1652, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.323330106485963, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5360835900944971, "adjustedSOG": 0.5173016377066554, "reductionPct": 3.5035492104003807, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5360835900944971, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5173016377066554, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5360835900944971, "afterRecentZones": 0.5360835900944971, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5360835900944971, "adjusted": 0.5173016377066554, "playerFactor": 0.9649645078959962, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 44.483333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.725693143499438, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2026153206815349, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5173016377066554, "adjustedSOG": 0.5069556049525222, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12597993368282157, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 2, "goalExpected": 0.054064829383468356, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.054064829383468356, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05262931294663034, "goalProbability": 0.05262931294663034, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859588436694785, "modelSOG": 0.5069556049525222, "historyGames": 6, "seasonGames": { "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12607439643818416, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 14.312561190883429, "index": 114.31256119088343, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 42.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.312561190883429, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483478", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.3932804799541776, "trialBefore6040": 0.3932804799541776, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.3932804799541776, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3833333333333332, "attemptProjection": 0.688833846855661, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3099.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.608333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.4618111504995166, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005492500672585419, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5360835900944971, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5360835900944971, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5069556049525222, "adjustedSOG": 0.5069556049525222 } }, { "id": "8483493", "name": "Frank Nazar", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 2.1076923076923078, "currentTOI": 18.177083333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 13.975, "ppShare": 0.32687978388113464, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 14, "currentPPTOI": 1.5125, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.6359999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.32949999999999996, "priorTOI": 18.317179487179487, "priorPPTOI": 3.0446153846153847, "deploymentChange": -0.14009615384615515, "ppTOIChange": -1.5321153846153848, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12532266548842955, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.22796690973459807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23546351900561557, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20384939576562625, "goalProbability": 0.2097955100714517, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5946114305825451, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.8190397470890467, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7567084078711988, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.958677685950414, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.975, "Current_PP_Share": 0.32687978388113464, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7064610535794689, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.75, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9872046446469672, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 726, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2221, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127132257324256, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.701869631126831, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.408205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7035389296895571, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.89531144211239, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9153749811650451, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7567084078711988, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.958677685950414, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Teuvo Teravainen", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8198076101948915, "adjustedSOG": 1.8190397470890467, "reductionPct": 0.042194740891454696, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7504803832076512, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7504803832076512, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7504803832076512, "afterRecentZones": 0.7504803832076512, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7504803832076512, "adjusted": 0.7504803832076512, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9153749811650451, "newChartFactor": 0.9123820543216355, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0125091979396614, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1595237698035354, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12740409532229593, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12740409532229593, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1261243234792216, "afterRecentZones": 0.12740409532229593, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1261243234792216, "adjusted": 0.1261243234792216, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.283333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.6613272311212814, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8190397470890467, "adjustedSOG": 1.8190397470890467, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11920529801324503, "goalHistoryGoals": 18, "goalHistoryShots": 151, "goalExpected": 0.23332407819146514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23332407819146514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20810310457902215, "goalProbability": 0.20810310457902215, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860351597042907, "modelSOG": 1.8190397470890467, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 65, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12396694214876033, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12532266548842955, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.346949341657584, "btb": { "id": "8483493", "name": "Frank Nazar", "score": 57.346949341657584, "components": { "Goal model": 75.56818181818181, "SOG model": 74.43181818181819, "Unit attack": 12.820512820512821, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.578947368421055, "Shot quality": 84.0909090909091, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 53.941710463449596, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; 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"historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 132.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10717136219599795, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2059741616780117, "adjustedSOG": 1.1912228787865788, "reductionPct": 1.223183991845045, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8320208476192537, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8320208476192537, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8216739203395588, "afterRecentZones": 0.8320208476192537, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8216739203395587, "adjusted": 0.8216739203395587, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9767827670721562, "oldChartFactor": 0.9404971033275262, "newChartFactor": 0.9334389324486602, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.95, 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excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2232558056745033, "trialBefore6040": 1.2232558056745033, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2232558056745033, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2800067571271727, "attemptProjection": 1.0946089812355189, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 8618.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.959259259259259, "projectedAttempts": 2.7777777777777777, "onNet": 0.3730917874396135, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 616.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3056435241575315, "projectedAttempts": 0.3815192116044735, "onNet": 0.4523964432877901, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8892317852568511, "ppAdjusted": 0.2980760839244947, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1873078691813457, "baseline": 1.509433962264151, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 94, "beforeSOG": 1.2748453176060164, "adjustedSOG": 1.2748453176060164 } }, { "id": "8483513", "name": "Reid Schaefer", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.8297872340425532, "currentTOI": 10.641666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.28888888888889, "ppShare": 0.004515805318615153, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.024999999999999998, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.332, "currentIXG": 0.05533333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.641489361702128, "priorPPTOI": 0.00921985815602837, "deploymentChange": 1.0001773049645397, "ppTOIChange": 0.015780141843971626, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13096569230376895, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.11233792146873527, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11233792146873527, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10625780820813323, "goalProbability": 0.10625780820813323, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8577660262977314, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.859611231101512, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.28888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004515805318615153, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.020714888473292892, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 0.9785521780458758, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1993, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.246244675285853, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.490070921985817, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0022832918299705834, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9228114880288792, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0255822423050684, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9464190751175348, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.859611231101512, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.88784152944691, "adjustedSOG": 0.8577660262977314, "reductionPct": 3.3874855085810673, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9265443930498145, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9190880289019644, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8837428455820142, "afterRecentZones": 0.9263199286952494, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8835287503169376, "adjusted": 0.8764185544678501, "playerFactor": 0.9919525020022983, "defenseFactor": 0.9538051843075595, "oldChartFactor": 1.0255822423050684, "newChartFactor": 1.0249984671159373, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 50.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9412721404792763, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7837643119632204, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8577660262977314, "adjustedSOG": 0.8577660262977314, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13181329648395518, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 43, "goalExpected": 0.10167919412701641, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10167919412701641, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09668070467422162, "goalProbability": 0.09668070467422162, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285905969174273, "modelSOG": 0.8577660262977314, "historyGames": 53, "seasonGames": { "2025": 47, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13096569230376895, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 0.8527414101689459, "index": 100.85274141016895, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.381180223285483, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.472089314194577, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.140350877192986, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.173843700159491, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.676236044657095, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.156299840510367, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8527414101689459, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483513", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.848488524452215, "trialBefore6040": 0.848488524452215, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.848488524452215, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7886825625979458, "attemptProjection": 1.0644062235016833, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.28888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.4727785195074915, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.020714888473292892, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9265443930498145, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9265443930498145, "baseline": 0.8297872340425532, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 47, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8577660262977314, "adjustedSOG": 0.8577660262977314 } }, { "id": "8483515", "name": "Juraj Slafkovsky", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.207317073170732, "currentTOI": 18.58833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.686666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7092702169625247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 27, "currentPPTOI": 2.9966666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.581, "currentIXG": 0.3581, "priorTOI": 18.536991869918698, "priorPPTOI": 3.1792682926829268, "deploymentChange": 0.05134146341463364, "ppTOIChange": -0.18260162601626018, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14252589265707316, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.322661407656252, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.322661407656252, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27578097212332786, "goalProbability": 0.27578097212332786, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.2638792267212593, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.822211397954213, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.024471635150167, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.686666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7092702169625247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.020309007232084, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 0.9764003632370333, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1798, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2535, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.748316934230968, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.586881472957423, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.129268292682926, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6691764705882354, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9445514445007603, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1571682674416819, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9343931789579273, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0930049585424828, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9803647793269298, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.822211397954213, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.024471635150167, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020800", "date": "20250128", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020482", "date": "20241214", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 16.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.487612955069097, "adjustedSOG": 2.48395789633669, "reductionPct": 0.14693036249706637, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1589474241884257, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1542297426613914, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1575677248739158, "afterRecentZones": 1.1589474241884257, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1575677248739158, "adjusted": 1.1528556596344137, "playerFactor": 0.9959293394777265, "defenseFactor": 0.9988095238095238, "oldChartFactor": 1.1571682674416819, "newChartFactor": 1.1571682674416819, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9748338081671415, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9944488764791916, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.015529452146248, "afterPlayerForm": 1.015529452146248, "afterRecentDefense": 1.015529452146248, "afterRecentZones": 1.015529452146248, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.015529452146248, "adjusted": 1.015529452146248, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9343931789579273, "newChartFactor": 0.9343931789579273, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0036682615629984, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.48395789633669, "adjustedSOG": 2.4342787384099562, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15609756097560976, "goalHistoryGoals": 32, "goalHistoryShots": 205, "goalExpected": 0.3800119488336273, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3800119488336273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3161467620850281, "goalProbability": 0.3161467620850281, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853918661769262, "modelSOG": 2.2638792267212593, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 341.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1466275659824047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14252589265707316, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.00743075030016, "btb": { "id": "8483515", "name": "Juraj Slafkovsky", "score": 66.00743075030016, "components": { "Goal model": 90.9090909090909, "SOG model": 89.20454545454545, "Unit attack": 71.7948717948718, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 90.9090909090909, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.68589174800355, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8165433337873185, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 24 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 192, "fitPct": 5.238942248056063, "index": 105.23894224805606, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.791666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.958333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.458333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.291666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -2.186894034735758, "index": 97.81310596526424, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.536294691224267, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.296858071505955, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.00108342361864, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.122426868905741, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.043336944745395, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.238942248056063, "zonePPFit": -2.186894034735758, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483515", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.767200189694914, "trialBefore6040": 2.767200189694914, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.767200189694914, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7892148083605717, "attemptProjection": 2.5597389443087755, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8212.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.686666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5135513561147558, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 1798.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.020309007232084, "projectedAttempts": 1.511834319526627, "onNet": 0.5600044787817714, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1589474241884257, "ppAdjusted": 1.015529452146248, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6744768763346736, "baseline": 2.207317073170732, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 20, "beforeSOG": 2.4342787384099562, "adjustedSOG": 2.2638792267212593 } }, { "id": "8483525", "name": "Danila Yurov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.095890410958904, "currentTOI": 14.406944444444443, "currentFiveTOI": 11.405555555555557, "ppShare": 0.3303805774278215, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 18, "currentPPTOI": 1.3986111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.012, "currentIXG": 0.16766666666666666, "priorTOI": 13.297488584474886, "priorPPTOI": 0.5883561643835616, "deploymentChange": 1.1094558599695574, "ppTOIChange": 0.8102549467275496, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14573919503795504, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 98.0, "goalExpected": 0.20876037859199179, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20876037859199179, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18841031339139594, "goalProbability": 0.18841031339139594, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.43242439714055, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.698977106673161, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.149950347567031, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.405555555555557, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3303805774278215, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.5368055555555555, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.498872439122193, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1455039842325345, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.15, "Position_Factor": 0.9795287364370838, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1007, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3048, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.082478823004904, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.587892898719441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.29041095890411, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11151093373269858, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.023319689788884, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.698977106673161, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.149950347567031, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4712548374278596, "adjustedSOG": 1.461657548102602, "reductionPct": 0.6523199843499694, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.236252416016872, "afterPlayerForm": 1.236252416016872, "afterRecentDefense": 1.236252416016872, "afterRecentZones": 1.236252416016872, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.236252416016872, "adjusted": 1.236252416016872, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.470334146505226, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1454411634625494, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.63333333333333, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.23524537239029136, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2226435774102919, "afterRecentDefense": 0.23165959989600848, "afterRecentZones": 0.23524537239029136, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23165959989600848, "adjusted": 0.21924989018152874, "playerFactor": 0.9464312736443884, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5871720116618075, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.461657548102602, "adjustedSOG": 1.43242439714055, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14792996469707234, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 95, "goalExpected": 0.22954809852756594, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22954809852756594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20510726545175811, "goalProbability": 0.20510726545175811, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856360617515103, "modelSOG": 1.43242439714055, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2025": 73, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 98.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16326530612244897, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14573919503795504, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 56.26183479944922, "btb": { "id": "8483525", "name": "Danila Yurov", "score": 56.26183479944922, "components": { "Goal model": 69.88636363636364, "SOG model": 57.38636363636363, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 53.97727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.49689440993789, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.677017264173463, "unitPlayers": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 55 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": 13.624523736796135, "index": 113.62452373679614, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.94388864723793, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.74641148325359, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.963027403218796, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.598521096128753, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.621574597651152, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.126576772509786, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": 12.058963720012741, "index": 112.05896372001274, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 13.624523736796135, "zonePPFit": 12.058963720012741, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483525", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.6667601952196853, "trialBefore6040": 1.6667601952196853, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.6667601952196853, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7012398840769902, "attemptProjection": 1.7417556927373365, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8212.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.405555555555557, "projectedAttempts": 2.166666666666667, "onNet": 0.5060866083795015, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1007.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.498872439122193, "projectedAttempts": 0.4465359798775153, "onNet": 0.5141275227719236, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.236252416016872, "ppAdjusted": 0.23524537239029136, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7214977884071634, "baseline": 1.095890410958904, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 76, "beforeSOG": 1.43242439714055, "adjustedSOG": 1.43242439714055 } }, { "id": "8483678", "name": "Elias Nils Pettersson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.6571428571428571, "currentTOI": 18.6875, "currentFiveTOI": 15.779166666666667, "ppShare": 0.015818234109864826, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 12, "currentPPTOI": 0.07638888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.969, "currentIXG": 0.08075, "priorTOI": 14.978809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.03761904761904762, "deploymentChange": 3.708690476190476, "ppTOIChange": 0.03876984126984126, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07214478817606398, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 77.0, "goalExpected": 0.06093843608321201, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06228159365935624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05911883767739337, "goalProbability": 0.06038174100986483, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1262903332471456, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8446685841601793, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8518616318986005, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.779166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015818234109864826, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.08367186751030581, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.6346512397846276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.78481012658228, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.664047619047619, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009970249317796696, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0186339658834007, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9311476972129163, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.948498671635189, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8518616318986005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Filip Hronek" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10344827586206896, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 58, "goalExpected": 0.07665082026716676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07665082026716676, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07378678796997082, "goalProbability": 0.07378678796997082, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769627507163324, "modelSOG": 0.8446685841601793, "historyGames": 110, "seasonGames": { "2024": 28, "2025": 70, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 77.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07214478817606398, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8716150003753478, "adjustedSOG": 0.8446685841601793, "reductionPct": 3.0915503064500305, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7645964291970084, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7199501742903245, "afterRecentDefense": 0.764315591774956, "afterRecentZones": 0.7645964291970084, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.764315591774956, "adjusted": 0.7196857355050607, "playerFactor": 0.941608078194176, "defenseFactor": 0.9996326984912194, "oldChartFactor": 0.9311476972129163, "newChartFactor": 0.9311476972129163, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.671842146761985, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8446685841601793, "adjustedSOG": 0.8446685841601793, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 35.23039769450939, "btb": { "id": "8483678", "name": "Elias Nils Pettersson", "score": 35.23039769450939, "components": { "Goal model": 19.318181818181817, "SOG model": 16.477272727272727, "Unit attack": 24.137931034482758, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.886363636363637, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 58.59213250517598, "Goalie H2H": 49.23076923076923 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.014117085417743, "unitPlayers": [ "Elias Nils Pettersson", "Filip Hronek" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 165 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": -2.2950767595694543, "index": 97.70492324043055, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.39240506329114, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.025316455696203, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.518987341772153, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.050632911392405, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0126582278481013, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.2950767595694543, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483678", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9688857163464375, "trialBefore6040": 0.9688857163464375, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9688857163464375, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9613740037263917, "attemptProjection": 1.067818854667625, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 11361.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.779166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.36685929187305083, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 55.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.08367186751030581, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7645964291970084, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0145964291970084, "baseline": 0.6571428571428571, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 148, "beforeSOG": 0.8446685841601793, "adjustedSOG": 0.8446685841601793 } }, { "id": "8483686", "name": "Adam Engstrom", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.7333333333333333, "currentTOI": 11.393333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.793333333333333, "ppShare": 0.022256331542594012, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 15, "currentTotalSOG": 5, "currentPPTOI": 0.09666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.308, "currentIXG": 0.0616, "priorTOI": 13.052222222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.23222222222222222, "deploymentChange": -1.658888888888887, "ppTOIChange": -0.13555555555555554, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04980685045473418, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.044401861383675675, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044401861383675675, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0434305281082892, "goalProbability": 0.0434305281082892, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.8914810107101491, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.558987029030265, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.793333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022256331542594012, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09477487848554615, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1303, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.500707213578501, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.568888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.048878431372549026, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.114079317159295, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.558987029030265, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.909674500724642, "adjustedSOG": 0.909674500724642, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0272352789855144, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0272352789855144, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0272352789855144, "afterRecentZones": 1.0272352789855144, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0272352789855144, "adjusted": 1.0272352789855144, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.114079317159295, "newChartFactor": 1.114079317159295, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1818088097288943, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.48333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.909674500724642, "adjustedSOG": 0.8914810107101491, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.8026439053098358, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483686", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0595026896923836, "trialBefore6040": 1.0595026896923836, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0595026896923836, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1499999999999997, "attemptProjection": 0.904470557971029, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3238.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.793333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4163647342995169, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 29.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09477487848554615, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0272352789855144, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0272352789855144, "baseline": 0.7333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8914810107101491, "adjustedSOG": 0.8914810107101491 } }, { "id": "8483766", "name": "David Spacek", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0, "currentTOI": 13.030555555555557, "currentFiveTOI": 11.263888888888888, "ppShare": 0.1162349968414403, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 0.5111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.122, "currentIXG": 0.02033333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.75, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.280555555555557, "ppTOIChange": 0.5111111111111112, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 403, "sogAllowedPerGame": 33.583333333333336, "mostAllowedRank": 1, "fiveSogAllowed60": 32.526423457211045, "pkSogAllowed60": 67.14490674318508, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 90, "D": 98, "C": 118, "R": 97 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.833333333333334, "L": 7.5, "R": 8.083333333333334, "D": 8.166666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 37.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; 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chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.18279094590537392, "afterPlayerForm": 0.18279094590537392, "afterRecentDefense": 0.18000472001973145, "afterRecentZones": 0.18279094590537392, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.18000472001973145, "adjusted": 0.18000472001973145, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9847573091115527, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.066666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8862047043865227, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7287197720662, "adjustedSOG": 0.714145376624876, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.053410576534768, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 8, "goalExpected": 0.07678372093204612, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07678372093204612, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07390987414237142, "goalProbability": 0.07390987414237142, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776536824277933, "modelSOG": 0.714145376624876, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05348645207664753, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 8 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483766", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 72, "goalsAgainst": 4, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.3436596062330877, "gsax": 1.0589999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020496", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3539, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.034 }, { "gameId": "2024020828", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 16, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.907 }, { "gameId": "2024020583", "date": "20241229", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3578, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.118 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5128010067490176, "trialBefore6040": 1.5128010067490176, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5128010067490176, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4290769138498025, "attemptProjection": 1.0062886352643299, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 4055.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.263888888888888, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.44969806763285025, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0913969524726732, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0250111519778018 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 184.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5273355794202288, "projectedAttempts": 0.3439145083175405, "onNet": 0.42263483642793986, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0040577232719063 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0348918286516924, "ppAdjusted": 0.18279094590537392, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2176827745570662, "baseline": 0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.714145376624876, "adjustedSOG": 0.714145376624876 } }, { "id": "8483768", "name": "Victor Mancini", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": 12.775, "currentFiveTOI": 11.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 24, "currentTotalSOG": 0, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.105, "currentIXG": 0.02625, "priorTOI": 13.734722222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.09791666666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.9597222222222221, "ppTOIChange": -0.09791666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.916666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05515122069601041, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.021034392015299455, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02149801571178484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020814712165042697, "goalProbability": 0.021268580447557618, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.04538682825149208, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.3813948585334044, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1378, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.2777602024675736, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 25.53191489361702, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.170833333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02595104450597399, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0186339658834007, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.931769365661127, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9491319242320544, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021273", "date": "20250412", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021000", "date": "20250307", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.916666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 14, "goalExpected": 0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0, "goalProbability": 0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776322118137468, "modelSOG": 0.3813948585334044, "historyGames": 59, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 24, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 41.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04878048780487805, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05515122069601041, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.3814492617373816, "adjustedSOG": 0.3813948585334044, "reductionPct": 0.0142622386341551, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.24685988067341375, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24685988067341375, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24676920866678498, "afterRecentZones": 0.24685988067341375, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24676920866678498, "adjusted": 0.24676920866678498, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9996326984912194, "oldChartFactor": 0.931769365661127, "newChartFactor": 0.931769365661127, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.3813948585334044, "adjustedSOG": 0.3813948585334044, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -2.274354477962433, "index": 97.72564552203757, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.274354477962433, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483768", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0, "trialBefore6040": 0, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0, "attemptProjection": 0.4937197613468275, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2744.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.5000000000000002, "onNet": 0.3568193581780538, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.24685988067341375, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.24685988067341375, "baseline": 0.5833333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 24, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.3813948585334044, "adjustedSOG": 0.3813948585334044 } }, { "id": "8483771", "name": "Sandis Vilmanis", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 0.7894736842105263, "currentTOI": 12.963333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.26, "ppShare": 0.04062850729517396, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.30166666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.795, "currentIXG": 0.1795, "priorTOI": 10.397368421052633, "priorPPTOI": 0.2578947368421053, "deploymentChange": 2.5659649122807, "ppTOIChange": 0.04377192982456135, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12587035402569383, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.13243283400792694, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13243283400792694, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12403823302850611, "goalProbability": 0.12403823302850611, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0521368199289685, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.383360522022839, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.26, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04062850729517396, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.24031146481651533, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.993836554207879, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 181, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4455, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.806408544726302, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.855263157894736, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05044601397131527, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.383360522022839, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Sandis Vilmanis", "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11538461538461539, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 26, "goalExpected": 0.1091406019956204, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1091406019956204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10339565572471725, "goalProbability": 0.10339565572471725, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859664607237423, "modelSOG": 1.0521368199289685, "historyGames": 29, "seasonGames": { "2025": 19, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 26.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11538461538461539, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12587035402569383, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0986070048453158, "adjustedSOG": 1.073608999927519, "reductionPct": 2.2754274101243865, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2476693271678796, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2065926746279163, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2476693271678796, "afterRecentZones": 1.2476693271678796, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2476693271678796, "adjusted": 1.2065926746279163, "playerFactor": 0.9670772923197493, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7869437048307341, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1587167116210157, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.057026558100629204, "afterPlayerForm": 0.057026558100629204, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05643986911093115, "afterRecentZones": 0.057026558100629204, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05643986911093115, "adjusted": 0.05643986911093115, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0584795321637426, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.073608999927519, "adjustedSOG": 1.0521368199289685, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 48.70287321374278, "btb": { "id": "8483771", "name": "Sandis Vilmanis", "score": 48.70287321374278, "components": { "Goal model": 49.43181818181818, "SOG model": 29.545454545454547, "Unit attack": 38.46153846153846, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 60.22727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.80237154150198, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.23715981065027, "unitPlayers": [ "Sandis Vilmanis", "Carter Verhaeghe", "Sam Reinhart" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 89 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": 8.961180747396725, "index": 108.96118074739672, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.10185185185185, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.851851851851848, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.101851851851855, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.712962962962962, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 2 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.961180747396725, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483771", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.1620812005063013, "trialBefore6040": 1.1620812005063013, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.1620812005063013, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.265, "attemptProjection": 1.3443917705370179, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7356.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.26, "projectedAttempts": 2.2, "onNet": 0.4992860406671237, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 181.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.24031146481651533, "projectedAttempts": 0.23898377716559532, "onNet": 0.47925077586443654, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2476693271678796, "ppAdjusted": 0.057026558100629204, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3046958852685089, "baseline": 0.7894736842105263, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 125, "beforeSOG": 1.0521368199289685, "adjustedSOG": 1.0521368199289685 } }, { "id": "8484136", "name": "Max Sasson", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 0.9393939393939394, "currentTOI": 13.180555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 11.105555555555556, "ppShare": 0.012079378774805867, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 0.05833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.4869999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.12391666666666666, "priorTOI": 11.718939393939394, "priorPPTOI": 0.40277777777777773, "deploymentChange": 1.4616161616161616, "ppTOIChange": -0.3444444444444444, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15314830001209376, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 108.0, "goalExpected": 0.16655089802354914, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1702218832813343, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15342027339601833, "goalProbability": 0.15652235775527146, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3102084359253132, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.087513854286316, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.852926463231616, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.105555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012079378774805867, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06389488064423353, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.031239781375825, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 42, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.731053881446983, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.5141065830721, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.952777777777778, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10674897740046037, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0811611374407584, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9361359154098834, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0121137711036952, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.852926463231616, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020402", "date": "20241203", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 10.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Linus Karlsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.21052631578947367, "goalHistoryGoals": 16, "goalHistoryShots": 76, "goalExpected": 0.20122861859185928, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20122861859185928, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18227453706144153, "goalProbability": 0.18227453706144153, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854846402515502, "modelSOG": 1.087513854286316, "historyGames": 107, "seasonGames": { "2024": 29, "2025": 66, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 108.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17592592592592593, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15314830001209376, "goalieFactor": 1.022041221640643, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1231016333953756, "adjustedSOG": 1.087513854286316, "reductionPct": 3.1687051332540683, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0789067627296665, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0789067627296665, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0216872029117923, "afterRecentZones": 1.0766961162638982, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0195937975479004, "adjusted": 1.0195937975479004, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.946965241303051, "oldChartFactor": 0.9361359154098834, "newChartFactor": 0.9323610909790636, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4758213362864525, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7485994496286027, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.087513854286316, "adjustedSOG": 1.087513854286316, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 40.77999278154558, "btb": { "id": "8484136", "name": "Max Sasson", "score": 40.77999278154558, "components": { "Goal model": 59.65909090909091, "SOG model": 32.95454545454545, "Unit attack": 5.128205128205129, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.79545454545455, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 38.37622005323868, "Goalie H2H": 49.23076923076923 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.8717051162642075, "unitPlayers": [ "Paul Cotter", "Max Sasson", "Linus Karlsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 142 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": -2.128802819670554, "index": 97.87119718032945, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.636363636363633, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.363636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.454545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.128802819670554, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484136", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2221751234046603, "trialBefore6040": 1.2221751234046603, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2221751234046603, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.263123252029003, "attemptProjection": 1.2280236067636632, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7996.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.105555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.49311002867746295, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 42.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.06389488064423353, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0789067627296665, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.245573429396333, "baseline": 0.9393939393939394, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 119, "beforeSOG": 1.087513854286316, "adjustedSOG": 1.087513854286316 } }, { "id": "8484144", "name": "Connor Bedard", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 3.2794117647058822, "currentTOI": 20.254166666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.9, "ppShare": 0.7938237965485921, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 9, "currentPPTOI": 3.6416666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859281304528827, "modelSOG": 2.5450629038189505, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 55.0, "historyShots": 427.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1288056206088993, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12876523966703762, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.97297775505523, "btb": { "id": "8484144", "name": "Connor Bedard", "score": 62.97297775505523, "components": { "Goal model": 91.47727272727273, "SOG model": 93.18181818181819, "Unit attack": 35.8974358974359, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 43.421052631578945, "Shot quality": 84.6590909090909, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 40.328305235137535, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2297114319422207, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 31 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 225, "fitPct": -7.465747732066291, "index": 92.53425226793371, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.688888888888888, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.71111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.622222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.311111111111114, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": -19.874932273447513, "index": 80.12506772655249, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.470588235294119, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.23529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.465747732066291, "zonePPFit": -19.874932273447513, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484144", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.213124295080806, "trialBefore6040": 2.213124295080806, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.213124295080806, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0836388407233097, "attemptProjection": 2.6871301472269202, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3576.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.9, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.5168874076638966, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 874.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.144121046982082, "projectedAttempts": 2.560440921476344, "onNet": 0.4792714195331491, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8340015056486515, "ppAdjusted": 0.8013829883264634, "other": 0.75 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.385384493975115, "baseline": 3.2794117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 13, "beforeSOG": 2.7366267782999465, "adjustedSOG": 2.5450629038189505 } }, { "id": "8484149", "name": "Gavin Brindley", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1.1071428571428572, "currentTOI": 8.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.133333333333333, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 56, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.22999999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.057499999999999996, "priorTOI": 9.551488095238096, "priorPPTOI": 0.8979166666666666, "deploymentChange": -1.4181547619047628, "ppTOIChange": -0.8979166666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.516666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1143117813427982, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.10607525917061984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10607525917061984, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10064303933004422, "goalProbability": 0.10064303933004422, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.92794686535871, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.532786885245901, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0087968275180677, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1191, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.08853672985782, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.06992962532293, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.532786885245901, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 12.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 6, "toi": 15.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9468845564884796, "adjustedSOG": 0.9468845564884796, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8400456893855612, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8400456893855612, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8400456893855612, "afterRecentZones": 0.8400456893855612, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8400456893855612, "adjusted": 0.8400456893855612, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.06992962532293, "newChartFactor": 1.06992962532293, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 32.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1912634322115694, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9468845564884796, "adjustedSOG": 0.92794686535871, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09230769230769231, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 65, "goalExpected": 0.08089045685102718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08089045685102718, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07770528302124168, "goalProbability": 0.07770528302124168, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861443921561702, "modelSOG": 0.92794686535871, "historyGames": 60, "seasonGames": { "2025": 56, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 65.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09230769230769231, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1143117813427982, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": 2.3309875107643308, "index": 102.33098751076433, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.7027027027027026, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.27027027027027, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.5945945945946, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.486486486486488, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5405405405405406, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3309875107643308, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484149", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.7910972700561327, "trialBefore6040": 0.7910972700561327, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.7910972700561327, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8624999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.8175913787711228, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1952.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.133333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5082603970864662, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8400456893855612, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8400456893855612, "baseline": 1.1071428571428572, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.92794686535871, "adjustedSOG": 0.92794686535871 } }, { "id": "8484185", "name": "Nick Lardis", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.3902439024390243, "currentTOI": 10.952777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 9.555555555555555, "ppShare": 0.27871054398925454, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 6, "currentPPTOI": 1.152777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6, "currentIXG": 0.09999999999999999, "priorTOI": 12.671138211382113, "priorPPTOI": 1.4028455284552845, "deploymentChange": -1.7183604336043352, "ppTOIChange": -0.25006775067750664, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14023119761059946, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.14818597516001375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15305901728929752, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1377292609091322, "goalProbability": 0.14192092118423227, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41916602751000676, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0567261614031387, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.555555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27871054398925454, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.454995726234813, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0137098693522728, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 415, 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"newChartFactor": 0.8745897345466476, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0843183609141056, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9976422045387563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.14441475641792162, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13276537761020463, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1433712439090837, "afterRecentZones": 0.14441475641792162, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1433712439090837, "adjusted": 0.13180604121194966, "playerFactor": 0.9193338748984565, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.516666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0567261614031387, "adjustedSOG": 1.0567261614031387, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15873015873015872, "goalHistoryGoals": 10, "goalHistoryShots": 63, "goalExpected": 0.19407893016680233, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19407893016680233, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17640710462158013, "goalProbability": 0.17640710462158013, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285768521052771, "modelSOG": 1.0567261614031387, "historyGames": 47, "seasonGames": { "2025": 41, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 63.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15873015873015872, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14023119761059946, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -4.049866201449888, "index": 95.95013379855011, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.32394366197183, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.26056338028169, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.204225352112676, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.133802816901408, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.950704225352114, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": -30.094048457487844, "index": 69.90595154251216, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.62380594716919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8182137877847424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.27096521835847, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.467197393274205, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 92.94117647058823, "opponentDeltaPct": -33.24209835760395, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 48.538511264162366, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.049866201449888, "zonePPFit": -30.094048457487844, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484185", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.990241547550128, "trialBefore6040": 0.990241547550128, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.990241547550128, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.903081659205487, "attemptProjection": 0.7948144256006637, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3440.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.555555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.5048313004910502, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 415.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.454995726234813, "projectedAttempts": 0.21036082788937058, "onNet": 0.5735017170710093, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7045332859851537, "ppAdjusted": 0.14441475641792162, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8489480424030753, "baseline": 1.3902439024390243, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 41, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0567261614031387, "adjustedSOG": 1.0567261614031387 } }, { "id": "8484197", "name": "Oliver Moore", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.14, "currentTOI": 11.735, "currentFiveTOI": 10.645, "ppShare": 0.2362934362934363, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 1.02, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.233, "currentIXG": 0.1233, "priorTOI": 12.878666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 1.0090000000000001, "deploymentChange": -1.1436666666666664, "ppTOIChange": 0.010999999999999899, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 15.75 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, 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"goalExpected": 0.12400176808066163, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12807952131817443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11662172100268188, "goalProbability": 0.12021658517400169, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3594864171319809, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1237549630738815, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.763738844527947, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.645, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2362934362934363, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2335591435591435, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0137098693522728, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 612, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 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true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1254586216494364, "adjustedSOG": 1.1237549630738815, "reductionPct": 0.15137460789612645, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9852194132213059, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9852194132213059, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9849863197016389, "afterRecentZones": 0.9852194132213059, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9849863197016389, "adjusted": 0.9849863197016389, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9995095033721644, "oldChartFactor": 0.8129449613187006, "newChartFactor": 0.8129449613187006, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.15, 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1, "goalHistoryGoals": 7, "goalHistoryShots": 70, "goalExpected": 0.10926069052873844, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10926069052873844, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10350332116038702, "goalProbability": 0.10350332116038702, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862264450841532, "modelSOG": 1.1237549630738815, "historyGames": 69, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 50, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11034591361578629, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 78, "fitPct": -6.235167956043313, "index": 93.76483204395669, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.784313725490193, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.7420814479638, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.99698340874811, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.26395173453997, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.21266968325792, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. 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Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2253596606455612, "trialBefore6040": 1.2253596606455612, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2253596606455612, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.12, "attemptProjection": 1.1115287388314554, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6387.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.645, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5255006675567423, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 612.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2335591435591435, "projectedAttempts": 0.12093717093717093, "onNet": 0.5538938739337543, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9852194132213059, "ppAdjusted": 0.030544956194421845, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1157643694157278, "baseline": 1.14, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1237549630738815, "adjustedSOG": 1.1237549630738815 } }, { "id": "8484220", "name": "David Reinbacher", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 9.15, "currentFiveTOI": 9.15, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 1, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.023, "currentIXG": 0.023, "priorTOI": 13.141666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -3.991666666666667, "ppTOIChange": 0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05553853899315934, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.06545066093117013, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06545066093117013, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06335474117551734, "goalProbability": 0.06335474117551734, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1784728607864832, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0057640982165286, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 335, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0732856066314995, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.106391308135135, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.5463769378378345, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484220", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.059502689692384, "trialBefore6040": 1.059502689692384, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.059502689692384, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1500000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.8765196074987833, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 549.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.15, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4034977703455965, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0132598037493916, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0132598037493916, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1784728607864832, "adjustedSOG": 1.1784728607864832 } }, { "id": "8484221", "name": "Calum Ritchie", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 1.2307692307692308, "currentTOI": 12.175, "currentFiveTOI": 10.716666666666667, "ppShare": 0.23240589198036007, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 7, "currentPPTOI": 1.1833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.862, "currentIXG": 0.10775, "priorTOI": 13.466153846153846, "priorPPTOI": 1.968974358974359, "deploymentChange": -1.2911538461538452, "ppTOIChange": -0.7856410256410256, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 9.35 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1406931504610524, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 98.0, "goalExpected": 0.13518003369604917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13518003369604917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1264413724581958, "goalProbability": 0.1264413724581958, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9608146043575205, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.898911353032659, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.716666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23240589198036007, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3206464811783962, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.048163338808703, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 568, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2444, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.735256134309083, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.376220862091419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.721538461538461, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.429579165535318, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.056723933649289, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.898911353032659, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 5, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 9.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16091954022988506, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 87, "goalExpected": 0.1817032905381944, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1817032905381944, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16615128548188596, "goalProbability": 0.16615128548188596, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857243791288375, "modelSOG": 0.9608146043575205, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2024": 7, "2025": 65, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 98.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15306122448979592, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1406931504610524, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9926377397153777, "adjustedSOG": 0.9804230656709393, "reductionPct": 1.2305268635001476, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7754450157961355, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7550872257220715, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7754450157961355, "afterRecentZones": 0.7754450157961355, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7754450157961355, "adjusted": 0.7550872257220715, "playerFactor": 0.9737469586374696, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8066308243727599, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0520611851253758, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.058438396550006724, "afterPlayerForm": 0.058438396550006724, "afterRecentDefense": 0.058438396550006724, "afterRecentZones": 0.058438396550006724, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.058438396550006724, "adjusted": 0.058438396550006724, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.283333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4416243654822334, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9804230656709393, "adjustedSOG": 0.9608146043575205, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": -8.591650829910378, "index": 91.40834917008962, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.51668584579977, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.51783659378596, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.995397008055235, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.42807825086306, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.087456846950516, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": -10.712144406714799, "index": 89.2878555932852, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.137931034482759, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.448275862068968, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 69.6551724137931, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.591650829910378, "zonePPFit": -10.712144406714799, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484221", "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8113778649318858, "trialBefore6040": 0.8113778649318858, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8113778649318858, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.74375, "attemptProjection": 0.9240168246922844, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5144.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.716666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.875, "onNet": 0.4994243421052632, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 568.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3206464811783962, "projectedAttempts": 0.2790098199672668, "onNet": 0.5053271875472268, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7754450157961355, "ppAdjusted": 0.058438396550006724, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8338834123461423, "baseline": 1.2307692307692308, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9608146043575205, "adjustedSOG": 0.9608146043575205 } }, { "id": "8484240", "name": "Tom Willander", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.8428571428571429, "currentTOI": 20.497222222222224, "currentFiveTOI": 18.291666666666668, "ppShare": 0.21311475409836064, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 8, "currentPPTOI": 1.0291666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.31300000000000006, "currentIXG": 0.026083333333333337, "priorTOI": 16.98952380952381, "priorPPTOI": 1.1285714285714286, "deploymentChange": 3.5076984126984136, "ppTOIChange": -0.099404761904762, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 22.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020451", "date": "20251206", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 2, "toi": 13.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020190", "date": "20251101", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 3.3333333333333335, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06450831578506788, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 67.0, "goalExpected": 0.0475557070213176, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048603892900051945, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0464426481867002, "goalProbability": 0.04744162988671411, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09989817000139109, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.737202738012354, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1867881548974943, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.291666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21311475409836064, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 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0.737202738012354, "reductionPct": 4.942384102250907, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7123587692996929, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6496750400296653, "afterRecentDefense": 0.712097118848936, "afterRecentZones": 0.7123587692996929, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.712097118848936, "adjusted": 0.6494364134072452, "playerFactor": 0.9120053939510692, "defenseFactor": 0.9996326984912194, "oldChartFactor": 0.9352480620725951, "newChartFactor": 0.9352480620725951, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 89.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5093135675153078, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.01829069332210868, "afterPlayerForm": 0.017330054708582718, "afterRecentDefense": 0.018290693322108677, "afterRecentZones": 0.01829069332210868, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.018290693322108677, "adjusted": 0.017330054708582714, 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1583979309134946, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484240", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.6390095256412778, "trialBefore6040": 0.6390095256412778, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.6390095256412778, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.635116961702515, "attemptProjection": 0.8261819635410881, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 13170.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.291666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 2.416666666666667, "onNet": 0.35420106402494955, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 741.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.12728825136612, "projectedAttempts": 0.0912784009203336, "onNet": 0.4113139508677034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7123587692996929, "ppAdjusted": 0.01829069332210868, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7306494626218015, "baseline": 0.8428571428571429, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 160, "beforeSOG": 0.737202738012354, "adjustedSOG": 0.737202738012354 } }, { "id": "8484241", "name": "Matthew Wood", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.4507042253521127, "currentTOI": 14.8, "currentFiveTOI": 11.438333333333334, "ppShare": 0.41825754946199234, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 2.0083333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.571, "currentIXG": 0.2571, "priorTOI": 12.321126760563379, "priorPPTOI": 1.5262910798122065, "deploymentChange": 2.4788732394366217, "ppTOIChange": 0.48204225352112684, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 11.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 12.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 8.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484242", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1, "trialBefore6040": 1, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1, "attemptProjection": 1.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 629.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.483333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5092516447368421, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 119.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.336890625, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0, "adjustedSOG": 1.0 } }, { "id": "8484258", "name": "Sam Malinski", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 16.695, "currentFiveTOI": 16.151666666666667, "ppShare": 0.03475765306122449, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 0.18166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5599999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.055999999999999994, "priorTOI": 17.616260162601627, "priorPPTOI": 0.21890243902439024, "deploymentChange": -0.9212601626016266, "ppTOIChange": -0.03723577235772357, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04816439741345298, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.07349924485800308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07349924485800308, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07086315257849123, "goalProbability": 0.07086315257849123, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.526007773481948, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.0862656072644725, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.151666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03475765306122449, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.17399365143784787, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 1.0007297954319563, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 109, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3136, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.102453643004308, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.3426183844011144, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.277439024390244, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03996092911808883, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.053051996985682, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1468170127031971, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.0862656072644725, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 5 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6, "goals": 0, "attempts": 9, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 1, "attempts": 6, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 15.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5609736342945024, "adjustedSOG": 1.5571507892672938, "reductionPct": 0.2449013194855465, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2682893904908372, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2682893904908372, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2682893904908372, "afterRecentZones": 1.261917982112156, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.261917982112156, "adjusted": 1.261917982112156, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1468170127031971, "newChartFactor": 1.1352646972509421, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3291364933070005, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1231227529904995, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.26666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5571507892672938, "adjustedSOG": 1.526007773481948, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04597701149425287, "goalHistoryGoals": 8, "goalHistoryShots": 174, "goalExpected": 0.07894768730526636, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07894768730526636, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0759117352720298, "goalProbability": 0.0759117352720298, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578411499124666, "modelSOG": 1.526007773481948, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04482758620689655, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04816439741345298, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.02961344003323, "btb": { "id": "8484258", "name": "Sam Malinski", "score": 48.02961344003323, "components": { "Goal model": 26.136363636363637, "SOG model": 61.36363636363637, "Unit attack": 79.3103448275862, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 15.909090909090908, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 68.08143547273983, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.946194171280972, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 95 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 241, "fitPct": 4.893900423439902, "index": 104.8939004234399, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.08626337628303, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 167 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.801485040401834, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.485695566717625, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.6556016597510377, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.4730290456431545, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.49792531120331956, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.893900423439902, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484258", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.150997632556772, "trialBefore6040": 1.150997632556772, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.150997632556772, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2650000000000003, "attemptProjection": 1.2715787809816743, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 9691.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.151666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 3.1, "onNet": 0.38249239577741995, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 109.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.17399365143784787, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41954022988505746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2682893904908372, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2682893904908372, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 69, "beforeSOG": 1.526007773481948, "adjustedSOG": 1.526007773481948 } }, { "id": "8484304", "name": "Uvis Balinskis", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.42857142857142855, "priorSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "currentTOI": 14.373809523809523, "currentFiveTOI": 12.657142857142857, "ppShare": 0.15948136142625607, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 54, "currentTotalSOG": 3, "currentPPTOI": 1.1714285714285713, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 25 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.076, "currentIXG": 0.010857142857142857, "priorTOI": 16.371296296296297, "priorPPTOI": 1.1734567901234567, "deploymentChange": -1.9974867724867735, "ppTOIChange": -0.002028218694885453, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 303, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.3, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.905376562658805, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.93075204765451, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 96, "D": 78, "R": 58, "L": 71 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.6, "L": 7.1, "R": 5.8, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.166666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05661365898051257, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.04190486330089964, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04190486330089964, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041038991382225956, "goalProbability": 0.041038991382225956, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.7401899833982474, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0316027088036117, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.657142857142857, "Current_PP_Share": 0.15948136142625607, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.914848484848485, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9433080889936644, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0629891308915924, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.02848130610831, "Position_Factor": 0.9938072179486223, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 492, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3085, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.744068641258423, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.309310889005786, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.244753086419754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22953635407280623, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0260738507912586, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1176575798076231, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9140915895087599, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1467992167792462, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9401261118805906, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0316027088036117, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 3 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020826", "date": "20250201", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020313", "date": "20241121", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.7 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07352941176470588, "goalHistoryGoals": 5, "goalHistoryShots": 68, "goalExpected": 0.07939094863550382, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07939094863550382, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0763212570962104, "goalProbability": 0.0763212570962104, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776164993913782, "modelSOG": 0.7401899833982474, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 54, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 161.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.055900621118012424, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05661365898051257, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7643543356050551, "adjustedSOG": 0.755295901426783, "reductionPct": 1.1851092819538223, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4128969582323615, "afterPlayerForm": 0.40312657599726603, "afterRecentDefense": 0.40863242144203527, "afterRecentZones": 0.412184978157061, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.40792779493319864, "adjusted": 0.39827499802745336, "playerFactor": 0.9763369963369963, "defenseFactor": 0.9896716681842775, "oldChartFactor": 1.1176575798076231, "newChartFactor": 1.1144194369759224, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8458233890214798, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9511853602859086, "defenseRecentMinutes": 239.3, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.04621211962791529, "afterPlayerForm": 0.04621211962791529, "afterRecentDefense": 0.04573668953570343, "afterRecentZones": 0.04621211962791529, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.04573668953570343, "adjusted": 0.04573668953570343, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9897120042092883, "oldChartFactor": 0.9140915895087599, "newChartFactor": 0.9084340296495832, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1415313225058004, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9271507939117, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.683333333333334, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.755295901426783, "adjustedSOG": 0.7401899833982474, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": 3.921919326920772, "index": 103.92191932692077, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.1015937659413026, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.029304357450883, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.109459849500453, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.848484848484848, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.97157601808469, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.40081996936957864, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.394273230293066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": -2.8636136830413363, "index": 97.13638631695866, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 89.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0321438445270843, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.45626265630186, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.9189710977587, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.95305200161249, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.9836116718135344, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -47.78319199283641, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.921919326920772, "zonePPFit": -2.8636136830413363, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484304", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 61, "goalsAgainst": 7, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.5573122529644268, "gsax": -1.4729999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3540, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.645 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.882 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.45274554466328454, "trialBefore6040": 0.45274554466328454, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.45274554466328454, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.49148537861967695, "attemptProjection": 0.4267327771008767, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 5316.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.657142857142857, "projectedAttempts": 0.7142857142857143, "onNet": 0.4178524374176548, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.059607844174974, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0570788882175581 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 492.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9433080889936644, "projectedAttempts": 0.23007514365699133, "onNet": 0.40340406719717065, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9385524562584785, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0610048266270875 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4128969582323615, "ppAdjusted": 0.04621211962791529, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4591090778602768, "baseline": 1.2222222222222223, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 54, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7401899833982474, "adjustedSOG": 0.7401899833982474 } }, { "id": "8484390", "name": "Roman Kantserov", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 18.598333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.506666666666666, "ppShare": 0.759073359073359, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 16, "currentPPTOI": 3.2766666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.179, "currentIXG": 0.21789999999999998, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13671146290767774, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.19270917490724404, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19904634633664875, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17527821094387974, "goalProbability": 0.18048808892215523, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.520987797827549, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.409605096811684, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.376838235294118, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.506666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.759073359073359, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9627079677079675, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0137098693522728, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1966, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9893295110686415, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8250123107992116, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.79976379847347, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.376838235294118, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.413363439079348, "adjustedSOG": 1.409605096811684, "reductionPct": 0.2659147791534866, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0745367220999111, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0745367220999111, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0742806648481147, "afterRecentZones": 1.0745367220999111, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0742806648481147, "adjusted": 1.0742806648481147, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9995095033721644, "oldChartFactor": 0.8250123107992116, "newChartFactor": 0.8246059721799421, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.26666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1423571616064396, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9976422045387563, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.33882671697943667, "afterPlayerForm": 0.33882671697943667, "afterRecentDefense": 0.33532443196356926, "afterRecentZones": 0.33882671697943667, 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Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.5791587619460132, "trialBefore6040": 1.5791587619460132, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.5791587619460132, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.413389785889786, "attemptProjection": 1.4133370922689097, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8704.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.506666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.2, "onNet": 0.5247923156801662, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1966.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9627079677079675, "projectedAttempts": 0.7256230256230256, "onNet": 0.5580104923325263, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0745367220999111, "ppAdjusted": 0.33882671697943667, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.413363439079348, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 81, "beforeSOG": 1.409605096811684, "adjustedSOG": 1.409605096811684 } }, { "id": "8484403", "name": "Florian Xhekaj", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1, "priorSOG": 0.8, "currentTOI": 7.6, "currentFiveTOI": 7.583333333333333, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 5, "currentTotalSOG": 2, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.081, "currentIXG": 0.0405, "priorTOI": 9.596666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -1.996666666666668, "ppTOIChange": 0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12132115432004209, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.11749788327929687, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11749788327929687, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11085760618943083, "goalProbability": 0.11085760618943083, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.968486361161224, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.912087912087912, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.583333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 1.0070006503158677, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.001736714136853, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.596666666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787068004459308, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1969931616834582, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.912087912087912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.566438722781939, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484403", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.0608053115273823, "trialBefore6040": 1.0608053115273823, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.0608053115273823, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.0775046298000817, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 910.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.583333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.49601938386985117, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5649717514124294, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1137523149000408, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1137523149000408, "baseline": 0.8, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 5, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.968486361161224, "adjustedSOG": 0.968486361161224 } }, { "id": "8484783", "name": "Artyom Levshunov", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.2388059701492538, "currentTOI": 20.348333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 17.891666666666666, "ppShare": 0.04247104247104247, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 13, "currentPPTOI": 0.18333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.107, "currentIXG": 0.11069999999999999, "priorTOI": 19.591293532338305, "priorPPTOI": 2.646268656716418, "deploymentChange": 0.7570398009950274, "ppTOIChange": -2.462935323383085, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.6 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7272727272727275, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04047972366090096, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 117.0, "goalExpected": 0.04637694744589134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04790203656776925, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04531797059551809, "goalProbability": 0.04677283609165531, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14548654961372143, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.1456834002719851, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.024219841639497, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.891666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04247104247104247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2217181467181467, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 1.0229700460547688, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 110, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.441956816189945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.414551607445008, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.610696517412936, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6114903799753608, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0221767682204759, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8746438946510817, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.894040669578213, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.024219841639497, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020823", "date": "20260125", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020001", "date": "20251007", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 16.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1561026596918575, "adjustedSOG": 1.1456834002719851, "reductionPct": 0.9012399835365392, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9782848562266897, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9635742701731002, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9782848562266897, "afterRecentZones": 0.9760413359420861, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9760413359420861, "adjusted": 0.961364485970579, "playerFactor": 0.9849628807397375, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8746438946510817, "newChartFactor": 0.870985818484032, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 88.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9160025257265731, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1142896007617493, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.022682263160237047, "afterPlayerForm": 0.022667175180307843, "afterRecentDefense": 0.02225200282560916, "afterRecentZones": 0.022682263160237047, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.02225200282560916, "adjusted": 0.022237201049893678, "playerFactor": 0.9993348115299335, "defenseFactor": 0.9810309786290571, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8783137766188613, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1456834002719851, "adjustedSOG": 1.1456834002719851, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.031578947368421054, "goalHistoryGoals": 3, "goalHistoryShots": 95, "goalExpected": 0.0361807352280741, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0361807352280741, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.035534035246183246, "goalProbability": 0.035534035246183246, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578410003441551, "modelSOG": 1.1456834002719851, "historyGames": 95, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 117.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02564102564102564, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04047972366090096, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.170467747931966, "btb": { "id": "8484783", "name": "Artyom Levshunov", "score": 37.170467747931966, "components": { "Goal model": 11.363636363636363, "SOG model": 36.93181818181818, "Unit attack": 3.4482758620689653, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.681818181818183, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 48.80952380952381, "Goalie H2H": 47.45283018867924 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7051559701368173, "unitPlayers": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 154 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -4.1785368449639435, "index": 95.82146315503606, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 47.95212765957447, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.2557163851303272, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.728723404255319, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.3380364210527773, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.154255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.224390279851619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.175531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.333176644624473, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.81382978723404, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.782027787763184, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.175531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379348785782554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.1785368449639435, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484783", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481033", "goalieName": "Akira Schmid", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 2.936378466557912, "gsax": -0.08300000000000018, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020661", "date": "20260104", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CHI", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3678, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.917 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.235639751257777, "trialBefore6040": 1.235639751257777, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.235639751257777, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1728488034938558, "attemptProjection": 1.0290854352799976, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10735.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.891666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.1999999999999997, "onNet": 0.4441928341384863, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8808318394032564, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0266629675327994 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 110.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2217181467181467, "projectedAttempts": 0.12093717093717092, "onNet": 0.4113139508677034, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8892615963761935, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0255423470564822 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9782848562266897, "ppAdjusted": 0.022682263160237047, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1009671193869268, "baseline": 1.2388059701492538, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 112, "beforeSOG": 1.1456834002719851, "adjustedSOG": 1.1456834002719851 } }, { "id": "8484798", "name": "Zeev Buium", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.9605263157894737, "currentTOI": 20.65972222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 18.40138888888889, "ppShare": 0.2999712395743457, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 10, "currentPPTOI": 1.448611111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.738, "currentIXG": 0.0615, "priorTOI": 19.576535087719297, "priorPPTOI": 2.2353070175438594, "deploymentChange": 1.083187134502925, "ppTOIChange": -0.7866959064327483, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 23.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.583333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.076259737273276, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.82608695652174, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 92, "C": 130, "R": 40, "L": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 3.75, "R": 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"goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06113753597674741, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05806503966047448, "goalProbability": 0.059306148369253096, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12411087087786168, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.9298524189774875, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.1737489621858255, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.40138888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2999712395743457, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.289583333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5867228693317992, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9448001484460762, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9970820644131946, "Position_Factor": 1.0145153872365456, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1043, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3477, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 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0.9982588814632432, "defenseRecentMinutes": 236.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0848023054025039, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0848023054025039, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0848023054025039, "afterRecentZones": 0.0848023054025039, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0848023054025039, "adjusted": 0.0848023054025039, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.203521126760563, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0514285714285714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.25, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9298524189774875, "adjustedSOG": 0.9298524189774875, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 28.83232785521115, "btb": { "id": "8484798", "name": "Zeev Buium", "score": 28.83232785521115, "components": { "Goal model": 18.181818181818183, "SOG model": 22.727272727272727, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 27.63157894736842, "Shot quality": 13.636363636363637, "Goalie": 24.285714285714285, "Team H2H": 50.02823263692829, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.5927892578859715, "unitPlayers": [ "Zeev Buium", "Tom Willander" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 180 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T18:36:26.072Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": -1.9851955873115799, "index": 98.01480441268842, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.18181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.2042494654044447, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.863636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0172931352912684, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1648197815368206, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.324304784446383, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.954545454545455, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6978498986356527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.237570483771876, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": 14.353762119965737, "index": 114.35376211996574, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 84, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.519448615225855, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.575521212213374, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4221991817368007, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.198105241183427, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.611197902256066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -23.181600809572387, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.9851955873115799, "zonePPFit": 14.353762119965737, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484798", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475717", "goalieName": "Calvin Pickard", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 133, "goalsAgainst": 13, "savePct": 0.9022556390977443, "gaa": 2.6173032828141602, "gsax": -1.157, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020147", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3703, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.548 }, { "gameId": "2025020035", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 15, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3554, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.515 }, { "gameId": "2016020726", "date": "20170125", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 41, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3516, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.784 }, { "gameId": "2016020564", "date": "20170102", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "VAN", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3508, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.587 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8056761923079444, "trialBefore6040": 0.8056761923079444, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8056761923079444, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.805312224172452, "attemptProjection": 1.013977582725153, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 13249.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.40138888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.3833134802461783, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9372769055236763, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9841763564738226 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1043.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5867228693317992, "projectedAttempts": 0.45639200460166807, "onNet": 0.3814002089864159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9567339096309458, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0184214396523505 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6581759313796318, "ppAdjusted": 0.0848023054025039, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9096449034488024, "baseline": 0.9605263157894737, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 137, "beforeSOG": 0.9298524189774875, "adjustedSOG": 0.9298524189774875 } }, { "id": "8484829", "name": "Justin Hryckowian", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.0246913580246915, "currentTOI": 15.035, "currentFiveTOI": 12.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.2869628550619082, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 11, "currentPPTOI": 1.3133333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9949999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.09949999999999999, "priorTOI": 13.299588477366255, "priorPPTOI": 0.5967078189300412, "deploymentChange": 1.7354115226337452, "ppTOIChange": 0.716625514403292, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13633509343380446, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.13771427300186553, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13771427300186553, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12865237627833073, "goalProbability": 0.12865237627833073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.0101161009489514, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.329744279946164, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2869628550619082, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4962721534352996, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 1.0308132832453814, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 788, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.8433468485071876, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.448275862068965, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.164609053497943, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12353367399120573, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0288182831661092, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9444013563684437, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9716173820787272, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.329744279946164, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Justin Hryckowian", "Arttu Hyry", "Jamie Benn" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15217391304347827, "goalHistoryGoals": 14, "goalHistoryShots": 92, "goalExpected": 0.18113938241211894, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18113938241211894, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16568093881216092, "goalProbability": 0.16568093881216092, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858013406459476, "modelSOG": 1.0101161009489514, "historyGames": 96, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 97.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14432989690721648, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13633509343380446, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0107987872265949, "adjustedSOG": 1.0101161009489514, "reductionPct": 0.06753928539195986, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.001537073361197, "afterPlayerForm": 1.001537073361197, "afterRecentDefense": 1.001537073361197, "afterRecentZones": 1.000399262898458, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.000399262898458, "adjusted": 1.000399262898458, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9444013563684437, "newChartFactor": 0.9423905578341067, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.180131398454985, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.153661624575198, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.116666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0101161009489514, "adjustedSOG": 1.0101161009489514, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 47.03527974695023, "btb": { "id": "8484829", "name": "Justin Hryckowian", "score": 47.03527974695023, "components": { "Goal model": 51.13636363636363, "SOG model": 27.272727272727273, "Unit attack": 43.58974358974359, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.84210526315789, "Shot quality": 27.272727272727273, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.82608695652174, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.277546498909346, "unitPlayers": [ "Justin Hryckowian", "Arttu Hyry", "Jamie Benn" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 99 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:12:12.115Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": -1.8532881210518752, "index": 98.14671187894812, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.233644859813083, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.607476635514015, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.81308411214953, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.738317757009343, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.607476635514018, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8532881210518752, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484829", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.082250721531648, "trialBefore6040": 1.082250721531648, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.082250721531648, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0687791202866, "attemptProjection": 0.934295026435794, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7430.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.383333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9000000000000001, "onNet": 0.5209941293917812, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 788.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4962721534352996, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5080058224163028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.001537073361197, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.001537073361197, "baseline": 1.0246913580246915, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 129, "beforeSOG": 1.0101161009489514, "adjustedSOG": 1.0101161009489514 } }, { "id": "8484938", "name": "Arttu Hyry", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.25, "currentTOI": 14.331666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.656666666666666, "ppShare": 0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 20, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.2640000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.22640000000000002, "priorTOI": 11.775833333333335, "priorPPTOI": 0.04666666666666667, "deploymentChange": 2.5558333333333323, "ppTOIChange": -0.04666666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13006326349276698, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.18364274147284615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18364274147284615, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1677669269155398, "goalProbability": 0.1677669269155398, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.411949358652367, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.6325421790105805, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.656666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.214166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9544544179756099, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Position_Factor": 0.9845569359260292, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2746, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.962025316455696, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.48, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009661185262484641, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9082642180094787, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9201308808213665, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9084730998921925, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.6325421790105805, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 9.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Justin Hryckowian", "Arttu Hyry", "Jamie Benn" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15, "goalHistoryGoals": 6, "goalHistoryShots": 40, "goalExpected": 0.22620564552982905, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22620564552982905, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20244592862937044, "goalProbability": 0.20244592862937044, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859173206451213, "modelSOG": 1.411949358652367, "historyGames": 35, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 20, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 45.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13006326349276698, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4316682554249422, "adjustedSOG": 1.411949358652367, "reductionPct": 1.3773370121084594, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9527804257082371, "afterPlayerForm": 0.946030377537814, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9264793136186764, "afterRecentZones": 0.9527804257082371, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9264793136186764, "adjusted": 0.9199155977539453, "playerFactor": 0.9929154210264076, "defenseFactor": 0.9538803877813323, "oldChartFactor": 0.9201308808213665, "newChartFactor": 0.9201308808213665, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9523420479302832, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7848038262416315, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.11666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9864854151607714, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.900856981577462, "defenseRecentMinutes": 24.983333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.411949358652367, "adjustedSOG": 1.411949358652367, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 54.79463923757402, "btb": { "id": "8484938", "name": "Arttu Hyry", "score": 54.79463923757402, "components": { "Goal model": 64.20454545454545, "SOG model": 55.11363636363637, "Unit attack": 43.58974358974359, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 75.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.927159796725014, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.277546498909346, "unitPlayers": [ "Justin Hryckowian", "Arttu Hyry", "Jamie Benn" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 64 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": -2.6623039726211175, "index": 97.33769602737888, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.006649217916575, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.476190476190478, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.03675917218986058, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.36216034357593685, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.476190476190476, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.776803477926805, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.380952380952381, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.651204515830642, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.047619047619047, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.46958058926191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.6623039726211175, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484938", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.4457432455188153, "trialBefore6040": 1.4457432455188153, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.4457432455188153, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.365, "attemptProjection": 1.740560851416474, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6994.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.656666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.6999999999999997, "onNet": 0.4475660030758716, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.947655916332193, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9959715387547519 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5255402750491159, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9482648786331049, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0048563177456327 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9527804257082371, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.6 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.552780425708237, "baseline": 1.25, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 20, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 80, "beforeSOG": 1.411949358652367, "adjustedSOG": 1.411949358652367 } }, { "id": "8484984", "name": "Ivan Demidov", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2, "priorSOG": 1.548780487804878, "currentTOI": 15.616666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.608333333333333, "ppShare": 0.5714285714285714, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T23:41:46.160Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 1.7666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.445, "currentIXG": 0.2225, "priorTOI": 15.497560975609755, "priorPPTOI": 2.8579268292682927, "deploymentChange": 0.11910569105691238, "ppTOIChange": -1.091260162601626, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 300, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.398569375271585, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.12621359223301, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 108, "L": 58, "R": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.8, "L": 5.8, "R": 4.9, "D": 8.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14345872621555777, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.32309598986572907, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32309598986572907, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2760956364498963, "goalProbability": 0.2760956364498963, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.2521877782481665, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5714285714285714, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.258333333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.433333333333333, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0534306121794834, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0491994177657331, "Position_Factor": 0.9764003632370333, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 212, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 371, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.085366491690064, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.9368465969703434, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.654674796747967, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6015401069518718, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9445514445007603, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0191456136140014, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9626354614957188, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "away", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "venue": "home", "sog": 4, "goals": 0, "attempts": 5, "toi": 19.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.298590696073848, "adjustedSOG": 2.298150794130782, "reductionPct": 0.019137898009291554, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6158627202922115, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6158627202922115, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6151295503871017, "afterRecentZones": 0.6158627202922115, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6151295503871017, "adjusted": 0.6151295503871017, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9988095238095238, "oldChartFactor": 1.0191456136140014, "newChartFactor": 1.0191456136140014, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 23.216666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9944488764791916, "defenseRecentMinutes": 250.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6826014479609492, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6826014479609492, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6826014479609492, "afterRecentZones": 0.6826014479609492, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6826014479609492, "adjusted": 0.6826014479609492, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0337628969448793, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.85, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.298150794130782, "adjustedSOG": 2.2521877782481665, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15267175572519084, "goalHistoryGoals": 20, "goalHistoryShots": 131, "goalExpected": 0.2617667080285657, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2617667080285657, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23030943460666042, "goalProbability": 0.23030943460666042, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856259386871632, "modelSOG": 2.2521877782481665, "historyGames": 86, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 82, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 136.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15441176470588236, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14345872621555777, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": 0.6381871204667107, "index": 100.63818712046671, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.885496183206107, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5463769378378345, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 39.77099236641221, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8073982386613778, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.244274809160306, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.680836722982804, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.328244274809162, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.725548944477652, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.63358778625954, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.615544587704406, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.137404580152672, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.560104944052469, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -23.70770550858866, "index": 76.29229449141134, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.346194998870715, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705888, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.100835439312334, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.081438495095142, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.922490406123885, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 81.96078431372548, "opponentDeltaPct": -30.369056655623154, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": -25.634717366314106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.6381871204667107, "zonePPFit": -23.70770550858866, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484984", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479973", "goalieName": "Stuart Skinner", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 134, "goalsAgainst": 15, "savePct": 0.8880597014925373, "gaa": 2.9883785279468733, "gsax": -2.7350000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020556", "date": "20251220", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 20, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3338, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.462 }, { "gameId": "2024020995", "date": "20250306", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3884, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.34 }, { "gameId": "2023020660", "date": "20240113", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 24, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3692, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.831 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 30, "goalsAgainst": 6, "seconds": 3556, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.631 }, { "gameId": "2022020381", "date": "20221203", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 33, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.001 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.205509665668508, "trialBefore6040": 2.205509665668508, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.205509665668508, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.085377358490566, "attemptProjection": 3.5115509780157557, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1393.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.608333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.45361081687332544, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0455191268881834, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.038863573231204 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 212.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.433333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.3773584905660377, "onNet": 0.5076979061695218, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.092875987712122, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0204088262285496 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6158627202922115, "ppAdjusted": 0.6826014479609492, "other": 1.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.798464168253161, "baseline": 1.548780487804878, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.2521877782481665, "adjustedSOG": 2.2521877782481665 } }, { "id": "8485366", "name": "Matthew Schaefer", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 4.1, "priorSOG": 2.6951219512195124, "currentTOI": 26.208333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 20.855, "ppShare": 0.803776129467296, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 41, "currentPPTOI": 3.9733333333333336, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.5559999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.25559999999999994, "priorTOI": 24.682723577235773, "priorPPTOI": 3.1260162601626016, "deploymentChange": 1.525609756097559, "ppTOIChange": 0.847317073170732, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 26.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08219631065392793, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 262.0, "goalExpected": 0.2355207890103614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2355207890103614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20984076379048736, "goalProbability": 0.20984076379048736, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.8653450153252895, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.357228482378327, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.855, "Current_PP_Share": 0.803776129467296, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.56745785569791, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0008691854490648, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2384, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.499100816848309, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.830949284785437, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.76138211382114, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.682015715628714, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9046721929163526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.41340782122905, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7706330512658707, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.357228482378327, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.040268456375839, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 26.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 21.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "goalHistoryGoals": 23, "goalHistoryShots": 253, "goalExpected": 0.26178294118434814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26178294118434814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23032192901210063, "goalProbability": 0.23032192901210063, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05755064456721915, "modelSOG": 2.8653450153252895, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 262.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0916030534351145, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08219631065392793, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.1646043115707063, "adjustedSOG": 3.1438940260316977, "reductionPct": 0.654435231074102, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.8936751933566485, "afterPlayerForm": 2.8936751933566485, "afterRecentDefense": 2.8896845706668577, "afterRecentZones": 2.8936751933566485, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.8896845706668577, "adjusted": 2.8896845706668577, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.997073626689675, "oldChartFactor": 0.7706330512658707, "newChartFactor": 0.7706330512658707, "playerRecentAttempts": 37.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 108.51666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0939616979549402, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9863073610550396, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4839173584481877, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4533908385729636, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4839173584481877, "afterRecentZones": 0.4839173584481877, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4839173584481877, "adjusted": 0.4533908385729636, "playerFactor": 0.9369179068650985, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.716666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6297548605240914, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.1438940260316977, "adjustedSOG": 3.0810161455110636, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 62.892272891237226, "btb": { "id": "8485366", "name": "Matthew Schaefer", "score": 62.892272891237226, "components": { "Goal model": 78.4090909090909, "SOG model": 95.45454545454545, "Unit attack": 65.51724137931035, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 61.8421052631579, "Shot quality": 77.8409090909091, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.11801242236025, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.66291868682446, "unitPlayers": [ "Logan Stanley", "Matthew Schaefer" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 32 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 46, "priorAttempts": 195, "fitPct": -7.645564957804311, "index": 92.35443504219569, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.47714604236344, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 110 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.034559643255296, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.624303232998885, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.762541806020067, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.691192865105908, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.41025641025641024, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": -10.519343033467862, "index": 89.48065696653214, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.29976580796254, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.106714786924996, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.227166276346605, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.8563137552068, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.443646134526404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.278688524590164, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.51218437030424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.882903981264638, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.65398190089725, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 22.999748667007708, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.645564957804311, "zonePPFit": -10.519343033467862, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8485366", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 3.67879492038299, "trialBefore6040": 3.67879492038299, "trialBeforeShotChart": 3.67879492038299, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.55083951449764, "attemptProjection": 3.4043455891120327, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 65.0, "sog": 36.0, "seconds": 12513.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.855, "projectedAttempts": 6.500000000000001, "onNet": 0.4867989918084436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2384.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.56745785569791, "projectedAttempts": 1.8392447741065407, "onNet": 0.3784395680947405, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.8936751933566485, "ppAdjusted": 0.4839173584481877, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.477592551804836, "baseline": 2.6951219512195124, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 9, "beforeSOG": 3.0810161455110636, "adjustedSOG": 2.8653450153252895 } }, { "id": "8485388", "name": "Victor Eklund", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 13.794999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 12.475, "ppShare": 0.21308159136884694, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 15, "currentPPTOI": 1.0533333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.704, "currentIXG": 0.27040000000000003, "priorTOI": 15.5, "priorPPTOI": 2.4833333333333334, "deploymentChange": -1.7050000000000018, "ppTOIChange": -1.4300000000000002, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 220, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22, "mostAllowedRank": 32, "fiveSogAllowed60": 19.770099259815126, "pkSogAllowed60": 34.57046457305995, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 60, "C": 105, "R": 25, "L": 30 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 3, "R": 2.5, "D": 6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1355439587971867, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.20964381464131898, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20964381464131898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18912698436471043, "goalProbability": 0.18912698436471043, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 1.5466850496450917, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.25250501002004, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.39240506329114, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21308159136884694, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.6825, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2108361429534729, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.8846798529964807, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 632, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2966, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.795918367346939, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.25, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5417989605690265, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.75, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.25250501002004, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.39240506329114, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "goalHistoryGoals": 2, "goalHistoryShots": 14, "goalExpected": 0.27406940848735445, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27406940848735445, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23972069640692686, "goalProbability": 0.23972069640692686, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858643179270843, "modelSOG": 1.5466850496450917, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17647058823529413, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1355439587971867, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6083669809640986, "adjustedSOG": 1.5782500506582569, "reductionPct": 1.8725160776297933, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1528638315916506, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1528638315916506, "afterRecentDefense": 1.102668947748581, "afterRecentZones": 1.1528638315916506, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.102668947748581, "adjusted": 1.102668947748581, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9127566867989646, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2999418195712016, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5917844166330237, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1944144700151801, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1944144700151801, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1944144700151801, "afterRecentZones": 0.1944144700151801, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1944144700151801, "adjusted": 0.1944144700151801, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9934850185648908, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.7333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.926829268292683, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9582987895871332, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.6, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5782500506582569, "adjustedSOG": 1.5466850496450917, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 60.90541037909459, "btb": { "id": "8485388", "name": "Victor Eklund", "score": 60.90541037909459, "components": { "Goal model": 70.45454545454545, "SOG model": 62.5, "Unit attack": 92.3076923076923, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 39.473684210526315, "Shot quality": 80.11363636363636, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4508720549148446, "unitPlayers": [ "Emil Heineman", "Brayden Schenn", "Victor Eklund" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 36 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-islanders/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-23T13:55:33.194Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": -8.738391617342387, "index": 91.26160838265761, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.301042335944928, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.393601393944323, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.448830161955669, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.564538054637694, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 47.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.474466143511265, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.03413654400552, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 4 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -8.738391617342387, "zonePPFit": null, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8485388", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479979", "goalieName": "Jake Oettinger", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 146, "goalsAgainst": 9, "savePct": 0.9383561643835616, "gaa": 1.802704056084126, "gsax": 7.068, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 25, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3411, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.423 }, { "gameId": "2025020310", "date": "20251118", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3462, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.859 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 37, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.007 }, { "gameId": "2024020032", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 34, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.126 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "shotsAgainst": 28, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.653 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 1.2782283878370324, "trialBefore6040": 1.2782283878370324, "trialBeforeShotChart": 1.2782283878370324, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3004197572488199, "attemptProjection": 1.3941368459648418, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 7485.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.475, "projectedAttempts": 2.9, "onNet": 0.48036196111434054, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9275500897337209, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9292670484322251 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 632.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2108361429534729, "projectedAttempts": 0.45981119352663524, "onNet": 0.5074127985336137, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9752528036205411 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1528638315916506, "ppAdjusted": 0.1944144700151801, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3472783016068308, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 67, "beforeSOG": 1.5466850496450917, "adjustedSOG": 1.5466850496450917 } }, { "id": "8485391", "name": "Anton Frondell", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 3, "currentTOI": 17.066666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.040000000000001, "ppShare": 0.40772200772200773, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T16:42:42.456Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 17, "currentPPTOI": 1.7600000000000002, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.7990000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.1799, "priorTOI": 17.693055555555556, "priorPPTOI": 3.2291666666666665, "deploymentChange": -0.62638888888889, "ppTOIChange": -1.4691666666666663, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "FLA", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 267, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.272727272727273, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.874580367933397, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.31370608609599, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.18181818181818, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 85, "C": 83, "L": 54, "R": 45 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.545454545454546, "L": 4.909090909090909, "R": 4.090909090909091, "D": 7.7272727272727275 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 8, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.625, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionSourceDifference": 0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11020815060197271, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 53.0, "goalExpected": 0.23356271329400097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24124333853861327, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20829205642968993, "goalProbability": 0.21434957590021508, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6057519470525158, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.1192871127792996, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.9815950920245395, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.040000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.40772200772200773, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.220454545454546, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1284942084942085, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.925116490977697, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9788831280124327, "Position_Factor": 0.9872046446469672, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1056, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2590, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.251644736842104, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.511111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7461843856979838, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.89531144211239, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.430167597765363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7860899038050988, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9815950920245395, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Jordan Greenway" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.129058005266859, "adjustedSOG": 2.1192871127792996, "reductionPct": 0.45893030924419875, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.147461823452847, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1396736210312215, "afterRecentDefense": 1.147461823452847, "afterRecentZones": 1.147461823452847, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.147461823452847, "adjusted": 1.1396736210312215, "playerFactor": 0.9932126696832579, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7860899038050988, "newChartFactor": 0.7848526862651964, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9558170786333835, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1595237698035354, "defenseRecentMinutes": 226.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3009681853252508, "afterPlayerForm": 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "goalHistoryGoals": 4, "goalHistoryShots": 52, "goalExpected": 0.207367165187448, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.207367165187448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18727880772962083, "goalProbability": 0.18727880772962083, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861847042101826, "modelSOG": 2.1192871127792996, "historyGames": 22, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 53.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07547169811320754, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11020815060197271, "goalieFactor": 1.032884637861456, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 56.246514450461824, "btb": { "id": "8485391", "name": "Anton Frondell", "score": 56.246514450461824, "components": { "Goal model": 77.8409090909091, "SOG model": 84.0909090909091, "Unit attack": 20.512820512820515, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 31.578947368421055, "Shot quality": 61.93181818181818, "Goalie": 75.71428571428571, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; 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neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.677017264173463, "unitPlayers": [ "Yakov Trenin", "Danila Yurov", "Maxim Shabanov" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 61 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:59:59.122Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 12.332009259658946, "index": 112.33200925965895, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.915966386554622, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.3640320615159425, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.066082898389666, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.26890756302521, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.115416977768987, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.168067226890756, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.876008455584383, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.756302521008404, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.643428707708097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.46218487394958, "opponentDeltaPct": 33.54090799378474, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": 9.981863664859517, "index": 109.98186366485952, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.942947372699919, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": 42.6952745479538, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.636363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.753289663167038, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 44.99999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.302076633964219, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.161365347209198, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.731528087557408, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.332009259658946, "zonePPFit": 9.981863664859517, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482447", "goalieName": "Leevi Merilainen", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8485702", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; 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Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.9783815048102694, "trialBefore6040": 0.9783815048102694, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.9783815048102694, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9243568497920462, "attemptProjection": 0.9020256124097357, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7255.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.091666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.8, "onNet": 0.5068026799535604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8973263261758417, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0270668796651814 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 645.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3523182348367029, "projectedAttempts": 0.12579704510108863, "onNet": 0.5348434069108979, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9131296441331683, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9975737939322031 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8290835496601348, "ppAdjusted": 0.08410768144075617, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.913191231100891, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 141, "beforeSOG": 0.905940322119843, "adjustedSOG": 0.905940322119843 } }, { "id": "8486171", "name": "T.J. Hughes", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.272727272727273, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.692424242424243, "currentFiveTOI": 10.487878787878786, "ppShare": 0.7286775631500743, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 25, "currentPPTOI": 3.7151515151515153, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.547, "currentIXG": 0.23154545454545455, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 301, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.1, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.98914841527162, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.8561736770692, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 82, "C": 111, "R": 59, "L": 49 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.1, "L": 4.9, "R": 5.9, "D": 8.2 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11888346969576614, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.251623780083806, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.251623780083806, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2224627919677725, "goalProbability": 0.2224627919677725, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 2.116558178590637, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.281132620629876, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.213703099510603, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.487878787878786, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7286775631500743, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.005909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6476936377144398, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0455984111983663, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.893564853136964, "Position_Factor": 0.9966886859648443, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2452, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0352762290927522, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.511173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1988029828179128, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0639909118882978, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507448829205312, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.281132620629876, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.213703099510603, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2576483787557295, "adjustedSOG": 2.1597532434598334, "reductionPct": 4.336155099132377, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4437840186874769, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3686388841649875, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4422450951186305, "afterRecentZones": 1.4430223778489566, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4414842661100118, "adjusted": 1.366458827618622, "playerFactor": 0.9479526483533162, "defenseFactor": 0.9989341040287694, "oldChartFactor": 1.1988029828179128, "newChartFactor": 1.1975553268676524, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6175532508085201, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9950752922127964, "defenseRecentMinutes": 259.01666666666665, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6320461782500713, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6320461782500713, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6114762340230298, "afterRecentZones": 0.6320461782500713, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6114762340230298, "adjusted": 0.6114762340230298, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9461349008591247, "oldChartFactor": 1.0639909118882978, "newChartFactor": 1.0639909118882978, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1351851851851853, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.612342396610099, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.883333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1597532434598334, "adjustedSOG": 2.116558178590637, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860433711970767, "modelSOG": 2.116558178590637, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 25.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11888346969576614, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 62.3044335050914, "btb": { "id": "8486171", "name": "T.J. Hughes", "score": 62.3044335050914, "components": { "Goal model": 82.95454545454545, "SOG model": 83.52272727272727, "Unit attack": 58.97435897435897, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.26315789473684, "Shot quality": 76.13636363636364, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.492702180068673, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 34 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T00:39:08.716Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 6.626766093930428, "index": 106.62676609393043, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.809523809523807, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.839860756073634, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5615151958774618, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6956047696223067, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.981879990337575, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.260136913933934, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.511501528305146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 2.1330303962765953, "index": 102.1330303962766, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.8206940149173647, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.1518207534541318, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 72.72727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.364849577425616, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.52211484997501, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -27.0894821626203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -17.458199537716766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.626766093930428, "zonePPFit": 2.1330303962765953, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8486171", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481020", "goalieName": "Justus Annunen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "savePct": 0.925, "gaa": 3.049124788255223, "gsax": 0.4750000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 40, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3542, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.475 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 2.223619879303574, "trialBefore6040": 2.223619879303574, "trialBeforeShotChart": 2.223619879303574, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.409212323872221, "attemptProjection": 2.1060844336392384, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 6922.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.487878787878786, "projectedAttempts": 2.727272727272727, "onNet": 0.4868574366004113, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.077239359349702, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9955121386140012 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2452.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.6476936377144398, "projectedAttempts": 1.0711009050384979, "onNet": 0.5548434051744378, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.85, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9904687495231324 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4437840186874769, "ppAdjusted": 0.6320461782500713, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2576483787557295, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 34, "beforeSOG": 2.116558178590637, "adjustedSOG": 2.116558178590637 } }, { "id": "8486189", "name": "Vitali Pinchuk", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.023333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 6.836666666666666, "ppShare": 0.2328767123287671, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25T14:32:32.549Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 4, "currentPPTOI": 1.1333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.359, "currentIXG": 0.0718, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 307, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.90909090909091, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.664105175446718, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.4012474012474, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.36363636363637, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 118, "R": 64, "L": 47, "D": 78 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.727272727272727, "L": 4.2727272727272725, "R": 5.818181818181818, "D": 7.090909090909091 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12365207108946188, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.07479492243901643, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07479492243901643, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07206623478975485, "goalProbability": 0.07206623478975485, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": 0.6048820838989631, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.2657240370550955, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.836666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2328767123287671, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.58719696969697, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0682513491075136, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0405027470031587, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.993145734040892, "Position_Factor": 1.0151429547304047, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-24", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 340, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1460, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9228114880288792, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.011173184357542, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9901491279877273, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9340558045770608, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9137209901688518, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9276535376718411, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.2657240370550955, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-24" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last 0 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vitali Pinchuk", "Alex Kerfoot", "Nils Hoglander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-24", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6281962617368624, "adjustedSOG": 0.6048820838989631, "reductionPct": 3.7112888531745214, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.49319395873101635, "afterPlayerForm": 0.49319395873101635, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4704109547068119, "afterRecentZones": 0.49265349368095146, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4698954563401229, "adjusted": 0.4698954563401229, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9538051843075595, "oldChartFactor": 0.9901491279877273, "newChartFactor": 0.9881968872644014, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 34.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7837643119632204, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13500230300584604, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13500230300584604, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13500230300584604, "afterRecentZones": 0.1349866275588402, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1349866275588402, "adjusted": 0.1349866275588402, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9340558045770608, "newChartFactor": 0.9338883522585624, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2181237612860603, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6048820838989631, "adjustedSOG": 0.6048820838989631, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12355944386087889, "goalHistoryGoals": 0, "goalHistoryShots": 4, "goalExpected": 0.12668471613138302, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12668471613138302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11898860250453579, "goalProbability": 0.11898860250453579, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859815393304036, "modelSOG": 0.6048820838989631, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12365207108946188, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 41.12106643356643, "btb": { "id": "8486189", "name": "Vitali Pinchuk", "score": 41.12106643356643, "components": { "Goal model": 27.272727272727273, "SOG model": 3.977272727272727, "Unit attack": 46.15384615384615, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 33.52272727272727, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.323519244510009, "unitPlayers": [ "Vitali Pinchuk", "Alex Kerfoot", "Nils Hoglander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 139 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -0.32836240040909104, "index": 99.67163759959091, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.26249506727522487, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.390567357409836, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.4073113442491234, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.523990973401993, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.3201124437954377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.08993976236770607, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -2.1981398474313067, "index": 97.8018601525687, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9781561131036227, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1531297096742747, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.1981398474313067, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.514160746521682, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 18.299550156777173, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": -42.996873533494465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.32836240040909104, "zonePPFit": -2.1981398474313067, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8486189", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475809", "goalieName": "Scott Wedgewood", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 7, "shotsAgainst": 106, "goalsAgainst": 11, "savePct": 0.8962264150943396, "gaa": 2.551546391752577, "gsax": -1.151, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3555, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.889 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 31, "goalsAgainst": 3, "seconds": 3740, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.047 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 17, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3544, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.748 }, { "gameId": "2023020847", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 7, "goalsAgainst": 0, "seconds": 1200, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.162 }, { "gameId": "2023020614", "date": "20240106", "goalieTeam": "DAL", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 22, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3481, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.003 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "trialBeforeCurrent15": 0.8238133387683403, "trialBefore6040": 0.8238133387683403, "trialBeforeShotChart": 0.8238133387683403, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7231091487699526, "attemptProjection": 0.5332833747037721, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261024", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2051.0, "expectedMinutes": 6.836666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 0.7999999999999999, "onNet": 0.5270848562378168, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0545130159642595, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9853842633069035 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 340.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0682513491075136, "projectedAttempts": 0.18851494396014945, "onNet": 0.5348434069108979, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9750660382798708, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9676139935909333 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.49319395873101635, "ppAdjusted": 0.13500230300584604, "other": 0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6281962617368624, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 170, "beforeSOG": 0.6048820838989631, "adjustedSOG": 0.6048820838989631 } }, { "id": "8474102", "name": "David Perron", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-25", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020077", "date": "20251018", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.45 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.33044533009877, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.98860723440615, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77, "D": 61, "R": 64, "L": 53 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.3, "R": 6.4, "D": 6.1 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 1 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020077", "date": "20251018", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 1, "attempts": 1, "toi": 12.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "David Perron", "Radek Faksa", "Colin Blackwell" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October25 projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858556759336173, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 65 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 164.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available October 23 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 157, "goalsAgainst": 10, "savePct": 0.9363057324840764, "gaa": 1.9563090968373003, "gsax": 4.577, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021141", "date": "20260326", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 27, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3600, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.623 }, { "gameId": "2024020913", "date": "20250223", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 29, "goalsAgainst": 4, "seconds": 3487, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.261 }, { "gameId": "2023020924", "date": "20240226", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 32, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3774, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.288 }, { "gameId": "2023020721", "date": "20240121", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 43, "goalsAgainst": 2, "seconds": 3641, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.689 }, { "gameId": "2022020653", "date": "20230110", "goalieTeam": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "shotsAgainst": 26, "goalsAgainst": 1, "seconds": 3900, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.716 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478009", "goalieName": "Ilya Sorokin", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474102", "goals": 1, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020077", "date": "20251018" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020943", "date": "20240229" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2023020134", "date": "20231030" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020989", "date": "20230304" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020780", "date": "20230127" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "sogBlend": null, "performanceAdjustment": null, "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-25-2026", "availabilityCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:16:37.457847+00:00", "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null } }, { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": 1.9268292682926829, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": 18.227032520325203, "priorPPTOI": 1.5235772357723578, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021226", "date": "20260405", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021212", "date": "20260404", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3, "goals": 1, "attempts": 4, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020220", "date": "20251106", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 20.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020876", "date": "20250208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 2, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020779", "date": "20250125", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2, "goals": 0, "attempts": 7, "toi": 22.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; 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DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861377815140923, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 321.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 45.87381916329285, "btb": { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "score": 45.87381916329285, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 17.94871794871795, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 40.78947368421053, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9850467848363984, "unitPlayers": [ "Isak Rosen", "Adam Lowry", "Dawson Mercer" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 108 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": -0.742914692668208, "index": 99.25708530733179, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.46917450365726, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.578591911525422, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.822361546499478, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.823680465394347, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.1828631138976, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6797948321129752, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.047021943573668, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.9579234295986936, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.912225705329153, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.1762474232616995, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.566353187042842, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.71780161347779, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": -3.3888087765997454, "index": 96.61119122340025, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.793892462515913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 54.46808510638298, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.634400194312789, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.87234042553192, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.270093404731995, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5531914893617023, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3810521792056392, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.274557339251203, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0, "opponentDeltaPct": 75.07289830904617, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.742914692668208, "zonePPFit": -3.3888087765997454, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available October 23 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482110", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025021226", "date": "20260405" } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "sogBlend": null, "performanceAdjustment": null, "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null } }, { "id": "8483510", "name": "Elias Salomonsson", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-24T22:52:24.282Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 25 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.65 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 258, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.8, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.57021517553794, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.24236983842011, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 84, "D": 66, "R": 61, "L": 47 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.4, "L": 4.7, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.8, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-24", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last 2 available meetings through October 24", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020895", "date": "20260204", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0, "goals": 0, "attempts": 3, "toi": 17.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020422", "date": "20251203", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1, "goals": 0, "attempts": 1, "toi": 11.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Elias Salomonsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff projected chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-20", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-24", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-24", "shotChart": "2026-10-24", "goalie": "2026-10-24" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057780831329440056, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 32, "seasonGames": { "2025": 32 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 37.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "btbScore": 49.827586206896555, "btb": { "id": "8483510", "name": "Elias Salomonsson", "score": 49.827586206896555, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 48.275862068965516, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Defense-specific exposure unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Defense-specific exposure unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.274679606204752, "unitPlayers": [ "Mario Ferraro", "Elias Salomonsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 80 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T17:15:27.062012+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-24. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available October 23 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "historicalCoverage": "Saved MoneyPuck regular-season appearances; relief appearances included. Career completeness not independently established." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483510", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through October24, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked shot events; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets.", "coverageNote": "Observed attempts only; missing encounters are unavailable, not a zero scoring rate. Career completeness is not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24" }, "sogBlend": null, "performanceAdjustment": null, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null } } ], "games": [ { "away": "FLA", "home": "CHI", "awayName": "Florida Panthers", "homeName": "Chicago Blackhawks", "date": "2026-10-25T19:00Z", "eventId": "401892578" }, { "away": "NYI", "home": "DAL", "awayName": "New York Islanders", "homeName": "Dallas Stars", "date": "2026-10-25T22:00Z", "eventId": "401892579" }, { "away": "MTL", "home": "WPG", "awayName": "Montreal Canadiens", "homeName": "Winnipeg Jets", "date": "2026-10-25T23:00Z", "eventId": "401891807" }, { "away": "COL", "home": "NSH", "awayName": "Colorado Avalanche", "homeName": "Nashville Predators", "date": "2026-10-26T00:00Z", "eventId": "401892580" }, { "away": "MIN", "home": "VAN", "awayName": "Minnesota Wild", "homeName": "Vancouver Canucks", "date": "2026-10-26T02:00Z", "eventId": "401892581" } ], "teamStats": [ { "id": "FLA", "name": "FLA", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 11, "sogFor": 28.09090909090909, "sogAllowed": 24.272727272727273, "xgFor": 3.2430909090909092, "xgAllowed": 2.992636363636364, "fiveAllowed": 21.874580367933397, "pkAllowed": 46.31370608609599, "ppMinutes": 7.3530303030303035, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "CHI", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 10, "sogFor": 21.4, "sogAllowed": 30.3, "xgFor": 2.6053, "xgAllowed": 3.4433999999999996, "fiveAllowed": 28.905376562658805, "pkAllowed": 50.93075204765451, "ppMinutes": 4.316666666666666, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "NYI", "name": "NYI", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 10, "sogFor": 26.7, "sogAllowed": 25.5, "xgFor": 2.9838, "xgAllowed": 3.3054, "fiveAllowed": 23.33044533009877, "pkAllowed": 39.98860723440615, "ppMinutes": 4.943333333333333, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "DAL", "name": "DAL", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 10, "sogFor": 26.7, "sogAllowed": 22, "xgFor": 3.0681000000000003, "xgAllowed": 2.6900999999999997, "fiveAllowed": 19.770099259815126, "pkAllowed": 34.57046457305995, "ppMinutes": 4.576666666666666, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "MTL", "name": "MTL", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 10, "sogFor": 29.5, "sogAllowed": 25.8, "xgFor": 3.3629000000000007, "xgAllowed": 3.344, "fiveAllowed": 23.57021517553794, "pkAllowed": 45.24236983842011, "ppMinutes": 4.225, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "WPG", "name": "WPG", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 10, "sogFor": 26.5, "sogAllowed": 30, "xgFor": 2.9585, "xgAllowed": 3.3731999999999998, "fiveAllowed": 28.398569375271585, "pkAllowed": 53.12621359223301, "ppMinutes": 4.286666666666667, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "COL", "name": "COL", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 11, "sogFor": 30, "sogAllowed": 27.90909090909091, "xgFor": 3.356272727272727, "xgAllowed": 2.8000000000000003, "fiveAllowed": 27.664105175446718, "pkAllowed": 47.4012474012474, "ppMinutes": 5.098484848484849, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "NSH", "name": "NSH", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "games": 10, "sogFor": 24.9, "sogAllowed": 30.1, "xgFor": 3.0059000000000005, "xgAllowed": 3.3887, "fiveAllowed": 27.98914841527162, "pkAllowed": 37.8561736770692, "ppMinutes": 4.801666666666667, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "MIN", "name": "MIN", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 12, "sogFor": 30.916666666666668, "sogAllowed": 25.583333333333332, "xgFor": 3.998999999999999, "xgAllowed": 2.8320833333333333, "fiveAllowed": 23.076259737273276, "pkAllowed": 47.82608695652174, "ppMinutes": 4.233333333333333, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "VAN", "name": "VAN", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 12, "sogFor": 20.083333333333332, "sogAllowed": 33.583333333333336, "xgFor": 2.319083333333333, "xgAllowed": 3.95675, "fiveAllowed": 32.526423457211045, "pkAllowed": 67.14490674318508, "ppMinutes": 4.829166666666667, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalieStats": [ { "id": "8473575", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8985507246376812, "gaa": 2.2493974828171024, "gsax": 4.087, "gsax60": 1.3133267874676424, "shotsAgainst": 69, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8474593", "name": "Jacob Markstrom", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.2058823529411766, "gsax": 1.4000000000000021, "gsax60": 0.25735294117647095, "shotsAgainst": 117, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475717", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "gsax60": -2.18, "shotsAgainst": 25, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475809", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "gsax60": -0.06648291069459775, "shotsAgainst": 91, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8477424", "name": "Juuse Saros", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.908, "gaa": 2.819875353335831, "gsax": 3.0380000000000003, "gsax60": 0.3724687531927937, "shotsAgainst": 250, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478009", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "gsax60": 1.1238779174147222, "shotsAgainst": 183, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478406", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "gsax60": -0.18957359299750426, "shotsAgainst": 214, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479193", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9245283018867925, "gaa": 1.9448946515397083, "gsax": 0.835, "gsax60": 0.4059967585089141, "shotsAgainst": 53, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479973", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "gsax60": 0.6968785404539591, "shotsAgainst": 215, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479979", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "gsax60": 1.2870178803863803, "shotsAgainst": 165, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8480947", "name": "Kevin Lankinen", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8080808080808081, "gaa": 6.172449578125705, "gsax": -12.062999999999999, "gsax60": -1.9594278752876413, "shotsAgainst": 198, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481020", "name": "Justus Annunen", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "gsax60": -1.494, "shotsAgainst": 31, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481033", "name": "Akira Schmid", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "gsax60": -0.7336018003079472, "shotsAgainst": 128, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481519", "name": "Spencer Knight", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "gsax60": -0.1781891854128827, "shotsAgainst": 250, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482447", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "gsax60": 0.37425999903739715, "shotsAgainst": 204, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482487", "name": "Jakub Dobes", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8472222222222222, "gaa": 4.472302219210571, "gsax": -6.1960000000000015, "gsax60": -1.2595629341013048, "shotsAgainst": 144, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482661", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "games": 11, "savePct": 0.9184397163120568, "gaa": 2.0785741182377304, "gsax": 7.963999999999999, "gsax60": 0.7197288816367514, "shotsAgainst": 282, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482821", "name": "Arvid Soderblom", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.8200000000000001, "gaa": 4.582095884599067, "gsax": -2.8499999999999996, "gsax60": -1.4509970301230375, "shotsAgainst": 50, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483532", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8928571428571429, "gaa": 3.083365055196041, "gsax": -0.5040000000000013, "gsax60": -0.17266844309097876, "shotsAgainst": 84, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483575", "name": "Matt Murray", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 1.8475750577367205, "gsax": 0.8300000000000001, "gsax60": 0.7667436489607391, "shotsAgainst": 20, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8484170", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "gsax60": 0.6390348987505385, "shotsAgainst": 111, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8484900", "name": "Cooper Black", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.85, "gaa": 3.153284671532847, "gsax": -1.009, "gsax60": -1.0605547445255474, "shotsAgainst": 20, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalies": { "FLA": { "id": "8481033", "team": "FLA", "name": "Akira Schmid", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8671875, "gaa": 3.6243041572900627, "gsax": -3.440999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.559000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 128, "scenarioFactor": 1.032884637861456, "factor": 1.032884637861456, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "CHI": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.888, "gaa": 3.5210283638395974, "gsax": -1.4170000000000016, "goalsAllowed": 28, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.583, "shotsAgainst": 250, "scenarioFactor": 1.0150111712545056, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter reports differ: Daily Faceoff lists Knight; NHL.com projects Soderblom. Awaiting confirmation." }, "NYI": { "id": "8478009", "team": "NYI", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9344262295081968, "gaa": 1.7235188509874326, "gsax": 7.825000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 12, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.825000000000003, "shotsAgainst": 183, "scenarioFactor": 0.9364245206077043, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "The newer timed report expects Sorokin; NHL.com projected Varlamov. Confirmation pending." }, "DAL": { "id": "8479979", "team": "DAL", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9393939393939394, "gaa": 1.2331300952250464, "gsax": 10.436999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.436999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 165, "scenarioFactor": 0.9147733405696076, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "MTL": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9099099099099099, "gaa": 1.938819474364498, "gsax": 3.2959999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 10, "xGoalsAgainst": 13.296, "shotsAgainst": 111, "scenarioFactor": 0.9724311257077198, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "WPG": { "id": "8479973", "team": "WPG", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9116279069767442, "gaa": 2.672188147048482, "gsax": 4.954999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 19, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.955, "shotsAgainst": 215, "scenarioFactor": 0.9626707914529099, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "COL": { "id": "8475809", "team": "COL", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.2010000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 8, "xGoalsAgainst": 7.7989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 91, "scenarioFactor": 1.0031451632626038, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "NSH": { "id": "8481020", "team": "NSH", "name": "Justus Annunen", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8064516129032258, "gaa": 6, "gsax": -1.4939999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 6, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.506, "shotsAgainst": 31, "scenarioFactor": 1.015286529873013, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Listed candidate; final starter unconfirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "MIN": { "id": "8475717", "team": "MIN", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5, "gsax": -2.18, "goalsAllowed": 5, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.82, "shotsAgainst": 25, "scenarioFactor": 1.022041221640643, "factor": 1.022041221640643, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Confirmed starter.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "VAN": { "id": "8482447", "team": "VAN", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T17:23:43.782320+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-25", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.9455648072387737, "gsax": 2.16, "goalsAllowed": 17, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.16, "shotsAgainst": 204, "scenarioFactor": 0.9843348992187739, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "note": "Likely starter; confirmation pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } }, 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Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. 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Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "MTL": { "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 29.703340755022182, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 27.64722536806342, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.398569375271585, "teamMinutes": 47.093333333333334, "opponentMinutes": 49.861666666666665, "expectedMinutes": 48.4775, "matchupSOG60": 28.022897371667504, "shots": 22.641333455583524 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 36.92307692307692, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 53.12621359223301, "teamMinutes": 4.225, "opponentMinutes": 4.291666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 4.258333333333333, "matchupSOG60": 45.02464525765497, "shots": 3.195499128703012 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 9.23313670171839, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 5.598755832037325, "teamMinutes": 6.498333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 4.286666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.3925, "matchupSOG60": 7.4159462668778575, "shots": 0.6665081707356475 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 4.2, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.2, "shots": 3.2 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "WPG": { "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 26.127274848765726, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.149580506066783, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.57021517553794, "teamMinutes": 49.861666666666665, "opponentMinutes": 47.093333333333334, "expectedMinutes": 48.4775, "matchupSOG60": 24.35989784080236, "shots": 19.681782459624937 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 44.7900466562986, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.24236983842011, "teamMinutes": 4.286666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 6.498333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 5.3925, "matchupSOG60": 45.01620824735936, "shots": 4.045831716231422 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 12.58252427184466, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.36094674556213, "teamMinutes": 4.291666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 4.225, "expectedMinutes": 4.258333333333333, "matchupSOG60": 11.971735508703395, "shots": 0.8496606729093659 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.5, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.6, "shots": 1.55 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "COL": { "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 30.028114652596095, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.55291176742894, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.98914841527162, "teamMinutes": 49.095454545454544, "opponentMinutes": 50.376666666666665, "expectedMinutes": 49.736060606060605, "matchupSOG60": 28.271030091350283, "shots": 23.434827766986015 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 55.63150074294205, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 37.8561736770692, "teamMinutes": 5.098484848484849, "opponentMinutes": 4.913333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 5.005909090909091, "matchupSOG60": 46.74383721000562, "shots": 3.899923327225696 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 4.98960498960499, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.246095105866019, "teamMinutes": 4.372727272727273, "opponentMinutes": 4.801666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 4.58719696969697, "matchupSOG60": 8.117850047735505, "shots": 0.6206362856571119 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.5454545454545454, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.6, "shots": 2.0727272727272728 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NSH": { "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 26.444651810167656, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 21.795804936147686, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.664105175446718, "teamMinutes": 50.376666666666665, "opponentMinutes": 49.095454545454544, "expectedMinutes": 49.736060606060605, "matchupSOG60": 24.729955055797202, "shots": 20.499509057338074 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 43.734814300590074, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.4012474012474, "teamMinutes": 4.801666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.372727272727273, "expectedMinutes": 4.58719696969697, "matchupSOG60": 45.56803085091874, "shots": 3.4838255505732083 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 14.654002713704207, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.768202080237742, "teamMinutes": 4.913333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 5.098484848484849, "expectedMinutes": 5.005909090909091, "matchupSOG60": 13.211102396970976, "shots": 1.1022262931654647 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.9, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 0.8181818181818182, "shots": 1.3590909090909091 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "MIN": { "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 32.234052774878634, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.664232947195952, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 32.526423457211045, "teamMinutes": 48.31805555555556, "opponentMinutes": 48.88333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 48.60069444444444, "matchupSOG60": 30.595328202203497, "shots": 24.782569956379763 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 61.41732283464567, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 67.14490674318508, "teamMinutes": 4.233333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 4.840277777777778, "expectedMinutes": 4.5368055555555555, "matchupSOG60": 64.28111478891537, "shots": 4.860515311527594 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 10.434782608695652, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 12.424503882657463, "teamMinutes": 5.75, "opponentMinutes": 4.829166666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.289583333333333, "matchupSOG60": 11.429643245676559, "shots": 1.0076341736379437 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.5, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 0.6666666666666666, "shots": 1.5833333333333333 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "VAN": { "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 22.794236615643005, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 19.22945789294238, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.076259737273276, "teamMinutes": 48.88333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 48.31805555555556, "expectedMinutes": 48.60069444444444, "matchupSOG60": 21.152858815107827, "shots": 17.134060464992146 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 33.13201035375324, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.82608695652174, "teamMinutes": 4.829166666666667, "opponentMinutes": 5.75, "expectedMinutes": 5.289583333333333, "matchupSOG60": 40.47904865513749, "shots": 3.5686216852567387 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 6.197991391678623, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 9.448818897637794, "teamMinutes": 4.840277777777778, "opponentMinutes": 4.233333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 4.5368055555555555, "matchupSOG60": 7.823405144658208, "shots": 0.5915544653941213 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.25, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.75, "shots": 1.5 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." } }, "goalieSaveModel": { "version": "current-league-500shot-v1", "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "leagueSavePct": 0.8915699763836122, "leagueShots": 9739.0, "leagueGoals": 1056.0, "leagueGoalies": 69, "priorShots": 500, "source": "Saved MoneyPuck current-season all-situation goalie totals", "formula": "(current saves + 500 × current league save rate) / (current shots faced + 500)", "note": "Experimental 500-shot prior, not fitted. Current season only; no prior-season goalie data. Full-game-start scenario; no pull/injury, empty-net, opponent shot-quality or shared-goalie adjustment. Does not alter player SOG or goal estimates." }, "goalieSaveProjections": { "8473575:NYI": { "id": "8473575", "name": "Semyon Varlamov", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.18257003519524, "rawSavePct": 0.8985507246376812, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8924164994583588, "currentShots": 69.0, "currentGoals": 7.0, "currentWeight": 0.12126537785588752, "projectedSaves": 23.365757497632256, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8168125375629867, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8474593:FLA": { "id": "8474593", "name": "Jacob Markstrom", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 22.78017138475611, "rawSavePct": 0.8974358974358975, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8926823147355043, "currentShots": 117.0, "currentGoals": 12.0, "currentWeight": 0.18962722852512157, "projectedSaves": 20.335456121815582, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.444715262940527, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475717:MIN": { "id": "8475717", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "projectedShotsFaced": 22.794236615643005, "rawSavePct": 0.8, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8872095013177259, "currentShots": 25.0, "currentGoals": 5.0, "currentWeight": 0.047619047619047616, "projectedSaves": 20.223263300682877, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.570973314960126, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475809:COL": { "id": "8475809", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.444651810167656, "rawSavePct": 0.9120879120879121, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8947292524396043, "currentShots": 91.0, "currentGoals": 8.0, "currentWeight": 0.15397631133671744, "projectedSaves": 23.660803545136936, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.78384826503072, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8477424:NSH": { "id": "8477424", "name": "Juuse Saros", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.028114652596095, "rawSavePct": 0.908, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8970466509224082, "currentShots": 250.0, "currentGoals": 23.0, "currentWeight": 0.3333333333333333, "projectedSaves": 26.93661968262542, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.091494969970675, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478009:NYI": { "id": "8478009", "name": "Ilya Sorokin", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DAL", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.18257003519524, "rawSavePct": 0.9344262295081968, "adjustedSavePct": 0.903052691349643, "currentShots": 183.0, "currentGoals": 12.0, "currentWeight": 0.2679355783308931, "projectedSaves": 23.64424033673358, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.53832969846166, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478406:COL": { "id": "8478406", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.444651810167656, "rawSavePct": 0.8925233644859814, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8918557257588322, "currentShots": 214.0, "currentGoals": 23.0, "currentWeight": 0.29971988795518206, "projectedSaves": 23.58481413259669, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8598376775709653, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8479193:DAL": { "id": "8479193", "name": "Casey DeSmith", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "projectedShotsFaced": 24.43133872412126, "rawSavePct": 0.9245283018867925, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8947287309074252, "currentShots": 53.0, "currentGoals": 4.0, "currentWeight": 0.09584086799276673, "projectedSaves": 21.859420691002448, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.571918033118812, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8479973:WPG": { "id": "8479973", "name": "Stuart Skinner", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "projectedShotsFaced": 29.703340755022182, "rawSavePct": 0.9116279069767442, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8976013820864422, "currentShots": 215.0, "currentGoals": 19.0, "currentWeight": 0.3006993006993007, "projectedSaves": 26.661759714292458, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.0415810407297244, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8479979:DAL": { "id": "8479979", "name": "Jake Oettinger", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NYI", "projectedShotsFaced": 24.43133872412126, "rawSavePct": 0.9393939393939394, "adjustedSavePct": 0.9034360724688815, "currentShots": 165.0, "currentGoals": 10.0, "currentWeight": 0.24812030075187969, "projectedSaves": 22.072152702077005, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.3591860220442555, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8480947:VAN": { "id": "8480947", "name": "Kevin Lankinen", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "projectedShotsFaced": 32.234052774878634, "rawSavePct": 0.8080808080808081, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8678868025670575, "currentShots": 198.0, "currentGoals": 38.0, "currentWeight": 0.2836676217765043, "projectedSaves": 27.975508996567207, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 4.258543778311428, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8481020:NSH": { "id": "8481020", "name": "Justus Annunen", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.028114652596095, "rawSavePct": 0.8064516129032258, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8866007310580153, "currentShots": 31.0, "currentGoals": 6.0, "currentWeight": 0.0583804143126177, "projectedSaves": 26.622948403285598, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.405166249310496, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8481033:FLA": { "id": "8481033", "name": "Akira Schmid", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "CHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 22.78017138475611, "rawSavePct": 0.8671875, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8866002996684812, "currentShots": 128.0, "currentGoals": 17.0, "currentWeight": 0.20382165605095542, "projectedSaves": 20.196906776224125, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.5832646085319824, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8481519:CHI": { "id": "8481519", "name": "Spencer Knight", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "projectedShotsFaced": 29.155283768714778, "rawSavePct": 0.888, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8903799842557416, "currentShots": 250.0, "currentGoals": 28.0, "currentWeight": 0.3333333333333333, "projectedSaves": 25.95928110295994, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.1960026657548353, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482447:VAN": { "id": "8482447", "name": "Leevi Merilainen", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "projectedShotsFaced": 32.234052774878634, "rawSavePct": 0.9166666666666666, "adjustedSavePct": 0.898842312772452, "currentShots": 204.0, "currentGoals": 17.0, "currentWeight": 0.2897727272727273, "projectedSaves": 28.973330546201186, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.2607222286774498, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482487:MTL": { "id": "8482487", "name": "Jakub Dobes", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WPG", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.127274848765726, "rawSavePct": 0.8472222222222222, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8816537083723699, "currentShots": 144.0, "currentGoals": 22.0, "currentWeight": 0.2236024844720497, "projectedSaves": 23.03520876007845, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.092066088687274, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482661:MIN": { "id": "8482661", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "VAN", "projectedShotsFaced": 22.794236615643005, "rawSavePct": 0.9184397163120568, "adjustedSavePct": 0.9012595756928468, "currentShots": 282.0, "currentGoals": 23.0, "currentWeight": 0.36061381074168797, "projectedSaves": 20.543524020456765, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.250712595186239, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482821:CHI": { "id": "8482821", "name": "Arvid Soderblom", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "FLA", "projectedShotsFaced": 29.155283768714778, "rawSavePct": 0.8200000000000001, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8850636148941929, "currentShots": 50.0, "currentGoals": 9.0, "currentWeight": 0.09090909090909091, "projectedSaves": 25.80428084560469, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.3510029231100873, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8483532:WPG": { "id": "8483532", "name": "Clay Stevenson", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "MTL", "projectedShotsFaced": 29.703340755022182, "rawSavePct": 0.8928571428571429, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8917551167667914, "currentShots": 84.0, "currentGoals": 9.0, "currentWeight": 0.14383561643835616, "projectedSaves": 26.4881061033586, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.2152346516635815, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8483575:NSH": { "id": "8483575", "name": "Matt Murray", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.028114652596095, "rawSavePct": 0.9, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8918942080611656, "currentShots": 20.0, "currentGoals": 2.0, "currentWeight": 0.038461538461538464, "projectedSaves": 26.781901537647077, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.2462131149490183, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-24", "basis": "Full-game start; 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opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false } } }